Match Preview and Team Selection - Preliminary Final

[What 18,810]

Congrats to Joel Smith, back into the team in a PRELIMINARY FINAL.

Give them hell SOS !

[IWAP 170]

Not thrilled with the out (gutted for Bailey), but i'm very happy we selected Smith for this matchup. Was putting together a pretty nice string of games before he got injured. Go SOS!

[KingDingAling 3,752]

9 minutes ago, Precard said:

Would have been great if Smith’s injury against GC kept him out of the season. Bayley would still be in...

Nah, we want Smith to be fit. He is tracking along nicely, but he isn't anywhere near ready for a WA final. Fritsch is obviously injured. There is no way in hell you drop Fritsch for Smith barring injury, there just isn't. So I hope Bayley is ok and comes up ok for the Grand Final.

[praha 11,226]

Terrible call.

Tyson should be out. Fritsch to the wing. Smith to back.

[beelzebub 23,311]

Hope this doesn't backfire.

Go Dees 

[titan_uranus 24,963]

I understand why Smith is playing but I don't agree with dropping Fritsch before Tyson.

If we win, and unless Smith shows some sort of Rance-esque level of dominance, I wonder whether we'll drop him back for Fritsch to return, given both Richmond and Collingwood have smaller forward lines?

[Deemented Are Go! 3,677]

To change topic to a more pressing matter - anyone know what we’re wearing? 

Disco blue or white shorts? Or both? 

[Deestroy All 14,262]

Horrible change. 

You’ve got a bloke that was a revelation on the wing and damaging up forward. Yet get rid of him and leave Tyson in who is lost. 

[Tarax Club 3,843]

2 hours ago, London Demon said:

Anyone who saw Smith in last week's VFL prelim got any comment? How did he play?

Saved a certain goal in a very tight preliminary final contest with a goal square intercept. Has determination and courage in spades reminiscent of Sean Wight. Go Well young Smithy!

[Older demon 2,736]

Whilst I feel bad for Fritsch I think you will see if you review the replay that last week was not his best. At times he rushed and was panicked and turned the ball over, especially in 2nd quarter. He was luck Gunston hit the post in the third as Fritsch rushed at the loose ball over ran it and allowed Gunston to swoop and miss what was the turning point of the game. At half back who was minding Gunston who almost turned the game and kicked 3.5 and got coaches votes for 2nd BOG. 

I can see the need for the extra tall as Vardy had a big influence up forward in week 1, while Lycett was battling Grundy

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

1 minute ago, Deestroy All said:

Horrible change. 

You’ve got a bloke that was a revelation on the wing and damaging up forward. Yet get rid of him and leave Tyson in who is lost. 

Tysons contest work and ability to realesse when drawing opponents is under rated, that said his outside work is somewhat fairly maligned. Fritsch outside work and marking ability is fairly rated highly, but his contest work has been subpar in the backhalf. I said earlier playing him in the backline, highlights his deficiencies more than his strengths, and whilst playing as a forward flank is clearly probably his best position, he doesn’t give the pressure that Hannan, Neal-Bullen and Spargo give, so realistically he’s competing with Melksham and Petracca and therefore he can’t move there. 

 

Fritsch is unlucky, but I think it makes our team look stronger/more competitive on paper. That doesn’t necessarily mean it to be true, but I see it as the logical move this week. 

[dl4e 5,851]

This selection is like the Watts trade. Understand why they are doing it but am uneasy about it. Hopefully like the Watts trade it will be a win. If we make it through Bayley can play in the GF.

[praha 11,226]

17 minutes ago, Mad_Melbourne said:

Tysons contest work and ability to realesse when drawing opponents is under rated, that said his outside work is somewhat fairly maligned. Fritsch outside work and marking ability is fairly rated highly, but his contest work has been subpar in the backhalf. I said earlier playing him in the backline, highlights his deficiencies more than his strengths, and whilst playing as a forward flank is clearly probably his best position, he doesn’t give the pressure that Hannan, Neal-Bullen and Spargo give, so realistically he’s competing with Melksham and Petracca and therefore he can’t move there. 

 

Fritsch is unlucky, but I think it makes our team look stronger/more competitive on paper. That doesn’t necessarily mean it to be true, but I see it as the logical move this week. 

He hits the scoreboard though and we can't have too many smart footballers. I'd have him ahead of Tyson given our grunt already, and well ahead of Garlett. He's only playing down back to fill for Lever, who plays that loose defender. I'm confident Frost would be playing now even if Lever were in the team.

I think Fritsch will be a better player for his time down back.

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

7 minutes ago, praha said:

He hits the scoreboard though and we can't have too many smart footballers. I'd have him ahead of Tyson given our grunt already, and well ahead of Garlett. He's only playing down back to fill for Lever, who plays that loose defender. I'm confident Frost would be playing now even if Lever were in the team.

I think Fritsch will be a better player for his time down back.

No doubt it was a valuable experience for him, but I think it squeezed him out of the side. Fritsch was realistically competing for a spot in a position that was not suited to him. 

I think Fritsch has had a great season and is stiff to miss out this week. But with our game increasingly becoming a contest based game, especially in finals, the extra pure mid rotation helps, plus Our defensive matchups push him out  

I do agree his assets are most suited to the forward line, which is where I see his best football. 

 

[Sadler 26]

1 hour ago, Precard said:

Would have been great if Smith’s injury against GC kept him out of the season. Bayley would still be in...

You’re an idiot mate. 

[Little Goffy 14,398]

I'm just a spinning wheel of emotion over this.

Hooray for Smith! I really believe in him and he has had so much bad luck!

Oh no! Poor Fritsch! I really believe in him and this is such bad luck!

But I do feel like it is a sensible structural decision.

I wonder if Fritsch will be back in next week?

[Wolfturdo 123]

48 minutes ago, Deestroy All said:

Horrible change. 

You’ve got a bloke that was a revelation on the wing and damaging up forward. Yet get rid of him and leave Tyson in who is lost. 

This is what I think, but people reply and attack when I say it instead of keeping it to themselves. 

[layzie 33,724]

28 minutes ago, dl4e said:

This selection is like the Watts trade. Understand why they are doing it but am uneasy about it. Hopefully like the Watts trade it will be a win. If we make it through Bayley can play in the GF.

Really good point. They’ve never been afraid of a tough decision and usually make the right one.

In some ways Goodwin is a parent to us fans. Not here to be our friend but here to tell us what is good for us ?

[nosoupforme 3,085]

20 hours ago, Cards13 said:

One thing I don’t think our coaches are doing at this point if the season is panicking... we’re on fire. They are making what they believe is a thought out, reasoned approach.

“We don’t think x is playing well, we’ve told him he needs to do this, this and this over the last few weeks, he missed the KPIs on the weekend. Yea but he could be a match winner.. we think he needs to go back and have a go at it in the 2s. Smith has played they way we want, let’s bring him in.”

Sure some to and froing but no second guessing and no panic merchants, like us on here.. 

It's a cutthroat game alright  however lets hope that the FD has made the right choice for this game with J Smith being selected.

i will be praying.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,379]

Feel sorry for Fritsch. He is already a quality player and will be a champion footballer in the future. I can understand Smith's inclusion however given the opposition.

[CBDees 3,167]

31 minutes ago, Wolfturdo said:

This is what I think, but people reply and attack when I say it instead of keeping it to themselves. 

The whole idea of the forum is to express opinions or analyse other people’s if they don’t add up.

Joel Smith was not replacing either a forward or a wingman (Fritch’s strengths), he was selected for the back half (his strength). Further, he was named on the interchange. Nobody is saying that Smith is a better player than Fritsch. It is merely a matter of perceived needs on the day as I see the selection.

[layzie 33,724]

38 minutes ago, Wolfturdo said:

This is what I think, but people reply and attack when I say it instead of keeping it to themselves. 

Yeah but you choose some interesting words to get a point across sometimes..

[binman 42,468]

At the time of writing the odds for this game are eagles 1.80 and dees 2.05. Which is about right.

No question that the eagles deserve to be favorites. They've had a great season, have a good system and a very dangerous forward line, particularly their medium size forwards. And it goes without saying they have a huge home ground advantage. How big an advantage? Well, i reckon the odds would be reversed if this game was at the G.

Leaving all that to one side i really believe we will win this game. And if we clik we could even do a number on them.

The key reasons for my confidence are:

• Momentum: we have it in spades
• Confidence: see above
• Belief: see above
• Settled team: since the west coast game we have had only three players out -  Kent, JKH and the dreadfully unlucky Fritter. Super important from both an injury and team synergy perspective
• From our best possible 22 we only have Lever and hogan not playing (with Kent close)
• They have 3 of their best 22 out in Nik Nat, Gaff and Sheppard (and arguably 2 of their best 3 out) and these outs hurt them more than ours do us as they can't cover them as well, particularly Nik Nat and Gaff
• McEvoy held his own against Max, unsurprising given he is a top shelf ruckman. This was big factor in them leading  clearances and inside 50s at half time. Lycett and Vardy will struggle to come close to containing maxy let alone match him. Gives us a huge advantage in terms of clearances
• On clearances, we are third in the AFL for clearances (WC  13th) and 1st for center clearances (WC 10th)  
• We travel well. I think i am right in saying we have won 6 of our last 7 interstate games, with the one loss being the Port game we should have won
• The ground suits us as it is narrower than the g by some 30 metres and will make it hard for WC to find space, chip it around and escape our suffocating pressure - not to mention get through our press 
• The perfect conditions suit us as quick, clean hands are so critical to our quick transition and ball movement, which are the key factors in our high scoring game style (and conversely a reason why we struggle in the wet)
• As has been noted by many commentators WC win if they get within a -11 differential for contested ball. We average +18. They will have to bring some serious heat to stop us winning the contested ball. Hawks did and kept with us - until we got on top in contested ball
• On that point our contested ball, high pressure style matches up well against their more traditional style of accurate, surgical kicking as it disrupts their kicking accuracy and creates damaging turnovers
• Our style is built for finals and theirs is susceptible to finals pressure (like GWS last week)
• Tackles will play a big role in creating pressure -  we are number 1 in the AFL for tackles. 70.7 tackles a game to WC's 60.6 a game (15th)
• Yes Kennedy in is huge and obviously having Darling play a full match helps (though it is worth noting we already 3 goals up when he was injured i think) but Sheppard is a big loss for them as Hanna, Spargo and Trac are dangerous
• But more significant is our in - the raging bull. I admit i am guilty of underestimating the value Viney would bring to the team in the finals. He has been incredible and is a critical addition given how crucial contested ball will be
• And whilst Weed played in the last game he is almost a different player now such is his form. Certainly a bigger threat
• Yes Kennedy and Darling represent a major threat (though i worry more about Jetta, Rioli and Ryan) but since we played WC we have kept three very good sides in perfect conditions to an average of 58 points. Our all team defensive game is working and our back six have been terrific
• That all team defensive pressure will ensure Kennedy and Darling won't get the silver service they have got in their 11 wins together
• Besides for all their supposed forward line strength we are the number one scoring side, by some margin, and average almost two goals a game more than WC 
• Add to that we are the number 1 side for marks inside 50 with 14.8 per game. WC are 7th with 11.5 - they better worry about our forward line!
•  We have yet to hit our straps and as Moncology noted before the hawks game we still have gears we can go up. If we click on Saturday there is a real chance we will, at some point, kick 4,5,6 goals in quick succession as we have done all year
• If we do that in the first quarter we will take the wind out of the sails of WC and their fans and we will be very hard to beat
• The crowd noise will be pure Fugazi to the dees
• The 2, 600 demons fans - demonland posters among them - will carry the torch for all demon fans around the country
• It's the vibe

Edited September 20, 2018 by binman

[Leoncelli_36 2,264]

Smith can play key back on darling ,pinch hit in the ruck, fast enough to cover small quick forwards and a good intercept mark. If you know the team and how this guy plays you will see the logic. On the other hand, if he craps his pants under pressure,selection committee has egg all over its face. He has shat his dacks before and been exposed, so to bring him in with zero pressure experience is a HUGE gamble. Huge! 

[binman 42,468]

4 minutes ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

Smith can play key back on darling ,pinch hit in the ruck, fast enough to cover small quick forwards and a good intercept mark. If you know the team and how this guy plays you will see the logic. On the other hand, if he craps his pants under pressure,selection committee has egg all over its face. He has shat his dacks before and been exposed, so to bring him in with zero pressure experience is a HUGE gamble. Huge! 

Goody rates him. So do i.

I reckon he will rotate between their medium forwards as as you say he is quick enough and he is also very athletic. 

Omac will get Darling and Frosty Kennedy (with freedom to run off him) and Smith will get across to hep when needed. This frees hibberd up to be much more attacking, which is a worry for WC.