Statistical Analysis of 2015

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

Round 11 St Kilda

Clearances: 3 (-4.7)

Inside 50s: -16 (-13.73)

UPs: 92 (-9)

CPs: 16 (-0.1)

Margin: -2 (-24.7)

Quarters Won: 1 (17)

Aside from the Inside 50s and the Margin - it was a very good game...

It has to be noted that 415 touches for 42 Inside 50s is around 1 Inside 50 for every 10 touches. The Saints play that ground (and our mistakes) really well and got 1 Inside 50 for every 5 touches.

We spread well, but we were not daring and bold and we feel claustrophobic at Etihad.

Removing Haw, Freo and Syd:

Clearances: (-3.25)

Inside 50s: (-9.8)

UPs: (10.25)

CPs: (4.38)

Margin: (-7.6)

Quarters Won: (16)

RP are we spreading that well vs the League if basing this on UPs? I'm not so sure.

Did some quick numbers.

Average UPs per game for the season to Rnd 11, 2015 are

*League 225

MFC 200

That's a gap of 11% on the rest of the league

Looking at where we were at around the same time last season....

Average UPs per game for the season to Rnd 12, 2014 were

*League 213

MFC 223

We were up 4.6% on the rest of the league at that point.

The only team below us to this point of the year is Gold Coast on 187

Other teams just above us include the Doggies on 201, the Blues on 204, Brisbane on 209 and the Pies on 215

In addition i've quickly looked at the inside 50 stat averages versus approx same time last year as above. Not great on either count

i50s 2015

*League 51

MFC 42

Down 19% vs the League ave.

i50s 2014

*League 48

MFC 42

Down 12%

*exclusive of MFC data

Stats: Courtesy of Footywire

Edited June 16, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[rpfc 28,070]

RP are we spreading that well vs the League if basing this on UPs? I'm not so sure.

Did some quick numbers.

The numbers are above - I have mentioned our lack of spread and run all year.

With my latest post, I meant in the game against St Kilda. We had our most UPs for the year - 276.

However, a great deal of it was sideways and quite a few superfluous handballs.

[deanox 9,768]

Also RN i believe there is a difference between UPs and UP differentials. Would like to see those numbers.

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

Also RN i believe there is a difference between UPs and UP differentials. Would like to see those numbers.

I think you are referring to UP differentials for a match or maybe total UPs for the season deano which is what RP is doing I believe.

I was looking at average UPs for the league vs us and the % difference is effectively the UP differential you are referring to vs the league for the season so far. Coming from a long way back at nearly 20% down vs the average and down approx 25 UPs per match which is the average differential.

It would seem we need to add some serious outside run and players who can bring a full on quality run/spread/carry game, among other issues of course. Anyone criticising H really needs to have another rethink as he is exactly the style of player required to catch the rest of the league in this area. Might not be the greatest but he is certainly "required".

Edited June 17, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[rpfc 28,070]

I think you are referring to UP differentials for a match or maybe total UPs for the season deano which is what RP is doing I believe.

I was looking at average UPs for the league vs us and the % difference is effectively the UP differential you are referring to vs the league for the season so far. Coming from a long way back at nearly 20% down vs the average and down approx 25 UPs per match which is the average differential.

It would seem we need to add some serious outside run and players who can bring a full on quality run/spread/carry game, among other issues of course. Anyone criticising H really needs to have another rethink as he is exactly the style of player required to catch the rest of the league in this area. Might not be the greatest but he is certainly "required".

I am doing UP differentials for each game because you can only beat who you are competing against and also the weather may make a difference if it is wet.

There is little doubt we don't have enough mental fortitude to spread and be bold and get 'cheap footy' - both game differential and average UPs illustrate that.

[Chris 2,892]

I am doing UP differentials for each game because you can only beat who you are competing against and also the weather may make a difference if it is wet.

There is little doubt we don't have enough mental fortitude to spread and be bold and get 'cheap footy' - both game differential and average UPs illustrate that.

Should probably be percentage of difference in UP's that is used. This would remove the variability caused by weather or congested games etc that you have tried to remove with only looking at differentials, not just raw numbers.

Having 20 more UP's means very little if it is 500 to 520, where as 20 difference is huge if it is 30 to 50. Expressed as a percentage gives a far more accurate measure of the true difference.

[rpfc 28,070]

Should probably be percentage of difference in UP's that is used. This would remove the variability caused by weather or congested games etc that you have tried to remove with only looking at differentials, not just raw numbers.

Having 20 more UP's means very little if it is 500 to 520, where as 20 difference is huge if it is 30 to 50. Expressed as a percentage gives a far more accurate measure of the true difference.

Yes, it would. But if you are talking about the 'average percentage of the UP differential from each game' - you might lose a number of people...

[Chris 2,892]

Yes, it would. But if you are talking about the 'average percentage of the UP differential from each game' - you might lose a number of people...

Very true, unfortunately.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Yes, it would. But if you are talking about the 'average percentage of the UP differential from each game' - you might lose a number of people...

I heard David King talk about The Pressure Gauge like it was the bloody theory of relativity, so go all out, the more numbers the better.

[rpfc 28,070]

I heard David King talk about The Pressure Gauge like it was the bloody theory of relativity, so go all out, the more numbers the better.

I heard that too and he actually said before he tried to explain it - "it's too difficult to explain in a short space of time" - before trying to explain it in 30 secs.

I would guess that only diehard footy fans who can also stomach David King would give a flying - and that is a small segment of the population...

[Demon3 2,541]

would be interested in inside 50 targets.. as Hogan with 22 and Garlett with 21 Goals are way out in front then scarily its ben Newton with 7 goals is our next best. we need to find other goal kickers..

[Its Time for Another 4,088]

would be interested in inside 50 targets.. as Hogan with 22 and Garlett with 21 Goals are way out in front then scarily its ben Newton with 7 goals is our next best. we need to find other goal kickers..

Ouch, that's ugly.

[titan_uranus 24,848]

I heard that too and he actually said before he tried to explain it - "it's too difficult to explain in a short space of time" - before trying to explain it in 30 secs.

I would guess that only diehard footy fans who can also stomach David King would give a flying - and that is a small segment of the population...

He was asked 'what's the pressure gauge', he said 'It's really simple actually, it's just a measure of seven different statistics, it's quite complex how they're brought together...' or words to that hilariously ridiculous effect.

He's one of the biggest flogs in the AFL.

[rpfc 28,070]

Clearances: 13 (-3.25)

Inside 50s: -14 (-13.75)

UPs: 27 (-6)

CPs: 27 (2.2)

Margin: 24 (-20.67)

Quarters Won: 3 (20)

Without Haw, Freo, and Syd:

Clearances: -1.4

Inside 50s: -10.3

UPs: 12.1

CPs: 6.9

Margin: -4.1

Quarters Won: 19

[Bitter but optimistic 22,120]

I'm no statistician but here are some figures from today's Age to ponder.

Melbourne after 12 rounds

2014 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.5

2015 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.3

[Moneider96 1,045]

I'm no statistician but here are some figures from today's Age to ponder.

Melbourne after 12 rounds

2014 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.5

2015 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.3

I remember last year we had a really good draw at the start. This year it has been the opposite. Hence, why it looks like we haven't improved at all.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I remember last year we had a really good draw at the start. This year it has been the opposite. Hence, why it looks like we haven't improved at all.

exactly , we won by a point then lost the last 9 in 2014

in 2015 we will snag 5 or 6 of the last 10 for mine

[Seraph 1,823]

I'm no statistician but here are some figures from today's Age to ponder.

Melbourne after 12 rounds

2014 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.5

2015 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.3

First 9 games last year:

St Kilda - Away

WCE - Home

GWS - Away

Carlton - Home

Gold Coast - Home

Sydney - Home

Adelaide - Away

Bulldogs - Home

Richmond - Home/Away

Port - Away

Collingwood - Home

Essendon - Home/Away

This year:

Gold Coast - Home

GWS - Away

Adelaide - Away

Richmond - Home/Away

Freo - Home

Swans - Home

Hawthorn - Home/Away

Bulldogs - Home

Port - Away

Collingwood - Home

St Kilda - Away

Geelong - Away

The first half of this year has no doubt been harder than 2014.

[monoccular 17,345]

would be interested in inside 50 targets.. as Hogan with 22 and Garlett with 21 Goals are way out in front then scarily its ben Newton with 7 goals is our next best. we need to find other goal kickers..

Just love statistics. We kicked our highest score for the year without Hogan. Does that say we don't need him ?? :-)))

I'm no statistician but here are some figures from today's Age to ponder.

Melbourne after 12 rounds

2014 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.5

2015 win/loss 4-8 percentage 78.3

Just love statistics. "Proves" that we are worse this year than last ;-)))

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,283]

We are a long way ahead of last season.

In the games we won last year we pretty much fell over the line in a number of them. This season we have had some comprehensive wins.

We've still had a few bad games obviously but if you can't see the improvement you're blind!

[nutbean 8,838]

I don't need stats to suggest that the last three weeks we have looked much better because Gawn is winning taps and healthy percentage of them are to advantage.

Viney back in has made a huge difference and Vince has taken his game to AA levels and Jones keeps being Jones. ( Also we have another nice mid in Brayshaw who doesn't mind the odd clearance either)

It makes such a difference when our midfield is not getting clobbered week in and week out.

[rpfc 28,070]

I don't need stats to suggest that the last three weeks we have looked much better because Gawn is winning taps and healthy percentage of them are to advantage.

Viney back in has made a huge difference and Vince has taken his game to AA levels and Jones keeps being Jones. ( Also we have another nice mid in Brayshaw who doesn't mind the odd clearance either)

It makes such a difference when our midfield is not getting clobbered week in and week out.

Now I know you don't need stats to suggest the last three weeks have been better but...

In the first 9 games we were -59 in clearances compared to our opponent - winning the clearances only once (Bulldogs).

For perspective - we finished 2014 approx. -106 in clearances. In 2013 we finished approx. -212.

In the past three games we have been +20 in clearances, winning each time.

[rpfc 28,070]

Uncontested possies first 9 weeks: -192 compared to our opponent (-181 of that against Freo, Syd, and Haw).

Uncontested possies last 3 weeks: +120 (+92 of those against the Saints) and winning each time.

For interest:

Contested possies first 9 weeks: -13 (-36 against Freo, Syd and Haw).

Contested possies last 3 weeks: +39 (-4 against the Pies who are an excellent CP side)

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

Uncontested possies first 9 weeks: -192 compared to our opponent (-181 of that against Freo, Syd, and Haw).

Uncontested possies last 3 weeks: +120 (+92 of those against the Saints) and winning each time.

For interest:

Contested possies first 9 weeks: -13 (-36 against Freo, Syd and Haw).

Contested possies last 3 weeks: +39 (-4 against the Pies who are an excellent CP side)

Nice work RP

I've done the last 3 weeks CPs & Ups vs League averages just for interest's sake

MFC vs League Ave (last 3 rounds)

CPs

Ave 147 / 137 (+10)

Differential +7.0%

Ranked 3rd in the league over the last 3 rounds.

Top 2 - The Pies (1st) & Power

Bottom 3 - GWS (16), Saints (17) & the Lions (18)

UPs

Ave 232 / 221

Differential +4.75%

Ranked 7th in the league.

Top 3 - Sydney (1st), Essendrug & the Blues

Bottom 3 - Crows, Doggies, GCS

As RP has already stated the outcome on these stats is very much dependant on who you are playing in the 3 rounds (or each round as the case may be). I will update this after another 2 rounds which will hopefully give us a bit more meaningful indicator of recent form in these 2 areas. Note that some teams only have 2 rounds of data included from the last 3 rounds due to the bye. I have still used an average for fair comparison.

Stats: Courtesy of Footywire

Edited June 24, 2015 by Rusty Nails

[rpfc 28,070]

WCE

Clearances: -3

Inside 50s: -8

UPs: -38

CPs: -4

Margin: -54

QW: 1

Ess (averages to date in brackets)

Clearances: 5 (-2.6)

Inside 50s: 13 (-11.4)

UPs: -47 (-11.2)

CPs: 11 (+2.4)

Margin: -9 (-22.2)

QW: 2 (23)

2014 Melbourne

Clearances: -4.8

Inside 50s: -11.6

UPs: -6.5

CPs: -1.5

Margin: -28.1

QW: 30

With the interest being in how we have not improved - here are the raw numbers from the differentials from last year. UPs have gone down as you can see, however, WCE, Haw, Syd, and Freo accounts for 139.5% of those numbers (in layman's terms - we would be in positive territory if you removed those four games). That is not to say Roos doesn't need to improve that area - he does, we still seem anaemic and unwilling to run and be bold.