GRAND FINAL: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

[binman 44,525]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

No way I love it!!

I'm confused.

Do you love it? 

Or there is no way you will ever love it?

[Robbie57 2,026]

Just emerging after Friday night. Family in Perth went and now have tickets to the big dance. It weird that after all the years our staunchest fans wont be there but like many others I felt very connected to my fellow demons.  However the lid is not off yet.

[In Harmes Way 7,840]

49 minutes ago, binman said:

I'm confused.

Do you love it? 

Or there is no way you will ever love it?

Are you Demonstone in disguise?

[pinkshark 950]

Dont know what to say don't know what to write.  Want to say something profound and inspiring but again, it means nothing.  I'm all over the effing shop!  blah wahblahyayada yada yada.  kjbfiuryshvio;asuxfiojsio'g.mn,buyth.

All that matters is how we perform in the grand final.

Come on MFC!!!!

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,557]

12 hours ago, bingers said:

Sportsbet odds      Demons  $1.64   Bulldogs  $2.26

Gotta like them odds...

[binman 44,525]

1 hour ago, In Harmes Way said:

Are you Demonstone in disguise?

Let's just say we are never in the same room together.

[Demonstone 23,338]

1 hour ago, In Harmes Way said:

Are you Demonstone in disguise?

Let's just say we are never in the same room together.

[binman 44,525]

18 hours ago, Mickey said:

Interesting listening to David King on SEN today, for those who are all in on the dogs.

They beat us in rnd 19 by 20 points. The expected score (I know, strange stat) for that game had it as a draw. They also scored the lost points ever from forward 50 stoppages. That won't happen again.

 So, if we score at at least the AFL average  and don't let them score a record for forward 50 stoppages, we win.

The dogs won't beat us. Only we can lose this.

I'm not disagreeing with the point he is making about the round 19 game, but fair dinkum, David King is all over the shop. He swings more than marriages in the1970's. 

He gets a direct mainline of champion data stats and whatever he bangs on about is directly related to what he has read before he comes on air.

In that same slot last week, or perhaps on First crack (he just repeats his talking points on that show the following day on SEN) he said the Cats v Dees PF was  'a genuine 50 50 game'.

A 50 - 50 game? Please. What load of nonsense. 

And this is not hindsight.

The bookies had us at $1.50 to win that game, not even money. And before anyone says the dogs win show that punting odds are meaningless $1.50 still gives the other team at 30 odd percent chance of winning.

Of course the odds not absolute. But they are very good measure of probability (i think the most reliable measure), particularly when pools are as big as they were for the PF, because there is real investment, most of which by professional punters who back their expertise with real money, not glib opinions. 

Part of his rationale for the PF being a flip of the coin game was how close the round 23 game was and the fact thta the cats jumped out to a big lead. Which is just ridiculous.

Why?

Because in that game I'm pretty sure the Champion data 'expected score' had us wining by 4-5 goals. From memory Goody even referenced it in his post match presser.

So this week the 'expected score' is relevant for his assessment of the outcome of the GF, but wasn't for the PF?

And as goody also noted the stats at half time all looked how we like them to look, with the exception of the scores from centre clearances (an outlier as goody noted - which by the by is an interesting parallel to the Round 19 inside 50 stoppage goals as Goody noted that stat was an outlier too in his post match presser) and the goals we gave up in the second quarter. 

King, and many others, completely misread that game from a form perspective.

Way too much weight was put on their 44 point lead and nowhere enough on the fact they could only manage 2 goals (and only 5 scoring shots?) in the second half of a must win game. 

Or the fact that their leaders - Hawkins, Selwood and Dangerfield went missing in that last quarter. Or for that matter the utter toweling Max gave Stanley, another leader, in the last quarter. 

All of those factors pointed to the probability of what would happen in the PF - and ultimately did happen. And those factors are why the weight of money had us at $1.50 to win that game.

And King, a fella employed by Fox to do expert analysis, missed EVERY SINGLE one of them.

 

 

[Mickey 4,756]

22 minutes ago, binman said:

I'm not disagreeing with the point he is making about the round 19 game, but fair dinkum, David King is all over the shop. He swings more than marriages in the1970's. 

He gets a direct mainline of champion data stats and whatever he bangs on about is directly related to what he has read before he comes on air.

In that same slot last week, or perhaps on First crack (he just repeats his talking points on that show the following day on SEN) he said the Cats v Dees PF was  'a genuine 50 50 game'.

A 50 - 50 game? Please. What load of nonsense. 

And this is not hindsight.

The bookies had us at $1.50 to win that game, not even money. And before anyone says the dogs win show that punting odds are meaningless $1.50 still gives the other team at 30 odd percent chance of winning.

Of course the odds not absolute. But they are very good measure of probability (i think the most reliable measure), particularly when pools are as big as they were for the PF, because there is real investment, most of which by professional punters who back their expertise with real money, not glib opinions. 

Part of his rationale for the PF being a flip of the coin game was how close the round 23 game was and the fact thta the cats jumped out to a big lead. Which is just ridiculous.

Why?

Because in that game I'm pretty sure the Champion data 'expected score' had us wining by 4-5 goals. From memory Goody even referenced it in his post match presser.

So this week the 'expected score' is relevant for his assessment of the outcome of the GF, but wasn't for the PF?

And as goody also noted the stats at half time all looked how we like them to look, with the exception of the scores from centre clearances (an outlier as goody noted - which by the by is an interesting parallel to the Round 19 inside 50 stoppage goals as Goody noted that stat was an outlier too in his post match presser) and the goals we gave up in the second quarter. 

King, and many others, completely misread that game from a form perspective.

Way too much weight was put on their 44 point lead and nowhere enough on the fact they could only manage 2 goals (and only 5 scoring shots?) in the second half of a must win game. 

Or the fact that their leaders - Hawkins, Selwood and Dangerfield went missing in that last quarter. Or for that matter the utter toweling Max gave Stanley, another leader, in the last quarter. 

All of those factors pointed to the probability of what would happen in the PF - and ultimately did happen. And those factors are why the weight of money had us at $1.50 to win that game.

And King, a fella employed by Fox to do expert analysis, missed EVERY SINGLE one of them.

 

 

I agree he cherry picks, and he changes his mind every week. But if he hadn't in this case, which conclusion would have changed? The PF result. Which gives me confidence perhaps the Dogs win in rnd 19 is being overblown in importance.

I hope the odds are indicative of what will happen in 2 weeks. It would be a good result for us.

[Jaded No More 68,975]

This is your daily reminder that we have in fact made the grand final. It was not a weird dream you had after too much drinking.

Stay calm, keep positive, and remember there are only 11 sleeps to go!

[binman 44,525]

25 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Which gives me confidence perhaps the Dogs win in round 19 is being overblown in importance.

I hope the odds are indicative of what will happen in 2 weeks. It would be a good result for us.

I 100% agree the round 19 game is of limited value as a form reference. 

But King is just as likely to laud the genius of the Bont next week and change his tune and make it a 'genuine 50 50 game".

For what it's worth i reckon the current odds (dees $1.64 to win) are about right. 

And i reckon our 7 point line is excellent value. 

Edited September 14, 2021 by binman

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,557]

Just a little sidelight in the build-up: Demonland posts sit at a tick over 1.9 million. What chance these 2 extraordinary weeks take us through the 2 mill? I feel like we're tracking well - I know I've found an extra gear (as some may have noticed😏...)

[Ted Lasso 19,549]

for me if you look at the midfields and forward lines, i see them as being pretty even, but ruck and backline we have a clear advantage, we're probably stronger at the contest and they're probably a bit more classy on the outside. 

for me it's going to be really simple, win the contest, deny them the outside time and space with pressure, and take our chances, we should be too strong. 

Max Gawn plays anything like he did against the Cats and it won't matter what they do

[binman 44,525]

Perth 28-Day Rainfall Forecast

Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat
		14	15 High	16 High	17 Low	18 High
19 Low	20	21	22	23	24 Med	25 Dees win
26	27	28	29	30	Oct 1	2
3 Low	4	5 Low	6	7 Low	8 Med	9
10	11	12 Low

CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT

Nil

< 25%

Low

25 - 50%

Medium

50 - 75%

High

≥ 75%

Edited September 14, 2021 by binman

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

Perth 28-Day Rainfall Forecast

Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat
		14	15 High	16 High	17 Low	18 High
19 Low	20	21	22	23	24 Med	25 Dees win
26	27	28	29	30	Oct 1	2
3 Low	4	5 Low	6	7 Low	8 Med	9
10	11	12 Low

CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT

Nil

< 25%

Low

25 - 50%

Medium

50 - 75%

High

≥ 75%

Given the reputation of weather experts, can we get them to forecast a Dogs win?

[Longsufferingnomore 1,670]

I now feel confident enough to put this up. 1964 cup. We need another one.

[Longsufferingnomore 1,670]

2 minutes ago, longsuffering said:

I now feel confident enough to put this up. 1964 cup. We need another one.

Sorry all you tech freaks but it should have read" the 1964 Cup - we need another one" Woops

[sue 9,188]

18 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

Given the reputation of weather experts, can we get them to forecast a Dogs win?

Come on MR, don't knock the BoM.  Us oldies recall when they were lucky to forecast 1 day ahead - indeed their forecasts weren't much better than just predicting tomorrow = today).  Now we whinge if they get it wrong a week ahead.  Of course there will still be errors particularly in difficult regions, but forecasting has improved out of sight.  The same cannot be said of predicting the outcomes of footy games.

[faultydet 7,623]

Be excited, not worried.

 

This is a new Demon Team.

I feel we've cracked the code.

[Fat Tony 5,306]

1 hour ago, binman said:

I 100% agree the round 19 game is of limited value as a form reference. 

But King is just as likely to laud the genius of the Bont next week and change his tune and make it a 'genuine 50 50 game".

For what it's worth i reckon the current odds (dees $1.64 to win) are about right. 

And i reckon our 7 point line is excellent value. 

Keep posting Binman. You are providing the glass is half full view that we all need right now.

[qarocks 107]

[rpfc 28,904]

16 minutes ago, faultydet said:

Be excited, not worried.

 

This is a new Demon Team.

I feel we've cracked the code.

Same. 

Now we will only get beaten if we fail to convert and/or by individual brilliance.

And we have some brilliant individuals ourselves…

If Bont and/or Naughton and/or Smith go crazy and beat us then I can live with that coz it’s going to have to happen for them to win.

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

33 minutes ago, sue said:

Come on MR, don't knock the BoM.  Us oldies recall when they were lucky to forecast 1 day ahead - indeed their forecasts weren't much better than just predicting tomorrow = today).  Now we whinge if they get it wrong a week ahead.  Of course there will still be errors particularly in difficult regions, but forecasting has improved out of sight.  The same cannot be said of predicting the outcomes of footy games.

Someone's got a meteorologist in the family!

Dear Sue, 'twere but a joke. Best regards, Mazer.

[Mr Steve 3,820]

Bloody hell how many more sleeps is it now. 

[deelusions from afar 1,870]

2 hours ago, binman said:

I 100% agree the round 19 game is of limited value as a form reference. 

But King is just as likely to laud the genius of the Bont next week and change his tune and make it a 'genuine 50 50 game".

For what it's worth i reckon the current odds (dees $1.64 to win) are about right. 

And i reckon our 7 point line is excellent value. 

Quite happy for people to get caught up in the narrative of the dogs having momentum, that it's a 50-50 (as they beat us last time) etc

I think they are more of a danger to us if they go in as underdogs - it plays into Bevo's narrative which is clearly working for them.