CHANGES: Rd 21 vs Collingwood

[Demonstone 22,820]

11 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

It's time for Werridee to put together his team of average footballers who seem to play exceptional games against us. Or Demonstone could make it one of his brainteasers.

Kent Kingsley would be captain.  Supermercado often refers to him in his wonderful Demonblog.

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

39 minutes ago, Deenooos_ said:

Odds for Friday keep drifting for the pies on PointsBet:

Dees $1.37 vs Pies $3.10

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

[Redleg 41,451]

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

Probably because of money wagered earlier and they don’t want too much on one team as it gets clearer on the chances.

[binman 43,810]

5 hours ago, Redleg said:

Probably because of money wagered earlier and they don’t want too much on one team as it gets clearer on the chances.

It is 3.25 becuase that price is close the true odds of us winning the flag and the punters jumped on board after they saw what we did to Freo

I loaded up on the dees at the 3.75 you could get prior out the Freo game. I was hoping to get 4.00, but the punters were too smart and understood we are the real deal and the weight of money kept us under 4.00.

For context we were 5.50 just prior to our round 20 game last year, which was well overs (as history proved).

But the price difference between this year and last year, and the current odds for the flag, reflect the realty that there is really only two legitimate contenders this season (us and the cats), whereas as last year at this at this point in the season the dogs, lions, power and cats were all realistic contenders, as reflected by the betting market at that time (prior to round 20 last season, the dogs were fav, cats second fav, then us and then i think port or the lions).

Personally i think the true odds of us winning the flag this year are aprox 2.80, so 3.25 still represents really good value (at least on my assessment of the true odds).

I will be very surprised if we don't start the finals as clear favorites, and as short as 2.50 (it is worth nothing that only represents a 40% probability of winning the flag).  

I think the cats' true odds of winning the flags are aprox 4.00, so an option is laying them on betfair as at 3.25 i reckon they are well unders (ie under the true odds).

Edited August 3, 2022 by binman

[1964_2 2,357]

44 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

We should be outright favourites for the flag. 

Potentially will be after we Deestroy Coll & Carlton. 
 

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

31 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

We should be outright favourites for the flag. 

Potentially will be after we Deestroy Coll & Carlton. 
 

Interesting discussion re the premiership odds

I was more surprised about being red hot favourites against the Pies

[1964_2 2,357]

7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Interesting discussion re the premiership odds

I was more surprised about being red hot favourites against the Pies

Certainly short. I guess you could make a case that our form over the past 6 weeks is actually significantly stronger than theirs, when you consider who they have beat, and some of the games where they played poorly and just fell over the line. 

[BScotti 178]

3 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

It's a very interesting situation and without 2 fit and in-form big forwards, we may not find out what the coaches preferred forward balancee is.  I don't mind the current balance, but it certainly worked well with two talls last year.

I tend to agree.  Lets stick with the Weid for the next couple of weeks and and allow him some consistency and continuity and not take #1 defender.  Chopping and changing in and out of the team and role is not helping his cause.  If after this run he cant impact, he may be playing elsewhere next year.

In - BBB

Out - Melk

[Garbo 1,542]

4 minutes ago, BScotti said:

I tend to agree.  Lets stick with the Weid for the next couple of weeks and and allow him some consistency and continuity and not take #1 defender.  Chopping and changing in and out of the team and role is not helping his cause.  If after this run he cant impact, he may be playing elsewhere next year.

In - BBB

Out - Melk

Didn’t we already try that earlier in the year, feel like weid has been tried in every possible combination and none have worked. Time to just face facts Weid isn’t going to make it and it’s time to cut out losses and try someone different 

[DubDee 26,121]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Used to think the odds reflected the smart thinking but not anymore

Apparently we are still almost equal favourite with Geelong for the flag at around $3.25

So going by the betting agencies, their is roughly the same chance of Collingwood winning on Friday night as there is MFC winning the flag?!?!   good lord

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

5 minutes ago, Garbo said:

Didn’t we already try that earlier in the year, feel like weid has been tried in every possible combination and none have worked. Time to just face facts Weid isn’t going to make it and it’s time to cut out losses and try someone different 

Agree

Melksham did enough to retain his spot. Can he sustain it over the next 5 plus weeks. Not sure but he's certainly performing better than his mid season inclusion

[DubDee 26,121]

Grundy hurt his ankle in training and sent for scans.  doubt he'll get up

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Also looks like Mason keeps his spot as Grundy is all but ruled out. 

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/grundy-setback-for-magpies-blue-blow-with-newman-out-north-s-tough-decision-20220803-p5b6wa.html

[Demonstone 22,820]

11 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So going by the betting agencies, their is roughly the same chance of Collingwood winning on Friday night as there is MFC winning the flag?!?!   good lord

Not the same market.  Friday night is two horse race while the Premiership still has many contenders.

[Stu 969]

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So going by the betting agencies, their is roughly the same chance of Collingwood winning on Friday night as there is MFC winning the flag?!?!   good lord

It reflects what the punters think our chances are. The betting companies continually modify the odds to balance their books. Professional punters have clearly felt Melbourne offered great value earlier this week and put big money down. If the betting companies did nothing and Melbourne win, they will have lost a lot of money. So they are trying to lure punters to bet on Collingwood by pushing the Pies odds out to make them better value. 

[layzie 34,013]

In a silly way I was hoping that Grundy would get up and it would stifle this nice run Cameron is on currently. 

[old dee 23,872]

28 hours and we will how courageous are selectors are.

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

12 minutes ago, layzie said:

In a silly way I was hoping that Grundy would get up and it would stifle this nice run Cameron is on currently. 

No way the filth were going to drop Cameron

[layzie 34,013]

1 minute ago, Winners at last said:

No way the filth were going to drop Cameron

For sure, but maybe split the time with Grundy and muck up Cameron's rhythm.

Something, anything, I just want this team to lose!

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

9 minutes ago, old dee said:

28 hours and we will how courageous are selectors are.

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

[John Demonic 5,850]

9 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

Picking TMAC on one leg

[loges 6,767]

10 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

If it's 2 BB and JVR

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

I know he's not currently in the mix, but if BBB remains injured and Weid doesn't improve I suspect the powers that be will seriously look at Joel Smith as a forward option. If nothing else he has a 'red hot go' and would at least make more of a contest than BBB and Weid. Also, his brain fades would be less damaging on the forward line than the back line.

[old dee 23,872]

48 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Which is the most courageous decision? Picking one KPF or two? If one, is it more courageous to pick B Brown, Weideman or van Rooyen? If two, which combination? 

I don't think Brown we pass the fitness test. That being the case it will be the Weid and JVR. I don't see them picking just JVR. 27 hours and we know.

[In Harmes Way 7,823]

12 minutes ago, Winners at last said:

Also, his brain fades would be less damaging on the forward line than the back line.

That's a bit harsh WAL, he was certainly like this 2017-18 (defensively) but he's been much much better in the last season and a half. He might even have been in our GF team if it wasn't for his hammy.