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The Splitting of Pick 8

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Every recruiting manager always says “We were really surprised X slid to our pick, we are thrilled” which is part PR, but also illustrative that different clubs genuinely rate players differently.

Moving down two spots is likely of limited consequence.

If Melbourne KNEW for sure that 8 would bring a bonafide superstar, they would not risk moving down two spots.

Pick 1 is not a guaranteed superstar, so of course pick 8 is not a guaranteed superstar.

Melbourne will have players they rank between 6 and 12 in the draft (12 to include Green and Henry) and all this trade does is move down from getting someone Melbourne ranks 6-9 in the draft down to someone Melbourne ranks 7-12. Jason Taylor talks about players in the mix at a pick.

It means for sure that they will have lost access to two players, but they either think the players are so closely rated it doesn’t matter as they are happy with anyone in the mix range, or they are very confident the player they would likely take at 8 will still be there at 10.

In a long winded way, I’m saying Melbourne have probably turned what is to them something of zero negative value (move back two spots) and traded that to someone who did value the move up, plus got some other draft value while doing it. 

It appears quite shrewd and a win-win for Melbourne and

I know someone who used to do phantom drafts. He did it by talking with recruiters about what they thought other recruiters would do. He had a very good strike rate. So even the consensus draft orders you see are generally based on piecing together second hand intelligence of varying team’s rating of players, not a genuine unified consensus of talent from best to worst. The variations in each team’s rating of players clearly gets bigger the deeper the draft goes.

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5 hours ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

Freo's 2 picks are interesting. i suspect they'll take Robertson and either Ash or Stephens.

i reckon the Blues will grab the other or Serong 

and we will get whichever is left. 

Freo will have 3 picks in a row they will 

7.Robertson

8. Stephens/Ash

9. Match Carlton's bid on Henry

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3 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

You make a good case, I should probably hold my fire until this time next week after we’ve seen where the cards have fallen. I mentioned earlier tonight that I still think that Jackson isn’t a lock at 3, we clearly have a strategy, I know that sounds like an obvious comment, but in recent years I feel our draft selections were influenced by outside noise. 
I don’t mind the look of Stephens and it will be interesting to see when Pickett goes. I think there’s still a surprise to come.

Which picks? 

2015: No one predicted Oliver until close to the draft. Weideman - clearly a key forward was of interest but I'm not sure it was influenced. Later picks.

2016: Just later picks, I only knew of Hannan as a VFL player before draft night. 

2017: I can't remember any buzz about Spargo or Petty to us until right before the draft when Spargo was mocked to us. Spargo, Fritsch, Petty, Baker was a mixed bag of selections. Tall, medium, small.

2018: There was nothing about Sparrow, Jordon, Nietschke or Hore. Add in Bedford at it was a real variety of talent. Mids, backs, forwards.

I think pick 3 is locked in. Most likely Jackson but I can't see a trade. We pick from Jackson, Green and Young as forecast on Road to the draft.

Picks 10 and 28: yes draft strategy will be involved here. I imagine player cut offs for both picks. If player A is available then we draft him. If XYZ are all still on the board we move back a bit. If XYZ are all gone then we move back for different reasons. If pick 10 goes back then pick 28 comes up. All sorts of contingency plans.

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We need to look at the wider strategy here and it appears to me to be that the Club want to bring in as many early picks as they can and I believe that by this swap we lose very little within the top ten picks but definitely gain improvement up the pick line.

The day after the Grand final our pick range was:

Picks: 3, 22, 40, 58, 76

Now we have picks : 3, 10, 28, (future 4th round pick) 97

Overall we have achieved 2 first round picks and brought our third pick overall number 97 down to pick 28. This position is what is more important than all the small minded comment here on this post.

Frankly I applaud the MFC recruiting department for their fortitude in our desire to be a successful team into 2020.

Thinking "out of the box" and out smarting rival clubs is the way to move ahead. Well done MFC

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12 hours ago, Dr evil said:

I've been told by a few people that the player we have in mind for pick 10 is Dylan Stephens. 

we apparently are concerned with Ash's disposal under pressure? maybe some of the draft watches can confirm this. 

Caleb Serong is in the mix as well but Stephens is the one we really like. 

i don't see us splitting the pick again.

Makes sense. Plainly they wouldn’t have traded pick 8 for 10 if they had thought the player/s they’re targeting won’t still be available at pick 10.

And we now get a second rounder.

Prior to this, it was pick 8 and then the distance of the Nullarbor to pick 97. It feels like a much better balanced mix of selections now.

I’m really happy with it - once again, Mahoney seems to have upgraded our picks like a consummate card shark.

 

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15 hours ago, Ohio USA - David said:

We need to look at the wider strategy here and it appears to me to be that the Club want to bring in as many early picks as they can and I believe that by this swap we lose very little within the top ten picks but definitely gain improvement up the pick line.

The day after the Grand final our pick range was:

Picks: 3, 22, 40, 58, 76

Now we have picks : 3, 10, 28, (future 4th round pick) 97

Overall we have achieved 2 first round picks and brought our third pick overall number 97 down to pick 28. This position is what is more important than all the small minded comment here on this post.

Frankly I applaud the MFC recruiting department for their fortitude in our desire to be a successful team into 2020.

Thinking "out of the box" and out smarting rival clubs is the way to move ahead. Well done MFC

It's not 'small minded' for people to highlight concerns over moving up very high only to drift further back. After the Grand Final, the Club also had a first round selection next year, which it now does not.

I haven't read much on here that suggests people are being unreasonable and thinking the Club is imploding for moving back a few spots (and potentially more, as the story seems to be heading). Some are simply suggesting that they would prefer the Club to stay as high as they can, and that the later selections don't provide as much value and/or aren't 'free' as many believe.

What if 10 is split to 14+17? With the first selection (rd. 2 currently) next year being worth something around 40-50(?) after all the F/S and Academy bidding.

I like that the Club is recognising a bad year and is trying to maximise it, but I prefer to maximise by getting as high as possible in the first round this year.

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21 hours ago, Lampers said:

I know someone who used to do phantom drafts. He did it by talking with recruiters about what they thought other recruiters would do. He had a very good strike rate. So even the consensus draft orders you see are generally based on piecing together second hand intelligence of varying team’s rating of players, not a genuine unified consensus of talent from best to worst. The variations in each team’s rating of players clearly gets bigger the deeper the draft goes.

That's a great strategy for getting intel and it's how the order of the top 10 is generally known ahead of the draft.

Recruiters won't say what they'll do but they are more likely to say what they think others will do and you can put the jigsaw together.

It has got more complicated with live pick trading though.

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29 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

That's a great strategy for getting intel and it's how the order of the top 10 is generally known ahead of the draft.

Recruiters won't say what they'll do but they are more likely to say what they think others will do and you can put the jigsaw together.

It has got more complicated with live pick trading though.

I asked the guy who did the phantom drafts why he didn’t get into recruiting, and he said it’s because he actually isn’t that good at spotting talent, he was good at talking with recruiters.

Recruiters will ask the prospects who what other teams have talked to them, how often etc. The recruiters see the other recruiters at an APS game, or the club nominates a player for a state combine. That all gets married with the likely draft pick order at the time to work out who is interested in who and when.

You are spot on that my friend did this pre-live pick trading days, and I suspect as a result the clubs need to scout more players harder now so they feel confident to assess any opportunities presented. That adds more complication and would significantly muddy the waters on who likes who where. It will be interesting to see if phantom drafts become less accurate now as a result.

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normally by this point most of the top 10 is reasonably settled but this year is so fluid. 

sure things in their positions 

1. Rowell

2. Anderson 

3. Jackson/Young/Green

4. Jackson/Green/Ash

5. Flanders

6. Young/Ash

7. Robertson 

8. Serong/Ash/Young/ Stephens 

9. Serong/Ash/Young/Kemp/Weightman 

10. Serong/ Ash/ Stephens/ Young/ Weightman/ Kemp

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15 hours ago, Skuit said:

Why did we spend our hand now?

Why do Freo want to move up two picks?

Draft tampering, that's why.  

 

Carlton involved in the pick trade. We’ve clearly said to Freo at least we will give you access to one extra gun, provided you don’t take X, and Carlton made to understand the same

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18 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

This is now where we stand -

PRIMARY LIST

1. Oskar Baker 
2. Toby Bedford 
3. Angus Brayshaw 
4. Bayley Fritsch 
5. Max Gawn 
6. Mitch Hannan 
7. James Harmes 
8. Michael Hibberd 
9. Marty Hore 
10. Jayden Hunt 
11. Neville Jetta 
12. Nathan Jones 
13. James Jordan 
14. Kade Kolodjiashnij 
15. Ed Langdon 
16. Jake Lever 
17. Oscar McDonald 
18. Tom McDonald 
19. Steven May 
20. Jake Melksham 
21. Alex Neal-Bullen 
22. Aaron Nietschke 
23. Clayton Oliver 
24. Christian Petracca 
25. Harrison Petty 
26. Braydon Preuss 
27. Christian Salem 
28. Charlie Spargo 
29. Joel Smith 
30. Tom Sparrow 
31. Adam Tomlinson 
32. Aaron vandenBerg 
33. Jack Viney 
34. Josh Wagner 
35. Sam Weideman   
36. National Draft Pick 3
37. National Draft Pick 10
38. National Draft Pick 28
39. (Reserved for Rookie Upgrade or Harley Bennell)
40. (Reserved for Rookie Upgrade or Mitch Brown)

ROOKIE LIST: CATEGORY A

1. Kade Chandler 
2. Kyle Dunkley 
3. Jay Lockhart 
4. Corey Wagner  

ROOKIE LIST: CATEGORY B

1. Austin Bradtke 
 

Jack Dyer allegedly told his players to line up alphabetically by height. Right now, if he told players to line up alphabetically by jumper number, only Langdon would know where to stand (*assuming the number he's wearing at training is his assigned number).

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1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Jack Dyer allegedly told his players to line up alphabetically by height.

Was also rumoured to have told them to pair up in threes.

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2 hours ago, Undeeterred said:

Carlton involved in the pick trade. We’ve clearly said to Freo at least we will give you access to one extra gun, provided you don’t take X, and Carlton made to understand the same

OK  so it does seem clear that Freo will not take whoever we are hoping is still there at 8,  if we are targetting X,  so we obviously do not want Freo's choice for 8,  but who will Carlscum take at 9, and if we do not want that player, then absolutely no loss to go from 8 to 10.

Just a win for us.

So I must imagine that the recruiters know who Freo will choose and most likely who Carlscum will choose.

So our only possible loss is the player picked at 9 and did we want him.   So is their a current phantom draft with these swaps in place and who did they have going to the blueduds at 9 ?    Any one got any ideas.

 

Go Dees

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53 minutes ago, demonstone said:

Was also rumoured to have told them to pair up in threes.

Nice man old Jack,   I just know there are three types of people in this world, those that can count and those that cannot !!

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5 hours ago, Dr evil said:

normally by this point most of the top 10 is reasonably settled but this year is so fluid. 

 

8. so Freos pick              Serong/Ash/Young/ Stephens 

9.  Carlton                       Serong/Ash/Young/Kemp/Weightman     why not Stephens here

10. and US                       Serong/ Ash/ Stephens/ Young/ Weightman/ Kemp

Pick 10 cross out 2    for picks 8 and 9       Still a couple of rated players   I think.

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1 hour ago, demonstone said:

Was also rumoured to have told them to pair up in threes.

My 2 favourites are still.

Don't get where the ball ain't.

Stand still son the ball will eventually hit you.

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34 minutes ago, 640MD said:

Nice man old Jack,   I just know there are three types of people in this world, those that can count and those that cannot !!

Actually, there are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary numbers and those who don't.

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Would be very happy if we can escape with Stephens or Serong at 10.

I rate Stephens, but think Serong really suits our needs.

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4 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Would be very happy if we can escape with Stephens or Serong at 10.

I rate Stephens, but think Serong really suits our needs.

I'm kind of hoping Carlton pick Serong, based on their want for another small ala Papley. That would potentially leave us with our choice of Stephens/Kemp.

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On 11/22/2019 at 12:59 AM, DeeSpencer said:

Which picks? 

2015: No one predicted Oliver until close to the draft. Weideman - clearly a key forward was of interest but I'm not sure it was influenced. Later picks.

2016: Just later picks, I only knew of Hannan as a VFL player before draft night. 

2017: I can't remember any buzz about Spargo or Petty to us until right before the draft when Spargo was mocked to us. Spargo, Fritsch, Petty, Baker was a mixed bag of selections. Tall, medium, small.

2018: There was nothing about Sparrow, Jordon, Nietschke or Hore. Add in Bedford at it was a real variety of talent. Mids, backs, forwards.

I think pick 3 is locked in. Most likely Jackson but I can't see a trade. We pick from Jackson, Green and Young as forecast on Road to the draft.

Picks 10 and 28: yes draft strategy will be involved here. I imagine player cut offs for both picks. If player A is available then we draft him. If XYZ are all still on the board we move back a bit. If XYZ are all gone then we move back for different reasons. If pick 10 goes back then pick 28 comes up. All sorts of contingency plans.

DeGoey. 

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There’s a theory that when clubs trade their picks, they usually discuss and agree among themselves as to who they won’t take with the picks swapped. If that’s the case, it’s feasible that we have some consensus from Freo that they won’t select certain players with #7 & #8 leaving Carlton as the party that could spoil our efforts to select who we’re looking at with #10. We could also have agreed with them that we’re leaving Jack Martin alone. This could leave open a clear path for us to get the man we want.

This wouldn’t be so easy or clear cut if we then split 10 for 14 & 17 etc.

Anyhow I think we’re done doing splits.

Edited by Chelly
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39 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

DeGoey. 

Brayshaw was a safe pick and quite possibly a wrong pick but I think our recruiters would've pulled the trigger on Lever not JDG if they took a risk. Wasn't really the right time to take a risk though.

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44 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Brayshaw was a safe pick and quite possibly a wrong pick but I think our recruiters would've pulled the trigger on Lever not JDG if they took a risk. Wasn't really the right time to take a risk though.

Lever was very heavily considered here due to Paul Roos rating his leadership ability. Roos compared him to Paul Kelly and Brett Kirk in terms of leadership and his ability to have a huge influence in terms of driving a positive team culture.

Edited by dazzledavey36
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3 hours ago, Good Lord George said:

I'm kind of hoping Carlton pick Serong, based on their want for another small ala Papley. That would potentially leave us with our choice of Stephens/Kemp.

 

Just can’t see Kemp being in our thoughts. He’s a furphy. I think if he tested at the combine, he would have slipped in the opinions of the majority.

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2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Brayshaw was a safe pick and quite possibly a wrong pick but I think our recruiters would've pulled the trigger on Lever not JDG if they took a risk. Wasn't really the right time to take a risk though.

I’d like to start by saying I love Angus and am a massive fan, I’m not put off him by his output this year for we’ve seen what he’s capable of. I was disappointed when his name was throw up at trade time, I actually think he’s done more to date than Petracca but that’s another discussion for another day. This also isn’t a retrospective should of / could of....

I just thought at the the time (from what I’d read and heard on the radio) that Roos was heavily into DeGoey. I would of thought the recruiters have been tracking these players for years and have a list of needs from the coaching department but ultimately the coach has the final say as he’s normally the first to go when the club isn’t performing.

At the moment are we into Jackson as much as the media / draft commentators are? For many on here it’s a forgone conclusion, so far the interview that was posted on here last week Jackson, Young and someone (can’t remember) were all being considered at pick 3.

 

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