Welcome to Demonland Matthew Jefferson

[Roost it far 10,136]

1 minute ago, 58er said:

Well they seem to read BinmanCF!!!! 

Perhaps it may apply selectively and you are not on the list! 
Thanks for the advice CF 

No one seriously reads Binman, we just humour the big fella 😂

[layzie 34,528]

6 hours ago, 58er said:

Yes but with his improved form since early/ halfway 2024 that had not been questioned IMO. Any one now can still bring that up but I think he is different to Weid and Schache and he needed to get all his mind and body in the game. He realises now that he is not without the talent and has the confidence to overcome this. 

Only time will tell.

Is that Coach because he said he’s a no correct? It’s only his opinion and many others also have opinions. 

is that Coach still with us? 

I agree, much more mobile than those two.

Time will tell, I hope we start to see some glimpses but I do agree that 2 years development was a minimum requirement. 

[Young Angus 873]

20 hours ago, gs77 said:

And the Saints gave us another leg up last year thanks to their last-round win which put them above us on the ladder and behind us in the draft, landing us Langford who looks like he could be a gun. 😀

How exciting is Langford!!!!

[old dee 24,083]

On 02/02/2025 at 19:04, Deestar9 said:

Years !! …please . He was drafted 2022 and it’s now 2025 so effectively 2 years for a skinny tall forward so far. I’d be happy for him to get a few games at AFL this season and it would be a good progression …

If he doesn't play a number of games this year we can say he won't make it. 2025 or bust IMO. 

[Deestar9 1,855]

On 02/02/2025 at 19:37, Gator said:

If he was good enough he could have played year one.  Like a skinny Riewoldt did and like a skinny Amiss did.

Jefferson is 21 before the start of the season.  Jack Riewoldt kicked 78 goals as a 21 year old and Franklin kicked 108.

Now I'm obviously not comparing him to those two players.  My point is that some supporters spend their lives making excuses for players.  Jefferson has no more excuses and he never really has.  The skinny kid argument has always been BS.

Riewoldt no 1 pick …Franklin no 5 pick …Amiss no 8. The King twins have def not lived up to the lofty expectations..yet ..Hawkins was a very slow starter. I have no idea whether Matthew will make it but have zero interest in saying 2025 is a make or break year for him. I want to at least see him play a few AFL games before casting any aspirations. I do know for a fact that the coaches believe in him …he doesn’t need to be a Franklin or Riewoldt …there probably will never be players like them but if he can play his part in our young developing and promising forward line ..I’ll be happy ..

[Dee Boys 934]

On 03/02/2025 at 16:51, Young Angus said:

Oh god...you're right :(

Jeffo looks more promising that Weiderman...hopefully...can't believe we picked Weiderman ahead of both Curnow and McKay...what a shame.

Win some you lose some I guess, we got Trac because the Saints didn't pick him so that ain't bad I guess.

Based on what? Both were drafted as skinny, raw KPF prospects but Weid was picked to play a few games in his first season, and in his third had 24 touches, 7 marks and kicked 3 goals in front of 95,000 in a final at the G. 

We’re all hoping desperately that Jeffo has a (much) better career than Weid but as he enters his third season, saying he’s looked more promising so far in his career than Weid did at the same time just isn’t right.

Edited February 6 by Dee Boys

[Young Angus 873]

16 minutes ago, Dee Boys said:

Based on what? Both were drafted as skinny, raw KPF prospects but Weid was picked to play a few games in his first season, and in his third had 24 touches, 7 marks and kicked 3 goals in front of 95,000 in a final at the G. 

We’re all hoping desperately that Jeffo has a (much) better career than Weid but as he enters his third season, saying he’s looked more promising so far in his career than Weid did at the same time just isn’t right.

You're probably right there, just hopeful really, really just rooting for the kid just want him to be good for his own sake (and ours) either way I'm looking forward to Jeffo surprising us all :)

[Gator 18,053]

54 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

Riewoldt no 1 pick …Franklin no 5 pick …Amiss no 8. The King twins have def not lived up to the lofty expectations..yet ..Hawkins was a very slow starter. I have no idea whether Matthew will make it but have zero interest in saying 2025 is a make or break year for him. I want to at least see him play a few AFL games before casting any aspirations. I do know for a fact that the coaches believe in him …he doesn’t need to be a Franklin or Riewoldt …there probably will never be players like them but if he can play his part in our young developing and promising forward line ..I’ll be happy ..

Why would you think I'm referring to Nick Riewoldt when I specifically referenced Jack Riewoldt (pick 13) ?

The skinny King twins haven't lived up to their reputations due to their lack of physicality and contested ability.  You do realise that's exactly the point I'm making ?  Even then Ben played games in his first year and Max would have except for an ACL.

If 2025 isn't important to you for Jefferson what year is ?

There are mature aged key forwards who entered the system and succeeded, i.e. Podsiadly, Mihocek, Ben Brown, but how many were drafted at 18 and didn't play a game in their first two years and went on to be successful ?

[old dee 24,083]

14 minutes ago, Gator said:

Why would you think I'm referring to Nick Riewoldt when I specifically referenced Jack Riewoldt (pick 13) ?

The skinny King twins haven't lived up to their reputations due to their lack of physicality and contested ability.  You do realise that's exactly the point I'm making ?  Even then Ben played games in his first year and Max would have except for an ACL.

If 2025 isn't important to you for Jefferson what year is ?

There are mature aged key forwards who entered the system and succeeded, i.e. Podsiadly, Mihocek, Ben Brown, but how many were drafted at 18 and didn't play a game in their first two years and went on to be successful ?

Excellent question Gator! I have little idea. 

[bing181 9,473]

7 hours ago, Gator said:

There are mature aged key forwards who entered the system and succeeded, i.e. Podsiadly, Mihocek, Ben Brown, ...

Bizarre. You're just confirming what many here are trying to point out - that key forwards take time. As 18 year-olds, the players you cited there weren't even good enough to be drafted, yet alone getting AFL matches.

[rjay 25,424]

7 minutes ago, bing181 said:

that key forwards take time.

It's often quoted but I will make the point again that the good ones take time in the 1's...

People continually bring up Hawkins as an example, I don't think he played any games in the 2's.

Yes, they take time but usually at the highest level.

I would say it is time for Matty, he's had his games at Casey and now needs to stake his claim or be just another promising forward who need to take time.

[bing181 9,473]

50 minutes ago, rjay said:

People continually bring up Hawkins as an example, I don't think he played any games in the 2's.

Demonstrably untrue. He played quite a few VFL games across his first 2 seasons.

Another good example is Josh Kennedy. Sure, he was playing a handful of games in the firsts each year, but it wasn't till his 5th year that he was able to hold down a regular spot in the firsts. Even in his 4th season he was still playing WAFL games. (and not kicking all that many goals either ...).

[rjay 25,424]

14 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Demonstrably untrue. He played quite a few VFL games across his first 2 seasons.

Another good example is Josh Kennedy. Sure, he was playing a handful of games in the firsts each year, but it wasn't till his 5th year that he was able to hold down a regular spot in the firsts. Even in his 4th season he was still playing WAFL games. (and not kicking all that many goals either ...).

I couldn't find the records on Tom and trusted good old AI who told me he played none. After further searching you are correct, he played 19 senior games in his first 2 seasons which suggest a fair few in the 2's. 

I'm pretty sure Buddy was in & out in his first season or so...

...but, they still had a fair few games at senior level.

Kennedy is an interesting one...imagine if he could emulate him...

I still stand by the thought that this is the time for Jeffo to stand up or he risks being another to fall by the wayside.

I really hope he makes it, but being burned before I'm not as trusting this time around.

Edited February 6 by rjay

[58er 6,872]

12 hours ago, bing181 said:

Bizarre. You're just confirming what many here are trying to point out - that key forwards take time. As 18 year-olds, the players you cited there weren't even good enough to be drafted, yet alone getting AFL matches.

Gator.

your assertion that skinny kids can make it and that it is BS that others  need time is not reflected in the performances of many KP players more forward than back in reality.

To say Jeffo has run out of excuses is ridiculously unfair. 
Like children footballers and sportsman grow up and perform completely differently. 

Otherwise you would have all kids walking at say 1 year then debuting at 18 yrs 6 mths . 

Sport is not an exact science nor is life thank goodness. We’ll always be surprised with players and their distinctive development. You are just impatient like OD. 

All will be revealed in 2022 and ensuing seasons. 
 

[layzie 34,528]

21 hours ago, Gator said:

Why would you think I'm referring to Nick Riewoldt when I specifically referenced Jack Riewoldt (pick 13) ?

The skinny King twins haven't lived up to their reputations due to their lack of physicality and contested ability.  You do realise that's exactly the point I'm making ?  Even then Ben played games in his first year and Max would have except for an ACL.

If 2025 isn't important to you for Jefferson what year is ?

There are mature aged key forwards who entered the system and succeeded, i.e. Podsiadly, Mihocek, Ben Brown, but how many were drafted at 18 and didn't play a game in their first two years and went on to be successful ?

I'm a big proponent of giving key position players time to develop but this here is a damn good question. 

If there's any draft stat gurus out there who can extrapolate some kind of data on this I'd be very interested.  

[Slartibartfast 18,120]

Well James Podsiadly didn’t get drafted until he was in his late 20’s and he went okay.

I don’t think Jeffo will be a crash and bash forward like JvR but I can see him being successful as a forward because he’s got high footy IQ. He gets to the right spots and has clean skills.  Gunston and Hipwood come to mind.

And I don’t think there’s any doubt that he has to show something this year but it doesn’t have to be 30 goals playing every game. Solid improvement and involvement will do me. I don’t think we can underestimate how difficult it would have been playing at Casey last year with too many forwards and a non existent midfield. And he had no preseason either. I’m still holding his shares.

[Stu 1,073]

It's also important to consider the ladder position and list age / premiership window for young KPF's that played a lot of first team football (Franklin, Nick Riewoldt, Jack Riewoldt, King brothers). Young players recruited into teams that are performing well, generally have a much harder time getting senior games. 

Pair that with Hawkins who came into a very successful Cats side, who had to wait for regular games. Shannon Neale on their list is another. Played the last 3 games (dead rubbers) in 2023 (his third year), and then a solid block of games last year (4th year) and averaged 1.5 goals per game. With Hawkins retiring he will likely get regular games next season. 

Jefferson was emergency for the final 3 games last season, so he was very close to getting an opportunity like Neale, in just his second season. With Ben Brown retiring, and Petty no longer considered a permanent forward, Jefferson will get his opportunities to be the focal point at Casey, and a better platform to push for games in the seniors.

If we finish outside the 8 and Jefferson has played 0 games, it isn't a great sign. If we make a prelim or better, and he plays 0 games because our forward line has worked without him, it's much less of an issue.

 

 

[Little Goffy 14,963]

Yeesh, people getting pretty fired up here.

Seems to me like both sides of the argument of 'how much should we expect from Jefferson in 2025' are actually making their points reasonably enough but then interpreting the other side as making the extreme argument.

Nobody thinks Jefferson is a soft scrawny kid who'll never make it if he doesn't transform like a pokemon in 2025, and nobody thinks Jefferson is the second coming of Franklin.

Personally, when it comes to talls I have a reference point of the 2000 draft. Koschitzke played 20 games in his first season, Reiwoldt played only 6. Tall forwards are strange beasts.

Other top ten key position players just got on the [censored] at Carlton and were never heard from again.

[Roost it far 10,136]

Jefferson’s lack of AFL games is not the problem here. Everyone grows into the game at different rates. Some play first year like Caddy, others take 3-5. It seems clear enough that he has AFL attributes as described by Casey and track watchers. The questions that need answering are does he have the requisite hunger for the contest to be the player we all want? If he doesn’t can he adapt his game to still be a solid citizen? Or better still can he free the shackles that largely exist in the mind to become that hungry player? Comparing him to others is what we all do on here but it’s not going to give the answers we need. Let’s hope he emerges this year as a third tall because if he does we’ll all be happy.

Edited February 7 by Roost it far

[picket fence 18,184]

1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said:

Well James Podsiadly didn’t get drafted until he was in his late 20’s and he went okay.

I don’t think Jeffo will be a crash and bash forward like JvR but I can see him being successful as a forward because he’s got high footy IQ. He gets to the right spots and has clean skills.  Gunston and Hipwood come to mind.

And I don’t think there’s any doubt that he has to show something this year but it doesn’t have to be 30 goals playing every game. Solid improvement and involvement will do me. I don’t think we can underestimate how difficult it would have been playing at Casey last year with too many forwards and a non existent midfield. And he had no preseason either. I’m still holding his shares.

I'll see you and raise you DOUBLE, Slartyfast man!

[ManDee 7,395]

One of the most spectacular key forward first seasons was Allen Jakovich. Drafted as 22yo kicked 71 goals in his first season.

Note. Drafted at 22yo

Edited February 7 by ManDee
Correct goals

[Roost it far 10,136]

2 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

Well James Podsiadly didn’t get drafted until he was in his late 20’s and he went okay.

I don’t think Jeffo will be a crash and bash forward like JvR but I can see him being successful as a forward because he’s got high footy IQ. He gets to the right spots and has clean skills.  Gunston and Hipwood come to mind.

And I don’t think there’s any doubt that he has to show something this year but it doesn’t have to be 30 goals playing every game. Solid improvement and involvement will do me. I don’t think we can underestimate how difficult it would have been playing at Casey last year with too many forwards and a non existent midfield. And he had no preseason either. I’m still holding his shares.

You have to hold, theres only one guy buying!

[Axis of Bob 11,945]

The development of the key forwards is generally related to their ability to compete physically at AFL level. But I think we're all hung up on the physical size, which is only a part of that. The much bigger issue is the ability to run at an AFL level. That's where you see output from younger tall forwards, like Amiss, Cadman, Cameron, King, etc, who have the athletic ability to play AFL football even when they weren't playing as true key forwards.

The issues that Jefferson has had as a young player have been much less about his physical size (although it's partly that) and much more about his inability to run at an AFL level. The first year he really struggled to make it to contests. When he was in those contests he did OK for a young stringbean but he made it to so few of these contests that he had very minimal impact. This was especially so given the secondary role he'd play in the VFL forward line behand a number of mature talls, so the ball wasn't directed at him either. He'd have some great individual moments but they were rare because he wasn't near the ball enough. Last year his running was much better, he got to a lot more contests (albeit still below average) and had more impact as his role increased, resulting in a massive uptick in his output. As he continues to improve his running, the game will get easier for him and the skills he has will show themselves more often. 

It's much easier for us supporters to identify a skinny player than a player who lacks AFL running because you can see a skinny player from a single glance whilst the poor runner happens over a period of time. Jefferson was always going to take longer to develop because his strengths aren't athletic ones, so he needed time to build those to a level where he is no longer a liability as a senior footballer. Players like Caddy and Curnow are the exact opposite. 

[dazzledavey36 56,334]

1 hour ago, ManDee said:

One of the most spectacular key forward first seasons was Allen Jakovich. Drafted as 22yo kicked 71 goals in his first season.

Note. Drafted at 22yo

Different era

[ManDee 7,395]

4 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Different era

Your point?

Did I draw any connection with era?

My statement stands alone. Don't you think it interesting that a key position forward was drafted at 22yo , played most of his first season as a 23yo and was instantly successful? 

Yes different era, but I suspect he would be successful today. No not as a 56yo, in his prime. 😄

Edited February 7 by ManDee
Added current age