My Round 17 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,738]

12-3

15 rounds played…..12 wins….. 48 points in the premiership bank and dropped to second on the ladder after a not-so-forgettable loss to the Great Waste of space.

Defence under pressure…. Midfield looking flat and devoid of ideas and imagination …… forward structure non-existent….. or at least still dysfunctional after 15 games this season. Goody thinks that is a good thing.

It is not as if we were playing world beaters in GWS. They are a good competent side that has a number of quality players but it is not a team that we should have lost too. Rubbish first half and a better second half with no one able to take the chances on offer. Midfield could not deliver with confidence to a forward structure that would not allow them to identify proper targets.

Very disappointing and worrying performance.

And so, to Round 17 and we play the Port Power this Thursday night at Adelaide Oval. 2^nd vs 3^rd and there is every chance that if we lose this one, we could find ourselves in 5^th place come Monday morning…… And who would be surprised when the much lauded coaching panel still have no idea of the best forward setup? So much for adding Yze and Choco. They looked good when we were winning but are scratching their heads at the moment.

The facts:

We are coming off a grinding loss – Advantage them

The game is at Adelaide Oval – Advantage them

We have been rubbish the last few weeks – Advantage them

They are coming off a win last week against the Hawks – Advantage them

Not looking good, is it?

Problem areas of the game for us. Still the bloody forwards…. And now you can add the midfield that looks flat and disinterested.

Defenders did their job with very little support from other sectors of the ground. Goodwin swung Hunt forward in the last to remind us why he was moved back. Running out of defence the way he does is good when there are players forward of him, so he does not have to make too many decisions. Stick him in the front half and he runs out of players to pass forward to and he has forgotten that there are four sticks at the end of the ground you can have a ping at. Go back to the structure that works for the defenders and sort out the rest of the players.

A bit of midfield pressure goes a long way toward winning a game of footy as can be seen by the difference between our play in the first half as opposed to the second where we remembered to apply pressure. Made a world of difference. We are rubbish at sorting out onfield problems during the game. Our clearances in the first half were less than acceptable and yet I did not see anyone changing things onfield to sort it out. If something is not working…. Fix it then and there. Try something different. Jackson to ruck with Max roving at the center bounce as a mid…Anything….. Anything at all. It has to be better than doing SFA.

Max and Luke will win the taps at the ruck contest but so what?

Oh dear……. Now for the forwards……. I hate to keep picking on them every week but a score of 7-13 from 56 inside 50s with 10 marks in the 50 arc leave them open, once again, to bear the brunt of criticism.

The good; Fritsch kicked a few and Tmac is in good form but not getting the ball near to goal

The bad; Wow. Where to start? No forward targets…. (left over from last week)

The ugly; Selection stubbornness in not giving BBB a run.

Another week, another win without a recognisable structure to the forward line. We took 10marks inside our forward 50…. 10. We scored 7 goals 13. Please, please….fix this…. Brown to come in? if so, will that make it any better? Could not be any worse. (Paraphrased last week)

Shaking my head here…. No idea what could fix it but then again, I am not paid the big bucks by the MFC to come up with answers to problems, and the people that are, are not providing answers. Any thoughts on the subject Yze? Choco? Goody???? You guys have been around a lot ya gotta have some idea….. (repeat from last week)

Selection….. make some changes don’t just nibble the chesses and have a friendly chat about the weather and leave the team to wallow without a forward structure that they can play too.

I heard a few loud clunks last week and The Bathwater Express ground to a halt as the wheels had fallen off. To be honest they did not so much ‘fall off’ more like that jumped off and ran away into the bush as they did not want to be associated with TBE. Understandable. It will take a lot to get them back on the hubs.

Last week I predicted a 6 goal win….. got it wrong…. Very wrong….. I would Love to predict a win here but, after a long bull run, the bears are in ascendancy and I have to predict a loss….. not even an honourable one…. 30pts and 5^th after the round.

 

Go Dees!!! ( I still love the team but they make it so damn hard)

[1964_2 2,357]

21 minutes ago, CHF said:

12-3

15 rounds played…..12 wins….. 48 points in the premiership bank and dropped to second on the ladder after a not-so-forgettable loss to the Great Waste of space.

Defence under pressure…. Midfield looking flat and devoid of ideas and imagination …… forward structure non-existent….. or at least still dysfunctional after 15 games this season. Goody thinks that is a good thing.

It is not as if we were playing world beaters in GWS. They are a good competent side that has a number of quality players but it is not a team that we should have lost too. Rubbish first half and a better second half with no one able to take the chances on offer. Midfield could not deliver with confidence to a forward structure that would not allow them to identify proper targets.

Very disappointing and worrying performance.

And so, to Round 17 and we play the Port Power this Thursday night at Adelaide Oval. 2^nd vs 3^rd and there is every chance that if we lose this one, we could find ourselves in 5^th place come Monday morning…… And who would be surprised when the much lauded coaching panel still have no idea of the best forward setup? So much for adding Yze and Choco. They looked good when we were winning but are scratching their heads at the moment.

The facts:

We are coming off a grinding loss – Advantage them

The game is at Adelaide Oval – Advantage them

We have been rubbish the last few weeks – Advantage them

They are coming off a win last week against the Hawks – Advantage them

Not looking good, is it?

Problem areas of the game for us. Still the bloody forwards…. And now you can add the midfield that looks flat and disinterested.

Defenders did their job with very little support from other sectors of the ground. Goodwin swung Hunt forward in the last to remind us why he was moved back. Running out of defence the way he does is good when there are players forward of him, so he does not have to make too many decisions. Stick him in the front half and he runs out of players to pass forward to and he has forgotten that there are four sticks at the end of the ground you can have a ping at. Go back to the structure that works for the defenders and sort out the rest of the players.

A bit of midfield pressure goes a long way toward winning a game of footy as can be seen by the difference between our play in the first half as opposed to the second where we remembered to apply pressure. Made a world of difference. We are rubbish at sorting out onfield problems during the game. Our clearances in the first half were less than acceptable and yet I did not see anyone changing things onfield to sort it out. If something is not working…. Fix it then and there. Try something different. Jackson to ruck with Max roving at the center bounce as a mid…Anything….. Anything at all. It has to be better than doing SFA.

Max and Luke will win the taps at the ruck contest but so what?

Oh dear……. Now for the forwards……. I hate to keep picking on them every week but a score of 7-13 from 56 inside 50s with 10 marks in the 50 arc leave them open, once again, to bear the brunt of criticism.

The good; Fritsch kicked a few and Tmac is in good form but not getting the ball near to goal

The bad; Wow. Where to start? No forward targets…. (left over from last week)

The ugly; Selection stubbornness in not giving BBB a run.

Another week, another win without a recognisable structure to the forward line. We took 10marks inside our forward 50…. 10. We scored 7 goals 13. Please, please….fix this…. Brown to come in? if so, will that make it any better? Could not be any worse. (Paraphrased last week)

Shaking my head here…. No idea what could fix it but then again, I am not paid the big bucks by the MFC to come up with answers to problems, and the people that are, are not providing answers. Any thoughts on the subject Yze? Choco? Goody???? You guys have been around a lot ya gotta have some idea….. (repeat from last week)

Selection….. make some changes don’t just nibble the chesses and have a friendly chat about the weather and leave the team to wallow without a forward structure that they can play too.

I heard a few loud clunks last week and The Bathwater Express ground to a halt as the wheels had fallen off. To be honest they did not so much ‘fall off’ more like that jumped off and ran away into the bush as they did not want to be associated with TBE. Understandable. It will take a lot to get them back on the hubs.

Last week I predicted a 6 goal win….. got it wrong…. Very wrong….. I would Love to predict a win here but, after a long bull run, the bears are in ascendancy and I have to predict a loss….. not even an honourable one…. 30pts and 5^th after the round.

 

Go Dees!!! ( I still love the team but they make it so damn hard)

we have the equal least losses in the league, yet after reading this post I have to check the ladder to remind myself that we are not last.......so very strange. 

dees up by 2 goals at quarter time, and end up beating Port by 25 points. 
 

 

[CHF 2,738]

3 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

we have the equal least losses in the league, yet after reading this post I have to check the ladder to remind myself that we are not last.......so very strange. 

dees up by 2 goals at quarter time, and end up beating Port by 25 points. 
 

 

I am very pleased to be 12-3 on the ladder and lying second. A position I acknowledge in the very first lines of my preview. 

In previewing this round I have to look at our recent performances and, I my view, they have been less than acceptable performances from both the players and the coaching staff.

So, from my point of view, not so very strange.

 

[1964_2 2,357]

22 minutes ago, CHF said:

I am very pleased to be 12-3 on the ladder and lying second. A position I acknowledge in the very first lines of my preview. 

In previewing this round I have to look at our recent performances and, I my view, they have been less than acceptable performances from both the players and the coaching staff.

So, from my point of view, not so very strange.

 

Port have not beaten a top 8 side other than Sydney by 10 points.

Melb have not lost to a top 8 side (GWS outside of 8 at start of last round) 

 

 

[Min Xie 284]

Bring as many fresh legs in as we can, let some players have a rest, swap position between Macdonald and May, make it a strange and ugly game, we might have a chance. 

[bobby1554 1,244]

$6.50 for Port by 40 plus, make yourselves some bucks, at least it will deaden the pain.

[Rednblueriseing 824]

Line in the sand game, we will belt them off the park in front of their home fans sending a message to the rest of the competition on a big stage. dees by 43

[Superunknown 4,217]

9 hours ago, 1964_2 said:

Port have not beaten a top 8 side other than Sydney by 10 points.

Melb have not lost to a top 8 side (GWS outside of 8 at start of last round) 

 

 

Past performance does not predict future returns.

[Superunknown 4,217]

3 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

$6.50 for Port by 40 plus, make yourselves some bucks, at least it will deaden the pain.

Jeepers - it's 1.90 with a 2.5 line. The markets think it'll be close.

[loges 6,767]

3 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

$6.50 for Port by 40 plus, make yourselves some bucks, at least it will deaden the pain.

Not sure we'll win but I think you're underselling our backline there a bit.

[BDA 22,755]

Our defense is rock solid and will provide the platform. We'll need to kick 12 goals to win. That's a tall order based on our output over the past 3 games. 

I don't know how to call this one. Defence will keep us in it but unless we sort out our woes in the forward line i don't believe we will win. 

 

[Antioch 232]

Port by 40 points plus.

[RedFox 529]

Tmac has only kicked one goal the past 3 weeks. He had been a reliable source of goals for the season up until Queens Birthday. How do we get him dangerous again? I love what he's bringing in terms of linking the defence to the forward line but if he's getting the ball up on the wing we're automatically a scoring option short when we go inside 50. 

[DeeZone 9,854]

In a tight hard fought pressure game I am predicting Dees by 17 points, 2.5 to be precise all of which were get able but need to start in the first Qtr. Come on Dees find your mojo.

 

 

 

[cookieboc 776]

the difference between our best footy and worst is still too big. This is why we are not a top 4 team yet

I'm going to go out on a limb and take a new approach and say that the "new" Melbourne wins this one. 

 

[Smokey 4,389]

1 minute ago, cookieboc said:

the difference between our best footy and worst is still too big. This is why we are not a top 4 team yet

I'm going to go out on a limb and take a new approach and say that the "new" Melbourne wins this one. 

 

Agree our best and worst is still too far apart, but we've been sitting on top of the ladder for almost half the season and still sit second. We are literally a top 2 team right now. Speculate all you want about how the season will end but lets just deal with the reality as it is right now. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,591]

a drop from 1 to 5 within six days... Wonder if that's a record

Only way we win this is if Port kick 6:15

[Guest]

5 hours ago, bobby1554 said:

$6.50 for Port by 40 plus, make yourselves some bucks, at least it will deaden the pain.

I back against us every single game for this very reason. Been doing it for years. No amount of money can deaden the pain, but it sure takes the edge off it some. 

[Superunknown 4,217]

A mix of dread and quiet confidence.

Feels like the Bulldogs game a bit.

[Smokey 4,389]

21 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

I back against us every single game for this very reason. Been doing it for years. No amount of money can deaden the pain, but it sure takes the edge off it some. 

You'd be well out of pocket so far this year 

[cookieboc 776]

1 hour ago, Smokey said:

Agree our best and worst is still too far apart, but we've been sitting on top of the ladder for almost half the season and still sit second. We are literally a top 2 team right now. Speculate all you want about how the season will end but lets just deal with the reality as it is right now. 

the reality right now is that we were first last week and fell to second after a [censored] game against a team outside the eight, with an interstate game against a team that wants our spot in the top four.

how that goes is anyones guess but, on past MFCSS we lose this week and fall to fifth.

I'm choosing to ignore MFCSS and say that we win this one because this team is going to create its own path, as it has for the majority of 2021. 

[D4Life 2,475]

I’m going we lose to Port , because I picked against us vs Dogs & Lions. conversely thought we would beat Crows and Pies easily, and defeat Giants by 20-30! So am hoping can get it wrong again.

Am really keen to see BBB given 5 matches! A few people have crapped on Hunt but really nothing to kick to all day up forward, other than a few Fritsch cameos!Have BBb stay in the50 arc provide an option, other than if he has to man up his opponent!

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,845]

As much as I don't want to lose, is there any chance we can lose, but lose with some credibility. E.g. In the contest all night and go down by 6-12 points to a top 4 side in hostile territory. 

It would be a refreshing change to read in the post match thread that we had a red hot crack but were beaten by the better team on the night in front of their home crowd. Contrast that to the usual end of the world posts that we've read after our 3 losses so far.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Smokey said:

You'd be well out of pocket so far this year 

I definitely am! And loving it. The amount I outlay each week varies depending on how much I dislike the oppos. When we beat Essendon I lost $100 and was beside myself with joy. ❤️?

[John Crow Batty 8,869]

I’m not as worried about our form or the Port big guns as much as I am about the umpires. They are the real threat.  Our recent results over there confirm this.