NON-MFC: Round 19, 2022

[BDA 22,735]

9 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Can't see it myself. I reckon Gold Coast have a much bigger chance against Brisbane and Port are a definite chance against Geelong. Gold Coast & Port will be definitely motivated by last night's result (unfortunately so will the Bulldogs!).

Agree re Port. Hoping they can skin the Cats tonight

[Macca 16,922]

1 hour ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Freo drawing is of course a marginally better result for us than them winning, but given they were 12% behind us on percentage (and 5.4% compared to Brisbane, 16.4% to Geelong) it's basically the same as a win compared to the sides above them on the ladder, as they were never going to make up the percentage anyway (definitely in the case of Melbourne & Geelong). A Richmond win would have been so so much better from a Melbourne perspective.

From a Freo perspective it's the same as a loss to all the teams below them who all have much worse percentages (and possibly to Sydney who have virtually the same percentage). The results against Melbourne and the Bulldogs are crucial over the next 2 weeks.

Our team benefits extremely marginally (see above) but I agree all the teams below Freo benefit significantly. Freo's destiny is still in their hands. Win the last 4 and they finish above Melbourne (assuming Melbourne losses against Brisbane in the last round) which is exactly the same as if they'd won against Richmond.

I wouldn't be assuming that the percentage can't be made up ... Freo had 2 potential percentage boosters to finish the season so unless there is another draw, those potential percentage boosters are now irrelevant ... so that advantage is gone too

Teams above Freo that lose games lose percentage as well

A draw is obviously better than a loss but a win is still a better result

As it stands, at this time of the year it could be assumed that all your rivals will keep winning thus continually gaining 4 premiership points

So therefore, drawing the game last night has probably cost Freo a top 2 spot ... and that's ultra valuable

Also, one of their closest rival for a top 4 spot (Pies with a poor percentage) can now go half a win clear if they defeat Essendon tomorrow

Edited July 23, 2022 by Macca

[layzie 33,752]

I guess you could say the draw was half way between the benefit of a win and the ramifications of a loss.

Who, the hell, would have thought..

[Dr. Gonzo 24,175]

1 hour ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I fell asleep due to a big week, why such the low score at Marvel? Are Freo slightly overrated?

Lobb out hurt them they were pretty sound structurally in the 2nd half but just couldn't get that forward connection (sound familiar?)

They had a stat on Fox footy, first half Richmond went from D50 to F50 55% of the time - 2nd half it was 5%!! Another stat Freo turned it over 40 times (not sure if it was for the whole game or just 2nd half) and Richmond only scored 7 pts. Ludicrously low.

They're so well set up behind the footy and they make their half time adjustments, very reminiscent of us last year. I still think the GF is played off out of two of us, Freo and Geel.

[Macca 16,922]

At the end of the season if Freo finish behind Collingwood by half a game (but with a much better percentage) then last night's draw will have cost them 

[BDA 22,735]

There'll be no upset at the SCG. Swans tearing the Crows a new one

[Sir Why You Little 36,972]

2 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Freo drawing is of course a marginally better result for us than them winning, but given they were 12% behind us on percentage (and 5.4% compared to Brisbane, 16.4% to Geelong) it's basically the same as a win compared to the sides above them on the ladder, as they were never going to make up the percentage anyway (definitely in the case of Melbourne & Geelong). A Richmond win would have been so so much better from a Melbourne perspective.

From a Freo perspective it's the same as a loss to all the teams below them who all have much worse percentages (and possibly to Sydney who have virtually the same percentage). The results against Melbourne and the Bulldogs are crucial over the next 2 weeks.

Our team benefits extremely marginally (see above) but I agree all the teams below Freo benefit significantly. Freo's destiny is still in their hands. Win the last 4 and they finish above Melbourne (assuming Melbourne losses against Brisbane in the last round) which is exactly the same as if they'd won against Richmond.

Yes, obviously but the point here is that a draw means different things depending on what your percentage is relative to the sides above and below you. As I've said above, Fremantle's draw is essentially the same as a win against the teams above  them and a loss to the teams below them.

No. It puts extra pressure and doubt in their minds. They didn’t win and should have. The 8 is still wide open. The Shockers blew a big chance. 
A draw is as good as a win in Round 23, after September has been reached. 
Not in Round 19

[layzie 33,752]

There will be no encore, Adelaide are toast. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,539]

Pity that the Hawks don't play any of the contenders in the remaining rounds unless you include the Dogs in round 23

[Sir Why You Little 36,972]

TANKING IS ALIVE AND WELL

Care to make a Comment Wilson???

[spirit of norm smith 16,276]

Some youngsters to shout out

Hayden Young from Freo is an excellent young player.  Great kicking skills. 
 

Conor Macdonald from the Hawks is a seriously good youngster. Good pace. Moves effortlessly. Footskills are excellent.  
 

Dylan Stephens from Swans. His burst of pace and has ability to hit targets. They have a great bunch of young fast kids. Stephens. Warner. Gulden. Florent. Campbell.  Very attacking team. 

[ANG13 2,062]

Adelaide to their credit have fought back well since the first quarter. 

[dees189227 12,373]

Go Port Adelaide, please win

[Demonland 71,592]

1 minute ago, dees189227 said:

Go Port Adelaide, please win

No chance of that happening.

[Lucifers Hero 39,596]

I'm optimistic about Port beating the Cats at Adelaide Oval.

A repeat the 2021 QF performance therel will do just fine.  Both teams kicked poorly.  Result:

Port: 12.14.86 d Cats 5.13.43

Edited July 23, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[layzie 33,752]

If they do then there will be some serious head bobble if we win tonight. 

[Jibroni 4,987]

Never thought I would say this but c'mon Port

[dees189227 12,373]

Nice start by Port

[Sir Why You Little 36,972]

C’mon PAP

[BDA 22,735]

Good start Port.

Powell Pepper couldn't hit a barn door last week and has nailed that long range goal today

[Lucifers Hero 39,596]

Sydney's poor kicking (4.11) in 2nd and 3rd qtrs has cost them a significant % boost.

It may cost them a top 4 spot.

[whatwhat say what 22,696]

karl amon with an atrocious kick across goal

[Mr Steve 3,820]

2 hours ago, layzie said:

There will be no encore, Adelaide are toast. 

Adelaide have a big game to win next week, they are holding it back till it matters.

[SFebes 4,884]

Come on Port - they are looking "on" early.

[layzie 33,752]

If you want 42 million bucks you don't kick like that.