How much will Melbourne improve in 2020??

[Macca 16,972]

1 minute ago, old dee said:

Well Macca I agree with a couple of items on your list, not sure our whole forward line is dysfunctional but we definitely only have one key forward and he needs to turn around a very ordinary 2019. I find it difficult to see us kicking a winning score against the top sides. 

And sadly I share your lack of enthusiasm for our coaching department.

our season will IMO turn on how many injuries we get to our better players, I am assuming a better run than this year AVB is vital to our chances.

Having said that I still think we can win 13- 14 games and make eighth place. 

Our forward line (as a whole) was mostly dysfunctional in 2019 and we needed to change things up in that area.  We've drafted a forward/ruckman (pick 3) and spent a top 10 pick on a small forward.

So the FD must believe we've got some issues to address in our forward line. 

Again,  on paper the forward line looks ok but that's not how it panned out in 2019.  The delivery to the forward line was often poor as well but it would help a lot if our forwards played in front and got to the right spots. 

To be a top 4 team you generally need a forward line that is firing on all cylinders.  And to be consistent finals team the forward line can't be anything worse than B or B+

I would give our forward line in 2019 a 'D' so there's a lot to make up,  old dee.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

Just now, Forest Demon said:

Tbf, one poster made that claim, most likely without looking at the above list. But regardless, Fritsch as a full time forward is a real weapon.

Wasn't just referring to that one claim though. There seems to be a lot of 'we will improve because this will happen and this will happen etc etc' without any evidence to back up the claims being made.

I'm 100% a Fritsch fan, particular forward, reminds me a lot of Green in the way he plays there, but I just prefer to try and base predictions on evidence rather than make a guess about a result by guessing things that will lead to it.

[Little Goffy 14,546]

15 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Seems to be a lot of eggnog being consumed along with the 'optimism' on Demonland currently.

So, you're saying Fritsch (who I'm a fan of btw) is better than at least six of Kelly, Rayner, Dow, Stephenson, Cerra, Higgins, Ryan and Naughton? Wouldn't think he's anywhere near 'consolidating' a spot among the top 3 there if we're using evidenced based metrics.

 

Fair enough - it's a big call but not an eggnog-level call! 

I'll start by just going 'yep, Tim Kelly'.

I'm basing it on 16 goals in those final seven games when he was allowed to settle forward.  For a mid-sized half-forward in a team which only managed 66 points a game in that period, that's phenomenal.  Pushed out to a full season that would work out to a neat 50 goals.

So, my call is basically that Fritsch's form of late 2019 once he was moved permanently forward is how he will continue in 2020, and that, without any further improvement, puts him right up among the top class of goalkickers, never mind half-forwards.

Meanwhile, the top-pick midfielder Rayner, Brayshaw, Cerra, Dow all look great but are lucky to crack 20 disposals in a game and only Brayshaw has really earned the contested ball and tackling credits. Hell, those guys were all supposed to be midfielders when drafted and Fritsch has them all covered even on possession counts.  They're all good players but there';s nothing the likes of Walsh, Taranto or Oliver among them.

Liam Ryan and Jack Higgins are beautiful players who have done great things coming into top teams and been very effective as creative small forwards.  Would be completely happy if Pickett followed their level! 

Jaidyn Stephenson is similar in the sense that he has had a clear role in a top team - luxuries denied to Fritsch.  He also deserves a lot of credit for showing consistency. He's the most like-for-like rival to Fritsch in terms of role (assuming Fritsch is allowed to settle forward).  It'll be a head-to-head comparison to watch in 2020.

Aaron Naughton has had some GREAT!!! games and if that becomes anything like his norm then he'll be a superstar. But he's also turned in more than a few stinkers or had minimal real effect for many games.  Impressions are influenced by just how memorable his best games have been.

There's some others of note, like Worpel, Miers, and a few kids of course who might just emerge a bit in 2020.

But that's not a big pool to pick from and the fact is that if Fritsch delivers in future what he showed in those last seven or eight rounds of 2019 then he is a truly elite half-forward.

Plus, turns out 2017 was a weak draft that we did well to trade out of.  Hopefully the same is true of 2020.

 

 

[Lord Nev 13,512]

1 minute ago, Little Goffy said:

Fair enough - it's a big call but not an eggnog-level call! 

I'll start by just going 'yep, Tim Kelly'.

I'm basing it on 16 goals in those final seven games when he was allowed to settle forward.  For a mid-sized half-forward in a team which only managed 66 points a game in that period, that's phenomenal.  Pushed out to a full season that would work out to a neat 50 goals.

So, my call is basically that Fritsch's form of late 2019 once he was moved permanently forward is how he will continue in 2020, and that, without any further improvement, puts him right up among the top class of goalkickers, never mind half-forwards.

Meanwhile, the top-pick midfielder Rayner, Brayshaw, Cerra, Dow all look great but are lucky to crack 20 disposals in a game and only Brayshaw has really earned the contested ball and tackling credits. Hell, those guys were all supposed to be midfielders when drafted and Fritsch has them all covered even on possession counts.  They're all good players but there';s nothing the likes of Walsh, Taranto or Oliver among them.

Liam Ryan and Jack Higgins are beautiful players who have done great things coming into top teams and been very effective as creative small forwards.  Would be completely happy if Pickett followed their level! 

Jaidyn Stephenson is similar in the sense that he has had a clear role in a top team - luxuries denied to Fritsch.  He also deserves a lot of credit for showing consistency. He's the most like-for-like rival to Fritsch in terms of role (assuming Fritsch is allowed to settle forward).  It'll be a head-to-head comparison to watch in 2020.

Aaron Naughton has had some GREAT!!! games and if that becomes anything like his norm then he'll be a superstar. But he's also turned in more than a few stinkers or had minimal real effect for many games.  Impressions are influenced by just how memorable his best games have been.

There's some others of note, like Worpel, Miers, and a few kids of course who might just emerge a bit in 2020.

But that's not a big pool to pick from and the fact is that if Fritsch delivers in future what he showed in those last seven or eight rounds of 2019 then he is a truly elite half-forward.

Plus, turns out 2017 was a weak draft that we did well to trade out of.  Hopefully the same is true of 2020.

 

 

Great post mate, love a good analytical one!

Totally agree Fritsch looked the goods in those last few games, and seems we can lock him in for the forward line next year, but I'm not sure you can expect him to carry that form all the way through a season, particularly once he has other forward options around him more often that take a big chunk of that opportunity away. Let's remember the 3 games where he kicked bags there was no TMac, Weid or Smith(s), and the other forward options were a 19 year old key defender and a 33 year old half back.

I especially wouldn't be judging Rayner, Cerra and Dow purely by disposal counts at this stage though, and remember Fristch has 3 years on them, and as much as I love Fritsch, geez imagine having Rayner, Higgins or Ryan in our forward line!

My response wasn't meant as a slight on him at all, I rate him very very highly, just think top 3 in his draft year might be a stretch.

 

[Little Goffy 14,546]

28 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

My response wasn't meant as a slight on him at all, I rate him very very highly, just think top 3 in his draft year might be a stretch.

 

Let's go corporate speak and call it is his 'stretch goal' then.

Quite right that it'll all come down to consistency.  But I'm not worried about rivals up forward - a return to 2018 attacking power compared to 2019 is worth close to 120 goals (1570 points for vs 2300) to share around!

Ugh.  I just got a shudder at the exposure to just how much we stalled in 2019.  All is well.  All is well.  All is well.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

We won't lose a game in 2020.

[Roost it far 8,276]

It’s a great opportunity to win the flag. If, and it’s a big if, we can keep a settled 22 injury free and win the close ones Richmond remains the team to beat. Must capitalise on a strong preseason and finish top 4. Was 2018 a fluke? 

I’m really only interested in a flag, seen other clubs improve quickly and can’t see why that can’t be us. I’m confident as still think our best 22 playing together is a good side.

oh and I think some here massively over rate Fritsch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t find himself back at Casey as he continues to develop

[Demonised 1,354]

I'd like to be in a position where we can look back on 2020 as the first leg of our premiership threepeat.

[SPC 3,549]

Probably not much knowing us 

[58er 6,440]

56 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

It’s a great opportunity to win the flag. If, and it’s a big if, we can keep a settled 22 injury free and win the close ones Richmond remains the team to beat. Must capitalise on a strong preseason and finish top 4. Was 2018 a fluke? 

I’m really only interested in a flag, seen other clubs improve quickly and can’t see why that can’t be us. I’m confident as still think our best 22 playing together is a good side.

oh and I think some here massively over rate Fritsch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t find himself back at Casey as he continues to develop

No evidence to even suspect Fritsch will drop as a player 

Far more likely to improve 

40/50 goals as a forward 

[DeezNuts 624]

Suspect Melbourne and Carlton will be the big movers from last years rankings. I don’t expect the Dees to get top 6 but I actually demand it this year. No more ******* about, get on with it.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,703]

13 hours ago, rjay said:

I expect us to finish top 4 in season 2020.

injury being the only caveat...

It will be a wasted season if we don't.

I think the time has come for us as a supporter base to raise the bar, 2020 is all about playing no excuse football.

This year top 4 is the goal with all the pieces being put in place, burgo jumping on board, players putting in full pre seasons.

Perty with a full year under his belt and has full control of the ship.

If a top 8 finish and a finals win is not achieved, it's a complete bust and Goody is out the door, unless we are decimated by injury.

 

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

On 12/14/2019 at 10:27 AM, brendan said:

Bombers are having a pre season like ours last year, can’t see them making it, Collingwood are starting to get a pretty old list so could also drop out, and Brisbane is interesting they had barely any injuries, plus a tougher draw can they stay up there, with our list if it stays injury free will be a massive fail if we miss the 8 

I liked your post Brendan but mainly because you have picked Essendon and Collingwood to go backwards next year so I didn’t really have a choice

[loges 6,767]

10 hours ago, Roost it far said:

It’s a great opportunity to win the flag. If, and it’s a big if, we can keep a settled 22 injury free and win the close ones Richmond remains the team to beat. Must capitalise on a strong preseason and finish top 4. Was 2018 a fluke? 

I’m really only interested in a flag, seen other clubs improve quickly and can’t see why that can’t be us. I’m confident as still think our best 22 playing together is a good side.

oh and I think some here massively over rate Fritsch. I’d be surprised if he didn’t find himself back at Casey as he continues to develop

I'd be surprised' unless we put him back in defence.

[binman 42,972]

On 12/14/2019 at 11:50 AM, sisso said:

It’s a fail if we don’t make the 8. I think we will unless we end up with the same injury run as last year.

Totally agree.

Not making the 8 will even be a fail if we have the same run with injury now that it looks very promising 70 - 80% of the lisy will achieve the critical kpi of completing 80% of preseason sessions. 

[DubDee 25,869]

I'm bullish and think we will win 10 more games than this year.  15 wins and 4th place.

there are no teams to be afraid of aside the Tigers and they are not unbeatable.  If fit we have the talent and now some finals experience to do very well

Clarry not coming off double shoulder surgery???  40 brownlow votes coming up!!  ?

[Panamapapers 60]

I expect a finish somewhere between 12 and 15

[DubDee 25,869]

On 12/14/2019 at 12:46 PM, Lord Nev said:

Based on what? I might have missed some training reports, but the bits and pieces I've seen haven't talked him up much and a few have been critical of his intensity and attitude.

Missed the start of 2018 due to a poor attitude.

Failed to run both ways this year.

I want it to happen, but this is pure hopeful speculation based on the available evidence.

bit glass half empty there Nev.

you missed the evidence of him playing a great 2018 and coming 3rd in the brownlow. you don't do that running one way. some of his pressure and tackling was amazing in 2018.

he has shown great talent and good application over the years when he has done a preseason

hardly hopeful speculation

[Sir Why You Little 37,039]

46 minutes ago, DubDee said:

bit glass half empty there Nev.

you missed the evidence of him playing a great 2018 and coming 3rd in the brownlow. you don't do that running one way. some of his pressure and tackling was amazing in 2018.

he has shown great talent and good application over the years when he has done a preseason

hardly hopeful speculation

Brayshaw will be good in 2020

he was running on 3 Cylinders last year, as well as being played out of position 

[Lord Nev 13,512]

49 minutes ago, DubDee said:

bit glass half empty there Nev.

you missed the evidence of him playing a great 2018 and coming 3rd in the brownlow. you don't do that running one way. some of his pressure and tackling was amazing in 2018.

he has shown great talent and good application over the years when he has done a preseason

hardly hopeful speculation

Ah yes, the old 'came 3rd in the Brownlow' argument. He also finished 6th in our best and fairest. Which one do you think is a more accurate assessment of his attitude? A shock 3rd placing in the umpire-voted medal he wasn't even invited to, or a 6th place finish judged by his coaches?

Not sure Goodwin agrees with you in regards to the consistency of his application given he dropped him for exactly that reason.

I'm actually quietly up and about for our 2020 and I see Gus as a possible real factor for us, but as I've said in another post, it seems strange to me when people make statements that contradict available evidence.

Dropped due to poor attitude and application, then a shock Brownlow finish (and if we're being brutally honest, he didn't deserve that placing and got it on the back of running forward from the work of others), a horrendous 2019 where his effort was deplorable and we all waited for the injury reason that has never been forthcoming, training reports mentioning his half hearted application this preseason, but apparently magically he's going to be completely different next year just cos. Doesn't make sense to me.

I hope he does turn it all around next year, we need him to, but it would be contrary to evidence.

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Lord Nev

[Lord Nev 13,512]

1 minute ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Brayshaw will be good in 2020

he was running on 3 Cylinders last year, as well as being played out of position 

'Being played out of position' is no excuse for poor application.

Gee wiz, of all the people to lower their expectations...

[Sir Why You Little 37,039]

5 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

'Being played out of position' is no excuse for poor application.

Gee wiz, of all the people to lower their expectations...

Poor application when the forward line is not functioning 

After a while it wears you down. The whole club didn’t work in 2019, including the Coach, he had no answers

Brayshaw is a good player

[Lord Nev 13,512]

7 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Poor application when the forward line is not functioning 

After a while it wears you down. The whole club didn’t work in 2019, including the Coach, he had no answers

Brayshaw is a good player

Not sure what the forward line has to do with this willingness to run.

[dpositive 1,665]

4 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Ah yes, the old 'came 3rd in the Brownlow' argument. He also finished 6th in our best and fairest. Which one do you think is a more accurate assessment of his attitude? A shock 3rd placing in the umpire-voted medal he wasn't even invited to, or a 6th place finish judged by his coaches?

Not sure Goodwin agrees with you in regards to the consistency of his application given he dropped him for exactly that reason.

I'm actually quietly up and about for our 2020 and I see Gus as a possible real factor for us, but as I've said in another post, it seems strange to me when people make statements that contradict available evidence.

Dropped due to poor attitude and application, then a shock Brownlow finish (and if we're being brutally honest, he didn't deserve that placing and got it on the back of running forward from the work of others), a horrendous 2019 where his effort was deplorable and we all waited for the injury reason that has never been forthcoming, training reports mentioning his half hearted application this preseason, but apparently magically he's going to be completely different next year just cos. Doesn't make sense to me.

I hope he does turn it all around next year, we need him to, but it would be contrary to evidence.

 

Lots of good argument there LN and I both agree and disagree. 

Brownlow votes are rarely an indicator of club worth but I feel  you may be being a bit harsh on Brayshaw getting it " on the back of running forward from the work of others". I also recall he was in and under and bursting through, taking hits and getting taps.His disposal was terrible but he sure got a lot of it under the umpires nose.

His placement on the wing or in one on ones showed up his poor disposal and his confidence like the rest of the team was impacted.

BBob mentioned at training that Brayshaw always trained in an style that he looked like he was injured or exhausted, slumped shoulders, slow gait and always last to join huddles. But he, BB, conceded that he always competed enthusiastically and ran and ran during all sims and training exercises, his spirits seems better and he seems to be enjoying himself. He may still have some inner demons with his concussion etc but seems to discard them at training. Perhaps his confidence is , perhaps he is reflecting his teammates confidence. Let's hope so.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

6 minutes ago, dpositive said:

Lots of good argument there LN and I both agree and disagree. 

Brownlow votes are rarely an indicator of club worth but I feel  you may be being a bit harsh on Brayshaw getting it " on the back of running forward from the work of others". I also recall he was in and under and bursting through, taking hits and getting taps.His disposal was terrible but he sure got a lot of it under the umpires nose.

His placement on the wing or in one on ones showed up his poor disposal and his confidence like the rest of the team was impacted.

BBob mentioned at training that Brayshaw always trained in an style that he looked like he was injured or exhausted, slumped shoulders, slow gait and always last to join huddles. But he, BB, conceded that he always competed enthusiastically and ran and ran during all sims and training exercises, his spirits seems better and he seems to be enjoying himself. He may still have some inner demons with his concussion etc but seems to discard them at training. Perhaps his confidence is , perhaps he is reflecting his teammates confidence. Let's hope so.

I've still got very very high hopes for him, and when at his best he gives us one of our very few genuine inside/outside options.

On a semi-related note, I hope we've got some qualified mindfulness or something similar staff involved in the club, we seem to have a fair few on our list who have had very significant confidence battles.