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The Splitting of Pick 8

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I’m not initially a fan of this, would obviously love to know what they’re thinking. Stop diluting the talent.

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I'm a fan of this if we can pick up one of Ash/Young at pick 10. Would make me a lot more comfortable with the risky selection of Jackson at 3.

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16 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

You aren't suggesting he might be played as an on baller now though surely.

No, they wouldn’t play him as an onballer, I am just saying he has the knowledge and athletic ability to be a good running player, not simply a tall marking player.

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I've been told by a few people that the player we have in mind for pick 10 is Dylan Stephens. 

we apparently are concerned with Ash's disposal under pressure? maybe some of the draft watches can confirm this. 

Caleb Serong is in the mix as well but Stephens is the one we really like. 

i don't see us splitting the pick again.

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2 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

Kysiah Pickett, Elijah Taylor or Dylan Williams.

 

2 hours ago, Collar-Jazz-Knee said:

Ned Cahill another

Plenty of upside amongst all of these if they make the step up.

Williams gone under the spotlight a little with some significant time out due to a back issue.

Edited by Rusty Nails

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12 minutes ago, Dr evil said:

I've been told by a few people that the player we have in mind for pick 10 is Dylan Stephens. 

we apparently are concerned with Ash's disposal under pressure? maybe some of the draft watches can confirm this. 

Caleb Serong is in the mix as well but Stephens is the one we really like. 

i don't see us splitting the pick again.

If we’re worried about Ash’s disposal then surely Serong is not in the mix.

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It’s been said many times - you can throw a blanket over 3-14 in this draft. For example Jackson and McAsey(?) now being touted top 5 when 3-4 weeks ago they were 10 and 11. The drop down doesn’t really matter. We will get 3 potential players and then it’s up to them and us to make them great players. 
 

statistcialy the top 10 go on to make it and then goes down from there. A pick at 28 isn’t bad considering that Pickett has only shot up in conversations as we and the dogs liked him. Really could be there at 28 and 4 weeks ago 28 would have been a stretch for him (30-50 range) 

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Stats/history for pick 28. A few decent players there:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks/28

And FWIW, pick 22 isn't really any better, not historically, though going the other way, pick 29 has thrown up some real gems. Of course, you can get great players or duds at any pick.

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22 minutes ago, ben russell said:

If we’re worried about Ash’s disposal then surely Serong is not in the mix.

Would rather Schoenburg than Serong.  Probably the most under rated mid in the draft.  Serong a solid accumulator but disposal isn't the best.

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Just now, Rusty Nails said:

Would rather Schoenburg than Serong.  Probably the most under rated mid in the draft.  Serong a solid accumulator but disposal isn't the best.

Wouldn't that fit in beautifully with our side?

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I don't think there will be a change now until live trading, but depending how the cards fall I can imagine Port trading 12 and 18 for 10 and 28. At 18 maybe Weightman is still there, or Pickett

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2 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

Wouldn't that fit in beautifully with our side?

I hope not RM!

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3 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I’m not initially a fan of this, would obviously love to know what they’re thinking. Stop diluting the talent.

We need top end talent, we should get that at pick 3, but otherwise looking at our list and without digging this up from when I did it the Buckenara thread (so apologies if I miss anyone):

A graders or potential A graders on our list: Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, May, McDonald. Pick 3 (eventually)
B+/B: Lever, Salem, Harmes, Viney, Melksham, Fritsch, Langdon, maybe Jetta, Brayshaw
C+: maybe Hibberd, Tomlinson

That's 16 players who you'd think feature in the best 22 if fit and healthy. Everyone else has a big question mark next to them. Absent from that list: 2nd tall at either end, small forward, classy kicking mids and probably a need for a lock down defender sooner rather than later.

And of course we've got some handy depth and kids, plus injured guys with talent (Vanders, KK, J Smith, Hannan and even Bennell) but do we need to put every egg in one pick 8 basket and pray to get another A grade prospect? Or is what we really need is a couple of talented kids with skills who play their role and provide a bit of class. And is it possible to get both - the highly rated high ceiling player like a gun mid like Kemp or Stephens and pick up a small forward or key defensive prospect with a later pick. 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Pick 28 is not a free hit!

To get 8 we gave up 26 and 50 from 2019 and our 2020 first.

We have now swapped it for 28, and Freo's 2020 fourth ie 55 to 72.

We have actually downgraded 26 to 28 and 50 to next year and swapped next years first for this year's #10.

Its an ok deal but not something to write home about.

😨😫🥺🤕😵😮🤪

All very confusing - I just hope our trade / draft guys know what they are doing. 

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Not sure why we have given up pick 8 for 10 & 28 .. sure a pick in the 20s but are we toddling losing a gun at 8?

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4 hours ago, JTR said:

Surely a bit less of a lottery than having 97 as our third selection?

Didn’t Chris Grand and James Hird go around those picks? (I know there are far more busts than those).

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4 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

Not sure why we have given up pick 8 for 10 & 28 .. sure a pick in the 20s but are we toddling losing a gun at 8?

This is my concern. would be a shame to miss out on someone like Hayden young for the sake of a speculative pick in a shallow draft.

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1 minute ago, Demonsone said:

Not sure why we have given up pick 8 for 10 & 28 .. sure a pick in the 20s but are we toddling losing a gun at 8?

Taylor said in a recent interview that we won't slide from one of our top 10 picks unless we know that the player we want will still be available.  Even if it's a gamble, it is very calculated.  

In his mind, pick 28 is virtually for free. 

Feel better ?

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Why did we spend our hand now?

Why do Freo want to move up two picks?

Draft tampering, that's why.  

 

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as i understand it we had to take 3 players in the draft so 3, 8 and 97. so what were we going to pick up with our last pick, not a lot.

We obviously happy that any of the top 10 or so players available are all capable of giving us a good player. We can argue until to cows come home over which is the best of those available at pick 8 or 10, but truly how much better do people think pick 8 is from pick 10. The main benefit of this deal is that instead of using our last pick which would probably turn into something in the 70's we have a pick around 30. i think its a reasonable sacrifice.

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20 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

Not sure why we have given up pick 8 for 10 & 28 .. sure a pick in the 20s but are we toddling losing a gun at 8?

We may have just missed a gun in Ash.

I don't mind that if we were set at taking Young at 3 but if it was Green (bid) and then say Jackson if GWS match?  I would not rate Stephens at the same level impact wise as an Ash and personally i don't think Weightman is worth pick 10.  The bloke is a beast at the contest and loves to break lines / zones open and hit a marking contest / intercept.

He usually goes long but lowers vision at times and hits up targets a little shorter.  He is going to be a bit more hit and miss than say Young (75% by foot in the Nats vs Ash 70.6%) and turn over a bit more but who isn't?  Ash is also running his [censored] off much of the time meaning he is kicking under fatigue more often, which will impact his accuracy.  His handballs are VERY solid also.  He has an appetite for the contest / stoush, an absolute goer who will leave it all on the park all day, almost every contest!

You want a man to break lines / press off HB and slingshot the ball super quick beyond the 50 and out the back quite a bit for the joe the goose on the fast break?  This was it.

I hope i'm very wrong but this move has potential blunder written all over it.  Almost like we blinked first!  8 is also a VERY lucky number in many circles!

Edited by Rusty Nails
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24 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

We need top end talent, we should get that at pick 3, but otherwise looking at our list and without digging this up from when I did it the Buckenara thread (so apologies if I miss anyone):

A graders or potential A graders on our list: Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, May, McDonald. Pick 3 (eventually)
B+/B: Lever, Salem, Harmes, Viney, Melksham, Fritsch, Langdon, maybe Jetta, Brayshaw
C+: maybe Hibberd, Tomlinson

That's 16 players who you'd think feature in the best 22 if fit and healthy. Everyone else has a big question mark next to them. Absent from that list: 2nd tall at either end, small forward, classy kicking mids and probably a need for a lock down defender sooner rather than later.

And of course we've got some handy depth and kids, plus injured guys with talent (Vanders, KK, J Smith, Hannan and even Bennell) but do we need to put every egg in one pick 8 basket and pray to get another A grade prospect? Or is what we really need is a couple of talented kids with skills who play their role and provide a bit of class. And is it possible to get both - the highly rated high ceiling player like a gun mid like Kemp or Stephens and pick up a small forward or key defensive prospect with a later pick. 

 

 

 

You make a good case, I should probably hold my fire until this time next week after we’ve seen where the cards have fallen. I mentioned earlier tonight that I still think that Jackson isn’t a lock at 3, we clearly have a strategy, I know that sounds like an obvious comment, but in recent years I feel our draft selections were influenced by outside noise. 
I don’t mind the look of Stephens and it will be interesting to see when Pickett goes. I think there’s still a surprise to come.

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Good result, really liking our moves this off season.

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To me it means we definitely want Weightman as our second pick, who is currently rated as mid teens pick.  So why waste pick 8 on him?

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