Taking stock

[DubDee 25,848]

so we are 3 and 6 after a tough start. I venture to say people would have taken that at the start of the season (having played the top 4 from last season)?

How do we think we will go for the rest of the season? The good news is we only have 1 game we are 100% no chance in (away to Freo). Call me crazy but I no longer put the cats in that category especially after the weekend

Other good news: we play St kilda twice, brisbane at home, carlton, and dogs again

I personally think we can win 6 of the next 13 at least. Given we have beaten GC, Tiges and Dogs (all fairly convinvingly) I think we roughly know our level. Given that, I reckon we are a shout in the 2 games against the pies and we will win one of them.

When Tyson, Viney, Salem are back firing I think we could go on a roll and maybe...... dare I say it..... win two games in a row!!!

Go Dees!! I'll be there on Monday screaming my guts out

[old dee 23,787]

Stick with my pre season view.

Most likely six wins with a possible eight at the high end.

I Have seen little to suggest we have improved significantly.

Small improvement is what I expected.

[stuie 7,374]

It's funny how in previous seasons we've said "forget the results it's about the improvement", but now that it seems like we are making incremental improvement at best people are trying to say "it's all about the results" when clearly our effort, talent, and consistency is still struggling as much as it has.

"Oh but we played the top 4 teams".... So what?! They are in the same competition and league as us and we totally failed to be competitive and put up a reasonable effort. We have shown a knack for totally rolling over when even slightly challenged and lack leadership and spirit.

Baffles me that people can have seen this and still expect us to win 8 games this year.

[The Chazz 4,077]

I did the ladder predictor on the AFL website and had us finishing with 9 wins for the season.

For the record, I did the predictor yesterday.

[poita 3,902]

As nice as the three wins have been, I suspect our percentage is more reflective of where we are at.

The fact that our percentage is more than 10% below St Kilda, despite having the same number of wins, is damning and shows that we still don't have a group which is prepared to work hard enough for long enough.

Regardless of our win / loss record for the remainder of the year, it would be hard to judge this as a successful year if our percentage doesn't finish above 80.

Oh, and despite breaking 100 twice this year, we still have the worst forward line in the competition.

[Jaded No More 68,906]

I think given we've played Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and GWS to be 3-6 is about where I expect us to be.

It's a fair indication of improvement, but also have far away we are from the top teams.

[beelzebub 23,351]

As nice as the three wins have been, I suspect our percentage is more reflective of where we are at.

The fact that our percentage is more than 10% below St Kilda, despite having the same number of wins, is damning and shows that we still don't have a group which is prepared to work hard enough for long enough.

Regardless of our win / loss record for the remainder of the year, it would be hard to judge this as a successful year if our percentage doesn't finish above 80.

Oh, and despite breaking 100 twice this year, we still have the worst forward line in the competition.

^^^^ yep

[pitmaster 3,549]

^^^^ yep

As nice as the three wins have been, I suspect our percentage is more reflective of where we are at.

The fact that our percentage is more than 10% below St Kilda, despite having the same number of wins, is damning and shows that we still don't have a group which is prepared to work hard enough for long enough.

St Kilda has played none of the top six from last year...we've played four of them. It's a false comparison.

Our win over the 'Dogs was much more comprehensive than the Saints squeaking over the line by 7 points.

Let's see how they go when they hit some seriously strong opponents as we did in four of the past five weeks.

[DubDee 25,848]

It's funny how in previous seasons we've said "forget the results it's about the improvement", but now that it seems like we are making incremental improvement at best people are trying to say "it's all about the results" when clearly our effort, talent, and consistency is still struggling as much as it has.

"Oh but we played the top 4 teams".... So what?! They are in the same competition and league as us and we totally failed to be competitive and put up a reasonable effort. We have shown a knack for totally rolling over when even slightly challenged and lack leadership and spirit.

Baffles me that people can have seen this and still expect us to win 8 games this year.

its based on how we've played in the 9 games

3 wins from 9. we can expect ~5 from the next 13 on that form = 8 wins

and its a much easier draw so I expect more than 8 wins

to say who cares if its all top 4 teams doesnt make sense to me. I understand some periods of play have been unacceptable but there have been positives

and wait until round 17 to judge %. we'll have hammered carlton by 120 pts by then

[stuie 7,374]

its based on how we've played in the 9 games

3 wins from 9. we can expect ~5 from the next 13 on that form = 8 wins

and its a much easier draw so I expect more than 8 wins

to say who cares if its all top 4 teams doesnt make sense to me. I understand some periods of play have been unacceptable but there have been positives

and wait until round 17 to judge %. we'll have hammered carlton by 120 pts by then

You're ignoring our form if you're just going by the number of games and how many we "should" win.

[Nasher 33,613]

We've been solid against the middling teams and garbage against the good ones.

We are a genuine middle of the pack side on evidence this year. I expect our results in the back half to be better than the front half due to the easier draw, with a bitter disappointment or two along the way.

[stuie 7,374]

We've been solid against the middling teams and garbage against the good ones.

We are a genuine middle of the pack side on evidence this year. I expect our results in the back half to be better than the front half due to the easier draw, with a bitter disappointment or two along the way.

I think everyone expecting these better results is basing that on us having a change around of form though. Not saying it won't happen, but it's unrealistic to expect 5 or more further wins given our current form.

For me, getting Frost and Kent back, as well as a more ready Viney, is the key to us having a chance of turning our form around.

[old dee 23,787]

We've been solid against the middling teams and garbage against the good ones.

We are a genuine middle of the pack side on evidence this year. I expect our results in the back half to be better than the front half due to the easier draw, with a bitter disappointment or two along the way.

I know this is splitting hairs Nasher but I have not seen that form yet.

We are firmly a bottom 6 side from my observations. Now that is better than a bottom two side that we have been for three years

Genuine Middle of the pack side to me means 10th to 8th.

We are not that good.

[praha 11,240]

We haven't beaten St Kilda in 10 years. We lost to them last year and they are arguably player better footy this year.

Brisbane is hit and miss.

The Dogs are hit and miss.

We can't expect to beat bottom teams only because if we lose to them then the season is a complete waste, as we saw last season in the final 10 rounds.

I didn't expect to beat any of Freo, Sydney, Hawthorn or Port but I expected effort. We just didn't see it. We capitulated in short bursts and that's what's been most disappointing, particularly in that our most experienced players were our worst players in those patches. That's not going to help us get off the bottom.

When are we going to turn a corner? Beating Brisbane, GC, Bulldogs, Saints, Carlton doesn't constitute turning a corner imo. We need to beat a good team, and hopefully it starts this week against Collingwood.

I expected 8 wins. I still do. But realistically I can't see us winning more than 5. If we can get 6 I'll be very surprised.

My main concern is not that we get smashed by top teams. It's that we capitulate and crumble so easily.

What happens if the Saints score the first 3-4 goals against us? We'll lose by 10 goals.

Edited June 3, 2015 by praha

[hardtack 10,537]

I know this is splitting hairs Nasher but I have not seen that form yet.

We are firmly a bottom 6 side from my observations. Now that is better than a bottom two side that we have been for three years

Genuine Middle of the pack side to me means 10th to 8th.

We are not that good.

I can still see us making it to 10th (I had us pegged as finishing in the 10th and 12th range). The fact that there are only 2 wins separating the teams from 7th to 15th provides me with hope that we can make it to 10th, given that we have a relatively easier draw in the 2nd half of the season..

Edited June 3, 2015 by hardtack

[Adam The God 30,221]

It's funny how in previous seasons we've said "forget the results it's about the improvement", but now that it seems like we are making incremental improvement at best people are trying to say "it's all about the results" when clearly our effort, talent, and consistency is still struggling as much as it has.

"Oh but we played the top 4 teams".... So what?! They are in the same competition and league as us and we totally failed to be competitive and put up a reasonable effort. We have shown a knack for totally rolling over when even slightly challenged and lack leadership and spirit.

Baffles me that people can have seen this and still expect us to win 8 games this year.

I think this merely shows the gulf between the top 4 or 5 teams and the rest of the competition. Take those 4 or 5 out and anyone could beat anyone. I still believe we will win between 6-8 games this year.

[old dee 23,787]

I can still see us making it to 10th (I had us pegged as finishing in the 10th and 12th range). The fact that there are only 2 wins separating the teams from 7th to 15th provides me with hope that we can make it to 10th, given that we have a relatively easier draw in the 2nd half of the season..

I hope you are right H

But I have not seen that quality of performance yet.

[Adam The God 30,221]

As nice as the three wins have been, I suspect our percentage is more reflective of where we are at.

The fact that our percentage is more than 10% below St Kilda, despite having the same number of wins, is damning and shows that we still don't have a group which is prepared to work hard enough for long enough.

Regardless of our win / loss record for the remainder of the year, it would be hard to judge this as a successful year if our percentage doesn't finish above 80.

Oh, and despite breaking 100 twice this year, we still have the worst forward line in the competition.

It's got very little to do with the forwardline IMO and everything to do with our C grade midfield. Edited June 3, 2015 by AdamFarr

[What 18,810]

Still haunted by the end of last season

10 straight losses and some of them our worst yet (see GWS at the G)

[Adam The God 30,221]

I think everyone expecting these better results is basing that on us having a change around of form though. Not saying it won't happen, but it's unrealistic to expect 5 or more further wins given our current form.

For me, getting Frost and Kent back, as well as a more ready Viney, is the key to us having a chance of turning our form around.

If Tyson regains fitness and form, that's where our season turns for me.

[stuie 7,374]

If Tyson regains fitness and form, that's where our season turns for me.

Been underwhelming this year for mine.

When fit, I think Kent, Frost, and Viney have been 3 of our most important players (along with McDonald) this year. We're incredibly slow and soft and lack attack without them.

[Adam The God 30,221]

Been underwhelming this year for mine.

When fit, I think Kent, Frost, and Viney have been 3 of our most important players (along with McDonald) this year. We're incredibly slow and soft and lack attack without them.

Agreed we miss Kent, Frost and Viney, but I also agree Tyson has been thoroughly underwhelming this season. He was instrumental in our few wins last season. He won a heap of clearances and kicked goals. If he capture that form again this year, that's where the season will turn, IMO. It'll free up Jones, Vince and even Brayshaw and Vanders. Edited June 3, 2015 by AdamFarr

[stuie 7,374]

Agreed we miss Kent, Frost and Viney, but I also agree Tyson has been thoroughly underwhelming this season. He was instrumental in our few wins last season. He won a heap of clearances and kicked goals. If he capture that form again this year, that's where the season will turn, IMO.

He definitely needs to find his form again, but I can't see him making much of a difference without better support. We have Garlett and Lumumba often running through our midfield, that says a lot to me.

[praha 11,240]

We've been solid against the middling teams and garbage against the good ones.

We are a genuine middle of the pack side on evidence this year. I expect our results in the back half to be better than the front half due to the easier draw, with a bitter disappointment or two along the way.

I'm just not convinced. Our draw to end last year was quite hard -- North twice, Freo, West Coast away, Geelong, Port away, which made up 7 of our last 10 games, but we still buckled against lower teams. Dare I say our capitulations this year have been Neeld-esque, albeit against very tough opposition. We didn't work anywhere near as hard against Port, Sydney and Hawthorn this year than we did last year.

We've probably had one of the hardest draws to start the season. Anyone would think we'd finished top 4. Great work by the AFL scheduling Freo, Sydney, Hawthorn and Port over a five-week period... that said the team hasn't played with great conviction in any of its losses, whereas last year we gave a whelp, even against top teams. I'm just worried that we're going to end up in a spiral. To be frank if they can't get up for this week's game and instead end up getting smashed it'll be very disappointing.

It's comical that we're back here after saying the same stuff before the Footscray game. "If they don't give it a go this week they never will," people said. Fact remains is that we haven't won 2 in a row for 5 years, haven't beaten Collingwood for 10 years, not to mention a few other teams, and so for me, having an "easy" draw does nothing to me.

I want the team to turn a corner, not get garbage-time wins against crap sides. We should expect as much.

Edited June 3, 2015 by praha

[hardtack 10,537]

I hope you are right H

But I have not seen that quality of performance yet.

I half agree and half disagree OD... When we have performed well (Bullies and Toigs) we have performed really well, so they have proven it is not beyond them... even those opening quarters against GWS and Port show that they are capable, but for some reason they lack belief and fall apart when they are not in the familiar surroundings of the MCG. With 7 of our remaining games to be played at the MCG, and if we can break our Etihad hoodoo, we could stand a chance of being a mid-tier finisher.