Top 8 Now Fixed - according to history

[Maldonboy38 6,405]

I can't accept that the final 8 is settled. With Port and the Bulldogs still capable on any given day, Richmond capable of both collapsing AND finding form, a lot of variables remain.

And I remain unconvinced about the Blues. It might just be my absolute hatred of anything Carlton, but I see them finishing about 10th.

[daisycutter 29,622]

I can't wait for the grand final at the G

LET ME BE THERE

 

[BAMF 4,358]

1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

i'm not sure that's even close to being correct

off the top of my head, peptides lost 83 to hawks and then won 84 and 85 against the same team, then won in 86 vs carlton then lost to them in 87, and then won back to backs in 88 and 89

meth coke lost in 91 then won in 92

north lost 98 but won in 99

meth coke also lost 05 and then won in 06 - both against swans

cats lost 08 and then won 09

most recently, hawks lost the 2012 gf and then win the next three in a row

 

Add Lions vs Pies two years in a row 2002 and 03

[titan_uranus 25,020]

The general argument is that by Round 8, historically there are few changes to the top 8 from then on.

You only have to go back to last year to find an example of a year where the top 8 changed after Round 9. At Round 9 last year West Coast and Richmond sat 7th and 8th, whilst GWS was 9th and Essendon 12th. Obviously the latter two ended up switching with the former two come finals time.

This year, there is little separating Sydney (currently 4th) from Gold Coast (currently 13th), given the latter just beat the former last week. The Dogs and Port sit 9th and 10th, both will be pressing for finals.

2 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

i'm not sure that's even close to being correct

off the top of my head, peptides lost 83 to hawks and then won 84 and 85 against the same team, then won in 86 vs carlton then lost to them in 87, and then won back to backs in 88 and 89

meth coke lost in 91 then won in 92

north lost 98 but won in 99

meth coke also lost 05 and then won in 06 - both against swans

cats lost 08 and then won 09

most recently, hawks lost the 2012 gf and then win the next three in a row

Collingwood 2002 and then again 2003.

St Kilda 2009 and then 2010 as well.

No idea what the OP was trying to get at with that line.

Edited May 15, 2022 by titan_uranus

[Demon17 5,188]

4 hours ago, Mr Steve said:

8 is far from settled. At least two teams will drop out. 

30 years of history says otherwise but there’s a firsy time for everything I guess

[Demon17 5,188]

3 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

I reject the premise of this thread.

The Swans lost the first 6 one year and made it. 

It looks like 12 wins will be needed this year. 

Great example. 1 out of 240 chances over 30 years.

The premise still stands with the odd outlier.

[Demon17 5,188]

3 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

How can you forget the infamous 1987 and 1988 seasons

Hawthorn

Good call but I am looking at the modern afl era from 1992

[Guest]

Just now, Demon17 said:

Good call but I am looking at the modern afl era from 1992

Are you channelling SWYL from the Amon thread? Back down now while you have the chance. The facts underlying the premise of your thread have been proven incorrect. Or maybe reframe the question/statement? 

[Adam The God 30,287]

9 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

I don’t rate Richmond. Dusty has been a tremendous player and is still good but he is not the unstoppable force he once was. Cotchin, Riewoldt, Grimes are past their best. Bolton is a great player at times bug not a reliable match winner. Then quite a lot of players who are good but not A grade. They may well make the 8 but won’t go far after that.

Brisbane is the really interesting one. The old saying is, a good defence will always beat a good attack. When we play them, that will really be tested.

This is why, for me, despite today's performance, Freo are our biggest challenger. Their brand will stack up, it's just whether they can bring it consistently. Fyfe in will be huge for them I reckon and I wonder if they tire in the second half of the season.

Brisbane have a great midfield (that can be exposed for pace) and probably the best forward half in the league, but their defence is not as good as ours, so I tend to live by your last phrase when analysing footy. A great defence will beat a great attack, and since our attack comes off the back of defence, I'd be very surprised if Brisbane beat us in a final. 

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

@WheeloRatings - could you tell us what herbs and spices make up your attack and defence metrics?

Cheerio.

[Diamond_Jim 12,598]

Ok

GWS down....no top 8

That still leaves 14 teams

 

[Rob Mac...... 638]

17 hours ago, Demon17 said:

..never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

I'm surprised no one mentioned Melbourne losing the 1958 GF, then winning it in 1959

[durango 2,008]

5 hours ago, Rob Mac...... said:

I'm surprised no one mentioned Melbourne losing the 1958 GF, then winning it in 1959

Also Hawthorn lost in 2012 and won in 2013.

[Fork 'em 6,984]

Well .... According to history it won't matter who's in the 8.
The last 2 times Melbourne went 9-0 they won the flag.
 




 

Edited May 15, 2022 by Fork 'em

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

12 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

@WheeloRatings - could you tell us what herbs and spices make up your attack and defence metrics?

Cheerio.

In simple terms, the attack metric is based on whether teams score above or below average and the defence metric is based on whether teams concede above or below average. Instead of using a team's actual score, their score is calculated using a weighted average of their actual score and the score they would have kicked had they kicked at an expected accuracy. So a team that scores 9.22.76 (like Melbourne did against Richmond) will be credited with a much higher score than 76. I don't have Melbourne's adjusted score at hand, but the adjusted margin was 60 points instead of 22 which better reflects their dominance.

The attack and defence metrics are updated following each match based on these "adjusted" scores compared to the expected scores. If a team's adjusted score is higher than expected, their attack rating increases (and vice versa). If their opponent's adjusted score is higher than expected, their defensive rating decreases (and vice versa).

I have an unfinished page on my site which provides some more detail:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_methodology.html

In addition, teams carry over ~65% of their rating from the previous year so Melbourne's overall rating dropped from 32.1 at the end of 2021 to 20.5 at the beginning of 2022.

FYI, this is Melbourne's rating progression since round 22 last year which shows Melbourne's rating is almost back to the pre-Grand Final level.

Let me know if you need any additional information!

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

23 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

I reject the premise of this thread.

The Swans lost the first 6 one year and made it. 

It looks like 12 wins will be needed this year. 

Based on my simulations, 12 wins (& 0 draws) gives you about a 54% chance of making the top 8 and would likely then come down to percentage. 48 points and a percentage of 106 is roughly 50-50 to make the top 8.

[Fat Tony 5,253]

11 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Based on my simulations, 12 wins (& 0 draws) gives you about a 54% chance of making the top 8 and would likely then come down to percentage. 48 points and a percentage of 106 is roughly 50-50 to make the top 8.

The squiggle predictor currently has Richmond finishing in eighth on 12.9 wins and WBD on ninth with 11.1 wins.

 https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

[Lucifers Hero 39,975]

2 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

The squiggle predictor currently has Richmond finishing in eighth on 12.9 wins and WBD on ninth with 11.1 wins.

 https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

Good to see squiggle has us nearly 2 games +% clear of 2nd.  Home Finals here we come!!

[Fat Tony 5,253]

1 minute ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Good to see squiggle has us nearly 2 games +% clear of 2nd.  Home Finals here we come!!

It has us losing 3.6 games in the last 13. I don't know if I can cope with that much losing!

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,816]

On 5/15/2022 at 7:50 AM, Demon17 said:

Over the last 30 years, the Final 8 is settled by Round 9 and only the order of the 8 changes.

Thus we can say now the Pies, Power, Dogs and Hawks have missed out.

And the average annual movement in and out of the 8 is 2.8 teams, rounded up to 3. So this year is an outlier with 4 new teams from last year.

My argument there is that in 2021, the Dons were a false dawn and should not have made the 8, so they don't count this year as a failed finalist, and the Tiges are back where they belong talent-wise anway.

Great to see Freo make it..  And the Dogs slip up.  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

In other words when the Dees beat you, you stay beaten.

"Fact check on aisle 1"

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

1 minute ago, Fat Tony said:

The squiggle predictor currently has Richmond finishing in eighth on 12.9 wins and WBD on ninth with 11.1 wins.

 https://squiggle.com.au/ladder/

Yeah I have them at 12.4 and 11.0.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

There's definitely a gap opening up, but having said that, this time last year I had Richmond at 12.8 wins and a 68% chance of top 8 and GWS at 10.9 wins and a 38% chance of top 8.

[Lucifers Hero 39,975]

10 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yeah I have them at 12.4 and 11.0.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

There's definitely a gap opening up, but having said that, this time last year I had Richmond at 12.8 wins and a 68% chance of top 8 and GWS at 10.9 wins and a 38% chance of top 8.

You also have us with 18.4 wins.  Out of interest which games do we lose?

[WheeloRatings 1,163]

1 minute ago, Lucifers Hero said:

You also have us with 18.4 wins.  Out of interest which games do we lose?

Here are Melbourne's expected margin and win percentage for each game based on my model. Melbourne are favourites in all but the last game against Brisbane at this stage. The 3.6 losses is based on the win probability for each match - so a 50-50 game is counted as 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses.

By the way, Melbourne's probability of winning all 22 games is 3.8%! 😁

[Lucifers Hero 39,975]

Thank you.

If I 'convert' your table to actual games my thoughts are:

• We will smash Geelong at Kardinia Park.  They are our bunnies! 🙃
• Agree with the lower probability for Freo and Lions as their Home games. 
• Reckon we have the Bulldogs spooked even at Marvel.
• Reckon Sydney and maybe Port are risky games.

Therein are the 3-4 losses.

[Katrina Dee Fan 3,739]

On 5/15/2022 at 7:50 AM, Demon17 said:

  But again, never has a losing GF team made the GF the following year.

Except for Collingwood in 1902 (they lost in 1901)

or Fitzory in 1904 (they lost in 1903)

or Collingwood in 1919 (they lost in 1918)

or Richmond in 1920 (they lost in 1919)

or Collingwood in 1927 (they lost in 1926)

or Geelong in 1931 (they lost in 1930)

or Richmond in 1932 (they lost in 1931)

or Richmond in 1934 (they lost in 1933)

or Essendon in 1942 (they lost in 1941)

or Richmond in 1943 (they lost in 1942)

or Essendon in 1949 (they lost in 1948)

or Collingwood in 1953 (they lost in 1942)

or Melbourne in 1955 (they lost in 1954)

or Melbourne in 1959 (they lost in 1958)

or St Kilda in 1966 (they lost in 1965)

or Carlton in 1970 (they lost in 1969)

or Richmond in 1973 (they lost in 1972)

or North Melbourne in 1975 (they lost in 1974)

or Hawthorn in 1976 (they lost in 1975)

or North Melbourne in 1977 (they lost in 1976)

Or Essendon in 1984 (they lost in 1983)

or Hawthorn in 1986 (they lost in 1985)

Or Hawthorn in 1988 (they lost in 1987)

Or West Coast in 1992 (they lost in 1991)

or North Melbourne in 1999 (they lost in 1998)

or West Coast in 2006 (they lost in 2005)

or Geelong in 2009 (they lost in 2008)

or Hawthorn in 2013 (they lost in 2012)