Richmond 2018...are they the Bullogs of 2016

[Diamond_Jim 12,549]

It was obvious to many that the Bulldogs were a lucky winner of the 2016 GF and good luck to them.

Are Richmond the same ... will they make the eight even in 2018.

I'm not sure but my gut feel is that at the end of the home and away they will sit between 7 and 10 and that will be the end of their season.

Will there be a new Richmond (MFC perhaps) or will traditional football (Adelaide, Geelong and GWS) re-impose their dominance.

The only caveat I have is that whereas the Bulldogs rode their luck in the 2016 finals and had some close wins the Tigers were rather emphatic in their victories.

[M_9 2,081]

Near impossible to compare the two premiers as they have significantly different game plans (my observation anyway).

The Dogs got players behind the ball and ran in numbers. The Tigers relied on pressure at the contest. Easier to dismantle the Dogs game than the Tigers. That so many of the Dogs players dropped away was surprising - Dalhaus, Daniel, JJ, Stringer et al were nowhere near as good this year. The Tigers will be a better outfit next year, but highly unlikely to have such a dream run re injuries.

[McQueen 17,864]

[Little Goffy 14,461]

It would be a dream new era of football if the situation continued like this, where teams performing well one year can then have a good run the next season and push for a premiership, and then fall back to the pack the year after that.

Richmond certainly have a bit of brittleness still. They got through on terrific momentum and having all the 'ordinary' players in form together, and that is exactly how it should go.

And next year, they can go back to being the regular Richmond we all know.

[praha 11,236]

Imo Richmond of 2017 were better than Bulldogs of 2016. 

[brendan 3,434]

All depends if dusty takes the premiership medal off and stops partying before June 

[Spirit of '87 333]

I assume you mean will Richmond 2018 be the Bulldogs of 2017 when things went pear shaped for them, rather than will they be the Bulldogs of 2016 in your heading, when they won the premiership? 

But yes, potentially...

 

[Skuit 10,031]

4 hours ago, Spirit of '87 said:

I assume you mean will Richmond 2018 be the Bulldogs of 2017 when things went pear shaped for them, rather than will they be the Bulldogs of 2016 in your heading, when they won the premiership? 

But yes, potentially...

 

Nice take-down Spirit. The verbal equivalent of a 'don't argue'. But also yes, most definitely. They rode their tin-ass luck all the way to a topless premiership-medallion photo-shoot, but:

If alone, in the slightest of sliding-doors moments, we had beaten them the way gods had intended before Jake Spencer brought his own bad karma, the finals rankings would have looked like this, with them having to front up for an elimination re-match against us:

Adelaide

Geelong

GWS

Port

Sydney

Richmond

Melbourne

Essendon

Conclusion: see ya later RFC. They'll struggle to make finals next year.

 

 

[hemingway 7,615]

Post Flag year has become difficult for the Premiers.

The let down has always been a factor but now you have an even competition and the intensity of the game has increased significantly. We have seen how dropping off intensity by only marginal levels can affect match results. So the Tigers will have to bring the same intensity to their game next year as well as keep their match winners free from serious injury. No easy task. However, they have developed great depth and replacement players. They have also a group elite players that are as good as any team going around. 

I can't see them dropping off like the dogs but I cant see them going back to back.    

[mauriesy 7,261]

In relation to the thread title, how can you tell until well into 2018?

[Diamond_Jim 12,549]

Interesting that people rate the Tigers so highly given that pre 2017 most pundits had them missing the 8 in 2017.

They will have a harder draw in 2018 and other than Rioli there are no stand out youngsters coming through that I know of.

An injury or drop in form to any one of their main 3 in Martin, Rance or Riewoldt will test them.

7-10 is my prediction.

In my opening post I also raised the question of the way the game is going from a tactical sense. While it seems that the "pressure" game works well (best) in finals it is a very had game plan to maintain for a whole season. As MFC appears to be favouring the pressure plan it will be interesting.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Diamond_Jim

[old55 23,404]

Both [censored] truck teams have devalued the premiership

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,488]

I honestly don't believe that luck can win you a premiership.

[Ungarie boy 233]

What the Bulldogs experienced and the Tigers will experience is the significantly more difficult draw that is given to the top 4 teams, but in particular the premiers.  They also go from slipping under the radar of other teams, to being the "hunted".  Their game style will be analysed to death over the summer (more-so than other teams), with at least one club working them out.  Pressure of expectations also comes into play. Lastly when all these things are taking an affect; comes the flow-on effect with an increase in injuries or fatigue (drop in form).   So I expect the pattern to continue, ninth seems about right!

Conversely teams like GWS, Sydney and Adelaide who all performed strongly with tough draws can be expected to continue to be there.  Watch for Hawthorn who in theory should have a lot better draw, while possessing a coach who can beat the "premiership trend" rather than follow it.

 

[darkhorse72 1,906]

On 13/10/2017 at 11:15 AM, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

I honestly don't believe that luck can win you a premiership.

There is always luck in a premiership...but great sides make their own.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,488]

42 minutes ago, Darkhorse72 said:

There is always luck in a premiership...but great sides make their own.

Of course- but luck won’t win it for you.

The idea that Richmond and the Bulldogs are somehow undeserving or that we should view their premierships as lucky is crazy-sauce.

The way the Bulldogs played through September last year and the way Richmond dismembered teams during the finals this year - they could have beaten absolutely anyone.  It wasn’t luck- they both simply played amazingly intense, manic football.

[Little Goffy 14,461]

On 10/13/2017 at 2:15 PM, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

I honestly don't believe that luck can win you a premiership.

I guess it is a bit like money and happiness.

Luck wont get you a premiership, but the lack of it can take one away.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,488]

13 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

I guess it is a bit like money and happiness.

Luck wont get you a premiership, but the lack of it can take one away.

Ipso facto... every premiership team is ‘lucky’.

[Demon trucker 1,800]

There is no doubt Richmond won the premiership because of the MCG,  when they played Adelaide in Adelaide Oval they were smashed by 14 goals, and of course luck plays a big part in a premiership Richmond had 16 players play 20 games or more, the dees had 9 players play over 19 games,  heading into the finals Richmond had two players on their injury list,  last year I said the Bulldogs weren't the best side but rather the best side of the finals, i was shot down and people said that was a big call but i seem to be proven correct, if GWS had won round 23 the tigers would of played in NSW, GWS were pretty much  unbeatable at home, the only team the tigers beat out side of Vic was the lions, the tiger were useless away from the MCG, saints smashed them at eithad, cat beat them easily at the chattery, the  whole premiership was built on good luck and good fortune no injuries and all the finals at the MCG how easy is that for them,  before anybody says I'm talking rubbish just look at the facts and it will tell you the story.

[Diamond_Jim 12,549]

2 hours ago, don't make me angry said:

There is no doubt Richmond won the premiership because of the MCG,  when they played Adelaide in Adelaide Oval they were smashed by 14 goals, and of course luck plays a big part in a premiership Richmond had 16 players play 20 games or more, the dees had 9 players play over 19 games,  heading into the finals Richmond had two players on their injury list,  last year I said the Bulldogs weren't the best side but rather the best side of the finals, i was shot down and people said that was a big call but i seem to be proven correct, if GWS had won round 23 the tigers would of played in NSW, GWS were pretty much  unbeatable at home, the only team the tigers beat out side of Vic was the lions, the tiger were useless away from the MCG, saints smashed them at eithad, cat beat them easily at the chattery, the  whole premiership was built on good luck and good fortune no injuries and all the finals at the MCG how easy is that for them,  before anybody says I'm talking rubbish just look at the facts and it will tell you the story.

Lot in what you say and obviously the MCG was a factor.

Last year the Bulldogs played mainly outside Victoria in the finals and they just won those games. The Tigers on the other hand won by decent margins at the MCG. In truth given the relatively easy shots they missed in both games it is arguable that they should have won by 3-4 goals more.

What I cannot understand is why both Adelaide and GWS gave up the corridor to the Tigers. Their hug the boundary line and kick to the big forward was slow and relatively easy to defend. Of course they had the contested marking talls but it seemed that when they didn't fire around the wing or thereabouts it was game over.

 

[Tony Tea 2,806]

EVERYTHING went right for Richmond in 2017, plus the flag was ripe for pinching. The Tigers only need a few injuries, especially to Rance or Dusty, and they will need a parachute.

Edited October 15, 2017 by Tony Tea

[puntkick 325]

On ‎12‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 8:32 PM, Diamond_Jim said:

It was obvious to many that the Bulldogs were a lucky winner of the 2016 GF and good luck to them.

Are Richmond the same ... will they make the eight even in 2018.

I'm not sure but my gut feel is that at the end of the home and away they will sit between 7 and 10 and that will be the end of their season.

Will there be a new Richmond (MFC perhaps) or will traditional football (Adelaide, Geelong and GWS) re-impose their dominance.

The only caveat I have is that whereas the Bulldogs rode their luck in the 2016 finals and had some close wins the Tigers were rather emphatic in their victories.

DJ I'm intrigued in para 4 you seem to include GWS as a " traditional football " ( something  )

Surely manufactured is the new dominant word for tradition ! 

[Diamond_Jim 12,549]

1 hour ago, puntkick said:

DJ I'm intrigued in para 4 you seem to include GWS as a " traditional football " ( something  )

Surely manufactured is the new dominant word for tradition ! 

traditional in a game plan sense ... if any thing they are the Frankenstein of the traditional game plan with big forwards, running backs and a deep midfield.

Again they will have good draft picks to top up the "machine" but has the game passed that model by? Sure they will win more than they lose and therefore give themselves a chance at the big one but statistically is it still the better style.

Frankly I'm not sure .. thus the question.