1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Why are we $1.55 favorites to beat the hottest team in the league in GWS? 

they are ravaged by injury and may have 3rd spot stitched up by then.

There are four possibilities: W-W, W-L, L-W and L-L.

I can see an argument for all four:

1. Backs to the wall, pressure on us all week, we galvanise in a road trip (we've been doing that all year) and beat a WC side that actually isn't in great form. With finals locked in, the mental pressure is released and the shackles fall off, seeing us romp home against GWS
2. See above re: West Coast, but we get ahead of ourselves knowing we've made finals and flop
3. We get done by West Coast this week. However, by the time we get to our Round 23 game Port has lost to Collingwood and Essendon and North lost to Adelaide, which means we're locked in to the top 8 whether or not we beat GWS. The pressure therefore falls away and we romp home against GWS.
4. We get done by West Coast, Port wins a game and/or North beats Adelaide, meaning we know that we have to beat GWS to qualify. We lose, obviously.

6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Assuming we have a close loss and a close win, Geelong would need to win both of their games by a combined 200 points to catch us on percentage.

Given they play Freo who have half of their side including Fyfe and Gold Coast, it's quite achievable.

The probability of Geelong winning consecutive games by 100 points, us not gaining percentage despite a win (we don't win close games, we lose closes games or we win by a bunch), and Port beating Collingwood and Essendon is very low, IMO. I don't see that scenario occurring.

I think the scenario of us making it on 12 wins is more likely than the scenario of us missing on 13 wins.

2 hours ago, praha said:

they are ravaged by injury and may have 3rd spot stitched up by then.

I reckon they'll be itching to test themselves on the MCG, where they haven't played since Round 2, before the finals start.

15 hours ago, praha said:

they are ravaged by injury and may have 3rd spot stitched up by then.

There could be a scenario in play whereby if Hawthorn lose to Sydney in round 23, the top 4 of the ladder could look like this just prior to the Melb V GWS game.

Richmond    18-4

WCE             16-6

Collingwood  15-7

GWS               14-6-1 

Seeing that GWS would already have top 4 stitched up and can't get into top 2, that might take a bit of fizz off their desire to win the game. They may even prefer to come down to Melbourne in week 1 of finals than travel all the way to WA?? They may even rest a couple of players or not rush back Toby Greene??

Clutching at straws I know, but every 1 per center helps.

 

    

Richmond have now lost Lambert. I dont think it's long term though but he's an important player.

Everyone is dropping like flies around us, we wont get a greater opportunity than now. Time to stand up and stop the spin.

42 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

Richmond have now lost Lambert. I dont think it's long term though but he's an important player.

Everyone is dropping like flies around us, we wont get a greater opportunity than now. Time to stand up and stop the spin.

Richmond are so lucky they even time their key injuries to perfection.

They finally get an injury one of their stars, but it turns out he'll only miss a couple of dead rubbers and the bye week.

21 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

that's paying $22 at Sportsbet (including the MFC losses)

$5.63 without the MFC games

Im on!!!

If we lose next 2 and favourites win:

Since finals are out of the question, I say we just try to tank and get draft picks.

48 minutes ago, worldwideweb_demon said:

Since finals are out of the question, I say we just try to tank and get draft picks.

they go to Adelaide for lever anyway...

1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

If we lose next 2 and favourites win:

Win one of them and get a home final in week 1 and we can dare to dream.

If we lose both....            I don't even want to think about that.

1 minute ago, Petraccattack said:

Win one of them and get a home final in week 1 and we can dare to dream.

If we lose both....            I don't even want to think about that.

Agree trac, unfortunately we've put ourselves in this situation again, you can just feel it'll come down to R23 again and we'll be a laughing stock again. However, I reckon we'll knock off the Eagles.

We've definitely improved on last year even if/when we miss finals because this year we have 3 games to fail in wheras last year it was only the last game against Collingwood.

31 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Win one of them and get a home final in week 1 and we can dare to dream.

If we lose both....            I don't even want to think about that.

What? At the MCG? No thanks..

Just now, jnrmac said:

What? At the MCG? No thanks..

 

LOL good point.

We would be a better chance in an away final.

1 hour ago, Rusty Nails said:

Just go with T-Mac and a medium/small forward line.

As unfortunate as Hulk's injury is, sometimes things happen for a reason.

The impending return of Melksham and and an available Kent kicking a few goals on the weekend might be just the tonic we need to get over the Eagles & the Greater Western Circus and secure a finals berth.

CONS

9 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

There could be a scenario in play whereby if Hawthorn lose to Sydney in round 23, the top 4 of the ladder could look like this just prior to the Melb V GWS game.

Richmond    18-4

WCE             16-6

Collingwood  15-7

GWS               14-6-1 

Seeing that GWS would already have top 4 stitched up and can't get into top 2, that might take a bit of fizz off their desire to win the game. They may even prefer to come down to Melbourne in week 1 of finals than travel all the way to WA?? They may even rest a couple of players or not rush back Toby Greene??

Clutching at straws I know, but every 1 per center helps.

  

It's a fascinating conundrum for them. If we beat WCE, then a win over GWS would put us in 5th. 4th if Collingwood and Hawthorn lose 1 of their matches. Port or Freo, Stk or Sydney. If super lucky, then GWS may even be locked in 3rd pre-game.

 

There is hope afterall. This week is a massive game and it's quite funny now that we're away from the G, that there is a faint hope. I feel like a junkie wanting one more hit..

 

 

Edited August 14, 20186 yr by johndemonic

On 8/13/2018 at 7:28 AM, beelzebub said:

We haven't beaten anyone of significance really all season.

Might I ask then why do some now suppose we'll beat either or both teams currently 2nd and 3rd ? 

I'm not being defeatist to simply abide by realistic appraisal. 

Finals now looming as a bridge too far. I saw very little from my seat yesterday to counter this view.

Dream on

I hear you B.B. and totally agree, but the wheel has to turn in our favour at some point. I’m not confident but hopefull, so until it’s confirmed, for me we’re still alive.

F%#k it... All those crying poor us with the Hogan news on top of Lever & Viney well Collingwood & GWS have managed a top 4 spot with a worse injury list then us. Port lost Dixon for the season on the weekend... Lets just get on with it, I'm pretty confident we can knock off west coast this week regardless, we get Hibberd & Melksham back. 

Everyone's expecting us to fall in a hole these next 2 weeks so what have we got to lose, everyones going here Melbourne goes again.... We'll either prove them wrong or right, we either make finals or we don't. One things for certain we'll all be back again next year regardless so let's just bring on the next 2 weeks, enjoy it. What will be will be.

2 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I hear you B.B. and totally agree, but the wheel has to turn in our favour at some point. I’m not confident but hopefull, so until it’s confirmed, for me we’re still alive.

Does it... wheel have to turn ? 

No rule says it has to

3 hours ago, MSFebey said:

If we lose next 2 and favourites win:

No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

19 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

There's a part of me that would prefer it be down to us having to win one of these two games. As much as I want us to play finals I'm not sure I want us in there limping in with no wins against anyone of note.

That said I really desperately want us in the finals.

21 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

Desperate or not, there is no way in hell I'm cheering for the Pies. We either beat Eagles or I rather not make up the 8.

If Melbourne can't win, the only small satisfaction is seeing Collingwood lose.

31 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

No way does Port win either of their next 2, Pies and Bombers. Champion data also forecasts this.

Melb , even losing next 2, end up 8th on %.

And this will be clear on the Friday night of Rd 23 when Bombers play Port. So if Port DOES win, then at least its still up to club to beat GWS. 

If North (vs Adel/StK), Geel (vs Feo/GCS) or Ess (vs Rich/PA) win both games they will have 13 wins.  If we lose both we drop out of the 8 and stranded on 12 wins.  Same for Port.  In fact both Demons and Port could drop out of the 8 and replaced (most likely) by the Scott bros.  If Port win one and Geel/North win two we are out.

So, on my reckoning we must win a game to ensure we make it.  Hopefully, this week otherwise it will be a truly nail biting rnd 23, again.

It would cut me to the core to drop out of the 8 to make way for a sooky Scott coached team (or heaven forbid TWSNBN). 

Edited August 14, 20186 yr by Lucifer's Hero

I have us losing next two and scraping in as long as Adelaide beat North, Bombers beat Port, and rest of results go as I (?) would expect.

 

Then I dream...