Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Lord Travis 10,763]

3 minutes ago, SFebes said:

Is it worth 2 first rounds and May or are they saying 2 first rounders and one to be used on May?

The trade seems to be 2 first rounders, with one then ontraded for May.

[Deeman 1,513]

I’m hoping to the Lord above that the Dockers have amnesia over the Colin Sylvia trade.

[DV8 2,271]

17 minutes ago, bobby1554 said:

Would like to know what has changed his mind. Has recently said he was happy here, so something has changed. We know that Watts was moved on due to his attitude regarding rehab to injury. Not suggesting that this has been an issue with Hogan, but something has happened. I cannot believe the club would have instigated this.

 

Injury, well, yeah...  and his efforts in strengthening his weaknesses, and ailments.

Like the weak courage muscle...  and his 2nd, 3rd & 4th efforts, etc.   Because the 1st one was also weak.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

9 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

I'll say it again. Look at the rest of the thread. I've been over this too many times. You wanna say other posters have no idea, check your facts first champ.

Lever was uncontracted and within his RFA period when he was traded for two first rounders. Had we waited 12 months, we could have gotten this deal. The price, even while contracted, will be two first rounders... Look around at what's being reported, read what I have, then come back and apologise in a few weeks when the trade period finishes up. These first rounders we're getting will likely fall from 5 to 6 or 7 and from 10 to 11 or 12 AT BEST. We can't get another Hogan-quality KP forward that's ready to go in 2019 at that price unless Lynch has a change of heart and chooses us. Best case scenario is we somehow get a King brother, who takes 5 years to come good if he doens't do another ACL, if he's any good at all... Where are your 4 flags in a row if that happens? Hogan is a KNOWN quantity, KPF, one of the stars of the comp already and he's leaving us. You tell me what the price is that can help us in 2019...

We're in a window now. Hogan leaving, and us not getting a player of his quality back that's in his prime NOW as Hogan is, is a big loss for us. Picks won't come through for a long time yet, and certainly not in 2019, if they do at all.

This isn't devastating... But you don't improve as a club by training talent like Jesse and watching it leave after 4-5 years. This is exactly why clubs like GC never do anything. They've had star after star leave just as they're hitting their prime... You're kidding yourself if you're a demons supporter and assessing this trade as somehow "better" for us... We're getting bent over. Deal with it.

I understand your perspective but I honestly feel it’s an overreaction. Not only because I rate Hogan a slightly inferior player to the way you view him, but also because this isn’t the NFL or the NBA where a single franchise player can come in and mean the difference between winning a premiership or not. Did the Blues win one with Judd? How are Sydney going with Buddy. Close but no cigar. No, AFL footy is more nuanced and team orientated than that. Key forwards are great but they don’t hold all the aces the way the perhaps once did. Freo will add a fantastic player to their list but the Demons have an opportunity here to make a great fist of this situation and fix up several areas of the 22 which may have otherwise hindered us from winning a premiership/s. Key defence and outside midfield class. If we can bolster these areas and look to Weideman, Petracca and others to step up in class and support TMac in the forward 50, it is very arguable we’ll have a stronger TEAM overall than we would have had Hogan remained. Very arguable.

We beat some top teams without Hogan in 2017 and 2018, including some big victories interstate. He’s a very good player but his loss is not the catastrophe you’re making it out to be ... IF (and that’s a big “if”) we play our cards right here and make those p.ricks out West pay through the nose for him. 

That’s my take anyway.

[deebug 1,754]

1 minute ago, Lord Travis said:

The trade seems to be 2 first rounders, with one then ontraded for May.

Then who do you think we will get with the other pick?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Hey Dappa - I love your passion and how upset you are with the decision from Jesse's end, but in the end, what else can we do here?  I full agree with you that Jesse is a huge talent and, if this all does happen, it will leave a big gap on our list.  Some are underselling his value to our side and, while Weideman gives us plenty of hope for the future, he hasn't consistently had the output that Jesse has.

I'd like to think that two first rounders will help us net Steven May and KK, and while that doesn't add up to Jesse's value, I think their overall additions, as well as the other first rounder, leave us in the best position possible going forward.  I don't think we could theoretically get more.  When Judd left the Eagles got Kennedy, Pick 3 and Pick 20.  Judd was a better player than Hogan, so I think what we'll get is about right, and that's not factoring in the potential to swap later picks as well.

Keep your chin up my friend, I reckon we'll come out of this okay in the end.

Yeah, look. Like I said, it's not a disaster yet... Let's say it was pick 5 (6) and 10 (11) and 10 went for May and KK (pretty close IMO) and 5 got us an Oliver clone... Oliver > Hogan as far as I'm concerned... Then it's a good deal... We have Taylor and he got him as a bolter and he's now our best player... So it's not over yet. Also we're clearing out about 8 players, possibly in anticipation of a superdraft spree... so maybe there's cause for major optimism... in about 3-5 years.

My problem is similar to what @Jadedsaid. You don't get better by trading out your best players. It really is that simple. This is the argument that's come about over the years. Look at every superstar player trade... There's one big name and then there's a bunch of spuds and picks that turn into nothing. You see it again and again... For every Judd example, there's plenty of other ones that go in the other direction.

I think it's an accumulation of other small aspects... The fact that you get up for GFs by timing your list build right. Jesse is exactly what you want if you're threatening for the next 5-7 years. We've lost a HUGE part of the equation that we're almost certainly not going to be able to replace should Weed, Tmac or Preuss (????) go wrong. We've had the Kelly (Salem Tyson) thing (I know we would have taken Billings, I reckon that's spin).... We had Scully... And that's another great example of being shafted. I know Scully's not great, but we got Hogan at least partly because of that deal, and now after training HIM too, he walks... will we just end up using our serious draft capital to take talented kids and then wait 4-5 years for them to leave to a rich club and smash us every year? That's what's making GC a joke...

Yeah. I wouldn't say I'm emotional. But [censored] off is about right. I'd be more excited if I was able to monitor the draft this year and have a better handle on what we're getting.

[Little Goffy 14,645]

56 minutes ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

Reliably told Jesse has 

A. Formally asked to be traded to Fremantle. 

B. The dockers have agreed in principal to 2 first round picks this year for hogan 

will be either 6 &10 or 9&10 and an exchange of later picks. Some haggling to go on there. 

Steven may looking all but certain to join in exchange for one of those picks. I suspect kk will be involved in that deal.

apologies if this news is already known, I haven’t been able to keep track on this thread.

If the final result from losing Hogan is to gain 6, May and Kolonoscopy, we'll have done almost as well as West Coast did with the Judd trade (3, 20, and Kennedy).

[Nasher 33,617]

49 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

If true, then it's a very disappointing decision from Jesse. I feel as though the club has shown him tremendous support throughout a variety of things and there is a small part of me that hoped he would return that support. 

However, it's hard to get your back up about it when clubs sometimes show little loyalty to players as well. This is the current landscape of football, and while it's a tough pill to swallow, I trust the FD to get the right deal, to get it done quick and to ensure it makes us better in the long run. 

The one solace we can take is that Weideman is starting to really come on and we may be shoring up our degence further with May and possibly KK. If we get two first rounders then we may also hold on to it to add a quality young player to our list as well, or move that on to improve us even further.

At the end of the day it sucks to potentially lose Jesse, but if he does go home then I'm comfortable that we can still come out of it looking great on the other side. 

This reads exactly how I think I should feel - disappointed but circumspect. Jesse has been our symbol of hope and has blossomed in to a fantastic player.

For some reason though I’m just feeling excited by the opportunity. As @ProDeeand others have said, there’s an opportunity for us to use this to actually improve the list further. It also feels like a weight off - the constant speculation over his future has been pretty wearing. 

I hope flog supporters don’t boo or abuse him when he lines up for Freo for the first time. He stuck fat through those tough times despite his incredibly tough personal circumstances, and goes when it hurts us far less. For those who like to wail about loyalty, he’s shown it in spades. He goes now because the club has changed its message from “we can’t live without you” to “you can explore opportunities”. He has waited until the expectations of saving the day have been lifted. He’s still a favourite in my eyes.

[jnrmac 20,189]

17 hours ago, dbj1983 said:

Take it as you will but May was having beers with Gawn (and other Melb players) after the Brownlow and said that he wants in at Melbourne next year. Feeling was that Hogan is gone but wasn’t sure how the trade would be done.

This comes from a reliable source and we are trying to manage how we can maximise on the trade.

Some kind of alternate reality when you get rid of a 23yo KP forward that has proven himself for a 27yo (in Jan 19) overweight full back that doesn't like training and is leaving his club in the lurch as Captain. 

[Redleg 41,480]

I am already over it and to me Jesse is an opposition player apparently a Docker.

All I care about now is what we get for him in the deal.

[jnrmac 20,189]

Just now, Redleg said:

I am already over it and to me Jesse is an opposition player apparently a Docker.

All I care about now is what we get for him in the deal.

I also can't believe we would offer a 1st rounder for May....

[goodwindees 2,537]

1 hour ago, Danelska said:

FFS - they've demonstrated numerous times over numerous years, that they are shrewd operators. You'd almost think supporters assume they don't know how to handle negotiations....

Please tell me one single trade deal we won at the negotiation stage since we got what appeared to be overs for Darren Jolly.  Got done over in both the Tyson & Lever deals so I await evidence of winning negotiations. 

[ManDee 7,222]

36 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

I'll say it again. Look at the rest of the thread. I've been over this too many times. You wanna say other posters have no idea, check your facts first champ.

Lever was uncontracted and within his RFA period when he was traded for two first rounders. Had we waited 12 months, we could have gotten this deal. The price, even while contracted, will be two first rounders... Look around at what's being reported, read what I have, then come back and apologise in a few weeks when the trade period finishes up. These first rounders we're getting will likely fall from 5 to 6 or 7 and from 10 to 11 or 12 AT BEST. We can't get another Hogan-quality KP forward that's ready to go in 2019 at that price unless Lynch has a change of heart and chooses us. Best case scenario is we somehow get a King brother, who takes 5 years to come good if he doens't do another ACL, if he's any good at all... Where are your 4 flags in a row if that happens? Hogan is a KNOWN quantity, KPF, one of the stars of the comp already and he's leaving us. You tell me what the price is that can help us in 2019...

We're in a window now. Hogan leaving, and us not getting a player of his quality back that's in his prime NOW as Hogan is, is a big loss for us. Picks won't come through for a long time yet, and certainly not in 2019, if they do at all.

This isn't devastating... But you don't improve as a club by training talent like Jesse and watching it leave after 4-5 years. This is exactly why clubs like GC never do anything. They've had star after star leave just as they're hitting their prime... You're kidding yourself if you're a demons supporter and assessing this trade as somehow "better" for us... We're getting bent over. Deal with it.

Wtf are you talking about? You have no idea what we have been offered. You can rant as much as you like but this could be the best deal (or worst) in the history of football. The truth is we don't know yet so why lose your mind? Just because you repeat your rants does not make them true. Champ

[deebug 1,754]

1 minute ago, jnrmac said:

I also can't believe we would offer a 1st rounder for May....

Second rounder you would think for May alone, but it maybe both May and KK together?

[Redleg 41,480]

Just now, jnrmac said:

I also can't believe we would offer a 1st rounder for May....

We probably won’t it, will most likely include KK.

If May stays another year and then leaves and say GC finish 16th then GC would get pick 4 as compo. 

We won’t be giving them anything like that and will get another player thrown in most likely.

[jnrmac 20,189]

I love the way how some who have attacked posters lamenting our weak defence and in fact lauded our back six now think we need to get May and Kolodjashnij. Funny.

 

 

 

[Ethan Tremblay 30,970]

11 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I also can't believe we would offer a 1st rounder for May....

It’s the talk of how early the first rounder is that conerns me. At a minimum I’d want their second round pick to come with May.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Ethan Tremblay

[Wiseblood 24,637]

6 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I also can't believe we would offer a 1st rounder for May....

This is nothing more than an assumption, but I'd wager we would look to add KK to that deal as well.  With May still in contract I think the only way we pry him out of GC is with a first rounder anyway.  If we're that keen, and we know what it will do for the side and we're happy with May and his commitment to training etc, then I think it's a fair deal.  Especially if KK is part of it as well.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

12 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

this isn’t the NFL or the NBA where a single franchise player can come in and mean the difference between winning a premiership or not.

I agree with that, I could have explained a bit better. Hogan won't go to Freo and win a flag. No siree. He'll have to wait at least 4-5 years while they build a side around him. I reckon he knows that and has accepted it. And I won't say Hogan is the most important player on our list... I have Oliver, Gawn and Viney there... with maybe Lever and Braysh after Hogan... I think though that to win a flag you need so much to go right. Hogan at demons was enough to make us a serious threat... Demons without Hogan, we drop back to the pack a bit. I'm not saying we can't find quality with what we're getting, but overall it's a sideways move at best. And SO MUCH is being hoped for with Weed and TMac. I think system wise, Hogan's engine and flexibility would scare the crap out of opposition teams and supporters. SO hard to coach against. As you know, I don't buy into this idea that he's been found out... and I worry Weed will be easier to get tape on in the coming few years.

Also, let's say hypothetically Hogan stays for a 4 year deal. Takes him up to 28... he kicks 60 a year for those 4 years, finishes top 3 in the B and F.... What would his trade price be then? 2 first rounders sound about right? Yes...

That's another reason I hate it. We're getting that deal now. And we don't even get the really juicy period of his career to hang our hat on. Hawks lost Buddy and still succeeded I know, but they lost him AFTER he won them premierships.

But sure, I get your point. It's the correct thing to do to look to the future, and the club is only doing what it can. We got Lever cos of go home factor, and we lose a guy cos of go home factor... and somehow in that we lose pick 10 and a superdraft 17... and gain 9 and 10 in a superdraft year... all told that's not too shabby...

But as I say. Hogan at demons is massive. And we're a worse side when he goes. At least that's my take. lol

[SFebes 4,884]

I have May rated in the 12-18 pick bracket as a 27yo FWIW. Hope we don't get stitched up and offer pick 5.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

8 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Wtf are you talking about? You have no idea what we have been offered. You can rant as much as you like but this could be the best deal (or worst) in the history of football. The truth is we don't know yet so why lose your mind? Just because you repeat your rants does not make them true. Champ

Jesus turn on your radio. It's two first rounders. I look forward to your apology. Champ.

[martin 727]

10 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Please tell me one single trade deal we won at the negotiation stage since we got what appeared to be overs for Darren Jolly.  Got done over in both the Tyson & Lever deals so I await evidence of winning negotiations. 

Exactly. Picks 9 & 10 is a fail. Minimum picks 4 & 9. Doubt that we've ever 'won ' a trade deal. Sadly I think we will roll over yet again . Sincerely hope I'm wrong.

[Adam The God 30,421]

2 hours ago, EnterTheDragon said:

I’m nervous that Mahoney and Co are not going to drive a hard bargain. 

If we lose Hogan for May and chump change that will be a seriously disappointing outcome. 

It must be May and either a very good pick or a very good starting 22 player. 

I want May but no way is he of equal value to Hogan, not to mention the fact that we have the whip hand over Fremantle in this exchange. They need the player more than we need to give him.

Like many Demon supporters I will be watching on with keen critical interest as to how shrewdly we negotiate this. We traditionally have not been renowned for coming out on the winning side of trade table deals. A few yes but more often than not we’ve been the ones picking up the dropped soap in the prison shower.

I hope those days are over.

We get the occasional poster every year that is 'worried' that the FD won't drive a hard bargain and will get [censored] over. At what point does it become clear to some people that we are a well oiled machine these days? I suspect never. 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

13 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

I also can't believe we would offer a 1st rounder for May....

Why?

He’s in the best 5 key backmen in the league and the Sun’s captain. 

St.Kilda paid out pick 5 for Jake Carlisle for Chrissakes. You’d pay pick 10 for May and not look back. 

How many pick 10’s have amounted to nothing? Probably 50% of them.

[Gorgoroth 13,023]

If losing Jesse gets us May, KK and a pick, and then leaves enough money to re offer to Gaff then it might work out ok.

Shame to lose him but it is what it is.