My Round 6 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,768]

5-0. Looks good to me.

5 rounds in…. 5 wins…. 20 premiership points. Second spot on the ladder.

That is as good as it gets at this stage of any season.

At my stage of life, I have a hell of a lot more long winding road behind me than open road in front of me.  On the well worn, dusty path that has been my journey thus far I have done a myriad of different things, lived, worked and travelled to a bunch of different places on our earth however it seems that always as a constant has been my support of the Dees. As it is for me, it is for the Melbourne Football Club; there is a long and winding road behind and an open road in front.  

Never has the phrase “one game at a time” been more pertinent for this list. They look to be ticking off each game and then settling in for the next challenge no matter what the past results may have been.

How good is it – Last week a win over the cats, this week a win over the hawks and next week the possibility of a trifecta with a win over the tigers.

Makes me smile to think about it the possibility.

The Musketeers did the job on Hawthorn. Hawthorn asked a few questions of us for the first half, and we had the answers. Second half, we asked the questions, and they had no answers. Great game from Max and I was interested to hear Goodwin say in his presser that it is Max that calls the shots on the ground as to when Jackson rucks and when he does. It is working well.

4th quarter was Musketeer Time. The whole team swashed a few buckles. Loved it

And so, to the Round 6 encounter with the Tigers at the G on Saturday evening in the match of the round. Richmond have been very good for a long time and have a mature, well drilled team with a few players that are exceptional. However, it is hard to know what to make of their form so far this season. They won against Carlton, Hawthorn and St. Kilda as you would expect but dropped a game at the G against Sydney and a close one against Port interstate. Not exactly encouraging for Tiger fans.

I want these 4 points to ensure that we put another game into the gap between the two sides and to preserve the winning run.

The facts:

We are coming off a win at the G against the Hawks- Advantage us.

We were not up to standard for the first half – Advantage them

They had a big win over the Saints at Marvel - Advantage them

They have a few extra days rest. – Advantage them

Problem areas of the game for us (yep, we have a few problem areas to address after the game on Sunday):

I love the confidence in the team. They are confident in their teammates, confident in the structures that are in place and confident in their ability to run out games. This was evident in the game on Sunday. They worked the way they needed to, made adjustments that were required on the run and ran over the top in the last.

Our defensive structure passed the test with Petty slotting into May’s spot and, once he picked up the pace of the game and settled, he was effective. He will be better for the run and if May is not 100% will be an adequate tall defender with Tomlinson and Lever around him. I was mildly surprised to see Jetta dropped in favour of Hibberd, but one that I supported. It was a good call with Hibberd producing an excellent game. A big test for our defenders this week with one of the best performed forward structures of recent times up against them. Riewoldt, Lynch and Martin in the forward area says it all. I think we can contain them if we break even in the middle.

They have a very good midfield that is consistent across the board. Graham, Edwards and Castagna all give excellent drive out of the center and all are dangerous when given a sniff at a goal. For us, Oliver, Viney and Landon can, in my opinion, match and beat that lot. Dusty for them and Trac for us are the X factor in the midfield mix. Both are explosive players that can play through the middle and can move forward to kick goals. Which of these will have the most influence? Hard to predict.

Max and Luke sharing the ruck duties last week and both had a lot more hitouts that McEvoy. Up against Nankervis this week will be a test, but I leave it to Max to call the shots during the game and use his smarts.

Now for the forwards…….

The good; we kicked a winning score last week. Different players bobbed up at different times and it all came together in the last.

The bad; Our forward pressure, or lack thereof in the first half.

The ugly; connection issues between mids and forwards in the first 2 quarters

It is going to be a three cheese platter night at the selection table this week with the main focus on the forward structure and who to play there. I do not think Fritsch will be fit this week, but we have a couple of fit, in form tall forwards that it would be nice to find space for but not at the expense of our present forward structure. I would bring in one of Wiedeman or B Brown for M Brown. Mitch was good but the other two provide more of a threat to Richmond. Which ever way we go, I think we have the firepower and flexibility up front to cause a few problems for the defenders.

Prediction? With confidence I predict a Demons win. Margin? 5 goals.

The bandwagon has hit the road….. the open road, not the long and winding one. Purring along and gathering speed. Plenty of seating for all…. Hop on board.

[loges 6,767]

We won't be favourites , advantage us.

[Big Col 1,347]

If we win by 5 goals, the lid won't just be off, it'll be thundering down the road in a gale.

 

[deebug 1,754]

28 minutes ago, Big Col said:

If we win by 5 goals, the lid won't just be off, it'll be thundering down the road in a gale.

 

All aboard the Dee train ?

 

29 minutes ago, Big Col said:

If we win by 5 goals, the lid won't just be off, it'll be thundering down the road in a gale.

 

 

[640MD 3,431]

Like this idea

Richmond had been playing terrible, like spoilt brats who expected no opposition 

until the saints shocked them into a winning mindset   They may be over confident again. Especially in that they have a much longer break. 
after watching Casey I expect Weid to play. I expect him to play well. Class above the VFL. 
we at least will be expecting a. Very hard game. So we will not be taking it easy in the first. 
I think, a one or two goal lead to Richmond at quarter time 

one goal lead to us at the half then we will run away Until they get 3 late goals

3 or 4 goal win to us. Riewoldt or Lynch will be reported and that will be the media’s focus. Probably Lynch,

I can remember 1965, hope the Red Fox is cheering so we can go past. 

[leave it to deever 17,517]

1 hour ago, loges said:

We won't be favourites , advantage us.

Our mids were beaten for 3 qrts. Wont happen again Advantage us.

Wied kicked seven in the reserves, adavantage us.

Max in career best form, advantage us. Kozzie to play his best game ever, advantage us.

Must be close to evens on game day but happy not to be faves.

The media hasnt gone crazy about us thank goodness, but I imagine if we win, they will be all over us.

When was the last time we were six nil?

Its starting to get very very exciting especially with top players returning.

I think this will be a close two or three goal win.

Hopefully we are accurate.

[kev martin 10,416]

We have become relevant.

These have been our premier games for such along time. By which I mean, kind of our final series, Anzac and queens birthday. The crowds and all that emotion. I can see us lift to play a beautiful, contested and highly skilled game.

What a great time to meet the Tiges, 6 nil, and we are still building our game. (Oops, optimistically and premonitory, it is 5 nil).

We are taller, fitter and I hope hungrier for a win.

Tiges will hang in there with us, unless they come out early and blast us. Anyway, at one stage, I expect they will take control and kick 3 or 4 unanswered goals, then they will bring pressure. Their run will start as a result of turnovers. Like other games, this year we have fought back from the onslaught and I expect we can do the same.

If we can minimise turnovers from their pressure we win.

Hoping we don't start playing too cute. Would like to see us get the basics right and then go fast when the opportunity presents.

Would rather get them now then later in the season. If we get the lollies then they play the doggies who may also beat them, they could be 3 and 4 and the season opens up for many teams.

I see they are giving teams more opportunities from their own turnovers. If we bring the pressure they may crack.

They score sometimes playing the dirty, scrambling game of push it forward and keep hustling, that manic chaotic style. Hope we stop this, by getting in the trenches with them and getting our hands on the ball before they do. 

I thought there backline was a bit fragile. Crimes has been making some mistakes and with Baker up the field they are missing his determination to get to the contest, his drive, and smart decision making.

Their small forwards are dangerous, Arts, Castagna and especially Bolton.  Hope we can stop him, Dusty and probably Gotchin.

Nankervis against Gawn and Jackson will be a highlight, I think we win that. We have been getting our clearances right, after a slow start at it.

Oliver and Tracc will beat them and Viney will keep us in the game.

Our field marking has been excellent. 

We control the tempo of the game well.

If we can convert our shots to goals and have score pressure, it would go along way to helping us win

Tigers coming off an easy win, that could lull them with a sense of superiority and entitlement. They better be up for it because I think we will be.

Take the fight to them, and do what the Swans did. Made them be more accountable by hitting players lace out within 30 meters to break their zone defence. The Swans also caused them to turn the ball over. They are vulnerable to pressure.

Go Dees.

 

 

 

  

Edited April 19, 2021 by kev martin

[BDA 22,890]

This is THE test. The premiers and benchmark team the past few seasons.

We’re 5-0 and playing well but there are some areas of concern for me.

Forward pressure was well off v the Hawks. Kozzie, Spargo and Nibbler gotta bring the heat.

Big ask for Petty to take one of Riewoldt or Lynch. He grew into the game last week but this will be a real baptism of fire for the boy. We really need May for this game.

We have to nail our set-shots early and apply scoreboard pressure. We will not get away with bad misses this weekend.

Dusty Martin is a freak – advantage them. Can’t let this bloke off the leash. Is he taggable?

I’m 50/50 about this one. If we take our opportunities and kick straight we’re a big chance.

[kev martin 10,416]

11 hours ago, Better days ahead said:

Dusty Martin is a freak – advantage them. Can’t let this bloke off the leash. Is he taggable?

He can have off days, but he never has an off moment. He can always create something when it is needed.

[kev martin 10,416]

What a great match to get.

Saturday night prime time, Anzac eve, against the proven bench mark.

The other Anzac game of Colly and the Bombs, has nothing really going for it other than the rivalry. 

We have to be in with a good chance.

Don't want to be blown out of the water.

The Toges would love to reassert themselves, hoping they are not that good this year and we bury them, pop their entitlement bubble.

C'mon Dees, perfect footy.

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by kev martin

[DubDee 26,121]

This is THE ANZAC game this weekend. what a great job the club did securing this game.

Saturday night will be a test of our maturity. Those who asked what happened in Perth in the Prelim. I'll tell ya: Trac, Gawn, Viney, Oliver etc were 3 years younger and immature imo. have we grown up? I reckon we have.

May and Lever is the best defensive combination in the league.

Not sure we will win, but we will give it a red hot shake.

[CHF 2,768]

40 minutes ago, DubDee said:

This is THE ANZAC game this weekend. what a great job the club did securing this game.

Saturday night will be a test of our maturity. Those who asked what happened in Perth in the Prelim. I'll tell ya: Trac, Gawn, Viney, Oliver etc were 3 years younger and immature imo. have we grown up? I reckon we have.

May and Lever is the best defensive combination in the league.

Not sure we will win, but we will give it a red hot shake.

It is a great game to get. a real feature of our fixture calendar. 

I cannot help but smile at this season's ANZAC day 'blockbuster' with 14th Vs. 16th on the ladder and little hope of either making the finals.

[Pates 9,660]

I see this game as a free hit in a lot of ways, number one most important thing is to stay with them deep into the match. The majority of the competition (and its fair to say our supporters) don’t think we’ll win but if we show enough to indicate that we can match them pound for pound we lose nothing we weren’t expecting to lose. If we win on the other hand the lid could well and truly be off!

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

On 4/19/2021 at 8:52 PM, 640MD said:

Like this idea

Richmond had been playing terrible, like spoilt brats who expected no opposition 

until the saints shocked them into a winning mindset   They may be over confident again. Especially in that they have a much longer break. 
after watching Casey I expect Weid to play. I expect him to play well. Class above the VFL. 
we at least will be expecting a. Very hard game. So we will not be taking it easy in the first. 
I think, a one or two goal lead to Richmond at quarter time 

one goal lead to us at the half then we will run away Until they get 3 late goals

3 or 4 goal win to us. Riewoldt or Lynch will be reported and that will be the media’s focus. Probably Lynch,

I can remember 1965, hope the Red Fox is cheering so we can go past. 

Lynch is similar to Hawkins at times in that regard.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

Jeremy Cameron is the other one.

[In Harmes Way 7,823]

First time Kozzie, Rivers and Jackson have played in front of 70000+ supporters. Welcome to the big stage.

[John Crow Batty 8,879]

Richmond will squirm at the prospect of being 3-3 and likely 2 games out of top 4. They have more to lose.  They will come with all guns blazing and eager to spoil the Jones celebration as well. We are riding on cloud 9, what could go wrong?  I hope the players are a 100% switched on.

Edited April 22, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

16 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

First time Kozzie, Rivers and Jackson have played in front of 70000+ supporters. Welcome to the big stage.

You can add James Jordon, Tom Sparrow, Ed Langdon, Steven May and Harrison Petty to that list.  Not all of them will play but at least three will.

[old55 23,701]

8 hours ago, Pates said:

I see this game as a free hit in a lot of ways, number one most important thing is to stay with them deep into the match. The majority of the competition (and its fair to say our supporters) don’t think we’ll win but if we show enough to indicate that we can match them pound for pound we lose nothing we weren’t expecting to lose. If we win on the other hand the lid could well and truly be off!

Agree.

I definitely this we can win, particularly if May plays - I think he's one of the very few players who could possibly go with Dusty forward and I hope he takes this match-up a la vs Toby Green.  Dusty is a very smart player - he goes the "don't argue" on ANB - I'd love to see him try it on May, Viney or Oliver - but he won't, he'll dish it off beautifully when he sees them coming.  For me, he's in the frame for GOAT.

I think Prestia and Vlastuin out hurts them.

Even a close loss is not a bad outcome psychologically - they'll think they have us covered and we'll recognise that we need to continue to work hard to improve to get them..

Edited April 22, 2021 by Pollyanna

[faultydet 7,619]

Tigers by 4 goals.

We are not at that level yet.

[Young Blood 2,634]

12 minutes ago, faultydet said:

Tigers by 4 goals.

We are not at that level yet.

I'm unsure of what level we're at just yet. We've only played average teams (Freo, Hawthorn) or good teams who have performed poorly (Geelong, St Kilda). GWS we got away with easier because of all the injuries.

So basically after four quarters on Saturday night we'll know if we're at that level.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Yung Blood

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

51 minutes ago, faultydet said:

Tigers by 4 goals.

We are not at that level yet.

tend to agree

The hawks game was probably our best and even then it took over three quarters to get on top on the scoreboard.

If we are to win I think Oliver will need to have a BOG performance.

My real MFCSS worry is a blowout followed by a wet and windy 50/50 game the next week against North

[PaulRB 6,411]

Truly cant tell if we're ready to duke it out with the Tigers, as thus far this season we've rarely been challenged for any sustained period. So Saturday, assuming the Tiggers bring their A-game, will be our first genuine test for a full four quarters this season.

Fascinated to see how the individuals, team, structures, connections, communication and morale hold up. 

As others have said, will reveal a lot about where we are at.

Go Demons

Edited April 22, 2021 by PaulRB

[Vipercrunch 2,827]

Nathan Jones 300th

Dusty Martins 250th

It's rare to have both sides celebrating such huge milestones in the same game.  How each side, but in particular how we, cope with that in addition to the blockbuster occasion will be another test of our developing maturity.  The urge to play well for Jones will be there, but how it is harnessed positiviely will be key to the outcome.

 

I'd love to be confident enough to tip Melbourne, but I can't bring myself to this week.  ??

Tigers by 23

[Bimbo 940]

14 hours ago, DubDee said:

This is THE ANZAC game this weekend. what a great job the club did securing this game.

Saturday night will be a test of our maturity. Those who asked what happened in Perth in the Prelim. I'll tell ya: Trac, Gawn, Viney, Oliver etc were 3 years younger and immature imo. have we grown up? I reckon we have.

May and Lever is the best defensive combination in the league.

Not sure we will win, but we will give it a red hot shake.

Just considered your post.

The real thing that has changed since the 2018 prelim final is the personnel.  

(with conservative changes of May and Weideman in and Brown and Petty out) Missing from the 2018 Preliminary Final team are:
Jetta

Oscar

Lewis

J Smith

Frost

Hannan

Harmes

Vandenberg

Tyson

They have been replaced by:

May

Langdon

Jordon

Hunt

Tomlinson

Lever

Jackson

Rivers

Pickett

 

I have not considered Fritsch - as the selector oddly also didn't in 2018 - and BBB - who will both come in later

I think the team is better now

And that is not taking into account we now have 100 game players in Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Gawn and Viney.

 

And if I can say nice things about the club, of the 9 players who didn't play in the 2018 preliminary final, 4 have been cherry picked from other clubs, 4 have been subsequent draft picks and Hunt has found his mojo.

 

I wouldn't dare say we are a top team yet.  But I am excited