Stats Files - 2023

[DeeZone 7,661]

Thanks DD those are remarkable stats Clarry is a Beast and Grundy and Tracc not far behind and our bottom six all performed to a high level.!!!

[layzie 28,490]

Great stuff! Langdon's game was a bit underappreciated I think. 

[Demonland 64,398]

 

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

 

To be heading the Pies & the Swans at this point is pretty special.

The media often rave about the amazing transistion to conversion ratio of Swans and Pies.

No mention of the mighty Demons.  Suits me fine! 💪🏼👹

Edited April 3, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[The Jackson FIX 2,287]

If using the pre-season as a dress rehearsal for what you want to do in the season ahead, Dees get top marks:

 

we won our practice match by exactly 50 points. We have gone on to win two of our first three games by exactly 50 points.

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

8 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD those are remarkable stats Clarry is a Beast and Grundy and Tracc not far behind and our bottom six all performed to a high level.!!!

Bottom 6 much improved in comparison to the Lions match DZ but wouldn't have taken alot i don't think.  The Doggies match they rated even higher than the Swans match with a rating of 11.5 but could also be a reflection of the form of the Dogs in that particular match.

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

Deleted ...image upload error

Edited April 3, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 3 , 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

A tad early at only three rounds in.  Not very robust numbers yet of course however let's take a quick squiz at where the boys are tracking vs 2022 (without getting too carried away just yet).

Having said that, for those players that have played 3 full matches, the quality of the oppo has been at a pretty high level so IMHO this is a pretty fair indication of how they're travelling vs 2022 (so far).

Note the team rating vs 2022 is up a substantial 8%.  Although we were also up early last season vs 2021 and of course dropped away in the second half.  Keeping the lid well and truly shut tight for now.

Note:  Some of the new recruits and debutantes obviously don't have any previous data with the MFC to use as a comparison.  Hence some do not have prior ratings or percentage / ranking changes vs 2022.  A number have also only played one match so their ratings will likely be skewed to some degree which is pretty obvious.  Have also noted which players have been subbed out (<) and which players were subbed in (>).  Where a player was subbed out super early for injury reasons (less than a full quarter played), resulting in very minor output (eg., Max as one good example so far), i will not be penalising said player by including that match for averaging purposes as that would dilute their rating significantly and unfairly IMV.

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.517	1	5.320	3.70	1	0
K Pickett *	4.825	2	2.118	127.81	21	19
C Petracca	4.400	3	4.456	-1.26	2	-1
A Brayshaw	4.238	4	3.839	10.39	5	1
Max Gawn # <	4.125	5	3.215	28.30	8	3
T Rivers	3.692	6	2.423	52.37	18	12
Steven May *	3.650	7	3.971	-8.08	3	-4
J Jordon *	3.650	7	3.164	15.36	9	2
B Grundy	3.575	9	-	-	-	-
Jake Lever	3.492	10	2.703	29.19	14	4
A Tomlinson	3.263	11	2.079	56.95	22	11
J V Rooyen # *	3.125	12	-	-	-	-
L Hunter	3.042	13	-	-	-	-
Ed Langdon	2.992	14	3.109	-3.76	11	-3
Jake Bowey	2.908	15	2.856	1.82	13	-2
H Petty	2.733	16	2.392	14.26	19	3
Jack Viney	2.725	17	3.971	-31.38	3	-14
K Chandler	2.600	18	3.128	-16.88	10	-8
Alex N-Bullen	2.600	18	2.688	-3.27	15	-3
T Sparrow	2.500	20	2.665	-6.19	16	-4
T McDonald #	2.488	21	1.939	28.31	26	5
Bayley Fritsch	2.275	22	1.936	17.51	27	5
J Harmes	2.225	23	3.082	-27.81	12	-11
Judd McVee	2.183	24	-	-	-	-
Ben Brown # <	2.033	25	1.759	15.58	29	4
C Spargo	2.017	26	1.981	1.82	24	-2
M Hibberd *	1.700	27	2.613	-34.94	17	-10
B Laurie <	1.150	28	-	-	-	-
J Melksham >	0.408	29	1.947	-79.04	25	-4
Team Rating	74.42		68.89	8.02

* Only played one match, rating is not an average rating

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed Out at least once or more

> Subbed In at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

Edited April 3, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

Round 4, 2023 Optus Stadium - Eagles vs Demons

Clarry on top again... need to temper that somewhat as he did have the equal most number of clangers on the day with 7,  alongside Williams of WC.

Rivers the most meters gained for us with 445.  Only beaten by Tim Kelly who was way in front of everyone with 703.

A very nice 'return to form' result from Viney i thought...

18 Effectives @ 82%, 1 mark i50, 3 one percenters, 7 clearances, 2 Rebounds, 5 inside 50s, 6 tackles (one inside 50),  9 score involvements, 2 intercepts, 1 goal, 387 meters gained and 3 turnovers.

Great result for Rivers as well.  Only my opinion but if he just cleans up his kicking / decision making a tad (at least some made when not under a great deal of pressure) to put some icing on what's becoming a pretty decent 2023 so far.

Player	Rating	Rank
C Oliver	6.200	1
Trent Rivers	5.550	2
Jack Viney	5.250	3
C Petracca	4.700	4
A N-Bullen	3.850	5
A Brayshaw	3.800	6
T McDonald #	3.775	7
K Pickett	3.675	8
B Grundy #	3.450	9
Judd McVee	3.275	10
K Chandler	3.175	11
Steven May	3.175	11
Ed Langdon	3.150	13
L Hunter	3.150	13
Jake Lever	3.000	15
B Fritsch	2.950	16
Jake Bowey	2.850	17
T Sparrow	2.550	18
C Spargo	2.475	19
H Petty #	1.750	20
J Jordon > 24%	1.650	21
J Van Rooyen #	1.575	22
M Hibberd < 72%	1.375	23
Team Score	74.98
Top 6	29.35
Bottom 6	12.85

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

Edited April 9, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Neil Crompton 4,672]

Thanks for your work DD - one question though. A number of posters on here have been bemoaning Gus’s performances this year - particularly the last 2 games.  Your rankings tell a very different tale. Under your system, what performance indicators rank him a lot higher than people give him credit for?

[DeeZone 7,661]

Thanks DD I really love checking out the stats they verify what you have just watched without the emotion and self bias. Also reinforces the changes in player performances Rivers, McVee and Chandler in particular.!!!

[layzie 28,490]

Smashed it as always, Rivers performance was played down a lot in the votes I thought. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

6 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD I really love checking out the stats they verify what you have just watched without the emotion and self bias. Also reinforces the changes in player performances Rivers, McVee and Chandler in particular.!!!

Cheers DZ ... yes great to see these three young fellas making an impact!  Obviously it's a long season and rookie's can drop away somewhat as the year progresses at times but it's a great start.

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

4 hours ago, layzie said:

Smashed it as always, Rivers performance was played down a lot in the votes I thought. 

I was surprised with this rating Layzie.

Even though i thought he played a VN game and was involved quite a bit, i thought the rating was a fair degree higher that what i saw.

However, this is the exact reason you might take a second look at a particular player's game on occasions when you see something jump out at you.

Generally you have to trust what you see / witness on the day, provided.... , that you're paying serious attention on the said player/s under consideration and taking any 'bias hat' off as well!  I probably missed quite a bit, including the impact he was having at times both in general play and out of the middle.

Would like to check his game out again if i had the time.  There's also the things we miss on the box though that happen behind the ball or outside the viewing area of the camera that might be caught by the statisticians.

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

9 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

Thanks for your work DD - one question though. A number of posters on here have been bemoaning Gus’s performances this year - particularly the last 2 games.  Your rankings tell a very different tale. Under your system, what performance indicators rank him a lot higher than people give him credit for?

OK so this could be a bit deceiving NC, depending on what one person might see as the more important key indicators (from vanilla publicly available footy stats anyway).

The table below shows Gus's season averages so far vs those from his entire 2022 season.

There is certainly a substantial drop off in certain stats that go towards his weighted rating (2022 & 2023), however some of them were off a very low base in the 2022 season.  This means their contribution to the 2022 weighted rating was already fairly insignificant.  Hence the % drop off may seem quite substantial (in a percentage sense) but its impact on the rating number isn't as dramatic as might be expected.

His 2023 rating is also propped up somewhat by some factors such as tackles and score involvements being up, plus turnovers being down substantially vs 2022.

Caveat though... although turnovers are well down, this might also be a factor of his dropping away in key areas (for Gus) like clearances, rebounds and inside 50s.  In general it would seem he is just not getting on the receiving end 'as much' as he was in 2022 (two way running/work rate off a little?).

The meters gained drop off is also concerning!  Again work rate or maybe not as attacking in his general play / method as he was in 2022?  Going lateral / backwards a little more etc?

Early days though with only 4 matches of data to go on.  So no point crucifying him at this stage imv as he has plenty of credits and more than enough time to start turning some of the not-so-good things around.

In summary i would say those rating his season as a bit off (so far) are, in the main, on the money....but it is early days!

I'm sure Gus & those involved with him inside the four walls will also be well aware of some of these numbers (in a real game 'involvement/output/impact' sense... not so much a numbers sense!).  I'm sure he'll crank things up over the coming weeks.  Not panic stations by any means but he's certainly got a bit of work ahead if he's to get back to somewhere near his 2022 / 2021 form/groove.

Note:  An asterisk in this table indicates the stat is used towards the weighted rating

#10 A Brayshaw	2022	2023	% Change
CP	7.73	6.00	-22.4
UP	18.45	14.75	-20.1
ED*	18.68	17.25	-7.7
DE%	72.35	82.73	10.4
CM*	0.55	0.00	-100.0
Mi50*	0.00	0.00	-
1%*	1.55	1.25	-19.1
CL*	1.64	1.25	-23.6
R50*	3.64	2.75	-24.4
i50*	2.95	1.00	-66.2
T*	2.09	2.25	7.6
Si*	3.82	4.25	11.3
MG	423.09	252.50	-40.3
TO*	5.00	3.25	-35.0
ITC*	7.36	7.50	1.9
T5*	0.05	0.00	-
TOG%	83.32	85.00	1.7
G*	0.05	0.00	-

2022 Rating

3.839

2023 Rating

3.781

%Change

-1.49

Edited April 10, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

Weighted Average Ratings up to & including Rnd 4, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Team rating (top 22 rated players) still tracking strongly above 2022 season & well above 2021's 67.23 rating (+12.3%)

Note:  Last week's season ratings were somewhat inaccurate for a few players.  Now corrected !

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.688	1	5.320	6.92	1	0
C Petracca	4.475	2	4.456	0.43	2	0
J Jordon > *	4.274	3	3.164	35.08	9	6
K Pickett	4.250	4	2.118	100.66	21	17
T Rivers	4.156	5	2.423	71.52	18	13
Max Gawn # < *	4.125	6	3.215	28.30	8	2
A Brayshaw	3.781	7	3.839	-1.51	5	-2
Jack Viney	3.567	8	3.971	-10.17	3	-5
B Grundy #	3.544	9	-	-	-	-
Steven May	3.413	10	3.971	-14.05	3	-7
Jake Lever	3.369	11	2.703	24.64	14	3
A Tomlinson	3.263	12	2.079	56.95	22	10
L Hunter	3.069	13	-	-	-	-
Ed Langdon	3.031	14	3.109	-2.51	11	-3
Alex N-Bullen	2.975	15	2.688	10.68	15	0
T McDonald #	2.917	16	1.939	50.44	26	10
Jake Bowey	2.894	17	2.856	1.33	13	-4
K Chandler	2.744	18	3.128	-12.28	10	-8
T Sparrow	2.513	19	2.665	-5.70	16	-3
Bayley Fritsch	2.500	20	1.936	29.13	27	7
H Petty #	2.488	21	2.392	4.01	19	-2
Judd McVee	2.456	22	-	-	-	-
J V Rooyen #	2.350	23	-	-	-	-
J Harmes	2.225	24	3.082	-27.81	12	-12
C Spargo	2.131	25	1.981	7.57	24	-1
Ben Brown # <	2.033	26	1.759	15.58	29	3
M Hibberd *	1.788	27	2.613	-31.57	17	-10
B Laurie < *	1.150	28	-	-	-	-
J Melksham > *	1.012	29	1.947	-48.02	25	-4
Team Rating	75.49		68.89	9.58

* Played less than two full matches (in total) - average rating compromised

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed Out at least once or more

> Subbed In at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

Edited April 10, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[adonski 9,102]

2 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 4, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Team rating (top 22 rated players) still tracking strongly above 2022 season & well above 2021's 67.23 rating (+12.3%)

Note:  Last week's season ratings were somewhat inaccurate for a few players.  Now corrected !

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.688	1	5.320	6.92	1	0
C Petracca	4.475	2	4.456	0.43	2	0
J Jordon > *	4.274	3	3.164	35.08	9	6
K Pickett	4.250	4	2.118	100.66	21	17
T Rivers	4.156	5	2.423	71.52	18	13
Max Gawn # < *	4.125	6	3.215	28.30	8	2
A Brayshaw	3.781	7	3.839	-1.51	5	-2
Jack Viney	3.567	8	3.971	-10.17	3	-5
B Grundy	3.544	9	-	-	-	-
Steven May	3.413	10	3.971	-14.05	3	-7
Jake Lever	3.369	11	2.703	24.64	14	3
A Tomlinson	3.263	12	2.079	56.95	22	10
L Hunter	3.069	13	-	-	-	-
Ed Langdon	3.031	14	3.109	-2.51	11	-3
Alex N-Bullen	2.975	15	2.688	10.68	15	0
T McDonald #	2.917	16	1.939	50.44	26	10
Jake Bowey	2.894	17	2.856	1.33	13	-4
K Chandler	2.744	18	3.128	-12.28	10	-8
T Sparrow	2.513	19	2.665	-5.70	16	-3
Bayley Fritsch	2.500	20	1.936	29.13	27	7
H Petty	2.488	21	2.392	4.01	19	-2
Judd McVee	2.456	22	-	-	-	-
J V Rooyen #	2.350	23	-	-	-	-
J Harmes	2.225	24	3.082	-27.81	12	-12
C Spargo	2.131	25	1.981	7.57	24	-1
Ben Brown # <	2.033	26	1.759	15.58	29	3
M Hibberd *	1.788	27	2.613	-31.57	17	-10
B Laurie < *	1.150	28	-	-	-	-
J Melksham > *	1.012	29	1.947	-48.02	25	-4
Team Rating	75.49		68.89	9.58

* Played less than two full matches (in total) - average rating compromised

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed Out at least once or more

> Subbed In at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

#FreeJordon

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2023/04/11/afl-power-rankings-round-4-a-giant-jinx-flagpies-no-more-and-st-kilda-marches-on/

[spirit of norm smith 12,835]

Question mark: Clearances differential (-6.8) – 18th

This might be the most surprising stat of the lot for a team so recognised for its star-studded midfield. Although it could be partly of the club’s own doing. While Clayton Oliver is probably the best inside mid in the game and continues to get heavy usage in the role, Goodwin has made an emphasis to expand his on-ball rotation this season. Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney are still the Dees’ main three on-ballers, but the likes of Tom Sparrow, Kysaiah Pickett, James Harmes and James Jordon have gotten more midfield opportunities. And although Brodie Grundy has done a great job filling the No. 1 ruck role in Max Gawn’s absence, the Demons skipper was the best clearance ruckman in the game last year by some margin.

[buck_nekkid 5,458]

27 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Question mark: Clearances differential (-6.8) – 18th

This might be the most surprising stat of the lot for a team so recognised for its star-studded midfield. Although it could be partly of the club’s own doing. While Clayton Oliver is probably the best inside mid in the game and continues to get heavy usage in the role, Goodwin has made an emphasis to expand his on-ball rotation this season. Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney are still the Dees’ main three on-ballers, but the likes of Tom Sparrow, Kysaiah Pickett, James Harmes and James Jordon have gotten more midfield opportunities. And although Brodie Grundy has done a great job filling the No. 1 ruck role in Max Gawn’s absence, the Demons skipper was the best clearance ruckman in the game last year by some margin.

We were flogged by the lions so the stats of the other games are impacted by this ‘outlier’ over only 4 rounds.  We are also better at post clearance contest winning (if the oppo clear it, they do so under pressure and the receiver is also under pressure). So maybe it isnt the key stat for us?

[Kent 2,574]

On 4/10/2023 at 8:34 PM, adonski said:

#FreeJordon

whats wrong with Viney and May Stats?

 

[spirit of norm smith 12,835]

MELBOURNE

Strength: Points from turnovers (68 per game) – 1st

It’s the most common way for AFL teams to score, and the Demons are doing it better than any side right now. This would be all the more encouraging given Melbourne’s ball movement inside 50 and general forward function fell apart in the second half of last season. But Simon Goodwin’s side, which has been boosted by the addition of winger Lachie Hunter, is currently the gold standard for converting goals in transition by craftily changing angles and playing with more flare. Big improvement in this area may be the No.1 reason the Demons can win the flag.

[binman 37,763]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Question mark: Clearances differential (-6.8) – 18th

This might be the most surprising stat of the lot for a team so recognised for its star-studded midfield. Although it could be partly of the club’s own doing. While Clayton Oliver is probably the best inside mid in the game and continues to get heavy usage in the role, Goodwin has made an emphasis to expand his on-ball rotation this season. Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney are still the Dees’ main three on-ballers, but the likes of Tom Sparrow, Kysaiah Pickett, James Harmes and James Jordon have gotten more midfield opportunities. And although Brodie Grundy has done a great job filling the No. 1 ruck role in Max Gawn’s absence, the Demons skipper was the best clearance ruckman in the game last year by some margin.

It's not about the total number of clearances, or the differential.

It is about the differential in scoring from clearances.

That's to say there are clearances and there are clearances. Our focus is on quality clearances and scoring from stoppages. 

We set up aggressively to maximise scoring potential and are often outnumbered at stoppages. This means that we will always give up our fair share of clearances. 

When the oppo do win the clearance, our focus is putting them under enough pressure to force a turnover, or at the least a crappy forward entry.

A good example of a stat (like hit outs once was before it became clear it is a relatively meaningless stat) that does not have the relavance it might have say 2-3 seasons ago.

[Demon Dynasty 15,203]

13 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Question mark: Clearances differential (-6.8) – 18th

This might be the most surprising stat of the lot for a team so recognised for its star-studded midfield. Although it could be partly of the club’s own doing. While Clayton Oliver is probably the best inside mid in the game and continues to get heavy usage in the role, Goodwin has made an emphasis to expand his on-ball rotation this season. Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney are still the Dees’ main three on-ballers, but the likes of Tom Sparrow, Kysaiah Pickett, James Harmes and James Jordon have gotten more midfield opportunities. And although Brodie Grundy has done a great job filling the No. 1 ruck role in Max Gawn’s absence, the Demons skipper was the best clearance ruckman in the game last year by some margin.

Too much tinkering for mine NS.  It's only a theory but my view is if you add one too many extras (or thereabouts) rotating through the middle i believe you eventually water down the form (touch/cohesion with ruckman etc) of the main crew and  you end up rendering the mid field into an average (or worse) version of its former dominating original set-up.

IMHO this is what has happened so far this season and unless/until Goody & Co. wake up to it we are likely to see this season also fritter away slowly before our eyes.

Obviously the mid field will be improved by the return of Max, however it will still remain a shadow of itself if the FD continue to water it down with too many lessor lights rotating through there far too often.  Ok if you were rotating a stack of VERY high quality replacements this might not be an issue.  But the gap between the main 3 to 4 and let's say the 6th or 7th is so wide it ends up costing us.

[adonski 9,102]

3 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Too much tinkering for mine NS.  It's only a theory but my view is if you add one too many extras (or thereabouts) rotating through the middle i believe you eventually water down the form (touch/cohesion with ruckman etc) of the main crew and  you end up rendering the mid field into an average (or worse) version of its former dominating original set-up.

IMHO this is what has happened so far this season and unless/until Goody & Co. wake up to it we are likely to see this season also fritter away slowly before our eyes.

Obviously the mid field will be improved by the return of Max, however it will still remain a shadow of itself if the FD continue to water it down with too many lessor lights rotating through there far too often.  Ok if you were rotating a stack of VERY high quality replacements this might not be an issue.  But the gap between the main 3 to 4 and let's say the 6th or 7th is so wide it ends up costing us.

Oliver 85% CBA attendances (R 1-4) (-5% on 2022 numbers)
Trac 66% (-9%)
Viney 65% (-10%)

Can't expect them to attend many more I wouldn't have thought..

 

Edited April 15, 2023 by adonski