Worrying Stats

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

G'day all,

Long-time reader, first-time poster. 

I know stats aren't something to get bogged down in, but after watching recent games and noticing certain patterns emerging, I decided to investigate some specific stats. Namely disposals vs disposal efficiency. We currently No. 1 in disposals (great to be at the top of something!) yet 14th in disposal efficiency. To me that says "doing everything the hard way". The handball-at-all-costs thing is sometimes very effective, but it seems to be the default mode of play, even when it is so painfully obvious that it isn't the right option. I know yelling "kick it" at the TV often flies in the face of what the team should actually be doing at the time (maintaining possession). It's an amateur piece of advice. But man, I'm yelling it a lot lately.

Oh and what I said about it being good to be No.1 at something, unfortunately we're also No.1 in clangers at present ?

And languishing at 16th for contested marks. We are sorely lacking in mid-field targets. I can't help but feel these are the things holding us back from being a league-conquering team.

That, and just being a bit [censored] sometimes (sorry boys, I love ya. 43 years is a long freakin time to wait for a flag though, so I'm allowed to give you some [censored], right?)

 

 

 

 

[bandicoot 1,395]

It's something that the coaching staff need to work on over the pre season. We seem to be kicking the ball to 50/50 contests instead of finding the free man. 

Brisbane were consistently kicking to free men playing the same brand as hawthorn. 

The problem with kicking to contests is that it's taxing on the players. Every play you need to be a hero to win the ball. 

I'm not so much concerned about contested marks. Most of the season we haven't played with Gawn or hogan who would account for 2-3 a game each. 

[Skuit 10,031]

Welcome aboard Mel B. Always happy to chat stats, and the dearth of contested marks have been bugging me for the entire season. Can you explain what disposal efficiency is? Does it refer to disposals per goal? And how you relate that back specifically to our kamikaze handball style?

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Knowing when to play on and handball as opposed to stopping and hitting a loose target needs to be addressed.

When we were 32 points up, if we kicked more (kept attacking) and didn't just handpass at every opportunity we probably would have won by a lot more.

Edited August 20, 2017 by Clint Bizkit

[Diamond_Jim 12,578]

One could write a book on this subject. 

To look at it from a positive viewpoint... Why are we vying for the eight when we are so bad at the basics? 

The game plan encourages risk but like the bulldogs last year it does not seem to be an easy scoring game plan.  It puts incredible pressure on the defence and can so often look ugly. 

Like the bulldogs it might snare us the big one but it is not the plan for long term dominance. 

Great first post... Hope you make many more 

[rufus 1,162]

The contested marks are the biggest worry for me. We are building a competitive, effective midfield that COULD get us in a position to compete at the top in the next few years. However, we are going to miss our chance if we can't find one or even two reliable tall defenders who can be effective in a genuine one on one (and by effective I mean simply being able to half the contest). At the moment, if a team brings it in high and gets some isolation it feels like a score almost every  time.

Huge credit to Goodwin. To my mind, he has done a magnificent job getting us to 12 wins this year.

[praha 11,240]

Richmond, Geelong Adelaide all languish with us near the bottom for marks.

Sydney joins us near the bottom for disposal efficiency. 

The most important stats are win:loss record and percentage. The bigger worry is that we can't win big.

Not at all worried about the other stats mentioned here because we're winning the ball where it matters.

[CityDee 738]

I think the next phase we will work on over summer will be similar to what richmond do, a kicking game that involves kicking sideways to a player who has a meter on their opponent. Tempo footy when required 

[Gorgoroth 12,950]

We OVER handball, thats fact. But the biggest problem is those handballs are 1 meter to another player under the same pressure. The ol Cam Bruce special. 

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

Can anyone report on the uncontested mark stats per game differential when we win and when we lose?  It always feels like in games that we are 'on', we dont allow many uncontested marks.  When the opposition gets a lot of marks is when we get beaten.  In a way, it speaks of making the contest and stopping easy transition chains.  This also screws with the ability of the back 6 to set up properly - I think this group have been phenomenal all year, and if they get time to set up by us contesting appropriately through the middle, we are often in good shape to defend.

We also get outmarked over and over (Trac excepted, love his work) between the arcs.  Our contested mark stats would be appalling as well.

I know we are trying to play a fast brand of high risk footy, and Goody has them playing it.  The next step is to play it intelligently, and to do it with tempo.

[Biffen 12,943]

Stats re disposals are misleading.

We all still love yelling

"Kick the bloody thing"

Truth is we are stealing a lot of ball off the opposition and running away by a weave of handball.With no forward to kick to.

The percentage indicates a good defensive mindset.

The Sydneys are the only big losses.They both have an ability to win it and get it free by foot .

We have displayed an ability to shut games down and " win easily" by less than 2 goals.

Thrashing a lowly side is irrelevant now.

Our only problem is closing the gap on GWS and Sydney.

A young side with everything to play for will only improve in effort and execution .

We are a high tackling team and we do overuse the ball.

Having Pedo and Brayshaw mitigates our handball happy issues.Both get high "metres gained".

When we play well our handballs are wider- a la Nevilles magnificent attacking 20-25 metre  hand passes yesterday.

We need a lift in marks from Max and Tom Mac to play more efficiently.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

As stated by Biffen above, our game style regularly leaves us with few options forward. This means once we get the ball we handball sideways a lot to allow others to stream forward. 

But credit should also go to the opposition. They know we want to play on at every opportunity and put pressure on the ball carrier which often requires a handpass rather than a kick because it's quicker, easier and generally safer (in that it hits a target) to do under pressure compared with kicking the ball.

[layzie 33,796]

Welcome!

It is a worrying stat but hopefully something that will be rectified as the list develops. We win hard ball, we get it to the outside but we just aren't quite that slick when trying to damage by foot on the outside. Not to mentio the number of times we overuse with handball.

[Guest]

Probably not surprising that if you aren't good at marking the thing down the line, you are going to be popping it around and trying to find an open target.

In essence, one answers the other.

[The Chazz 4,077]

We play a contested style of footy.  When we get the ball, it's often in tight, so the way to clear it out is by hand balling.  There's too much pressure in tight to kick it all the time - will turn in to either a million smothers, or kicking to nothing.

It's also worth remembering that if you are watching the game on TV, and yelling the "kick the bloody thing" line, don't forget that you can't see what is forward of the ball.  A lot of the time, there are no options forward, or very low percentage options.

There were many times yesterday, sitting in the crowd, where people were frustrated because of our hand balling.  If those people actually looked at the big picture, they would soon realise that hand balling was by far the best option.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

40 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

There were many times yesterday, sitting in the crowd, where people were frustrated because of our hand balling.  If those people actually looked at the big picture, they would soon realise that hand balling was by far the best option.

All fair points but your last paragraph is where I'd disagree.

The overuse of the footy is something we're renown for and it comes from having one, two or sometimes several unnecessary handballs at a stoppage/reset in play. The fact we are number one for disposals in the league yet have a poor disposal efficiency validates this point.

Hanballing is indeed necessary if there's nothing on down the line. But the idea is to work your way out of traffic with well executed handballs to players who are ideally in free space and are therefore able to spot up free targets.

But to execute these types of plays cleanly more often than not requires players with a certain skill set/specific attributes. We struggle enough when there is a little bit of pressure, but when it's really hot in the contest like it was against GWS and Sydney, we simply fall to water.

Jones, Lewis and Oliver are generally our most consistent players when it comes to being super clean, making great decisions and executing a handbal well in really hot situations. But that's not nearly enough. 

Our midfield group are really good at cracking in. But generally speaking, we don't possess the touch, decision making and skill to move the ball fluently through that part of the ground often enough. And in my eyes, we need to make a correction over the off-season to our midfield profile.

Nuffies on this site think I knock Tyson because I get a kick out of it, when really I am dying for this club to be great again.

Tyson is the perfect example of what I'm talking about. He came to our club when we were crying out for some mids that could compete at the coal face and it was absolutely the right move in bringing him to the club at the time. But quite obviously, our list has improved, our talent has improved and he has been overtaken by players who are better and offer more. So what's happened? He has now been given more of an outside role, (regularly plays wing and his uncontested numbers are well up) yet his weaknesses as a player are everything an outside player needs to be good at! Two-way running, footskills, handballing, versatility etc.

Tyson is essentially an inside mid playing an outside role and this is really problematic imo. I understand Goodwin and co can't fix all areas over one season and I'm sure posters point out to me that he's been playing every week. But my concern still stands.

Tyson would be a perfect backup for an injured first choice inside mid. But the position he now plays needs to be in the hands of a player who is suited to that position. 

Long-winded post. Basically we need more balance in our midfield to address the overuse problem. Tyson is an example of this. 

Edited August 21, 2017 by stevethemanjordan

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,784]

8 hours ago, Mel Bourne said:

 

That, and just being a bit [censored] sometimes (sorry boys, I love ya. 43 years is a long freakin time to wait for a flag though, so I'm allowed to give you some [censored], right?)

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Interesting stats, Mel.

But 43 years?? It's been 53 years!

Perhaps you were born in '74, so didn't have to suffer '64  to '74.

 

 

 

 

[Maldonboy38 6,402]

Since 2014 we have addressed a lot of gameplay issues, fixing problems through recruiting, development and direct coaching. I still consider marking to be the most important skill in the game after kicking because it gives the team 5 - 7 seconds to set up and/or move and no one can touch the ball carrier. It is a free hit. Hogan is a beast at contested marking and Weideman is tracking really well. TMac is very good and OMac is developing in this area also. But only Petracca and Brayshaw of our midfield brigade are any good at contested marking so we need to improve this over the 2018 preseason for oir midfielders. 

And we still lack the outside runner who can receive the 2nd handball, who is skilled enoughand quick enough not to have to handball each time. Lewis Jetta, Isaac Smith, Scully (hate typing that) Crouch etc...

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

5 hours ago, Skuit said:

Welcome aboard Mel B. Always happy to chat stats, and the dearth of contested marks have been bugging me for the entire season. Can you explain what disposal efficiency is? Does it refer to disposals per goal? And how you relate that back specifically to our kamikaze handball style?

Cheers Skuit!

My understanding of disposal efficiency is the percentage of disposals that find their intended target, or at least works to the team's advantage. 

Basically it's the amount of times you make that pained, frustrated groan when one of your team's disposals lands in the hands of the other's. 

 

 

[rjay 24,919]

32 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Nuffies on this site think I knock Tyson because I get a kick out of it

Sometimes 'steve', you are like a broken record...and maybe, just maybe you could be wrong at times.

Apologies for being a Nuffie but I've had ENuffie...

[Mel Bourne 4,515]

17 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

 

Indeed JJC, this was a personal waiting-time reference! Born in 75. Just glad it wasn't 65. 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

26 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

All fair points but your last paragraph is where I'd disagree.

The overuse of the footy is something we're renown for and it comes from having one, two or sometimes several unnecessary handballs at a stoppage/reset in play. The fact we are number one for disposals in the league yet have a poor disposal efficiency validates this point....

Great post, I agree with just about everything.

A lot of the time we over handball because the the player with the ball either can't or chooses not to break away from the pack at speed as a first option instead of just going straight for the handpass as the first option.  We have very few players who can evade tackles within a confined area, they are Jetta, Hannan, Jones and to a lesser extent, Petracca.

Good teams like Sydney aren't the quickest, but in close they are explosive like Sam Mitchell is and with a couple of quick steps can create space in congested situations while still possessing the ball. They also understand that if they are immediately tackled they haven't had any prior opportunity so they only need "attempt" to dispose of the ball to avoid being caught holding the ball.

Hunt and Frost are quick, but they take at least five metres to get to top speed and because they always run in a straight line they are very predictable and get caught more often then they should. Both need to spend time with Jetta to master the art of the sidestep.

Tyson is the opposite in that because he is so slow he cannot break away in tight situations so he needs to get the ball off quickly, however his problems are compounded by the fact that he takes an eternity to get his hands up to give the quick handpass off (see Oliver) and is therefore often caught holding the ball.

 

[kurtneverdied 244]

6 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Knowing when to play on and handball as opposed to stopping and hitting a loose target needs to be addressed.

When we were 32 points up, if we kicked more (kept attacking) and didn't just handpass at every opportunity we probably would have won by a lot more.

Exactly how I have been feeling.
We can not put away teams, which is really concerning for this years prospects anyway.

[rpfc 28,410]

A clear second in contested possessions just behind Adelaide...

Look, the numbers will allow anyone to find whatever they want to find if you look at them the right way.

I see a team that has been consistent with how it plays and the pressure it applies. However, as CB says - we don't have the balance right and can go for 10 minutes making bad handball after bad handball and when you screw up with that skill - you get hurt.

But, we have improved so much on last year, and are lightyears away from what we were in 2014.

So we haven't perfected Goodwin's style in Year 1 - we can still do some damage in a couple of weeks time if we have everyone fit and our bottom 6 contribute.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

20 minutes ago, Maldonboy38 said:

Since 2014 we have addressed a lot of gameplay issues, fixing problems through recruiting, development and direct coaching. I still consider marking to be the most important skill in the game after kicking because it gives the team 5 - 7 seconds to set up and/or move and no one can touch the ball carrier. It is a free hit.

This.

That is why I pull my hair out when we make rushed and silly decisions after a mark such as not getting back behind the mark quickly or even worse, not far enough.  Yesterday Melksham tried to play on while Zorko was tackling him for crying out loud.

As you say, it's a free hit.

By all means play on, but if you can't play on within a couple of seconds of taking the mark then get well back behind your mark, give yourself space (you now have a ten metre protected zone), use the seven seconds and execute your skills without the pressure of the opposition bearing down on you.