Jump to content

Featured Replies

11 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

It's time for Werridee to put together his team of average footballers who seem to play exceptional games against us. Or Demonstone could make it one of his brainteasers.

Kent Kingsley would be captain.  Supermercado often refers to him in his wonderful Demonblog.

 
39 minutes ago, Deenooos_ said:

Odds for Friday keep drifting for the pies on PointsBet:

Dees $1.37 vs Pies $3.10

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

Probably because of money wagered earlier and they don’t want too much on one team as it gets clearer on the chances.

 
5 hours ago, Redleg said:

Probably because of money wagered earlier and they don’t want too much on one team as it gets clearer on the chances.

It is 3.25 becuase that price is close the true odds of us winning the flag and the punters jumped on board after they saw what we did to Freo

I loaded up on the dees at the 3.75 you could get prior out the Freo game. I was hoping to get 4.00, but the punters were too smart and understood we are the real deal and the weight of money kept us under 4.00.

For context we were 5.50 just prior to our round 20 game last year, which was well overs (as history proved).

But the price difference between this year and last year, and the current odds for the flag, reflect the realty that there is really only two legitimate contenders this season (us and the cats), whereas as last year at this at this point in the season the dogs, lions, power and cats were all realistic contenders, as reflected by the betting market at that time (prior to round 20 last season, the dogs were fav, cats second fav, then us and then i think port or the lions).

Personally i think the true odds of us winning the flag this year are aprox 2.80, so 3.25 still represents really good value (at least on my assessment of the true odds).

I will be very surprised if we don't start the finals as clear favorites, and as short as 2.50 (it is worth nothing that only represents a 40% probability of winning the flag).  

I think the cats' true odds of winning the flags are aprox 4.00, so an option is laying them on betfair as at 3.25 i reckon they are well unders (ie under the true odds).

Edited by binman

44 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

We should be outright favourites for the flag. 

Potentially will be after we Deestroy Coll & Carlton. 
 


31 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

We should be outright favourites for the flag. 

Potentially will be after we Deestroy Coll & Carlton. 
 

Interesting discussion re the premiership odds

I was more surprised about being red hot favourites against the Pies

7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Interesting discussion re the premiership odds

I was more surprised about being red hot favourites against the Pies

Certainly short. I guess you could make a case that our form over the past 6 weeks is actually significantly stronger than theirs, when you consider who they have beat, and some of the games where they played poorly and just fell over the line. 

3 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

It's a very interesting situation and without 2 fit and in-form big forwards, we may not find out what the coaches preferred forward balancee is.  I don't mind the current balance, but it certainly worked well with two talls last year.

I tend to agree.  Lets stick with the Weid for the next couple of weeks and and allow him some consistency and continuity and not take #1 defender.  Chopping and changing in and out of the team and role is not helping his cause.  If after this run he cant impact, he may be playing elsewhere next year.

In - BBB

Out - Melk

 
4 minutes ago, BScotti said:

I tend to agree.  Lets stick with the Weid for the next couple of weeks and and allow him some consistency and continuity and not take #1 defender.  Chopping and changing in and out of the team and role is not helping his cause.  If after this run he cant impact, he may be playing elsewhere next year.

In - BBB

Out - Melk

Didn’t we already try that earlier in the year, feel like weid has been tried in every possible combination and none have worked. Time to just face facts Weid isn’t going to make it and it’s time to cut out losses and try someone different 

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

So going by the betting agencies, their is roughly the same chance of Collingwood winning on Friday night as there is MFC winning the flag?!?!   good lord


5 minutes ago, Garbo said:

Didn’t we already try that earlier in the year, feel like weid has been tried in every possible combination and none have worked. Time to just face facts Weid isn’t going to make it and it’s time to cut out losses and try someone different 

Agree

Melksham did enough to retain his spot. Can he sustain it over the next 5 plus weeks. Not sure but he's certainly performing better than his mid season inclusion

Grundy hurt his ankle in training and sent for scans.  doubt he'll get up

11 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So going by the betting agencies, their is roughly the same chance of Collingwood winning on Friday night as there is MFC winning the flag?!?!   good lord

Not the same market.  Friday night is two horse race while the Premiership still has many contenders.

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So going by the betting agencies, their is roughly the same chance of Collingwood winning on Friday night as there is MFC winning the flag?!?!   good lord

It reflects what the punters think our chances are. The betting companies continually modify the odds to balance their books. Professional punters have clearly felt Melbourne offered great value earlier this week and put big money down. If the betting companies did nothing and Melbourne win, they will have lost a lot of money. So they are trying to lure punters to bet on Collingwood by pushing the Pies odds out to make them better value. 


In a silly way I was hoping that Grundy would get up and it would stifle this nice run Cameron is on currently. 

28 hours and we will how courageous are selectors are.

12 minutes ago, layzie said:

In a silly way I was hoping that Grundy would get up and it would stifle this nice run Cameron is on currently. 

No way the filth were going to drop Cameron

1 minute ago, Winners at last said:

No way the filth were going to drop Cameron

For sure, but maybe split the time with Grundy and muck up Cameron's rhythm.

Something, anything, I just want this team to lose!

9 minutes ago, old dee said:

28 hours and we will how courageous are selectors are.

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 


9 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

Picking TMAC on one leg

10 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

If it's 2 BB and JVR

I know he's not currently in the mix, but if BBB remains injured and Weid doesn't improve I suspect the powers that be will seriously look at Joel Smith as a forward option. If nothing else he has a 'red hot go' and would at least make more of a contest than BBB and Weid. Also, his brain fades would be less damaging on the forward line than the back line.

 
48 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

I don't think Brown we pass the fitness test. That being the case it will be the Weid and JVR. I don't see them picking just JVR. 27 hours and we know.

12 minutes ago, Winners at last said:

Also, his brain fades would be less damaging on the forward line than the back line.

That's a bit harsh WAL, he was certainly like this 2017-18 (defensively) but he's been much much better in the last season and a half. He might even have been in our GF team if it wasn't for his hammy.


Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

Featured Content

  • PREVIEW: Brisbane

    And just like that, we’re Narrm again. Even though the annual AFL Sir Doug Nicholls Round which commemorates the contributions of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture to our game has been a welcome addition to our calendar for ten years, more lately it has been a portent of tough times ahead for we beleaguered Narrm supporters. Ever since the club broke through for its historic 2021 premiership, this has become a troubling time of the year for the club. For example, it all began when Melbourne rebranded itself as Narrm across the two rounds of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round to become the first club to adopt an Indigenous club name especially for the occasion. It won its first outing under the brand against lowly North Melbourne to go to 10 wins and no losses but not without a struggle or a major injury to  star winger Ed Langdon who broke his ribs and missed several weeks. In the following week, still as Narrm, the team’s 17 game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Dockers. That came along with more injuries, a plague that remained with them for the remainder of the season until, beset by injuries, the Dees were eliminated from the finals in straight sets. It was even worse last year, when Narrm inexplicably lowered its colours in Perth to the Waalit Marawar Eagles. Oh, the shame of it all! At least this year, if there is a corner to turn around, it has to be in the direction of something better. To that end, I produced a special pre-game chant in the local Narrm language - “nam mi:wi winnamun katjil prolin ambi ngamar thamelin amb” which roughly translated is “every heart beats true for the red and the blue.” >y belief is that if all of the Narrm faithful recite it long enough, then it might prove to be the only way to beat the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Sunday. The Lions are coming off a disappointing draw at Marvel Stadium against a North Melbourne team that lacks the ability and know how to win games (except when playing Melbourne). Brisbane are, however, a different kettle of fish at home and have very few positional weaknesses. They are a midfield powerhouse, strong in defence and have plenty of forward options, particularly their small and medium sized players, to kick a winning score this week after the sting of last week’s below par performance.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • REPORT: Hawthorn

    There was a time during the current Melbourne cycle that goes back to before the premiership when the club was the toughest to beat in the fourth quarter. The Demons were not only hard to beat at any time but it was virtually impossible to get the better them when scores were close at three quarter time. It was only three or four years ago but they were fit, strong and resilient in body and mind. Sadly, those days are over. This has been the case since the club fell off its pedestal about 12 months ago after it beat Geelong and then lost to Carlton. In both instances, Melbourne put together strong, stirring final quarters, one that resulted in victory, the other, in defeat. Since then, the drop off has been dramatic to the point where it can neither pull off victory in close matches, nor can it even go down in defeat  gallantly.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • CASEY: Footscray

    At twenty-four minutes into the third term of the game between the Casey Demons and Footscray VFL at Whitten Oval, the visitors were coasting. They were winning all over the ground, had the ascendancy in the ruck battles and held a 26 point lead on a day perfect for football. What could go wrong? Everything. The Bulldogs moved into overdrive in the last five minutes of the term and booted three straight goals to reduce the margin to a highly retrievable eight points at the last break. Bouyed by that effort, their confidence was on a high level during the interval and they ran all over the despondent Demons and kicked another five goals to lead by a comfortable margin of four goals deep into the final term before Paddy Cross kicked a couple of too late goals for a despondent Casey. A testament to their lack of pressure in the latter stages of the game was the fact that Footscray’s last ten scoring shots were nine goals and one rushed behind. Things might have been different for the Demons who went into the game after last week’s bye with 12 AFL listed players. Blake Howes was held over for the AFL game but two others, Jack Billings and Taj Woewodin (not officially listed as injured) were also missing and they could have been handy at the end. Another mystery of the current VFL system.

    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • PREGAME: Brisbane

    The Demons head back out on the road in Round 10 when they travel to Queensland to take on the reigning Premiers and the top of the table Lions who look very formidable. Can the Dees cause a massive upset? Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Love
      • Like
    • 130 replies
    Demonland
  • PODCAST: Hawthorn

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 12th May @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Demons loss to the Hawks. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

    • 52 replies
    Demonland
  • POSTGAME: Hawthorn

    Wayward kicking for goal, dump kicks inside 50 and some baffling umpiring all contributed to the Dees not getting out to an an early lead that may have impacted the result. At the end of the day the Demons were just not good enough and let the Hawks run away with their first win against the Demons in 7 years.

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 374 replies
    Demonland