With 6 rounds to go in the Home and Away with us at the pointy end of the ladder I thought it might be a good idea to start a thread that looks at the impact of the results per round and speculate on the next round.

At this stage we could end up anywhere between 1st and 5th.

Saints and Swans did us favours this week end against the Lions and Dogs, at the end of this last round we could have sat anywhere between 1st and 5th and the result fell our way. The Pies might roll Richmond. 9 points ahead with a few to play at this time.

We sit top after 17 rounds a game clear of both Dogs and Cats both of whom we play on the run home. these will be critical games.

Next round the critical games in my view are, obviously, our game against the Hawks, one that we should win going away.

Dockers Vs Cats in Perth?  Dockers may surprise on their home turf. we can only hope.

Tigers Vs Lions. Critical for both teams. Tigers to try and climb into the 8 and for the Lions to keep up top 4 aspirations.

Suns Vs Dogs. pressure on the Dogs after the loss they just had. Go Suns!

Saints Vs Port. Saints a big chance in this one and they need it to try and challenge for the 8.

Best results next week see us 1st 2 games clear of the pack and the worst result would find us 3rd on percentage behind the Dogs and Cats ad a game clear of Lions and Power in 4th and 5th.

It is going to be an interesting ride.

 

Geelong have a pretty good run except from Freo in Freo, and us last round (they play middle tables teams like Saints, GWS and Richmond). I'd actually like to play them in the finals as I think they will be very beatable with our fitness.

We've got a touch run with dogs, WCE and Geelong. Win 2 and we should finish on top I think, but results could really change it, it's tight at the top.

7 minutes ago, deanox said:

Geelong have a pretty good run except from Freo in Freo, and us last round (they play middle tables teams like Saints, GWS and Richmond). I'd actually like to play them in the finals as I think they will be very beatable with our fitness.

We've got a touch run with dogs, WCE and Geelong. Win 2 and we should finish on top I think, but results could really change it, it's tight at the top.

The Geelong matches you mention could be a lot tougher than you imagine if those teams are pushing for the 8.

6 minutes ago, CHF said:

The Geelong matches you mention could be a lot tougher than you imagine if those teams are pushing for the 8.

Yeah fair call. I think there is a big gap between those clubs and the top 4, but under pressure some will come good.

 

I do prefer our fixture of lower tables and top ranked teams. Although I wish one of Geelong or WCE was at the G.

Edited July 11, 20213 yr by deanox

If all the teams in the eight play at their very very best Melbourne win. Simple if we can play at our best we win the flag.

24 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

If all the teams in the eight play at their very very best Melbourne win. Simple if we can play at our best we win the flag.

This.

Great summary thanks CHF. As Mr. Steve has stated above, we might have a tough home run, but outside of Jeelong-in the tooth, I'd feel pretty confident our best takes care of all comers.  

Edited July 11, 20213 yr by Queanbeyan Demon
Typo

It does seem there are a few teams from 6-12 that are hitting decent form, could be a few upsets in the run home. 

I expect the ladder to finish 

1.Melbourne 

2. Geelong 

3. Western Bulldogs 

4. Brisbane 

5. Port Adelaide 

6. Sydney 

7. West Coast 

8. Richmond/Essendon/St Kilda 

There is a possibility we could play the Cats two weeks in a row. 

1 hour ago, CHF said:

There is a possibility we could play the Cats two weeks in a row. 

Unfortunately.

18 minutes ago, dl4e said:

Unfortunately.

Why? I think we can beat them at the MCG. We have a strong recent record against them and I bet of all the teams they would want to play us the least as we have the backline to nullify their biggest strength, which is their forwardline. 
The only bad game for us in finals will be if we end up on a road trip to the Gabba. Otherwise I back us against any other side at the G. Remembering too that of the top 6 sides currently, we are the only team who plays regularly and has a game plan specific to the MCG. 

Edited July 11, 20213 yr by Jaded

1 hour ago, CHF said:

There is a possibility we could play the Cats two weeks in a row. 

Impossible! There's a week off before the finals :-)

I really think we can beat Geelong at Geelong....and we will play them again in finals.

They only kicked 2 goals in a whole game a few weeks ago....not sure what all that was about.....finals loading perhaps?

2 hours ago, CHF said:

There is a possibility we could play the Cats two weeks in a row. 

Like Hawthorn in 1990? Then they were the reigning two-time premiers. We won both matches. 

We are back on top - YEAH BABY!!

Based on our form to date, you would be justified in being more concerned about Hawthorn, GC and Adelaide than about the Dogs, West Coast and Geelong.

Id be more worried if I was a dogs or cats to be honest both are round 50/50 vs other top 8 sides and already lost to us this year.

Top position and a flag are both ours to loose, we have a healthy list and have not lost to any other contender, every other team would kill to be us right now. If we fail to do either we don’t have anyone else to blame but ourselves which is the most scary thing.

Well I've got us dropping 3 games which according to my calculations puts us in 4th-5th spot and being tied with port on points so would need to beat them on % to get in.  Time to get ruthless in the next 2 weeks. None of this 2-4 goal win crap. Blow them out of the  water!

The Hawks and Crows are in rotten form. can't see us dropping games against them in fact i expect some percentage boosts.

The Suns in Darwin is the danger game for mine. They are in decent touch. We can;t take them lightly

We'll beat the Dogs at the G and i reckon we'll split WC and Geelong games.

That's 4 wins and a 17-5 record. that's enough for a Top 2 finish

8 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I really think we can beat Geelong at Geelong....and we will play them again in finals.

They only kicked 2 goals in a whole game a few weeks ago....not sure what all that was about.....finals loading perhaps?

Cameron currently has a dicky hamstring. He was subbed off early in their match last weekend as a 'safety', 'conservative' measure. If he plays again in the next few weeks, he is going to face a real threat to being on the field for the remainder of the season, including finals. If so, his loss to the Geelong team will cost them during the finals. If he makes the teamsheets across the next few weeks, he is not going to be capable of going at 100% lest he be subbed off with a more severe injury than its status at the current moment. Looking forward to playing them again, minus Cameron. 

50 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

The Hawks and Crows are in rotten form. can't see us dropping games against them in fact i expect some percentage boosts.

The Suns in Darwin is the danger game for mine. They are in decent touch. We can;t take them lightly

We'll beat the Dogs at the G and i reckon we'll split WC and Geelong games.

That's 4 wins and a 17-5 record. that's enough for a Top 2 finish

We just have to hit the Hawks hard - very hard - so bring in AVB to sort a few nasties in their team. AVB was allegedly BOG for Casey last weekend, playing a very commendable, experienced, fast, linkaged game. Time for a newbie, too - in the backline (Bowie?) to release Hunt for some attacking, sprinting practices upfield against the Hawks. 

1 hour ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Cameron currently has a dicky hamstring. He was subbed off early in their match last weekend as a 'safety', 'conservative' measure. If he plays again in the next few weeks, he is going to face a real threat to being on the field for the remainder of the season, including finals. If so, his loss to the Geelong team will cost them during the finals. If he makes the teamsheets across the next few weeks, he is not going to be capable of going at 100% lest he be subbed off with a more severe injury than its status at the current moment. Looking forward to playing them again, minus Cameron. 

I agree. I don’t think they’ll actually play Cameron before finals, unless they start dropping games and a top 4 finish is in danger. If he does his hammy again and misses finals they won’t win a flag. They know it. 

We just have to keep winning @Beetle It's just that simple..

14 hours ago, deanox said:

We've got a touch run with dogs, WCE and Geelong. Win 2 and we should finish on top I think, but results could really change it, it's tight at the top.

At least its in our hands. They are very tough games on their home turf.

We win those and we cement top spot I reckon.

Hopefully Bb and Jack Viney are performing at their best soon.

Would love to see us just bury a team by ten goals. Hawks game is our best chance.

Looking at the Cats run home, I have a feeling they will be number one.

Maybe us if we beat them at their home ground.

The Lions have a pretty easy run home too.

We have the toughest with eagles and cats away as well as the dogs

I dont feel confident of securing top two but if we beat Cats and Dogs again  I do .

It would also give us all the confidence in the world come finals.

As frustrating as losing to gws was, that Port win was outstanding and hopefully kept us in the final four.

A draw from the first crows game would have been handy.

Rotten maggots.

Edited July 11, 20213 yr by leave it to deever