CHANGES: Rd 20 vs Gold Coast

[Demons11 7,008]

20 hours ago, dee-tox said:

Out: Harmes, Spargo, Jackson, Hibberd, Brayshaw.

All were pathetic. How Harmes got back in the team is astounding. His past four games have been the worst I've seen in Melbourne colours.

In: Sparrow, Bowey, Melksham and Jones.

Spargo dropped for 1 average game 

[The heart beats true 18,123]

11 minutes ago, Brownie said:

It appears everything is fine. It's all fugazi, nothing to worry about, all good.

We really don't need to improve by the looks.

I'll just leave this here.

But Goodwin said he didn't believe it was a major issue as his side handed over first position on the ladder to the Bulldogs.

"It's really about maximising opportunity and being efficient when you need to. Clearly we had our chances tonight to kick a bigger score, there's no question about that," Goodwin said.

"I'm not worried one bit. Our belief is still really strong in the way we play. They kicked six goals from their forward-50 stoppages, and normally in a game it's one-to-two, so that's a big differential and it's an anomaly.

"We sit here confident. Would we like to score more? Of course we would. But it wasn't a major issue. We had our chances tonight."  

Melbourne has won just two of its past six games as it prepares to return to the finals for the first time since 2018, but Goodwin was pleased with his side's performance against the Bulldogs and said the Dees weren't far from their best.

"I think we're pretty close. As a footy club we're not far away. There was a lot to like tonight. We didn't get the result and I'm sure our supporters would be disappointed but there was enough in the game to indicate we're still well on track," he said.

"We're certainly not going to jump at shadows."

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To people really believe that he’s not concerned about our efficiency? All he’s trying to do is absorb the pressure on behalf of the players, so it doesn’t become an even greater psychological issue.

[Kent 2,909]

6 hours ago, D4Life said:

I left out same three and brought in VDB rather than Weideman.

Week after I’d give Rivers a rest week and possibly Salem or Langdon, both seemed a little flat, but hopefully no need as they might bounce back next week!

Assuming we have been doing the loading, let’s hope we’re nearly finished it and come up ready to roll in the finals. We need to start finding some real form quickly as finals are just over a month away.

Re Spargo and Pickett that pocket/half forward role they play just lends itself to some quiet games, look at stats across the league and you will see the variance across 3-4 weeks.

Our best is up there with any team, but that’s what we have to bring. We’ve had a great run with injuries, so no excuse not to have a good final series.

Does anybody actullay know we are loading or is it BS and assumptions like a lot on here

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

4 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

IMHO one of our big problems is that Salem is not providing anything like the drive that he did a month or so ago. We all know he is carrying an injury - shouldn’t he be given a week or so off to try and get it right? Everyone agrees that our big problem is the movement into attack, and that was where Salem was making all the difference when he was fit and firing.

I would rest him, maybe try Bowey  as a replacement. I agree with Weid for LJ, who has dropped right away. 

Might be something in this.

Prior to being managed for general soreness (was it?) in Rnd 11, my view is he was taking the game on more with his passes by foot Ollie.  I could be imagining this but since then he appears to be just laying off to anyone free within 15 / 20 odd meters much more often than prior to being managed.  Not taking the more risky 45 kicks or switches as often that require a more forcefull kick of at least 25/30 meters plus.

Pure speculation though as i have no data with his kicks to back this up.  However meters gained might be one loose indicator and he is down here over 40% per match on average after returning! (see below).  Also his turnover numbers are down.  Might suggest he is not turning over as much due to not pulling the trigger as often?  His intercept numbers are also way off the first nine rounds!  Not working as hard as first nine rounds or something NQR?  Time on ground (TOG) also supports this theory playing 13% less TOG.....suggesting he is either NQR or being managed (see below).

Below is a sample of some (publicly available) aspects of his statistical form with the figures showing the difference between his first nine rounds (1 to 9) and his last 9 rounds (11 to 19) averages...

Contested possessions:  7.1 / 3.8  -46.8%

Uncontested possessions:  17.4  / 15.8  -9.5%

Effective Disposals:  20.8 / 16.8  -19.2%

Disposal Efficiency:  Was 75.6 (AFL ave approx 73%) vs 70.9%

Marks i50:  Zero prior and just the 1 after but not expecting much here given he is a defender*

1% ers:  Unchanged @ 1.22

Contested Marks:   0.3 / 0.0*

Clearances:  0.9 / 0.8  -12.5% (obviously not a strong suit given role so not taking too much out of this)

Rebound 50s:  5.6 / 5.1  -8.0%

Inside 50s:  2.8 / 1.0  -64%

Tackles:  2.4 / 1.7  -31.8%

Score Involvements:  4.7 / 2.9  -38.1%

Meters Gained:  498.2 / 297.0  -40.4%

Turnovers:  4.8 / 3.4  -27.9%

Intercepts:  7.7 / 4.2  -44.9%

Time on Ground:  88.0% / 75.6%

Taking a weighted average score from some of the above, his last nine rounds were statistically 24.7% worse than his first nine indicating he appears to be way off his earlier season form.  Could also (partly?) be the opp putting more time into him (and/or better defensive forwards?) vs earlier this season.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Rusty Nails

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

Assuming this will be the stock standard Saturday 4:35pm Metricon game?

In - Melksham, Weid

Out - Harmes, Jackson

[Demon17 5,188]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Assuming this will be the stock standard Saturday 4:35pm Metricon game?

In - Melksham, Weid

Out - Harmes, Jackson

3.20pm on the AFL website

[titan_uranus 25,014]

2 hours ago, Brownie said:

It appears everything is fine. It's all fugazi, nothing to worry about, all good.

We really don't need to improve by the looks.

I'll just leave this here.

But Goodwin said he didn't believe it was a major issue as his side handed over first position on the ladder to the Bulldogs.

"It's really about maximising opportunity and being efficient when you need to. Clearly we had our chances tonight to kick a bigger score, there's no question about that," Goodwin said.

"I'm not worried one bit. Our belief is still really strong in the way we play. They kicked six goals from their forward-50 stoppages, and normally in a game it's one-to-two, so that's a big differential and it's an anomaly.

"We sit here confident. Would we like to score more? Of course we would. But it wasn't a major issue. We had our chances tonight."  

Melbourne has won just two of its past six games as it prepares to return to the finals for the first time since 2018, but Goodwin was pleased with his side's performance against the Bulldogs and said the Dees weren't far from their best.

"I think we're pretty close. As a footy club we're not far away. There was a lot to like tonight. We didn't get the result and I'm sure our supporters would be disappointed but there was enough in the game to indicate we're still well on track," he said.

"We're certainly not going to jump at shadows."

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What's he actually saying here?

1. "It's really about maximising opportunity and being efficient when you need to. Clearly we had our chances tonight to kick a bigger score, there's no question about that" - we didn't maximise opportunity and weren't efficient inside 50, such that we could have kicked a bigger score. Everyone agrees with that, don't they?
2. "Would we like to score more? Of course we would. But it wasn't a major issue. We had our chances tonight" See above
3. "We sit here confident" - this may be true, and if it is, is that a problem? I'd rather us be confident than to have lost all our confidence. And being confident doesn't mean we don't appreciate we need to improve
4. "They kicked six goals from their forward-50 stoppages, and normally in a game it's one-to-two, so that's a big differential and it's an anomaly" - we lost by 20 points where our opponent kicked 6 goals from forward 50 stoppages, against an average of 1-2. So in a 4-goal game we conceded 4 more goals from that source than normal.

So in other words, he's squarely addressed our problems whilst maintaining confidence in the players and our system. Which, when we're 3rd on the ladder, half a game off the top, with four games to go, isn't anything other than reasonable.

[dazzledavey36 54,866]

24 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

3.20pm on the AFL website

I don't think this has actually been confirmed?

[Roost it far 8,259]

Out: Jackson, Jordan

In: Weideman, Melksham 

whilst these changes don’t exactly excite me I think some fresh legs may help. The next 4 weeks are crucial. 
those continually calling for Daw or Bowey or Bedford or Vandenberg simply don’t understand where we’re at. 
Brayshaw, Viney, ANB won’t get dropped because they’re a step above anyone who can replace them

Jones is a chance as is Sparrow

Edited July 25, 2021 by Roost it far

[monoccular 17,426]

5 hours ago, picket fence said:

But Spargo was not that good last night and in my opinion Bowey has more going for him

Time to blood him

picket - just asking, have you actually seen Bowey in a match?  I haven’t, and wonder how you are so confident about him. 

5 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

IMHO one of our big problems is that Salem is not providing anything like the drive that he did a month or so ago. We all know he is carrying an injury - shouldn’t he be given a week or so off to try and get it right? Everyone agrees that our big problem is the movement into attack, and that was where Salem was making all the difference when he was fit and firing.

I would rest him, maybe try Bowey  as a replacement. I agree with Weid for LJ, who has dropped right away. 

Salem is just so important - IMVHO his absence v Adelaide threw the defence totally out of sync and he hasn’t really been the same with any consistency since.  
If “resting” him this week could help him back to his best then sure maybe blood Bowey.  
Salem is one of our most important players for his disposal and calmness but also his organisation and leadership of the defence.  

[picket fence 17,146]

Mono I have seen him at both training and at Casey.. he is ready..? PF

[Paulo 285]

In bowey

Out anb

[Kent 2,909]

Jones and Sparrow for Viney and Harmes

[Demon17 5,188]

11 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I don't think this has actually been confirmed?

Correct. They took down that initial time and its now TBC

[GCDee 3,199]

JJ looks like he is slowing down, LJ might need a rest for a few weeks. Harmes has been pretty bad. 

Viney looks like he is getting some touch back, no way does he go out. 

The game becomes more contested with less space in finals and the end or the year, I'd like to get more experience in the team finding form before finals.

I think a fresh Melksham and Jones could be exactly what our team needs. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

11 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

I don't think this has actually been confirmed?

It's not at all confirmed.

It may well be 3:20pm as the poster has suggested, but certainly not confirmed.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

11 minutes ago, GCDee said:

JJ looks like he is slowing down, LJ might need a rest for a few weeks. Harmes has been pretty bad. 

Viney looks like he is getting some touch back, no way does he go out. 

The game becomes more contested with less space in finals and the end or the year, I'd like to get more experience in the team finding form before finals.

I think a fresh Melksham and Jones could be exactly what our team needs. 

Agree with all that.

I like your ins in Melksham and Jones. Bring in some veterans to help us get to the rd 23 finish line.

LJ and JJ to be rested completely from footy. Jackson has had 3 kicks in 2 weeks and one of them went straight to his opponent in Tim English. Jordon looked off the boil on the weekend and was a far cry from the cool and composed player we've seen this year.

Harmes was just plain bad. 

 

[jumbo returns 6,741]

24 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Agree with all that.

I like your ins in Melksham and Jones. Bring in some veterans to help us get to the rd 23 finish line.

LJ and JJ to be rested completely from footy. Jackson has had 3 kicks in 2 weeks and one of them went straight to his opponent in Tim English. Jordon looked off the boil on the weekend and was a far cry from the cool and composed player we've seen this year.

Harmes was just plain bad. 

 

This is becoming a real issue....

[drdrake 3,163]

 

11 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

This is becoming a real issue....

Becoming or has been for 2 years.  Our midfield struggles to hit a target but have other strengths, this guy can't get the footy, when he does he can't hit a target.  We need something different in our midfield group, you can't just have inside mids that can't hit targets.  Harmes to me looks at his best as that defensive half forward, he should have been sent to Daniel on the weekend.

We need to bring in Melksham, offers the same but a much smarter football with good skills.  We need to bring in some more forward pressure Bedford or Chandler for Jackson and then Rivers or Hibberd goes out for Bowey

My Team

Bowey May Petty

Hunt Lever Salem

Langdon Brayshaw Jordon

Melksham TMac Spargo

Fritsch Brown Pickett

Gawn Oliver Petracca

Viney, Hibberd, ANB, Bedford

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,817]

I think we need to cop 1 or 2 of Melksham's half hearted defensive efforts in exchange for the offensive rewards he can provide going the other way.

Yes, if he fails to impact then he's gone for good, but we need to mix things up a bit.

The Dogs are the best side in the league and they make 4 changes a week.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Bring-Back-Powell

[jumbo returns 6,741]

4 minutes ago, drdrake said:

 

Becoming or has been for 2 years.  Our midfield struggles to hit a target but have other strengths, this guy can't get the footy, when he does he can't hit a target.  We need something different in our midfield group, you can't just have inside mids that can't hit targets.  Harmes to me looks at his best as that defensive half forward, he should have been sent to Daniel on the weekend.

We need to bring in Melksham, offers the same but a much smarter football with good skills.  We need to bring in some more forward pressure Bedford or Chandler for Jackson and then Rivers or Hibberd goes out for Bowey

My Team

Bowey May Petty

Hunt Lever Salem

Langdon Brayshaw Jordon

Melksham TMac Spargo

Fritsch Brown Pickett

Gawn Oliver Petracca

Viney, Hibberd, ANB, Bedford

 

This ^

Isn't that coaching issue though? Footballers are all point and click - this move should have come from those wearing headphones

I haven't seen much of Bowey, so reserve my thoughts on that one

Melksham will be picked and I'm not averse to Weed coming in for Jackson - but! I think that Bedford would be an inspiring selection!

 

[Little Richard 6,262]

On 7/24/2021 at 10:05 PM, monoccular said:

Deck chairs ….. Titanic 

Our season is sunken. 
 

Start planning for 2022 - give Bowey a go for one.  

Come on mate, season sunk? We're second on the ladder and I've seen nothing to convince me that any side is much better than us (except for when you factor in score conversion, which we can easily turn around). We are still a huge chance this year, don't let past experience get the better of you.

We could use some fresh legs so I'd certainly be keen to bring in Bowey, perhaps Chandler or Bedford and Melksham should probably be in the mix too. Some of the lads may need a breather before the finals, i.e. Kozzy, Jackson, Jordon.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Luther

[jumbo returns 6,741]

3 minutes ago, Luther said:

Come on mate, season sunk? We're second on the ladder and I've seen nothing to convince me that any side is much better than us (except for when you factor in score conversion, which we can easily turn around). We are still a huge chance this year, don't let past experience get the better of you.

We could use some fresh legs so I'd certainly be keen to bring in Bowey, perhaps Chandler or Bedford and Melksham should probably be in the mix too. Some of the lads may need a breather before the finals, i.e. Kozzy, Jackson, Jordon.

Third

But, I like your post

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

I'd rest Jackson, bringing in Weid, which then also means Weid is the 2nd ruck, something that has really helped his game at Casey. I've always thought he's one of the players that needs a hard contest early to get going and going into the ruck will help that.

Jordon also should be rested, early season his tackling was elite, but that has really dropped off which is a sign that his tiring and probably being forced onto the wing a bit too much.

I'd drop Hibbo, he's been very fumbley and I think we've got the defensive mix wrong at the moment, we need a smaller ground ball operator, other teams have worked out that kicking it high and long suits our defenders so hitting grass and getting chaos is working, so that's why I think we've sent Brayshaw back more lately, but he's not the answer - and having Salem doing that job has curbed some of his run/creativity. We need a really defensive small so I'd go Bowey or Lockhart. 

So out: LJ, JJ and Hibbo

In: Weid, Bowey and either AVB or Melk (both play high half forwward, Melk has better delivery but can go missing, while AVB might offer an additional hard edge). 

[drdrake 3,163]

4 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I think we need to cop 1 or 2 of Melksham's half hearted defensive efforts in exchange for the offensive rewards he can provide going the other way.

Yes, if he fails to impact then he's gone for good, but we need to mix things up a bit.

The Dogs are the best side in the league and they make 4 changes a week.

The concern is we already have Fritsch that we cop his lack of defensive pressure, that is why I think it is important to bring in Melksham with Bedford or Chandler to add some defensive pressure up forward.