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MVP - Finals 2023

Not much of a finals series but here's the rub for who did what (statistically) and also a comparison with their entire H&A season rating

The MVP in 2023 goes to Clarry.  May coming in 2nd and Gawn 3rd.

The 2022 Finals MVP went to > Clarry.  Then May in 2nd and Harmes 3rd

And 2021 was > Tracc.  Followed by Clarry & Viney

The combined team rating for both finals (the average of both) a massive 17.5% off the Team's season rating.

A whopping 15.4% off the 2021 finals series team rating of 66.54

We managed to improve on our 2022 finals rating of 55.06 by 4.6%

In the 2021 finals series we almost matched our H&A season rating of 67.23, only missing by a miserly 1% with a 66.54!  That gives you some idea of how well we were traveling.

Of the 25 players that played finals, only 9 of them either matched (for the sake of this argument let's say they got to within 5% or better of their H&A season rating) or bettered their H&A Season Rating.

The nine players were...

Clarry +3.5%, May +32.6%, Gawn + 15.3%, Tomlinson +8%, Hunter -1.7%, Pickett +11.3%, Smith +6.7%, Spargo +3.4% and Hibberd +4.3%

Of the players who played at least one finals game (or two), the five worst player results in terms of missing their H&A season rating from the worst onwards were...

T-Mac -63.5%, Jordan -60.6%, Rivers -48.2%,  Chandler -46.5% & Lever -32.9%

Tracc also posting a pretty ordinary finals rating, missing his H&A rating by a massive 30.4%

Player Rating Rank H&A Season Rating % Change vs Season Rating
C Oliver 5.175 1 5.002 3.46
S May 4.263 2 3.213 32.66
Max Gawn 3.863 3 3.350 15.30
C Petracca 3.275 4 4.707 -30.42
A Tomlinson * 3.150 5 2.915 8.06
Jack Viney 3.063 6 3.707 -17.39
L Hunter 2.888 7 2.939 -1.75
Ed Langdon 2.825 8 3.057 -7.59
M Hibberd 2.723 9 2.610 4.33
J Bowey 2.538 10 2.820 -10.02
C Salem 2.375 11 2.993 -20.65
T Sparrow 2.375 11 2.811 -15.51
K Pickett 2.338 13 2.101 11.26
B Fritsch 2.200 14 2.324 -5.34
A N-Bullen 2.113 15 2.532 -16.57
Jake Lever 2.100 16 3.131 -32.93
J McVee 1.988 17 2.320 -14.33
Joel Smith 1.988 17 1.863 6.68
C Spargo * 1.950 19 1.886 3.39
T Rivers 1.913 20 3.696 -48.25
J Jordon * 1.350 21 3.431 -60.65
K Chandler 1.213 22 2.265 -46.47
T McDonald 0.950 23 2.054 -63.49
B Laurie > 54% * 0.750 24 2.235 -66.44
A Brayshaw < 7% * 0.550 25 3.883 -85.84
Team Rating 57.66   69.86 -17.46
Top 6 22.79   26.25 -13.19
Bottom 6 9.36   9.26 1.11

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

* Played one match (or less if subbed out)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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Thanks DD What these stats point out is that We have to make significant improvement in a number of key area’s if we want to remain in the top echelon of teams, we need some new blood, as Adonski pointed out several times one player won’t make the difference we need 4-6 new players to put some pressure on our existing players. We need some new perspective on how to improve the skill sets and get the absolute best out of our existing players. Time and tide wait for no man.!!!

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2 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD What these stats point out is that We have to make significant improvement in a number of key area’s if we want to remain in the top echelon of teams, we need some new blood, as Adonski pointed out several times one player won’t make the difference we need 4-6 new players to put some pressure on our existing players. We need some new perspective on how to improve the skill sets and get the absolute best out of our existing players. Time and tide wait for no man.!!!

Yes especially players with exemplary foot skills and leg speed DZ.

We probably only have a two year window with the bulk of the present list so we'll need to nail this off-season draft / trade period.

New perspective is right.  More of the same will just see us doing more of the same.

IF Goodwin comes out doubling down on this years mantra of "win the contests and defensive side and the rest will look after itself" and doesn't look to change up the FD and our methods in any significant way then i'll be expecting similar results in 2024, or worse!

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@WheeloRatings could we get the top 5 deliverers of the ball i50 and how many of their kicks were retained and possibly compare this to say the top 10 in the league.

I think it was last season at some stage there was a stat that was something like Trac had 19 i50's at that stage and either 1 or none were retained and Clarry had 21 and 2 were retained. It doesn't appear to have got any better this season. 

Edited by Its Time for Another
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"Of the 25 players that played finals, only 9 of them either matched (for the sake of this argument let's say they got to within 5% or better of their H&A season rating) or bettered their H&A Season Rating.

The nine players were...

Clarry +3.5%, May +32.6%, Gawn + 15.3%, Tomlinson +8%, Hunter -1.7%, Pickett +11.3%, Smith +6.7%, Spargo +3.4% and Hibberd +4.3%"

Cannot win finals playing like this

Edited by Kent
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I decided to deep dive into our supposed inaccuracy issues this year to validate or bust this hypothesis. The stats seem to bust this hypothesis. Yes, we had some bad games and patches, and unfortunately some of our worst in our two finals, but over the H&A season we were actually 2nd in scoring above expected (according to Champion Data) with 60 more points, only behind Collingwood who scored 98 points more than expected. We performed better than expected in 14 games (only behind Syd with 15) and worse than expected in 9 games (equal 3rd lowest, Carl best with 7). We performed better than expected by 10 or more points in 8 games (equal second with Syd and 1 behind Coll) and worse than expected by 10 or more points in 5 games (mid table). We did have the most number of such large variances to expected with these 13 games of 10 or more points outside expected score being equal with the Giants.

image.thumb.png.0d69eaffd35ed87028191d754940639a.png

 

When charting our scoring performance against expected, I think we all know we started hot, went through a lull, picked it up after Alice Springs before starting to struggle again.

image.png.5c53784626209cf9823e8c614c68fcdd.png

And unfortunately, the season culminated in our 4th worst (-17 vs Coll) and 7th worst (-11 vs Carl) expected score performances of the season in the finals. 

image.png.ef07767e76bed69debbf707a093ec8ca.png

To summarise though, I don't buy into the hypothesis that we need to fix our goal kicking or kicking in general. We generated plenty of scoring shots and were above average in converting these across the H&A season when you look at being the second best team above expected score. There are a lot smarter people than I who argue strongly that winning and losing close games involves a lot of luck. Our record in games with margins of 12 points or less: 4-7. Not to mention that last goal of Carlton's on the weekend. The chances of that chain happening the way it did must have been one in a million. That is:

1. Viney's hurried kick going straight Weitering instead of one metre higher and to J.Smith

2. Weitering hitting Hollands lace out after being groggy not long before

3. McVee missing the spoil and flying straight past Docherty rather than spoiling or not even attempting to spoil and just hold up Docherty to give the defence time to set up

4. The ball to Acres falling perfectly for him and, even though he was close, he was only about a foot away from hitting the left hand post. 

Some things are not meant to be, and as frustrating, bitterly disappointing and utterly heart-breaking Fri night was, we can't change the past. What we, and more importantly the players and coaches, can control is the response to that experience. They can respond by going into their shell, thinking they can't execute under pressure, just keeping on doing what they've been doing. Based on this year though, I think they will respond by reviewing the season as they did last year and evolving and improving just like they did this year. Ultimately, we didn't improve enough and that's the challenge in front of every club, every year. Improve enough, trade and draft the best players possible, learn from this year and strive for excellence so hopefully next year we can be that good that we don't need to rely on luck to win enough games to lift the cup at our home ground in front of all of us.

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36 minutes ago, Deelightful Dee said:

I decided to deep dive into our supposed inaccuracy issues this year to validate or bust this hypothesis. The stats seem to bust this hypothesis. Yes, we had some bad games and patches, and unfortunately some of our worst in our two finals, but over the H&A season we were actually 2nd in scoring above expected (according to Champion Data) with 60 more points, only behind Collingwood who scored 98 points more than expected. We performed better than expected in 14 games (only behind Syd with 15) and worse than expected in 9 games (equal 3rd lowest, Carl best with 7). We performed better than expected by 10 or more points in 8 games (equal second with Syd and 1 behind Coll) and worse than expected by 10 or more points in 5 games (mid table). We did have the most number of such large variances to expected with these 13 games of 10 or more points outside expected score being equal with the Giants.

image.thumb.png.0d69eaffd35ed87028191d754940639a.png

 

When charting our scoring performance against expected, I think we all know we started hot, went through a lull, picked it up after Alice Springs before starting to struggle again.

image.png.5c53784626209cf9823e8c614c68fcdd.png

And unfortunately, the season culminated in our 4th worst (-17 vs Coll) and 7th worst (-11 vs Carl) expected score performances of the season in the finals. 

image.png.ef07767e76bed69debbf707a093ec8ca.png

To summarise though, I don't buy into the hypothesis that we need to fix our goal kicking or kicking in general. We generated plenty of scoring shots and were above average in converting these across the H&A season when you look at being the second best team above expected score. There are a lot smarter people than I who argue strongly that winning and losing close games involves a lot of luck. Our record in games with margins of 12 points or less: 4-7. Not to mention that last goal of Carlton's on the weekend. The chances of that chain happening the way it did must have been one in a million. That is:

1. Viney's hurried kick going straight Weitering instead of one metre higher and to J.Smith

2. Weitering hitting Hollands lace out after being groggy not long before

3. McVee missing the spoil and flying straight past Docherty rather than spoiling or not even attempting to spoil and just hold up Docherty to give the defence time to set up

4. The ball to Acres falling perfectly for him and, even though he was close, he was only about a foot away from hitting the left hand post. 

Some things are not meant to be, and as frustrating, bitterly disappointing and utterly heart-breaking Fri night was, we can't change the past. What we, and more importantly the players and coaches, can control is the response to that experience. They can respond by going into their shell, thinking they can't execute under pressure, just keeping on doing what they've been doing. Based on this year though, I think they will respond by reviewing the season as they did last year and evolving and improving just like they did this year. Ultimately, we didn't improve enough and that's the challenge in front of every club, every year. Improve enough, trade and draft the best players possible, learn from this year and strive for excellence so hopefully next year we can be that good that we don't need to rely on luck to win enough games to lift the cup at our home ground in front of all of us.

Great analysis.  But the point is that pressure goes up in finals and our accuracy goes down.  The Melbourne/Goodwin mantra is that we play a contested, territory winning, defensive style because that's what wins finals and I think that's reasonable, but when we get in inside crowded 50 as a result, we need a gun forward line to convert hard opportunities.

Teams that play a more rebounding open style get more defensive one-on-ones and actually don't need absolute maximum class forward, but our game style results in congestion inside 50 and we're playing against the best defences - we need better converters under maximum pressure.

Edited by old55
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2 hours ago, old55 said:

Great analysis.  But the point is that pressure goes up in finals and our accuracy goes down.  The Melbourne/Goodwin mantra is that we play a contested, territory winning, defensive style because that's what wins finals and I think that's reasonable, but when we get in inside crowded 50 as a result, we need a gun forward line to convert hard opportunities.

Teams that play a more rebounding open style get more defensive one-on-ones and actually don't need absolute maximum class forward, but our game style results in congestion inside 50 and we're playing against the best defences - we need better converters under maximum pressure.

Now that’s great analysis. 

Couldn’t agree more. I’m biased being a forward and a former forwards coach - I have never been comfortable with how we have leveraged our forward players to supplement our defence. And it really does impact how ‘easy’ it is for us to kick goals and get favourable match ups.

I assume this will be addressed by the FD over the summer.

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1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Now that’s great analysis. 

Couldn’t agree more. I’m biased being a forward and a former forwards coach - I have never been comfortable with how we have leveraged our forward players to supplement our defence. And it really does impact how ‘easy’ it is for us to kick goals and get favourable match ups.

I assume this will be addressed by the FD over the summer.

Yes I'm a slow learner, but I think it's finally dawned on me. I thought "Defence and contest" - that must mean we need the best defenders and mids available.

But no, they do have to be very good, but it actually means we need the best forwards available because it's so hard to score goals with 30 players in your F50. They'll get an absolute heap of nearly opportunities.

Edited by old55
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2 hours ago, old55 said:

Yes I'm a slow learner, but I think it's finally dawned on me. I thought "Defence and contest" - that must mean we need the best defenders and mids available.

But no, they do have to be very good, but it actually means we need the best forwards available because it's so hard to score goals with 30 players in your F50. They'll get an absolute heap of nearly opportunities.

Yes, it’s why I ran through in some random thread a few months ago how I hope we leverage our backline strength, not have such a high press and be more of a counter attacking and fast movement team - I also think that will play into the strengths of our two best mids who are ‘hoofers’ of the highest order. I would much prefer they ‘just effing kick it’ as the masses say, to grass for Pickett, Chandler, McAdam, and Fritsch to run on to. But we have to build that space forward of centre. 

But again, it depends on who we get in October.

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9 hours ago, rpfc said:

Yes, it’s why I ran through in some random thread a few months ago how I hope we leverage our backline strength, not have such a high press and be more of a counter attacking and fast movement team - I also think that will play into the strengths of our two best mids who are ‘hoofers’ of the highest order. I would much prefer they ‘just effing kick it’ as the masses say, to grass for Pickett, Chandler, McAdam, and Fritsch to run on to. But we have to build that space forward of centre. 

But again, it depends on who we get in October.

I'm going for a different solution - acquire more elite forward talent. We have the draft hand and salary cap space to do it. It's a simpler fix IMHO.

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17 minutes ago, old55 said:

I'm going for a different solution - acquire more elite forward talent. We have the draft hand and salary cap space to do it. It's a simpler fix IMHO.

I think if we get that elite talent, it will force the issue and we will adjust our game style.

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2 hours ago, rpfc said:

I think if we get that elite talent, it will force the issue and we will adjust our game style.

I think that was borne out when Petty was in there and playing at his optimum. We need to add at least one more great finisher to the mix.

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On 9/19/2023 at 3:23 PM, Its Time for Another said:

@WheeloRatings could we get the top 5 deliverers of the ball i50 and how many of their kicks were retained and possibly compare this to say the top 10 in the league.

I think it was last season at some stage there was a stat that was something like Trac had 19 i50's at that stage and either 1 or none were retained and Clarry had 21 and 2 were retained. It doesn't appear to have got any better this season. 

I have had a look at the retention for Melbourne players kicking inside 50 this season, and funnily enough, Clarry was #1 (although only 1 in 6 of his kicks directly resulted in a mark or free). The best at hitting a target (mark or free kick) were Spargo (36%), Pickett (38%), McVee (35%), and Chandler (36%). Spargo was actually #1 in the AFL (50+ kicks) for overall retention in both 2021 and 2022 (66% in both seasons)!

Below are a few tables including all Melbourne players this season.

Please note that this is all based on my own calculations from the underlying data that I have access to - it is not the official Champion Data retention stats but should be indicative.

Here are the descriptions of the columns in the tables.

  • Kicks: kicks inside 50
  • Retained
    • Total: % of kicks inside 50 where the next possession was won by a teammate or the kick itself went through for a goal.
    • Mark/Free: % of kicks inside 50 where a teammate marked the kick or won a free kick.
    • Chain Goal: % of kicks inside 50 where the chain resulted in a goal.
  • Not Retained
    • Opp. Poss.: % of kicks inside 50 where the next possession was won by an opposition player.
    • Stopp.: % of kicks inside 50 where no player won possession and there was a stoppage (including ball ups and out of bounds).
    • Behind: % of kicks inside 50 where the kick itself went through for a behind (including rushed).

Melbourne Players (20+ kicks), 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Clayton Oliver 71 59.2% 16.9% 22.5% 33.8% 7.0% 0.0%
Charlie Spargo 25 56.0% 36.0% 28.0% 32.0% 12.0% 0.0%
Lachie Hunter 89 52.8% 28.1% 16.9% 38.2% 9.0% 0.0%
Christian Salem 40 52.5% 25.0% 7.5% 45.0% 2.5% 0.0%
Kysaiah Pickett 42 50.0% 38.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.3% 2.4%
Alex Neal-Bullen 75 49.3% 24.0% 21.3% 41.3% 6.7% 2.7%
Trent Rivers 71 49.3% 23.9% 21.1% 33.8% 12.7% 4.2%
Bayley Fritsch 41 48.8% 24.4% 19.5% 34.1% 17.1% 0.0%
Christian Petracca 120 48.3% 22.5% 23.3% 31.7% 15.0% 5.0%
Judd McVee 23 47.8% 34.8% 34.8% 43.5% 8.7% 0.0%
Kade Chandler 44 47.7% 36.4% 20.5% 31.8% 18.2% 2.3%
Steven May 34 47.1% 29.4% 5.9% 41.2% 11.8% 0.0%
James Jordon 38 44.7% 23.7% 13.2% 42.1% 13.2% 0.0%
Jack Viney 118 44.1% 16.1% 20.3% 44.1% 11.0% 0.8%
Jake Bowey 38 42.1% 18.4% 10.5% 36.8% 18.4% 2.6%
Angus Brayshaw 65 41.5% 15.4% 15.4% 41.5% 16.9% 0.0%
Tom Sparrow 62 40.3% 19.4% 17.7% 45.2% 14.5% 0.0%
Max Gawn 70 38.6% 10.0% 10.0% 42.9% 12.9% 5.7%
Jake Melksham 26 38.5% 15.4% 19.2% 57.7% 3.8% 0.0%
Ed Langdon 73 37.0% 12.3% 9.6% 53.4% 8.2% 1.4%
Brodie Grundy 33 36.4% 12.1% 3.0% 51.5% 9.1% 3.0%
Jake Lever 26 26.9% 15.4% 11.5% 57.7% 15.4% 0.0%

 

Melbourne by Round, 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Round 1 v WB 55 54.5% 29.1% 29.1% 32.7% 12.7% 0.0%
Round 2 v Bris 51 49.0% 21.6% 23.5% 29.4% 19.6% 2.0%
Round 3 v Syd 52 53.8% 21.2% 26.9% 30.8% 13.5% 1.9%
Round 4 v WC 58 55.2% 27.6% 25.9% 36.2% 6.9% 1.7%
Round 5 v Ess 41 34.1% 9.8% 14.6% 48.8% 17.1% 0.0%
Round 6 v Rich 48 37.5% 27.1% 20.8% 54.2% 8.3% 0.0%
Round 7 v NM 57 56.1% 22.8% 26.3% 33.3% 8.8% 1.8%
Round 8 v GC 53 34.0% 18.9% 15.1% 54.7% 11.3% 0.0%
Round 9 v Haw 62 58.1% 30.6% 19.4% 30.6% 6.5% 4.8%
Round 10 v Port 45 51.1% 20.0% 17.8% 42.2% 6.7% 0.0%
Round 11 v Frem 53 47.2% 18.9% 15.1% 37.7% 15.1% 0.0%
Round 12 v Carl 56 42.9% 25.0% 10.7% 39.3% 16.1% 1.8%
Round 13 v Coll 56 41.1% 25.0% 12.5% 42.9% 12.5% 3.6%
Round 15 v Geel 51 37.3% 13.7% 11.8% 33.3% 21.6% 7.8%
Round 16 v GWS 66 34.8% 7.6% 3.0% 48.5% 16.7% 0.0%
Round 17 v St K 42 45.2% 26.2% 26.2% 45.2% 7.1% 2.4%
Round 18 v Bris 50 48.0% 26.0% 18.0% 44.0% 8.0% 0.0%
Round 19 v Adel 50 56.0% 26.0% 26.0% 40.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Round 20 v Rich 63 42.9% 23.8% 22.2% 41.3% 12.7% 3.2%
Round 21 v NM 65 44.6% 23.1% 20.0% 43.1% 10.8% 1.5%
Round 22 v Carl 40 45.0% 20.0% 17.5% 42.5% 10.0% 2.5%
Round 23 v Haw 56 48.2% 26.8% 17.9% 39.3% 10.7% 1.8%
Round 24 v Syd 50 42.0% 18.0% 12.0% 44.0% 14.0% 0.0%
Round 25 v Coll 61 41.0% 16.4% 9.8% 44.3% 9.8% 4.9%
Round 26 v Carl 48 45.8% 18.8% 14.6% 43.8% 8.3% 2.1%

 

Melbourne by Season

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
2021 1301 46.9% 23.2% 19.4% 35.3% 14.2% 3.6%
2022 1233 46.5% 21.2% 18.2% 35.3% 15.4% 2.8%
2023 1329 45.9% 21.8% 18.1% 40.7% 11.6% 1.8%

 

Teams, 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Adelaide 1164 49.6% 23.9% 21.1% 34.2% 12.9% 3.4%
Essendon 1066 48.6% 22.9% 18.9% 38.9% 10.0% 2.4%
Port Adelaide 1337 47.9% 24.2% 18.6% 36.0% 12.8% 3.3%
Geelong 1098 47.9% 26.9% 20.7% 37.5% 12.6% 2.0%
Greater Western Sydney 1339 47.6% 23.0% 18.1% 37.6% 12.5% 2.3%
Brisbane 1241 47.2% 24.4% 20.2% 35.9% 13.8% 3.1%
Richmond 1128 46.9% 24.3% 17.8% 38.3% 12.1% 2.7%
Collingwood 1203 46.9% 24.9% 21.8% 36.7% 13.5% 3.0%
Sydney 1178 46.7% 21.6% 18.6% 38.0% 11.4% 3.9%
Melbourne 1329 45.9% 21.8% 18.1% 40.7% 11.6% 1.8%
Western Bulldogs 1173 45.4% 22.7% 17.9% 37.4% 14.2% 2.9%
Fremantle 1063 44.5% 22.9% 18.8% 39.0% 14.2% 2.3%
Carlton 1281 44.3% 23.1% 19.2% 37.5% 14.5% 3.7%
Gold Coast 1149 44.3% 20.6% 18.7% 39.6% 13.0% 3.1%
St Kilda 1180 44.0% 20.2% 16.4% 44.2% 10.3% 1.4%
West Coast 926 43.7% 21.5% 16.4% 39.2% 14.6% 2.5%
Hawthorn 1053 43.2% 22.2% 17.1% 40.5% 13.3% 3.0%
North Melbourne 1004 43.0% 20.1% 17.9% 41.6% 12.8% 2.5%

 

Top 20 AFL players (50+ kicks), 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Gryan Miers (Geel) 84 61.9% 45.2% 36.9% 28.6% 9.5% 0.0%
Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port) 51 60.8% 45.1% 21.6% 21.6% 17.6% 0.0%
Dayne Zorko (Bris) 66 60.6% 34.8% 22.7% 24.2% 10.6% 4.5%
Jack Ross (Rich) 52 59.6% 32.7% 28.8% 34.6% 3.8% 1.9%
Clayton Oliver (Melb) 71 59.2% 16.9% 22.5% 33.8% 7.0% 0.0%
Jason Horne-Francis (Port) 77 58.4% 27.3% 22.1% 32.5% 7.8% 1.3%
Dion Prestia (Rich) 61 57.4% 27.9% 21.3% 26.2% 16.4% 0.0%
Willem Drew (Port) 82 57.3% 24.4% 22.0% 31.7% 11.0% 0.0%
Brayden Maynard (Coll) 56 57.1% 32.1% 19.6% 32.1% 7.1% 3.6%
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 76 56.6% 31.6% 28.9% 32.9% 10.5% 0.0%
Zach Merrett (Ess) 100 56.0% 30.0% 20.0% 33.0% 10.0% 1.0%
Brent Daniels (GWS) 61 55.7% 26.2% 21.3% 29.5% 11.5% 3.3%
Kieren Briggs (GWS) 54 55.6% 14.8% 22.2% 29.6% 13.0% 1.9%
Nic Martin (Ess) 58 55.2% 36.2% 25.9% 37.9% 6.9% 0.0%
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 100 55.0% 31.0% 23.0% 34.0% 11.0% 0.0%
Jordan Dawson (Adel) 131 55.0% 29.0% 26.0% 31.3% 9.2% 4.6%
Hugh McCluggage (Bris) 102 54.9% 30.4% 19.6% 30.4% 13.7% 1.0%
Ben Keays (Adel) 64 54.7% 21.9% 34.4% 31.2% 12.5% 1.6%
Archie Perkins (Ess) 72 54.2% 20.8% 30.6% 31.9% 9.7% 4.2%
Cam Rayner (Bris) 67 53.7% 35.8% 25.4% 31.3% 11.9% 3.0%
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30 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I have had a look at the retention for Melbourne players kicking inside 50 this season, and funnily enough, Clarry was #1 (although only 1 in 6 of his kicks directly resulted in a mark or free). The best at hitting a target (mark or free kick) were Spargo (36%), Pickett (38%), McVee (35%), and Chandler (36%). Spargo was actually #1 in the AFL (50+ kicks) for overall retention in both 2021 and 2022 (66% in both seasons)!

Below are a few tables including all Melbourne players this season.

Please note that this is all based on my own calculations from the underlying data that I have access to - it is not the official Champion Data retention stats but should be indicative.

Here are the descriptions of the columns in the tables.

  • Kicks: kicks inside 50
  • Retained
    • Total: % of kicks inside 50 where the next possession was won by a teammate or the kick itself went through for a goal.
    • Mark/Free: % of kicks inside 50 where a teammate marked the kick or won a free kick.
    • Chain Goal: % of kicks inside 50 where the chain resulted in a goal.
  • Not Retained
    • Opp. Poss.: % of kicks inside 50 where the next possession was won by an opposition player.
    • Stopp.: % of kicks inside 50 where no player won possession and there was a stoppage (including ball ups and out of bounds).
    • Behind: % of kicks inside 50 where the kick itself went through for a behind (including rushed).

Melbourne Players (20+ kicks), 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Clayton Oliver 71 59.2% 16.9% 22.5% 33.8% 7.0% 0.0%
Charlie Spargo 25 56.0% 36.0% 28.0% 32.0% 12.0% 0.0%
Lachie Hunter 89 52.8% 28.1% 16.9% 38.2% 9.0% 0.0%
Christian Salem 40 52.5% 25.0% 7.5% 45.0% 2.5% 0.0%
Kysaiah Pickett 42 50.0% 38.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.3% 2.4%
Alex Neal-Bullen 75 49.3% 24.0% 21.3% 41.3% 6.7% 2.7%
Trent Rivers 71 49.3% 23.9% 21.1% 33.8% 12.7% 4.2%
Bayley Fritsch 41 48.8% 24.4% 19.5% 34.1% 17.1% 0.0%
Christian Petracca 120 48.3% 22.5% 23.3% 31.7% 15.0% 5.0%
Judd McVee 23 47.8% 34.8% 34.8% 43.5% 8.7% 0.0%
Kade Chandler 44 47.7% 36.4% 20.5% 31.8% 18.2% 2.3%
Steven May 34 47.1% 29.4% 5.9% 41.2% 11.8% 0.0%
James Jordon 38 44.7% 23.7% 13.2% 42.1% 13.2% 0.0%
Jack Viney 118 44.1% 16.1% 20.3% 44.1% 11.0% 0.8%
Jake Bowey 38 42.1% 18.4% 10.5% 36.8% 18.4% 2.6%
Angus Brayshaw 65 41.5% 15.4% 15.4% 41.5% 16.9% 0.0%
Tom Sparrow 62 40.3% 19.4% 17.7% 45.2% 14.5% 0.0%
Max Gawn 70 38.6% 10.0% 10.0% 42.9% 12.9% 5.7%
Jake Melksham 26 38.5% 15.4% 19.2% 57.7% 3.8% 0.0%
Ed Langdon 73 37.0% 12.3% 9.6% 53.4% 8.2% 1.4%
Brodie Grundy 33 36.4% 12.1% 3.0% 51.5% 9.1% 3.0%
Jake Lever 26 26.9% 15.4% 11.5% 57.7% 15.4% 0.0%

 

Melbourne by Round, 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Round 1 v WB 55 54.5% 29.1% 29.1% 32.7% 12.7% 0.0%
Round 2 v Bris 51 49.0% 21.6% 23.5% 29.4% 19.6% 2.0%
Round 3 v Syd 52 53.8% 21.2% 26.9% 30.8% 13.5% 1.9%
Round 4 v WC 58 55.2% 27.6% 25.9% 36.2% 6.9% 1.7%
Round 5 v Ess 41 34.1% 9.8% 14.6% 48.8% 17.1% 0.0%
Round 6 v Rich 48 37.5% 27.1% 20.8% 54.2% 8.3% 0.0%
Round 7 v NM 57 56.1% 22.8% 26.3% 33.3% 8.8% 1.8%
Round 8 v GC 53 34.0% 18.9% 15.1% 54.7% 11.3% 0.0%
Round 9 v Haw 62 58.1% 30.6% 19.4% 30.6% 6.5% 4.8%
Round 10 v Port 45 51.1% 20.0% 17.8% 42.2% 6.7% 0.0%
Round 11 v Frem 53 47.2% 18.9% 15.1% 37.7% 15.1% 0.0%
Round 12 v Carl 56 42.9% 25.0% 10.7% 39.3% 16.1% 1.8%
Round 13 v Coll 56 41.1% 25.0% 12.5% 42.9% 12.5% 3.6%
Round 15 v Geel 51 37.3% 13.7% 11.8% 33.3% 21.6% 7.8%
Round 16 v GWS 66 34.8% 7.6% 3.0% 48.5% 16.7% 0.0%
Round 17 v St K 42 45.2% 26.2% 26.2% 45.2% 7.1% 2.4%
Round 18 v Bris 50 48.0% 26.0% 18.0% 44.0% 8.0% 0.0%
Round 19 v Adel 50 56.0% 26.0% 26.0% 40.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Round 20 v Rich 63 42.9% 23.8% 22.2% 41.3% 12.7% 3.2%
Round 21 v NM 65 44.6% 23.1% 20.0% 43.1% 10.8% 1.5%
Round 22 v Carl 40 45.0% 20.0% 17.5% 42.5% 10.0% 2.5%
Round 23 v Haw 56 48.2% 26.8% 17.9% 39.3% 10.7% 1.8%
Round 24 v Syd 50 42.0% 18.0% 12.0% 44.0% 14.0% 0.0%
Round 25 v Coll 61 41.0% 16.4% 9.8% 44.3% 9.8% 4.9%
Round 26 v Carl 48 45.8% 18.8% 14.6% 43.8% 8.3% 2.1%

 

Melbourne by Season

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
2021 1301 46.9% 23.2% 19.4% 35.3% 14.2% 3.6%
2022 1233 46.5% 21.2% 18.2% 35.3% 15.4% 2.8%
2023 1329 45.9% 21.8% 18.1% 40.7% 11.6% 1.8%

 

Teams, 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Adelaide 1164 49.6% 23.9% 21.1% 34.2% 12.9% 3.4%
Essendon 1066 48.6% 22.9% 18.9% 38.9% 10.0% 2.4%
Port Adelaide 1337 47.9% 24.2% 18.6% 36.0% 12.8% 3.3%
Geelong 1098 47.9% 26.9% 20.7% 37.5% 12.6% 2.0%
Greater Western Sydney 1339 47.6% 23.0% 18.1% 37.6% 12.5% 2.3%
Brisbane 1241 47.2% 24.4% 20.2% 35.9% 13.8% 3.1%
Richmond 1128 46.9% 24.3% 17.8% 38.3% 12.1% 2.7%
Collingwood 1203 46.9% 24.9% 21.8% 36.7% 13.5% 3.0%
Sydney 1178 46.7% 21.6% 18.6% 38.0% 11.4% 3.9%
Melbourne 1329 45.9% 21.8% 18.1% 40.7% 11.6% 1.8%
Western Bulldogs 1173 45.4% 22.7% 17.9% 37.4% 14.2% 2.9%
Fremantle 1063 44.5% 22.9% 18.8% 39.0% 14.2% 2.3%
Carlton 1281 44.3% 23.1% 19.2% 37.5% 14.5% 3.7%
Gold Coast 1149 44.3% 20.6% 18.7% 39.6% 13.0% 3.1%
St Kilda 1180 44.0% 20.2% 16.4% 44.2% 10.3% 1.4%
West Coast 926 43.7% 21.5% 16.4% 39.2% 14.6% 2.5%
Hawthorn 1053 43.2% 22.2% 17.1% 40.5% 13.3% 3.0%
North Melbourne 1004 43.0% 20.1% 17.9% 41.6% 12.8% 2.5%

 

Top 20 AFL players (50+ kicks), 2023

  Kicks Retained Not Retained
Total Mark/
Free
Chain
Goal
Opp.
Poss.
Stopp. Behind
Gryan Miers (Geel) 84 61.9% 45.2% 36.9% 28.6% 9.5% 0.0%
Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port) 51 60.8% 45.1% 21.6% 21.6% 17.6% 0.0%
Dayne Zorko (Bris) 66 60.6% 34.8% 22.7% 24.2% 10.6% 4.5%
Jack Ross (Rich) 52 59.6% 32.7% 28.8% 34.6% 3.8% 1.9%
Clayton Oliver (Melb) 71 59.2% 16.9% 22.5% 33.8% 7.0% 0.0%
Jason Horne-Francis (Port) 77 58.4% 27.3% 22.1% 32.5% 7.8% 1.3%
Dion Prestia (Rich) 61 57.4% 27.9% 21.3% 26.2% 16.4% 0.0%
Willem Drew (Port) 82 57.3% 24.4% 22.0% 31.7% 11.0% 0.0%
Brayden Maynard (Coll) 56 57.1% 32.1% 19.6% 32.1% 7.1% 3.6%
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 76 56.6% 31.6% 28.9% 32.9% 10.5% 0.0%
Zach Merrett (Ess) 100 56.0% 30.0% 20.0% 33.0% 10.0% 1.0%
Brent Daniels (GWS) 61 55.7% 26.2% 21.3% 29.5% 11.5% 3.3%
Kieren Briggs (GWS) 54 55.6% 14.8% 22.2% 29.6% 13.0% 1.9%
Nic Martin (Ess) 58 55.2% 36.2% 25.9% 37.9% 6.9% 0.0%
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 100 55.0% 31.0% 23.0% 34.0% 11.0% 0.0%
Jordan Dawson (Adel) 131 55.0% 29.0% 26.0% 31.3% 9.2% 4.6%
Hugh McCluggage (Bris) 102 54.9% 30.4% 19.6% 30.4% 13.7% 1.0%
Ben Keays (Adel) 64 54.7% 21.9% 34.4% 31.2% 12.5% 1.6%
Archie Perkins (Ess) 72 54.2% 20.8% 30.6% 31.9% 9.7% 4.2%
Cam Rayner (Bris) 67 53.7% 35.8% 25.4% 31.3% 11.9% 3.0%

Thanks wheeloratings, very telling indeed 1329 kicks I50 and turned over 40%, that confirms that our way is not the best way. Adelaide, Port, Cats, GWS, Lions and Pies all have a 3-4% higher retention rate than us. If we can achieve the same percentage as Crows we would still be in it up to our eye teeth. What everyone has been saying all year lower your eyes and hit a target. Laces out boys. Also confirms that you need strong marking KPF’s to provide that edge.!!

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On 9/19/2023 at 8:41 AM, old55 said:

@WheeloRatings are the player stats for handball receives available?

They're not publically available, but here are some Melbourne handball received stats.

Most handballs received, Melbourne 2023

  Total Most received from
Jack Viney 234 Christian Petracca (29)
Lachie Hunter 224 Christian Petracca (26)
Angus Brayshaw 217 Jack Viney (28)
Christian Petracca 206 Clayton Oliver (20)
Ed Langdon 203 Jack Viney (19)
Trent Rivers 187 Angus Brayshaw (19)
Tom Sparrow 171 Christian Petracca (22)
Clayton Oliver 148 Christian Petracca (18)
Alex Neal-Bullen 137 Christian Petracca (23)
Judd McVee 131 Jake Lever (14)
Christian Salem 128 Lachie Hunter (21)
Jake Bowey 112 Ed Langdon (17)
James Jordon 108 Christian Petracca (12)
Steven May 81 Jake Lever (13)
Jake Lever 79 Angus Brayshaw (10)
Kade Chandler 79 Christian Petracca (10)
Brodie Grundy 68 Clayton Oliver (11)
Max Gawn 64 Angus Brayshaw (8)
Kysaiah Pickett 57 Christian Petracca (6)
Bayley Fritsch 48 Kysaiah Pickett (8)

 

Most handballs, Melbourne 2023

  Total Received Most received by
Christian Petracca 344 76.5% Jack Viney (29)
Jack Viney 299 70.2% Angus Brayshaw (28)
Angus Brayshaw 269 78.8% Lachie Hunter (24)
Lachie Hunter 230 77.0% Angus Brayshaw (24)
Clayton Oliver 229 79.0% Christian Petracca (20)
Ed Langdon 218 81.2% Jack Viney (18)
Trent Rivers 191 76.4% Lachie Hunter (17)
Tom Sparrow 182 81.3% Jack Viney (18)
Alex Neal-Bullen 158 73.4% Christian Petracca (13)
Jake Lever 145 86.9% Angus Brayshaw (15)
Max Gawn 144 77.1% Angus Brayshaw (15)
Brodie Grundy 143 70.6% Christian Petracca (10), Lachie Hunter (10)
Judd McVee 128 91.4% Ed Langdon (16)
James Jordon 122 86.9% Christian Petracca (14)
Kade Chandler 122 79.5% Lachie Hunter (16)
Jake Bowey 112 78.6% Lachie Hunter (12)
Christian Salem 106 72.6% Trent Rivers (9)
Jacob van Rooyen 84 79.8% Lachie Hunter (11)
Steven May 75 80.0% Angus Brayshaw (6), Christian Salem (6), Jake Bowey (6), Lachie Hunter (6)
Kysaiah Pickett 72 77.8% Bayley Fritsch (8)

 

Highest combination, Melbourne 2023

Handballer Received By Total
Christian Petracca Jack Viney 29
Jack Viney Angus Brayshaw 28
Christian Petracca Lachie Hunter 26
Angus Brayshaw Lachie Hunter 24
Lachie Hunter Angus Brayshaw 24
Christian Petracca Alex Neal-Bullen 23
Christian Petracca Angus Brayshaw 23
Angus Brayshaw Jack Viney 22
Christian Petracca Tom Sparrow 22
Lachie Hunter Christian Salem 21
Clayton Oliver Christian Petracca 20
Angus Brayshaw Trent Rivers 19
Jack Viney Ed Langdon 19
Christian Petracca Clayton Oliver 18
Ed Langdon Jack Viney 18
Tom Sparrow Jack Viney 18
Christian Petracca Trent Rivers 17
Clayton Oliver Lachie Hunter 17
Ed Langdon Jake Bowey 17
Ed Langdon Tom Sparrow 17
Ed Langdon Trent Rivers 17
Jack Viney Christian Petracca 17
Trent Rivers Lachie Hunter 17
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