11 Down, 11 To Go

[Lucifers Hero 40,716]

Thought it might be interesting to look at the run home for the teams in finals contention: 

 

General Thoughts:

• Top 5 teams have won enough games and have the % to be there in Sept. 
• Crows and GWS will be much stronger as injured players return
• Hawks have a dream run home.  
• Lots and lots of 8 point games.
• Freo has already put the cue in the rack (declared they are playing youth) and it won't be long before others follow.  Gives the above teams greater opportunity to boost percentages especially North, Hawks.
• *Port have played one less game

Chances:

• No doubt about Eagles.  Finish: 1
• Little doubt about Richmond as have 8 games in Vic, 6 of which are at the G.  Finish: 2.
• All of Swans games are either in NSW or Vic so easy travel schedule.  Finish: 3 - 5
• Geelong have a friendly travel schedule with only two games outside Vic (SA and NSW).  Finish: 3 - 5
• Magpies have some work to do especially if they don't play games out like yesterday.  Finish: 7 to 11
• Power have a dream run home.  Should Finish 5 - 8 but very inconsistent so could be 9 - 11.
• The Roos have a breeze fixture and friendly travel schedule with three games outside Vic (Tas, SA and NSW).  Finish: 5 - 8
• Hawks will not waste their dream run home and will most likely be in finals.  Finish: 6 - 8
• Crows and Giants will be much better when injured players return.  Finish: 6 - 11.

Which brings me to the Mighty Demons:

• The most challenging travel schedule:  Adelaide, Darwin, Perth..
• 5 of last 6 games are against top eight contenders: Cats, Crows, Swans, Eagles and GWS. 
• We meet Crows and GWS when their key injured players are back.
• Barring disasters we have done enough to be there in Sept. 
• Finish: 3 - 6.

We seem to have the toughest run home.  So, Huge, Huge game vs Pies this week.  Win and we have 9 wins - 2 wins and good % ahead of next weeks 6th, 7th, 8th and looking good for top 4 (with a double chance and at least one Home final at the G).  Lose and we will be in the pack of 4/5 teams on 8 wins.

I will take any win against the Pies this week, even by a point.  In part to put some distance between us and other teams and in part because of rnd 23, 2017.  Hope the players remember that pain.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[What 18,810]

No surprise we have the hardest run home.  We never have luck with injuries or the draw.

Those last 6 games are ridiculous -  especially if GWS are up and running by then.

Richmonds last 3 games - Essendon, Gold Coast and the Bulldogs.

FMD,. I thought the flag winner was meant to have a hard draw?

Edited June 4, 2018 by Petraccattack

[Demon Spofforth 289]

Nice analysis.

I did a ladder predictor last week and conservatively had us going 7-5 over the last 12 weeks due to the travel and strength of opponents over the run home. We're flying at the moment but there will be an inevitable fall off due to injuries or fatigue and the fact we are still quite young compared to the rest of the league.

That would mean us finishing 14-8 and in the 4-6th range which I would still be very happy with as a launch pad into the finals. 

[What 18,810]

Wow, round 23 we play GWS while all the other finals competitors play the bottom teams.

Absurd.

[leucopogon 1,519]

No reason why we can't win the next 6 games in a row. I'm starting to believe we're in the mix for top two as long as hogan, hibbo, tmac, omac, gawn and Oliver remain injury free.

[bobby1554 1,275]

Ladder predictors don't factor in the upsets, which will happen. Any team thinking they have a win in the bag is heading for a loss. Yes, we do have a hard run home, but I think we have shown enough over the past 6 weeks to know we can match it with anyone. We keep bringing the same intensity and skills to each game, then we are going to win most. A week at a time!

[Demon3 2,541]

its a crazy run home, but all we have to do is win the games we should from here on, we don't have to be the best team in H&A.. just the best team in September.

Collingwood - Win / Port (Away) - Loss/ Saints - Win / Freo  - Win / Dogs - Win / Cats (away) - Loss / Crows - (Away) Loss / Suns - Win / Swans - Loss /  Eagles (away) - Loss / Giants  - Win

 

I say we beat Giants in R23..  have learnt a lot from last year.

Gives us 13 wins - That's why i dont think we make Top 4. 

Edited June 4, 2018 by Demon3

[hemingway 7,633]

9 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Thought it might be interesting to look at the run home for the teams in finals contention: 

General Thoughts:

• Top 5 teams have won enough games and have the % to be there in Sept. 
• Crows and GWS will be much stronger as injured players return
• Hawks have a dream run home.  
• Lots and lots of 8 point games.
• Freo has already put the cue in the rack (declared they are playing youth) and it won't be long before others follow.  Gives the above teams greater opportunity to boost percentages especially North, Hawks,

Chances:

• No doubt about Eagles.  Finish: 1
• Little doubt about Richmond as have 8 games in Vic, 6 of which are at the G.  Finish: 2.
• All of Swans games are either in NSW or Vic so easy travel schedule.  Finish: 3 - 5
• Geelong have a friendly travel schedule with only two games outside Vic (SA and NSW).  Finish: 3 - 5
• Magpies have some work to do especially if they don't play games out like yesterday.  Finish: 7 to 11
• Power have a dream run home.  Should Finish 5 - 8 but very inconsistent so could be 9 - 11.
• The Roos have a breeze fixture and friendly travel schedule with three games outside Vic (Tas, SA and NSW).  Finish: 5 - 8
• Hawks will not waste their dream run home and will most likely be in finals.  Finish: 6 - 8
• Crows and Giants will be much better when injured players return.  Finish: 6 - 11.

Which brings me to the Mighty Demons:

• The most challenging travel schedule:  Adelaide, Darwin, Perth..
• 5 of last 6 games are against top eight contenders: Cats, Crows, Swans, Eagles and GWS. 
• We meet Crows and GWS when their key injured players are back.
• Barring disasters we have done enough to be there in Sept.  Finish: 3 - 6.

We seem to have the toughest run home.  So, Huge, Huge game vs Pies this week.  Win and we have 9 wins - 2 wins and good % ahead of next weeks 6th, 7th, 8th and looking good for top 4 (with a double chance and at least one Home final at the G).  Lose and we will be in the pack of 4/5 teams on 8 wins.

I will take any win against the Pies this week, even by a point.  In part to put some distance between us and other teams and in part because of rnd 23, 2017.  Hope the players remember that pain.

Great analysis and summary Lucifer. Always value added

I have never been more excited by our footy team.

Watching the Pies last night suggest we are really going to have go up a notch to knock them off. They have a terrific ruckman, sound defence, impressive mid-field, and, like us, multiple options up forward. They are a really mobile and well balanced side with a mixture of talented youth and experience. And they appear to have hit form for the QB match. 

However, beyond QB our depth is going to be tested.  We will need our fringe players to step up and become more than fill-in players. They need to take the opportunity and become at minimum, very good players. 

We need to hope that our key players are not afflicted by serious injury. Also, my concern is that given the intensity of each week, we are going to have more tired and sore boys as the season progresses. They were looking a pretty tired bunch on Saturday, which made their win and the way they won even more impressive. 

The challenge is to try and get the balance right between winning games but having a fresh and close to full list come finals. 

[Jibroni 5,056]

To early to use the predictor as there is still a long way to go.  Be interesting how West Coke perform if Darling is out for while.

15 wins is definitely achievable.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Great summation, LH.

I won't say we've made the finals, or are guaranteed a spot, until we actually have got a spot that we can't lose, but we're in a great spot to do so.

If we can continue to win games going in to the final month then I don't think those final games will be as big of a deal, especially if we continue to be in good form.

It also doesn't factor in the injuries teams may have at this point.  Yes, some will get players back, but there is no guarantee that by that stage they haven't lost others either.

At the end of the day we just need to keep winning games.  Outside of Jake Lever we have a fit list that is in very good form.  Roll the Pies and win a few more early after the bye and everything will fall into place.

[GCDee 3,202]

I think the launch pad for where we end up in the finals comes from the next two weeks. If we can beat Collingwood and Port we will hold our spot in the 4 clear by at least a game (possibly 2 and %)

We still have games against Freo, WB, St Kilda and the Suns. Which if we want to make top 4 we should be putting these teams away. 

That would have us on 14 wins with a remainder of games being Adelaide (a) Geelong (a) Sydney (h) eagles (a) and giants (h). 

Minimum of 15 wins required to be top 4 so we would only need to win 1 of our "tough" games to be a chance assuming we can take care of business to the lower teams. 

I think it would be better to have that tougher run home coming into finals. Especially if we can win 3 or 4 of those games our boys would up and about come September and ready to go. 

This is by far the most exciting back end to a season we have had for some time! 

[Lucifers Hero 40,716]

1 minute ago, Jibroni said:

To early to use the predictor as there is still a long way to go.  Be interesting how West Coke perform if Darling is out for while.

15 wins is definitely achievable.

What/where is a 'predictor'?

To get the 'finals' ladder spot, I used my interpretation (maybe be flawed) of how teams have been performing and each one's upcoming challenges.

Agree with other posters that there will be upsets and that it is a week by week thing but I think our team has the steely resolve to get us well within contention but agree it is hard to predict where we will end up.

[Lucifers Hero 40,716]

5 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Great summation, LH.

I won't say we've made the finals, or are guaranteed a spot, until we actually have got a spot that we can't lose, but we're in a great spot to do so.

If we can continue to win games going in to the final month then I don't think those final games will be as big of a deal, especially if we continue to be in good form.

It also doesn't factor in the injuries teams may have at this point.  Yes, some will get players back, but there is no guarantee that by that stage they haven't lost others either.

At the end of the day we just need to keep winning games.  Outside of Jake Lever we have a fit list that is in very good form.  Roll the Pies and win a few more early after the bye and everything will fall into place.

Obviously!  Injuries come and go and there are only so many issues that could be factored in to an analysis.  Also, I can only work with what is known or reasonably predictable.  Beyond that, anybody's guess.

If we don't make finals, I'm leaving town and ban myself from Demonland - there will be a bunch of 'Is Goodwin the Right Guy' type threads and it will be too much to bear.

[Drunkn167 5,093]

Half way through the season already? Damn its going too quick.

[Lucifers Hero 40,716]

30 minutes ago, hemingway said:

Great analysis and summary Lucifer. Always value added

I have never been more excited by our footy team.

...

The challenge is to try and get the balance right between winning games but having a fresh and close to full list come finals. 

Thank you -  a quiet Monday morning happening here.

Also very excited.  And agree with your analysis of the Pies.

If we win most of our next five games (Coll, Port, Saints, WB, Freo) the club can start managing players.  I'm thinking resting/rotating newbies (eg Spargo, Fritsch), oldies ( eg Vince, Lewis) and anyone carrying injuries with those playing well at Casey - especially for the long haul games: Perth and Darwin.  It may cost us a spot on the ladder but sets us up for Sept.

So I think we can get to round 23 reasonably fresh (barring the unforeseen).  With a bye after round 23 gives us a chance to recharge the batteries.

I'm also quietly optimistic.

Edited June 4, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[poita 3,944]

Collingwood, Sydney & GWS are the key games. We may have to win two or more of those to challenge for top 4 in a season in which the bottom five clubs are really poor. 

If we pinch one of the Adelaide, Port, West Coast and Geelong road games we will be doing well. Our percentage is great at the moment, but it can change quickly with one bad game.

You would hope we would win (and win well) against Fremantle, St Kilda, Bulldogs and Gold Coast.

We need five more wins to guarantee a finals spot, and that should be straight forward if we can keep our best players around. Hopefully the team can keep pushing beyond that and lock in a home elimination final at the very least.

 

[hemingway 7,633]

16 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Thank you -  a quiet Monday morning happening here.

Also very excited.  And agree with your analysis of the Pies.

If we win most of our next five games (Coll, Port, Saints, WB, Freo) the club can start managing players.  I'm thinking resting/rotating newbies (eg Spargo, Fritsch), oldies ( eg Vince, Lewis) and anyone carrying injuries with those playing well at Casey - especially for the long haul games: Perth and Darwin.  It may cost us a spot on the ladder but sets us up for Sept.

So I think we can get to round 23 reasonably fresh (barring the unforeseen).  With a bye after round 23 gives us a chance to recharge the batteries.

I'm also quietly optimistic.

Yes, agree. 

In terms of rest, Max is my biggest concern. 

He is doing an enormous amount of work around the ground, all game. He has the bruising encounters of ruck work but is doing an enormous amount of running and contested ball work. Thought Goodwin may have rested him toward the end of the game.

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

4 minutes ago, hemingway said:

Yes, agree. 

In terms of rest, Max is my biggest concern. 

He is doing an enormous amount of work around the ground, all game. He has the bruising encounters of ruck work but is doing an enormous amount of running and contested ball work. Thought Goodwin may have rested him toward the end of the game.

 

This.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I think we will win 6 of the next 7.  Not sure who we drop theme against, could possibly be this week.

I am extremely confident that we will be Geelong when we play them next.

[Goffer 256]

No reason we can’t beat Port & the Crows at Adelaide, on evidence to date we have the measure of those clubs. Likewise GWS. My concerns are injury, and the Sydney & WC games, they both possess the firepower to punish us. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,772]

With the run home we have I cannot see us holding on to a top four spot. Sixth is my prediction.

If we do make the four we could go in as favourites for the flag.

Assuming Eagles and Richmond take the top two positions it will be interesting to see who is the fourth club.

My nightmare is that we finish 7th and play all our finals on the road. After suffering this long at least we deserve to see them live.

Darwin as usual will cost us dearly

[brendan 3,458]

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

 

ladder predictor for those wanting to have a crack 

[dl4e 5,851]

Sticking to start of year predictions. 14 wins and 5th spot. It could be better I hope.

[Deeoldfart 8,201]

Where we finish has a great deal to do with self (team) belief, and steely resolve.  We have shown an abundance of these qualities in the last 6 weeks, and if they remain intact, we finish top 4.

[CBDees 3,167]

4 hours ago, Demon3 said:

its a crazy run home, but all we have to do is win the games we should from here on, we don't have to be the best team in H&A.. just the best team in September.

Collingwood - Win / Port (Away) - Loss/ Saints - Win / Freo  - Win / Dogs - Win / Cats (away) - Loss / Crows - (Away) Loss / Suns - Win / Swans - Loss /  Eagles (away) - Loss / Giants  - Win

 

I say we beat Giants in R23..  have learnt a lot from last year.

Gives us 13 wins - That's why i dont think we make Top 4. 

Frankly I think that we are more than capable of winning the two Adelaide games (giving us an additional eight wins and a real chance for a Top Four finish)!

p.s. We better finish Top Four as I will be overseas and miss the first Final.

Edited June 4, 2018 by CBDees