COVID & AFL 2021

[DeeSpencer 26,069]

Ethically tricky but should we gather our 40+ fully vaccinated players and give them all covid so they are super immune and less likely to test positive in season?

Losing multiple players a week to positive tests seem entirely possible. 

Not sure what the AFL’s policy on surveillance testing and contacts will be but I assume it will be aggressive due to the travel required. 

[adonski 12,410]

5 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Ethically tricky but should we gather our 40+ fully vaccinated players and give them all covid so they are super immune and less likely to test positive in season?

Losing multiple players a week to positive tests seem entirely possible. 

Not sure what the AFL’s policy on surveillance testing and contacts will be but I assume it will be aggressive due to the travel required. 

Yep, like a chicken pox party

I'll hire the DJ

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,906]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

And I reckon we could reach 96% or 97% vaccinated if we brought in some positive incentives for the unvaccinated.  The disincentives would however be having an effect.  Reality sinks in eventually

With some, you'll never change their minds.  The pandemic will never be over for those types as covid isn't going to die off

As a matter of interest, do you think requiring people to be double vaccinated to be able to particiapte in everyday events such as going to the football is a positive incentive or a threat? I see it as the former.  

[Macca 17,032]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Production is the issue here as usual Macca. Needs to be given early and will likely be rationed to those with very high risk.

2022 is increasingly looking like a year which the world will stumble through.

The 2nd paragragh I agree with ... so many unknowns abound.  Here in Australia though (sport aside) we'll have a much easier time of it

For instance, if we had pro-rata cases similar to the UK (over 44,000 covid cases today) we'd be pushing 20,000 cases per day (140,000 in a week)

Then our hospitals would be at breaking point ... but we're heading towards 95% double vaxxed so in my view, we won't hit those sorts of numbers at all

With regards to Molnupiravir,  yes there will be issues of availability but it's still a huge game-changer.  How many do we have at high risk in ICU?  We should be able to look after the extreme cases (if we keep the covid numbers down)

Google up Fareed Zakaria for his views on the new antiviral medication

Edited November 21, 2021 by Macca

[Macca 17,032]

35 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

As a matter of interest, do you think requiring people to be double vaccinated to be able to particiapte in everyday events such as going to the football is a positive incentive or a threat? I see it as the former.  

Not vaccinated, no entry.  Not a threat, common sense. Greater good and all that.  We are still in the mode of curtailing the spread of covid (for good reason)

I'm not really into handouts but maybe some sort of taxation break to push things closer ...  dangle some sort of carrot

You got any ideas apart from a cash incentive?... didn't Albanese have an idea to offer $350 per person to hurry things along?

My preference is 100% double vaxxed and I've noticed we've achieved that percentage for first dose in the nations capital. Seems a stretch but surely we can get to 97% if 95% is achievable

While I've got you LDvC ... if we assume that covid positive footy players have to sit it out,  do we do the same with close contact players to that covid positive player? (or players)  Coaches as well?  What if that scenario happens on the morning of a match?

If we have hard and fast rules then the teams are going to have players in and out of the side (remembering that double vaxxed players can still contract covid)

Edited November 21, 2021 by Macca

[faultydet 7,619]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

Ethically tricky but should we gather our 40+ fully vaccinated players and give them all covid so they are super immune and less likely to test positive in season?

Losing multiple players a week to positive tests seem entirely possible. 

Not sure what the AFL’s policy on surveillance testing and contacts will be but I assume it will be aggressive due to the travel required. 

Everyone will eventually come into contact with Covid19. 

While it would be mental to deliberately infect people with a deadly virus, I agree that it would be "better" if the entire AFL community had a dose of it now, rather than lists being decimated mid season. And with the lockdowns finished (for now), it will very likely occur during the 2022 season.

[John Crow Batty 8,878]

Due to the restrictions in WA we have been having a great time here. I haven’t seen anyone wearing a mask in over a month. Venues are packed. It’s damn hard to get a restaurant table on weekends. Haven’t seen shopping centres so busy for years. All the local holiday destinations are heavily booked with prices to match. Many spring festivals at this time of year and I will be going to one today sans mask. Sadly though WA has more than its fair share of anti vax idiots and there was a big demonstration(10,000+) yesterday in the city. The premier won’t open up until there are at least 90-95% fully vaxed and the state is way behind on the Eastern States. Those die hard anti vax idiots better hurry up and get with the program if they want things to change and get their so called freedom. Theres plenty of vaccines around. 

Edited November 21, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[Lord Nev 13,512]

3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Ethically tricky but should we gather our 40+ fully vaccinated players and give them all covid so they are super immune and less likely to test positive in season?

Losing multiple players a week to positive tests seem entirely possible. 

Not sure what the AFL’s policy on surveillance testing and contacts will be but I assume it will be aggressive due to the travel required. 

 

2 hours ago, faultydet said:

Everyone will eventually come into contact with Covid19. 

While it would be mental to deliberately infect people with a deadly virus, I agree that it would be "better" if the entire AFL community had a dose of it now, rather than lists being decimated mid season. And with the lockdowns finished (for now), it will very likely occur during the 2022 season.

I'm not sure if DS's post is a joke or not tbh knowing this thread.... but...

Catching COVID once does not make you "super immune". Being vaccinated greatly reduces the chances, but the reputable evidence at this early stage says yes, you can absolutely contract COVID more than once. The reports of it are rare, but it does happen.

I would also suggest that 'long COVID' is not a fantastic thing to potentially carry into a season, especially one where you've missed half the preseason while infectious.

My apologies if your post was in jest, but far out... seriously?

[bing181 9,328]

3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Ethically tricky but should we gather our 40+ fully vaccinated players and give them all covid so they are super immune and less likely to test positive in season?

Not sure if you're aware, but we have these things called vaccines, which in comparison to natural immunity after Covid infections offer (much) better protection over a longer period and more consistent delivery.

[bing181 9,328]

2 hours ago, faultydet said:

it would be "better" if the entire AFL community had a dose of it now,

COVID-19 vaccine gives 5 times the protection of 'natural immunity,' data show

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-protection-natural-immunity-data-show

[bing181 9,328]

5 hours ago, faultydet said:

thank God we don't require those face diapers up here in Queensland where I am.

Mask wearing cuts infections by 53 per cent

(Link to the original study (BMJ) included in the article)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-mask-wearing-cuts-infections-by-53-per-cent/#ixzz7CpklpyN9

[dieter 3,325]

4 hours ago, Macca said:

You worry too much dieter

Deal with what you need to deal with and stop concerning yourself with doomsday thinking

 

 

Good advice; thanks. Because of my background and a keen interest in 'real history, I am inclined, unfortunately, to err on the side of reality. Others call that pessimism...

That genetic predisposition is often manifest in the first born who have parents who were war-ravaged, or who suffered from persecution. My mother, for example, survived two and a half years in a Labor Camp in the Ukraine. She and the other inmates worked a bauxite mine in alternating twelve hour shifts, seven days a week with one day off a month. Most of her fellow inmates - ethnic German women aged under forty from Northern Yugoslavia died from malnutrition and typhoid and suchlike. She weighed 45 kilos when she was released in April 1947. 

I guess it's one of the reasons I have so little sympathy for those privileged mental midgets  who protest  about losing what they call 'freedom'.

[58er 6,538]

14 minutes ago, dieter said:

Good advice; thanks. Because of my background and a keen interest in 'real history, I am inclined, unfortunately, to err on the side of reality. Others call that pessimism...

That genetic predisposition is often manifest in the first born who have parents who were war-ravaged, or who suffered from persecution. My mother, for example, survived two and a half years in a Labor Camp in the Ukraine. She and the other inmates worked a bauxite mine in alternating twelve hour shifts, seven days a week with one day off a month. Most of her fellow inmates - ethnic German women aged under forty from Northern Yugoslavia died from malnutrition and typhoid and suchlike. She weighed 45 kilos when she was released in April 1947. 

I guess it's one of the reasons I have so little sympathy for those privileged mental midgets  who protest  about losing what they call 'freedom'.

You should be celebrating the life you can live in Oz not harbouring regrets and resentment for all your life. Life is still about choices but they are limited at times and we can't change some that are out of our control generally. 

One of life's challenges is to compartmentalise our life. Live in the moment and smell the roses.

If when we hear of some bad or sad news react appropriately but try an not let it rule our week or diminish other good in your life. No doubt that is a challenge with family friends and a very new threat for some people called  Covid.

Sadly we have to live with it but in the future it will seem like a harsher version of the flu sometimes  no doubt. 

Good lunch and always be positive about the Dees now mOre MFCSS if you had any!! 

 

[faultydet 7,619]

39 minutes ago, bing181 said:

COVID-19 vaccine gives 5 times the protection of 'natural immunity,' data show

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-protection-natural-immunity-data-show

bing, you really do bring up some completely unnecessary stuff. I think you need to get hold of your emotions mate.

Did you read the bit where I was talking about the "entire AFL community"????  The same AFL community that is required to be 100% vaxed?  The fact that this virus is not stopped by the vaccine means that many of them will likely be infected at some stage. The fact they are vaxed means they should not become as sick as otherwise, but it will affect teams during the season nontheless.

So why post something that we all knew anyway? I wasn't arguing that the vaccine doesn't provide protection.

 

[faultydet 7,619]

43 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Mask wearing cuts infections by 53 per cent

(Link to the original study (BMJ) included in the article)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-mask-wearing-cuts-infections-by-53-per-cent/#ixzz7CpklpyN9

Great, you can wear mine also and be 106% protected.

 

[dieter 3,325]

31 minutes ago, 58er said:

You should be celebrating the life you can live in Oz not harbouring regrets and resentment for all your life. Life is still about choices but they are limited at times and we can't change some that are out of our control generally. 

One of life's challenges is to compartmentalise our life. Live in the moment and smell the roses.

If when we hear of some bad or sad news react appropriately but try an not let it rule our week or diminish other good in your life. No doubt that is a challenge with family friends and a very new threat for some people called  Covid.

Sadly we have to live with it but in the future it will seem like a harsher version of the flu sometimes  no doubt. 

Good lunch and always be positive about the Dees now mOre MFCSS if you had any!! 

 

Thanks for the advice; I certainly know how to enjoy what I have, just for the record. I have neither regrets, nor resentments. In fact, I learned a lot about living in the moment from  my mother. She told me that for her the Ukraine wasn't about the Soviet guards of their camp, rather, it was about the sunflowers which came out in spring every year, about the wonderful family who took her in and fed her on that one day a month when she was free. She also used to say she loved the sound of the Russian and Ukrainian languages. She lived until she was 91. She was a happy, integrated Australian who attended Adult Ed English classes until she was 90.

I've also understood - and this is not to be a smarty bum or contradictory - but life isn't, in fact, about compartments, rather, it's about understanding the interconnectedness of all things. I've become interested in Aboriginal concepts,  what they call their culture,  and I understand that they, in essence, are talking about the same thing - the interconnectedness of life, of the universe. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

Relatively depressing article on the likelihood of a new variant from today's Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant

[Deestar9 1,647]

12 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Relatively depressing article on the likelihood of a new variant from today's Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant

Don't we get new flu variants every year …covid will be no different 

[binman 43,704]

10 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

Don't we get new flu variants every year …covid will be no different 

Except in its impact.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,906]

18 hours ago, Macca said:

Not vaccinated, no entry.  Not a threat, common sense. Greater good and all that.  We are still in the mode of curtailing the spread of covid (for good reason)

I'm not really into handouts but maybe some sort of taxation break to push things closer ...  dangle some sort of carrot

You got any ideas apart from a cash incentive?... didn't Albanese have an idea to offer $350 per person to hurry things along?

My preference is 100% double vaxxed and I've noticed we've achieved that percentage for first dose in the nations capital. Seems a stretch but surely we can get to 97% if 95% is achievable

While I've got you LDvC ... if we assume that covid positive footy players have to sit it out,  do we do the same with close contact players to that covid positive player? (or players)  Coaches as well?  What if that scenario happens on the morning of a match?

If we have hard and fast rules then the teams are going to have players in and out of the side (remembering that double vaxxed players can still contract covid)

I like the Singapore model. In that country, if you've chosen to remain unvaccinated, you have to pay for all your health care costs associated with catching Covid. However, I can't see that happening here. Instead, I would support an additional Medicare levy being imposed on those who remain unvaccinated by choice. That levy would help defray - but probably not fully cover - the health cover costs for the unvaccinated who we know will be more likely to contract Covid and if they do, be more likely to require hospital treatment.

I realise that the above is a stick, not a carrot. I'm not sure we need any further rewards to encourage the late adopters. I think the model whereby exclusion from things such as entertainment, non-essential retail and events should be sufficient.

[Deestar9 1,647]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Except in its impact.

True…but pre flu shots & natural immunity, deaths from flu ( Spanish flu etc) were horrific. We know Covid won’t disappear but in time with vaccines & immunity build up…the same will occur & we will live with & only the vulnerable (as with flu today) will be compromised.

[Lucifers Hero 40,309]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Except in its impact.

There is report that indicates the impact of Influenza is as bad as or worse than covid 19. after-two-years-of-low-cases-big-influenza-season-is-coming

"Influenza cases this year have been more than 236 times lower than the five-year average for the same period, with just 600 lab-confirmed influenza cases and no deaths to date, the federal Department of Health said.

It’s in stark contrast with the last pre-pandemic flu season, in which more than 306,000 lab-confirmed cases and 948 deaths were recorded, according to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. There were nearly 247,000 cases and 1163 deaths in 2017".

I don't know how those numbers compare to the covid case/death numbers over the same time but it doesn't look good.  Admittedly, in Victoria we have been in lockdown for much of that time to halt the spread of the flu but not in all states.

Influenza can be a dangerous disease.  Hopefully more people will get the flu vaccine and reduce the risk all round.  Or we could be dealing with large case numbers for both illnesses.

[binman 43,704]

6 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

There is report that indicates the impact of Influenza is as bad as or worse than covid 19. after-two-years-of-low-cases-big-influenza-season-is-coming

"Influenza cases this year have been more than 236 times lower than the five-year average for the same period, with just 600 lab-confirmed influenza cases and no deaths to date, the federal Department of Health said.

It’s in stark contrast with the last pre-pandemic flu season, in which more than 306,000 lab-confirmed cases and 948 deaths were recorded, according to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. There were nearly 247,000 cases and 1163 deaths in 2017".

I don't know how those numbers compare to the covid case/death numbers over the same time but it doesn't look good.  Admittedly, in Victoria we have been in lockdown for much of that time to halt the spread of the flu but not in all states.

Influenza can be a dangerous disease.  Hopefully more people will get the flu vaccine and reduce the risk all round.  Or we could be dealing with large case numbers for both illnesses.

The impact of Influenza is not as bad as or worse than covid 19, or at least that is my understanding.

From the BMJ (a medical journal) on this very point:

Which is more dangerous, flu or covid?

'Research published in The BMJ last December, which was based on an analysis of US Department of Veterans Affairs data on more than 3600 patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, found that, when compared with seasonal flu, covid was associated with an increased risk of extrapulmonary organ dysfunction, death, and increased health resource use, such as a fivefold higher risk of admission to intensive care and longer stays in hospital. Deaths from covid-19 were most pronounced in people over 75 with chronic kidney disease or dementia and in black people with obesity, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that in the US there were 1.8 deaths from flu per 100 000 population between 1999 and 2019.8 The estimated death rate from covid was 217.54 per 100 000 in the US and 206.73 per 100 000 in the UK.

The global figure for the covid-19 death rate is estimated at 279 per 100 000 population.

In the UK the Health Foundation has articulated the difference in impact between flu and covid in terms of life years. “In a bad flu year on average around 30 000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia, with a loss of around 250 000 life years. This is a sixth of the life years lost to covid-19,” it noted.

 

[Lucifers Hero 40,309]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

The impact of Influenza is not as bad as or worse than covid 19, or at least that is my understanding.

From the BMJ (a medical journal) on this very point:

Which is more dangerous, flu or covid?

'Research published in The BMJ last December, which was based on an analysis of US Department of Veterans Affairs data on more than 3600 patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, found that, when compared with seasonal flu, covid was associated with an increased risk of extrapulmonary organ dysfunction, death, and increased health resource use, such as a fivefold higher risk of admission to intensive care and longer stays in hospital. Deaths from covid-19 were most pronounced in people over 75 with chronic kidney disease or dementia and in black people with obesity, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that in the US there were 1.8 deaths from flu per 100 000 population between 1999 and 2019.8 The estimated death rate from covid was 217.54 per 100 000 in the US and 206.73 per 100 000 in the UK.

The global figure for the covid-19 death rate is estimated at 279 per 100 000 population.

In the UK the Health Foundation has articulated the difference in impact between flu and covid in terms of life years. “In a bad flu year on average around 30 000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia, with a loss of around 250 000 life years. This is a sixth of the life years lost to covid-19,” it noted.

Our examples are discussing different things with different statistical bases.  

I'm not even going to try to bring the two views to a statistically equivalent basis.  Suffice to say comparing the examples we have quoted is like comparing apples and oranges.

The point was that the impact of influenza can be just as bad as covid and we need more people have flu vaccines to avoid dealing with both diseases simultaneously.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,906]

43 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

There is report that indicates the impact of Influenza is as bad as or worse than covid 19. after-two-years-of-low-cases-big-influenza-season-is-coming

"Influenza cases this year have been more than 236 times lower than the five-year average for the same period, with just 600 lab-confirmed influenza cases and no deaths to date, the federal Department of Health said.

It’s in stark contrast with the last pre-pandemic flu season, in which more than 306,000 lab-confirmed cases and 948 deaths were recorded, according to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. There were nearly 247,000 cases and 1163 deaths in 2017".

I don't know how those numbers compare to the covid case/death numbers over the same time but it doesn't look good.  Admittedly, in Victoria we have been in lockdown for much of that time to halt the spread of the flu but not in all states.

Influenza can be a dangerous disease.  Hopefully more people will get the flu vaccine and reduce the risk all round.  Or we could be dealing with large case numbers for both illnesses.

The maths might be right, but I don't think the English is. Does the expression "more than 236 times lower than..." actually make any sense? Do they mean, perhaps, the the lower number is 1/236th of the higher number?