Jump to content


Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
On 8/7/2018 at 8:10 PM, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

There's a little bit of getting ahead of yourselves here people...

We need to win 2 to be guaranteed a finals an none of them are easy (Gellong beating Hawthorn will hurt our chances)

As Goody said: let's just focus on the next challenge, the ladder will take care of itsel

Edited by bandicoot

Posted
16 hours ago, whelan45 said:

I would say it is more likely than not that you will need 14 wins to play finals. Key outcomes to require this:

Geelong to beat Hawks - Highly likely on current form

North to beat Adelaide away - probably most iffy result, but big chance Adelaide season already over when they play

Port to win one of WC at home or Pies at G - Big chance given Gaff impact and Pies massive injuy list

Hawks to beat Swans round 23 - if Sydney have nothing to play for likely, if they do, they probably beat us this week, which is not good!

Amazing we could possibly be top 4 AFTER this round and still miss!

Scary scenario. I would be gutted to miss out on 13 wins

Posted
15 hours ago, Fatman Blues said:

Apologies if this has been written elsewhere

Only two teams haven't beaten a side in the top eight (as at the end of Round 20) - Carlton and Melbourne.

Bizarre fact - we have yet to play Swans, Eagles and Giants.

Our last three games - Swans, Eagles and Giants

Weird..................

That’s why this competition is so uneven if not unfair 

Posted (edited)

Make sure you're all using the faster ladder predictor. Can do each run within a minute or two.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

An intersting function at the top of the main page screen is How many % people are tipping each team.

https://squiggle.com.au

73% have us beating Sydney, 55% have West Coast beating us and we're currently 63% beating GWS

Edited by johndemonic
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

I’m not sure if that has been posted yet, but this season is reminding me a little of the 1998 season at its end. We beat Sydney at the G on a Monday night in Rnd 21 to secure a spot in the finals and then we defeated Richmond in rnd 22 to secure a top 4. Richmond needed to win to make finals but having lost to us, instead finished 9th (which could be like for GWS although I suspect they will still make it)

 

Edited by At the break of Gawn
  • Like 1

Posted
28 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I’m not sure if that has been posted yet, but this season is reminding me a little of the 1998 season at its end. We beat Sydney at the G on a Monday night in Rnd 21 to secure a spot in the finals and then we defeated Richmond in rnd 22 to secure a top 4. Richmond needed to win to make finals but having lost to us, instead finished 9th (which could be like for GWS although I suspect they will still make it)

 

ahh memories that Richmond game is the Farmer sitting on that dudes head in the first couple of minutes game isn't it? one of my favourites as a kid

Posted
1 hour ago, johndemonic said:

An intersting function at the top of the main page screen is How many % people are tipping each team.

https://squiggle.com.au

73% have us beating Sydney, 55% have West Coast beating us and we're currently 63% beating GWS

For what it's worth, that's not actually what the numbers mean - it's nothing to do with the number of people tipping each team.

The percentage figures indicate the probability of a win, based on an aggregate of a bunch of models Squiggle collates. (The red line is the aggregate; the black lines indicate individual models).

Thus, the 73% means that the model(s) estimate a 73% probability of us defeating Sydney. In other words, if we played 100 times, the likelihood is that we'd win 73 of them.

  • Like 2
Posted
1 hour ago, Rogue said:

For what it's worth, that's not actually what the numbers mean - it's nothing to do with the number of people tipping each team.

The percentage figures indicate the probability of a win, based on an aggregate of a bunch of models Squiggle collates. (The red line is the aggregate; the black lines indicate individual models).

Thus, the 73% means that the model(s) estimate a 73% probability of us defeating Sydney. In other words, if we played 100 times, the likelihood is that we'd win 73 of them.

Interesting that all the models have us beating them, and most by decent margins. Thanks for the clarification.

  • Like 1

Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Smokey said:

We will finish top 4 this year. The boys are ready. 

I like that we have three tough assignments on the run home.  It should keep the players on their toes with no complacency unlike the Round 23 debacle last season.

Edited by Petraccattack
  • Like 3
Posted
8 hours ago, Hogan2014 said:

That’s why this competition is so uneven if not unfair 

It’s unfair that Adelaide had to play us twice! They could be sitting in 3rd if that hadn’t happened!

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

I like that we have three tough assignments on the run home.  It should keep the players on their toes with no complacency unlike the Round 23 debacle last season.

Agreed. Rather the boys be under pressure for the weeks leading in rather than walking through easy games and then trying to get ready for real games in September. 

Posted
On 8/7/2018 at 11:07 AM, MSFebey said:

Field of play dimensions is 165m along the east-west axis and 130m on the north-south axis. This is slightly shorter than Domain Stadium (Subiaco Oval) but aligned with the MCG, which is 160m x 141m.

The length is somewhat irrelevant, its the width that causes teams more difficulty in defending with a press.

  • Like 1

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, johndemonic said:

Make sure you're all using the faster ladder predictor. Can do each run within a minute or two.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

 

Spot on.  The afl.com ladder predictor is terrible functionality wise.

Squiggle predictor is much easier to use, but only goes up to 65 points and you cant predict a draw.

Edited by Petraccattack
Posted

What's with the pages and pages of ladder predictions...

Never done the ladder predictor ever before but I've got us finishing top after Tigers are upset by Essendon then rest their star players in the last round. Eagles to lose to Port also.

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

FWIW Squiggle Autotip has us finishing 2nd..

 

 

It runs simulations and therefore is different every time. I’ve run it a bunch of times and had us finishing anywhere from 2nd through to 10th.

Edited by Lord Travis
  • Like 2

Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

It runs simulations and therefore is different every time. I’ve run it a bunch of times and had us finishing anywhere from 2nd through to 10th.

If you look at this page:

https://live.squiggle.com.au/#tower

You need to click on TOWER in the top menu bar

It shows the probability of finishing position based on running (10,000?) simulations

Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none

Edited by Fifty-5
Posted

A lot will depend on our injuries. We can ill afford to lose anymore of our key players and with Gawn in doubt now, our chances have just taken a dive. 

Posted

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points.

So if Hawthorn beat Geelong and we only win 13 games, the possible ladder could look like this:

RICH 18-4

WCE 16-6

GWS 15-6-1

COLL 15-7

HAWKS 14-8

PORT   14-8

NORTH 14-8

GEEL 13-9

MELB 13-9

 

Posted

If Geelong beat Hawks I have the Dees missing if we only beat Sydney.  Cats, Roos, Hawks, Pies on 14 wins

If Hawks win I have us 8th edging out the Cats on % (which would be so sweet) by 4% - Cats win last 2 by 64pts. if they win 100pts each we would swap places

In summary = unless there are upsets, WE REALLY NEED 2 WINS to be safe

Posted

We will win 14 games. And that could be lose to sydney but beat both eagles and giants.

Posted (edited)

I think Adelaide can pick off North at AO pretty comfortably, leaving North on 13 wins and out of the top 8

Edited by j mac

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    TRAINING: Friday 22nd November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers were out in force on a scorching morning out at Gosch's Paddock for the final session before the whole squad reunites for the Preseason Training Camp. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS It’s going to be a scorcher today but I’m in the shade at Gosch’s Paddock ready to bring you some observations from the final session before the Preseason Training Camp next week.  Salem, Fritsch & Campbell are already on the track. Still no number on Campbell’s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports 2

    UP IN LIGHTS by Whispering Jack

    Those who watched the 2024 Marsh AFL National Championships closely this year would not be particularly surprised that Melbourne selected Victoria Country pair Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay on the first night of the AFL National Draft. The two left-footed midfielders are as different as chalk and cheese but they had similar impacts in their Coates Talent League teams and in the National Championships in 2024. Their interstate side was edged out at the very end of the tournament for tea

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Special Features

    TRAINING: Wednesday 20th November 2024

    It’s a beautiful cool morning down at Gosch’s Paddock and I’ve arrived early to bring you my observations from today’s session. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Reigning Keith Bluey Truscott champion Jack Viney is the first one out on the track.  Jack’s wearing the red version of the new training guernsey which is the only version available for sale at the Demon Shop. TRAINING: Viney, Clarry, Lever, TMac, Rivers, Petty, McVee, Bowey, JVR, Hore, Tom Campbell (in tr

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    TRAINING: Monday 18th November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers ventured down to Gosch's Paddock for the final week of training for the 1st to 4th Years until they are joined by the rest of the senior squad for Preseason Training Camp in Mansfield next week. WAYNE RUSSELL'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS No Ollie, Chin, Riv today, but Rick & Spargs turned up and McDonald was there in casual attire. Seston, and Howes did a lot of boundary running, and Tom Campbell continued his work with individual trainer in non-MFC

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    2024 Player Reviews: #11 Max Gawn

    Champion ruckman and brilliant leader, Max Gawn earned his seventh All-Australian team blazer and constantly held the team up on his shoulders in what was truly a difficult season for the Demons. Date of Birth: 30 December 1991 Height: 209cm Games MFC 2024: 21 Career Total: 224 Goals MFC 2024: 11 Career Total: 109 Brownlow Medal Votes: 13 Melbourne Football Club: 2nd Best & Fairest: 405 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 12

    2024 Player Reviews: #36 Kysaiah Pickett

    The Demons’ aggressive small forward who kicks goals and defends the Demons’ ball in the forward arc. When he’s on song, he’s unstoppable but he did blot his copybook with a three week suspension in the final round. Date of Birth: 2 June 2001 Height: 171cm Games MFC 2024: 21 Career Total: 106 Goals MFC 2024: 36 Career Total: 161 Brownlow Medal Votes: 3 Melbourne Football Club: 4th Best & Fairest: 369 votes

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 5

    TRAINING: Friday 15th November 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers took advantage of the beautiful sunshine to head down to Gosch's Paddock and witness the return of Clayton Oliver to club for his first session in the lead up to the 2025 season. DEMONLAND'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS Clarry in the house!! Training: JVR, McVee, Windsor, Tholstrup, Woey, Brown, Petty, Adams, Chandler, Turner, Bowey, Seston, Kentfield, Laurie, Sparrow, Viney, Rivers, Jefferson, Hore, Howes, Verrall, AMW, Clarry Tom Campbell is here

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports

    2024 Player Reviews: #7 Jack Viney

    The tough on baller won his second Keith 'Bluey' Truscott Trophy in a narrow battle with skipper Max Gawn and Alex Neal-Bullen and battled on manfully in the face of a number of injury niggles. Date of Birth: 13 April 1994 Height: 178cm Games MFC 2024: 23 Career Total: 219 Goals MFC 2024: 10 Career Total: 66 Brownlow Medal Votes: 8

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Melbourne Demons 3

    TRAINING: Wednesday 13th November 2024

    A couple of Demonland Trackwatchers braved the rain and headed down to Gosch's paddock to bring you their observations from the second day of Preseason training for the 1st to 4th Year players. DITCHA'S PRESEASON TRAINING OBSERVATIONS I attended some of the training today. Richo spoke to me and said not to believe what is in the media, as we will good this year. Jefferson and Kentfield looked big and strong.  Petty was doing all the training. Adams looked like he was in rehab.  KE

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Training Reports
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...