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Percentage calculation

pitmaster
in Melbourne Demons

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Sydney have won a lot of games this year by 8 - 10 goals:

  • +61 v Eagles (Optus)
  • +58 v Ess (SCG)
  • +51 v Saints (SCG)
  • +53 v WBD (SCG)
  • +73 v GWS (SCG)

So they will back themselves in to get the score needed for 2nd spot and a Home final.

However, this game is at Marvel Stadium where their results this year were:

  • -11 v WBD
  • -15 v Carlton

St Kilda's Marvel Stadium record this year is:

  • +33 v Richmond
  • +26 v GCS
  • +10 Cats
  • +53 v North
  • -35 v Ess
  • +15 v Carlton
  • -41 v Freo
  • -28 v WBD
  • +12 v Hawks

While their second half form isn't as good as the first there have bee no blow out losses; the biggest being nearly 7 goals.

 

Conclusion:  Sydney will not blow Saints out of the park by 8-10 goals.

Edited by Lucifers Hero

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    21 minutes ago, DubDee said:

    Does anyone know how the finals fixturing usually goes? Need to plan my weekend! Complicated by Father’s Day a little. 

    cats v Freo/pies Friday night?

    dees v swans Sat night?

    EF Sat arvo and sun arvo?

    just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo 🤢

    They often start the finals on the Thursday.  If so there probably won't be a Sunday afternoon game so your Father's Day should be ok.  But that could depend on who plays and where the Home games are.

    The fixture will probably be out within 24 hours of the last game tomorrow.

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    21 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    They often start the finals on the Thursday.  If so there probably won't be a Sunday afternoon game so your Father's Day should be ok.  But that could depend on who plays and where the Home games are.

    The fixture will probably be out within 24 hours of the last game tomorrow.

    Please let us not be on the Thursday night slot. They can give that to Geelong v Freo

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    24 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    They often start the finals on the Thursday.  If so there probably won't be a Sunday afternoon game so your Father's Day should be ok.  But that could depend on who plays and where the Home games are.

    The fixture will probably be out within 24 hours of the last game tomorrow.

    Oh really? Cats will get the prime spot being 1st which will be Friday. So we’ll probably be Thursday with a chance of Sat. 
     

    Thursday night finals should not be a thing!

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    1 hour ago, DubDee said:

    Does anyone know how the finals fixturing usually goes? Need to plan my weekend! Complicated by Father’s Day a little. 

    cats v Freo/pies Friday night?

    dees v swans Sat night?

    EF Sat arvo and sun arvo?

    just realised cats might get to play at Mordor if they play Freo 🤢

    Last year it is was 2v3 Friday and 1v4 on Saturday. With the other 2 games on Saturday and Sunday day 

    Edited by Garbo

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    42 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

    Please let us not be on the Thursday night slot. They can give that to Geelong v Freo

    Yes please, say no to Thurs night finals. Give it to Geelong, they had no problem scheduling our game down there on Thurs night.

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    1 hour ago, ElDiablo14 said:

    Please let us not be on the Thursday night slot. They can give that to Geelong v Freo

    Odds on they give us that slot  Thursday night with Melbourne v Sydney = ratings in two biggest cities and ad revenue. 

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    •  
    1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Sydney have won a lot of games this year by 8 - 10 goals:

    • +61 v Eagles (Optus)
    • +58 v Ess (SCG)
    • +51 v Saints (SCG)
    • +53 v WBD (SCG)
    • +73 v GWS (SCG)

    So they will back themselves in to get the score needed for 2nd spot and a Home final.

    However, this game is at Marvel Stadium where their results this year were:

    • -11 v WBD
    • -15 v Carlton

    St Kilda's Marvel Stadium record this year is:

    • +33 v Richmond
    • +26 v GCS
    • +10 Cats
    • +53 v North
    • -35 v Ess
    • +15 v Carlton
    • -41 v Freo
    • -28 v WBD
    • +12 v Hawks

    While their second half form isn't as good as the first there have bee no blow out losses; the biggest being nearly 7 goals.

     

    Conclusion:  Sydney will not blow Saints out of the park by 8-10 goals.

    I think you’re also missing the North v Swans game at Marvel recently which was 88-126. That won’t get the job done for them.

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    26 minutes ago, Bates Mate said:

    Odds on they give us that slot  Thursday night with Melbourne v Sydney = ratings in two biggest cities and ad revenue. 

    Surely you don't waste a QF on a Thursday, Thursday night should be the lowly elimination final (Brisbane v Carlton/Richmond)

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    5 hours ago, OhMyDees said:

    After last year, we deserve having a massive final on our home deck. Been a long time since battering the Hawks in 2018…

    Last time Weid actually played at AFL level as well

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    5 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

    It’s also the rest timeframe. A team who finished lower shouldn’t get an extra days rest for the upcoming game

     

    They all get a week off with the pre-finals bye.  The extra day won't make any difference.

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    Assuming Collingwood wins I’ll have a stab:

    Thu night -  Fremantle V Bulldogs

    Friday night - Geelong V Collingwood 

    Saturday twilight - Brisbane V Richmond

    Saturday night - Dees V Swans 

    With regards to Thursday nights, they’re not afraid to put a blockbuster qualifying final on that night. In 2018 they had Richmond V Hawthorn so it’s not out of the realms of possibility we cop Thu night.

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    potentially

    1 minute ago, Demonstone said:

    Ah, I see your point now.  Fair enough, too.

    Yeah. You could potentially have 8th (EF1 W) spot play 1st (QF1 L) with an extra 2+ days rest

    Edited by david_neitz_is_my_dad

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    Apologies if it's already been said but what would our % have been if we didn't concede the last two goals last night?

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    5 hours ago, Redbeard said:

    This is the cheatsheet I needed, blooming legend!!

    Saints worse loss for year 

    Against the swans in Sydney - 51 pts

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    2 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

    131.61

    It is currently 130.54

    So that would've ment Sydney need to a score a couple more goals today, I think they need like 10 goals differential today to be comfortable. 12 had we not conceded those late goals 

     

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    If you want to fill in the gaps in Grapeviney's nice table regarding % and the Saints' score, just copy and paste the following into Google search to see the score Sydney has to get to beat our percentage:

    For example, if the Saints have scored 80 points, then paste into the search field:

    =1.30546190155091*(1542+80)-1979

    that gives 138.459204316, so they need to score 139 points.  Replace 80 with whatever the Saints have scored as the match progresses.

    Edited by sue

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    1 hour ago, layzie said:

    Apologies if it's already been said but what would our % have been if we didn't concede the last two goals last night?

    Our % is The same as it would be if trac didn't get the two luckiest bounce goals I've seen this year

    Edited by Bates Mate

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    36 minutes ago, Bates Mate said:

    Our % is The same as it would be if trac didn't get the two luckiest bounce goals I've seen this year

    Not quite

    One action affects the numerator whereas the other impacts the denominator element of the equation. 

    Let us say we were at 130.

    If they score twelve points we have to score 16 to remain at 130

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