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Match Preview and Team Selection - Elimination Final

Demonland
Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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  On 05/09/2018 at 06:07, Clintosaurus said:

Something like the 2000 Prelim would do.

Or 98 v the Crows

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      On 05/09/2018 at 12:19, Jibroni said:

    Or 98 v the Crows

    That was the last final I ever attended, Friday will be the next 1, still not sure how the crows won that year we smashed them, and would have done so again if we got over north 

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    Pure Stats Form Guide & Predictor

    Team Form Comparison (team score last round adjusted for Ins/)

    Demons:  76.7   Cats:  78.1

    Team Differential:   Cats +1.4

                                                         Pure Stats Predictor:

                                       Pure Stats (no umpire Bias) - The Cats by 3 points

    The above includes the Ins of Viney & Hannan for the Outs of Tyson & Kent (injured).  The Cats will no doubt make a few changes also but i don't have the time to adjust by Friday night so this could tip the results a little also.

    Predictor also unlikely to be as accurate given the 2 week break effect on form.   However, it is a little hard to ignore  having so far predicted 10 of the 12 W/L results with an accuracy factor of 83%

    Last Round Statistical Comparison

    image.png.52f5e7d6e57502e10e5654491a142ccb.png

    image.png.b26ad20a4c26b07f5d8f716320b1b9f3.png

    *Does NOT Include this weeks Ins & Outs.  Cats obviously have a major top end experience advantage.  Our 10 players in the 50 to 99 range will have to perform at their best to offset this.  We did of course play 2 teams at opposite ends of the ladder also which is likely to have skewed both results statistically.

    Top 10 Players Comparison (Last Round)#

    image.png.e52b88e33211d2bfcc2ec18281d4bb49.png

    # Scores do not account for ruckmen's 'Hit Outs to Advantage'

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    • Thanks 1
     
      On 05/09/2018 at 13:00, Rusty Nails said:

    Pure Stats Form Guide & Predictor

    Team Form Comparison (team score last round adjusted for Ins/)

    Demons:  76.7   Cats:  78.1

    Team Differential:   Cats +1.4

                                                         Pure Stats Predictor:

                                       Pure Stats (no umpire Bias) - The Cats by 3 points

    The above includes the Ins of Viney & Hannan for the Outs of Tyson & Kent (injured).  The Cats will no doubt make a few changes also but i don't have the time to adjust by Friday night so this could tip the results a little also.

    Predictor also unlikely to be as accurate given the 2 week break effect on form.   However, it is a little hard to ignore  having so far predicted 10 of the 12 W/L results with an accuracy factor of 83%

    Last Round Statistical Comparison

    image.png.52f5e7d6e57502e10e5654491a142ccb.png

    image.png.b26ad20a4c26b07f5d8f716320b1b9f3.png

    *Does NOT Include this weeks Ins & Outs.  Cats obviously have a major top end experience advantage.  Our 10 players in the 50 to 99 range will have to perform at their best to offset this.  We did of course play 2 teams at opposite ends of the ladder also which is likely to have skewed both results statistically.

    Top 10 Players Comparison (Last Round)#

    image.png.e52b88e33211d2bfcc2ec18281d4bb49.png

    # Scores do not account for ruckmen's 'Hit Outs to Advantage'

    As you say, It also does not account for the two walkovers the cats had, versus us playing 2 top 8 sides.  Looks too close to call....

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      On 05/09/2018 at 21:31, juzzk1d said:

    The anxiety for this game is absolutely killing me. Anyone else in the same boat? 

    For some reason I’ve felt more relaxed the last two weeks than I have all season and this a knockout game. I have no idea what it’s telling me, it could all change when the teams get announced tonight. Maybe the bye has helped in that regard.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 21:31, juzzk1d said:

    The anxiety for this game is absolutely killing me. Anyone else in the same boat? 

    The fact we are playing Geelong is really taking it to another level.  They are so many Dees supporters most hated club. We owe them big time and losing to them in our first final in over a decade would be horrible.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 05:20, Ben E said:

    We owe the Cats. Last two losses down at Kardinia Park (111 and Zach T) reduced my eldest daughter to convulsive fits of despair and snot after the final siren. She used my shoulder and my 1980s hand-knitted scarf (marked with my own tears from 1987) as a hanky each time - it’s still intact and will be worn with pride this Fri night.

    Anyway, what a difference a few weeks make. Here she is running out with the boys for the GWS game last week, with all ahead of her and the team. Great photo full of hope, joy and purpose, from article here: http://m.melbournefc.com.au/news/2018-09-04/finals-experience-no-issue-lewis

    Go Demons!!!

     

    Awesome stuff for her! Look at that smile!

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      On 05/09/2018 at 09:04, bringbackthebiff said:

    From an article last year when the Tiges beat the Cats in the qualifying final “mauling Geelong with an unrelenting brand of pressure that carried them to a 51-point win”. 

    That’s the template on how you beat the Cats.

    And i think that is exactly what will happen. We will do what we did to gws. Smash them physically.

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    • Like 1

    Just one correction for the match review article.

    We did beat the Cats in the return match of 2006 at the G then drew later in the year.

    While I'm happy we're here, I feel some people's confidence is misplaced. I not bracing myself for the worst but neither am I thinking we are a lock. My gut says Geelong by two goals just because of their experience but that is no certainty.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 21:31, juzzk1d said:

    The anxiety for this game is absolutely killing me. Anyone else in the same boat? 

    I thunk zat oi are a widdle bit anshouse as wull. Can nort thunk strayght and fockuss. Well it parse?

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    • Like 1
      On 05/09/2018 at 22:44, Colin B. Flaubert said:

    Just one correction for the match review article.

    We did beat the Cats in the return match of 2006 at the G then drew later in the year.

    While I'm happy we're here, I feel some people's confidence is misplaced. I not bracing myself for the worst but neither am I thinking we are a lock. My gut says Geelong by two goals just because of their experience but that is no certainty.

    Experience means nothing when the red hots and blue start creaming the Catty Puts. Hit 'em hard, fast and relentlessly. Go Dees!

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    Since our loss to the Cats when they kicked 16.4 and 8 straight in the last away at Geelong, we’ve learnt a lesson and improved.

    Leading to away wins against Crows and Eagles, and beating GWS who we destroyed.

    Viney back is a big in, he makes a huge difference to the team in close games.

    Its our time! 

    Demons to pump the pussycats!

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    • Like 2

    It sounds like Tyson will get up for this one so I think there will be two changes.

    Ins: Viney & Hannan

    Out: Kent & JKH

    B:          Jetta               McDonald           Hibberd

    HB:       Salem              Frost                   Lewis

    c :          Brayshaw       Viney                  Harmes

    HF:        Petracca          Weideman        Melksham 

    F:           Spargo             McDonald         Neal-Bullen

    R:         Gawn                Oliver                 Jones

    Int:      Tyson         Hannan          Fritsch      VandenBerg

    Emg:  Pedersen      Kennedy-Harris      Smith      Bugg

    Edited by Is Dom Is Good

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      On 05/09/2018 at 22:58, Is Dom Is Good said:

    It sounds like Tyson will get up for this one so I think there will be two changes.

    Ins: Viney & Hannan

    Out: Kent & JKH

    B:          Jetta               McDonald           Hibberd

    HB:       Salem              Frost                   Lewis

    c :          Brayshaw       Viney                  Harmes

    HF:        Petracca          Weideman        Melksham 

    F:           Spargo             McDonald         Neal-Bullen

    R:         Gawn                Oliver                 Jones

    Int:      Tyson         Hannan          Fritsch      VandenBerg

    Emg:  Pedersen      Kennedy-Harris      Smith      Bugg

    No better person to deliver potential Tyson news!!

    That's a fine looking team, totally agree. Spargo over JKH, and Hannan for extra goalpower.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 21:51, Petraccattack said:

    The fact we are playing Geelong is really taking it to another level.  They are so many Dees supporters most hated club. We owe them big time and losing to them in our first final in over a decade would be horrible.

    Totally agree. We gifted them 2 matches this year, so we'll beat them when it counts (but, yeah - losing to them again would be heart wrenching).

    We'll come out breathing fire. Much like the start of the West Coast game. That first 15-minute patch was incredible.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 21:44, buck_nekkid said:

    As you say, It also does not account for the two walkovers the cats had, versus us playing 2 top 8 sides.  Looks too close to call....

    Looks that way Buck.  Hopefully in our favour this time

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    I'm interested to know why we had our main training session on Tuesday, yet Geelong had their main session on Wednesday.  Will this make any difference?  Would Geelong normally have their session on the Tuesday too but have changed it up given their poor performance after a week off?

    If it was a normal Friday night game (ie without a bye the week before), I would've expected that we'd have our main training session on the Wednesday.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 22:33, binman said:

    And i think that is exactly what will happen. We will do what we did to gws. Smash them physically.

    Cats are the ultimate front runners, don't like a tough battle, rely on momentum surges where they can all get their tails up.

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      On 05/09/2018 at 12:19, Jibroni said:

    Or 98 v the Crows

    I remember that final very well - we never looked like losing.

    Not sure why, but a mate and I headed over the footbridge to the Crows buses and held up some "Go Demons" signs as we walked around each one.  Not feeling content, we decided to drive through Camp Crow at Kryal Castle, windows down, singing "It's a Grand Old Flag".  Clearly we were very gracious in victory.

    We decided against visiting the buses or Camp Crow three weeks after the above...

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    • Shocked 1

    Experience isn't everything but I think it will count for something. Finals is a different ball game after all. 

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    •  
      On 06/09/2018 at 01:28, S_T said:

    I like the sound of this prediction by Bob Murphy....

    https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/09/06/murphy-my-gut-feeling-melbourne-will-absolutely-smash-geelong/

    Same, and I totally agree!

    The team has been building to this moment, and I think the message will be sent from the very first second. The cats won't know what hit them, but they'll have plenty of time to think about it on the plane home!

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      On 06/09/2018 at 00:13, The Chazz said:

    I'm interested to know why we had our main training session on Tuesday, yet Geelong had their main session on Wednesday.  Will this make any difference?  Would Geelong normally have their session on the Tuesday too but have changed it up given their poor performance after a week off?

    If it was a normal Friday night game (ie without a bye the week before), I would've expected that we'd have our main training session on the Wednesday.

    I can recall that being mentioned on one of the Fox Footy programs last night Chazz.

    They have altered their schedule in an attempt to avoid the post-bye slump record they have which is 2W / 9L or something like that.

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