HS Bicks weighs your AFL team’s chances with his 2017 preview

[JAG007 164]

Has anyone seen the content in this article referring to Melbourne?

[beelzebub 23,376]

2 minutes ago, JAG007 said:

Has anyone seen the content in this article referring to Melbourne?

Yes I have...actually it really only evolved around making sure we applied 100% forward defensive pressure..Seems tot hink otherwise we're not so bad.  ( my take ) 

I'd ....actually agree.. we NEED to keep ball inthe 50..best way is not let it out

[JAG007 164]

Yes I can remember one analyst (can't recall who now) stating that statistics MFC were the 3rd worst for defensive pressure acts when not in possession.

[beelzebub 23,376]

2 minutes ago, JAG007 said:

Yes I can remember one analyst (can't recall who now) stating that statistics MFC were the 3rd worst for defensive pressure acts when not in possession.

probably right.... we've dropped the ball ( sic) on this. Hard enough to get it..best not to lose it.. Whilst it's in OUR 50 the chances of scoring go up...up...and UP !!   simples !!

[stuie 7,374]

39 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Yes I have...actually it really only evolved around making sure we applied 100% forward defensive pressure..Seems tot hink otherwise we're not so bad.  ( my take ) 

I'd ....actually agree.. we NEED to keep ball inthe 50..best way is not let it out

Doesn't mention forward pressure once (although it is a problem of ours). I'm assuming we're reading the same article:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/bicks-weighs-your-afl-teams-chances-with-his-2017-preview/news-story/7622c2abca6aa7d449204770f6bbee1c

Short version is consistency is still a problem, has tipped us to finish 9th.

 

[CBDees 3,167]

Not sure that I agree with his pessimism and (from my read of the training reports) he has under-rated Hogan! I disagree with his prediction that we will finish ninth (Richmond's spot) and that Petracca is our sole "gem", although his assessments of some of our opposition teams are incisive! Aside from my comments above, the article was a good summary, and at least he hasn't raised unreasonable expectations on us.

[Sir Why You Little 37,036]

What Bickley has written is fair enough for an outsider..Rounds 22 & 23 of this year are still what we are being judged on even with a wiff of finals

Clubs will still expect to Roll us with the right pressure at this stage.

It depends how hungry our list is

[binman 42,963]

MELBOURNE

Christian Petracca ... will get more midfield minutes. Picture: Sarah Reed

The Dees have new coach in Simon Goodwin, emerging confidence and a talented list, but will that translate to enough wins to play finals? We saw late last year the problem with the Demons — they have a ground breaking win against Hawthorn only to lose to Carlton when a finals spot is on the line.

Gem

Christian Petracca is an aggressive, big-bodied midfielder who played mainly forward in 2016. It ws his first season after a knee reconstruction and with greater fitness and confidence, he should see more midfield minutes.

Under the pump

Jesse Hogan is the Demons’ great hope inside forward 50, but just three goals in the last six games of the year, should show him that it’s not going to just happen. After his fourth pre-season, he should be bigger and stronger. He will need to kick 60-plus goals for the Demons to play finals.

Forecast

This list looks more than capable but I still have my doubts on their consistency and who will help Hogan up forward. The Demons will improve again but finish just outside thefinals in ninth.

[monoccular 17,428]

2 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

What Bickley has written is fair enough for an outsider..Rounds 22 & 23 of this year are still what we are being judged on even with a wiff of finals

Clubs will still expect to Roll us with the right pressure at this stage.

It depends how hungry our list is

A fair assessment - we must learn to

- win games that we should

- not fold under pressure

- answer pressure with pressure

- follow but a single piece of Mark Neeld's wish list, being the hardest team to play against. We have only seen it in flashes, v Hawks, and v Cats 2015 - if repeated we can go places. 

[binman 42,963]

Don't disagree with his critique about us losing games we shouldn't. Who would. Though in some ways i reckon our failure to beat Carlton might in the end be a blessing in disguise as it provides a fire that should burn.

But Hogan under the pump? Becasue he only kicked 3 goals in the lat six games? Please. That's nonsense, though to be fair to Bickley even some Demons fans underestimate Hogan (as evidenced by various poster on DL),

And who will help Hogan up forward? Maybe Watts?

[rjay 24,928]

Like a lot of these things, a broad brush approach to the critique.

...but I think his overall summation of the 18 clubs is pretty good.

I would probably swap us with the Saints bringing us into the 8 but that's of course taking into account my personal bias.

I'm not as concerned as many about losing games we shouldn't, due to the inexperience of the team in 2016.

If it happens in 2017 then I would be...

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by rjay

[Gator 17,353]

The youngest team in the comp hit the wall in round 22.  It wasn't a "consistency" issue.  In 2013 we lost 11 games by 60 points or more.  We did this once in 2016.  We won more quarters than the Saints and finished with a higher percentage.

We'll be fitter, stronger and more experienced in 2017.

We will get good very quickly.

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

I think I'd swap us and the saints around given third man up is now gone, max should have a pretty strong influence and our midfield looks strong and deep if we can get the same natural progression and development. 

[stuie 7,374]

3 hours ago, ProDee said:

The youngest team in the comp hit the wall in round 22.  It wasn't a "consistency" issue.

Yes it was. They're young, so they were inconsistent. Beat Hawthorn then lose to Carlton, what else would you call that?

"We'll be fitter, stronger and more experienced in 2017." Translates to: We'll be more consistent.

 

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

22 minutes ago, stuie said:

Yes it was. They're young, so they were inconsistent. Beat Hawthorn then lose to Carlton, what else would you call that?

"We'll be fitter, stronger and more experienced in 2017." Translates to: We'll be more consistent.

 

I hope it's that simple stuie, I do worry that a lot of our consistency issues might be above the shoulders though. Perhaps experience will help with that but our losses to Essendon and Carlton show we still drop a lot of games we should win 

[stuie 7,374]

4 minutes ago, Abe said:

I hope it's that simple stuie, I do worry that a lot of our consistency issues might be above the shoulders though. Perhaps experience will help with that but our losses to Essendon and Carlton show we still drop a lot of games we should win 

Agreed Abe. I do think our consistency issues come down to fitness (young group still building their tanks), experience and leadership, all areas we have improved on during this offseason, so you'd naturally think then that we should be able to improve in that area next year.

 

[Gator 17,353]

46 minutes ago, stuie said:

Yes it was. They're young, so they were inconsistent. Beat Hawthorn then lose to Carlton, what else would you call that?

"We'll be fitter, stronger and more experienced in 2017." Translates to: We'll be more consistent.

 

Stu, as the new year approaches I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself and will remove the yellow lines that follow you around.

As I said in the post you quoted they were cooked by round 22, i.e. the Carlton game.  I was fortunate enough to attend a club function post season where a very senior footy person within the club said all the signs were there in the second half of the Port game that the young players were spent (notwithstanding the victory).  Subsequently, they were worried about the final two games.  Those fears were realised as the long year caught up with them.

Just one 10 goal+ thrashing (when we were cooked), good percentage, 10 wins and a healthy number of quarters won.  In one win we fielded 3 teenagers.

I accept your point that inconsistency follows young teams who will naturally develop weary bodies.  Any team that doesn't make the 8 has degrees of inconsistency, but overall the consistency factor was as good as any "reasonable" supporter could hope for from such a young group.

As this new gameplan becomes second nature their performances will be stronger and more consistent.  I'm confident this will be the case in 2017.

Edited December 29, 2016 by ProDee

[stuie 7,374]

2 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Stu, as the new year approaches I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself and will remove the yellow lines that follow you around.

As I said in the post you quoted they were cooked by round 22, i.e. the Carlton game.  I was fortunate enough to attend a club function post season where a very senior footy person within the club said all the signs were there in the second half of the Port game that the young players were spent (notwithstanding the victory).  Subsequently, they were worried about the final two games.  Those fears were realised as the long year caught up with them.

Just one 10 goal+ thrashing (when we were cooked), good percentage, 10 wins and a healthy number of quarters won.  In one win we fielded 4 teenagers.

I accept your point that inconsistency follows young teams who will naturally develop weary bodies.  Any team that doesn't make the 8 has degrees of inconsistency, but overall the consistency factor was as good as any "reasonable" supporter could hope for from such a young group.

As this new gameplan becomes second nature their performances will be stronger and more consistent.  I'm confident this will be the case in 2017.

"Redeem myself"? Ok then, likewise I will grant you a clean slate from previous behaviour and allow you another chance to win me over

I think we're on the same page pretty much, and totally agree that the list changes we've made, offseason work and progress we would naturally expect should translate to a far more consistent team in 2017. I don't think either the original article or my post was slamming the side for inconsistency, but rather saying it was an understandable factor, and one which I have more faith in being less of an issue in 2017 than Bickley does.

Excited about the developing game plan (no small part of which is the innovation we will see from Goodwin), but for mine I think the greatest improvement will come from our better leadership and fitness (as in, more mature bodies with better tanks).

 

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

We will play finals in 2017.

Bickley missed the key issue. Max Gawn must remain fit for the entire season. It's actually that simple.

 

[beelzebub 23,376]

17 hours ago, stuie said:

Doesn't mention forward pressure once (although it is a problem of ours). I'm assuming we're reading the same article:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/bicks-weighs-your-afl-teams-chances-with-his-2017-preview/news-story/7622c2abca6aa7d449204770f6bbee1c

Short version is consistency is still a problem, has tipped us to finish 9th.

 

I confused the Bickz article with another Herald piece. Lol

[Gator 17,353]

27 minutes ago, stuie said:

"Redeem myself"? Ok then, likewise I will grant you a clean slate from previous behaviour and allow you another chance to win me over

I think we're on the same page pretty much, and totally agree that the list changes we've made, offseason work and progress we would naturally expect should translate to a far more consistent team in 2017. I don't think either the original article or my post was slamming the side for inconsistency, but rather saying it was an understandable factor, and one which I have more faith in being less of an issue in 2017 than Bickley does.

Excited about the developing game plan (no small part of which is the innovation we will see from Goodwin), but for mine I think the greatest improvement will come from our better leadership and fitness (as in, more mature bodies with better tanks).

 

One thing I didn't touch on was that save for the Essendon game in round 2 and the final two games of the year I thought mentally we were good for such a young team.  I think the physical effort was good, which is the real sign of a team's mental consistency.

Good and experienced teams have the Essendon type games too, like Geelong did in round 4 when Essendon were ahead in the third, the difference is they know how to eke out a victory in circumstances they put down to "one of those days".

Unlike Abe, I'm very comfortable we have a mentally strong hard-nosed group developing within our midst.

[Ted Lasso 19,518]

2 minutes ago, ProDee said:

One thing I didn't touch on was that save for the Essendon game in round 2 and the final two games of the year I thought mentally we were good for such a young team.  I think the physical effort was good, which is the real sign of a team's mental consistency.

Good and experienced teams have the Essendon type games too, like Geelong did in round 4 when Essendon were ahead in the third, the difference is they know how to eke out a victory in circumstances they put down to "one of those days".

Unlike Abe, I'm very comfortable we have a mentally strong hard-nosed group developing within our midst.

Agreed pro dee, I just wonder if the Essendon game in particular was a result of a level of complacency amoung other things, which I think is understandable for such a young team that had been in particularly good form around that time having won all three nab cup games and won in round 1 as well. 

I understand your point that sides sometimes have a bad day and we need to find a way to win, and I agree but I also see a pattern against teams we start favourites against and that is something we should have a look at, can't afford to drop many of those games if we are to play finals in 2017. 

[Sir Why You Little 37,036]

The MFC has had problems with being favourites in games for over 50 years. Big wins have always been a suprise...

 

[sue 9,106]

1 hour ago, ProDee said:

....

As I said in the post you quoted they were cooked by round 22, i.e. the Carlton game.  I was fortunate enough to attend a club function post season where a very senior footy person within the club said all the signs were there in the second half of the Port game that the young players were spent (notwithstanding the victory).  Subsequently, they were worried about the final two games.  Those fears were realised as the long year caught up with them.

...

I watched a replay of that match recently and it was obvious (as it was not to me at the time) that something was very wrong in the second half.  Energy was well down. They often looked as if they were playing in treacle.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

2 hours ago, sue said:

I watched a replay of that match recently and it was obvious (as it was not to me at the time) that something was very wrong in the second half.  Energy was well down. They often looked as if they were playing in treacle.

And yet we doubled our lead in the last quarter against Port after they had got a head of steam up and got back in the game for a  period of time.