Which Clubs will Fall?

[Maldonboy38 6,395]

Carlton - they are looking like us under Bailey. The club is an absolute shambles.

Western Bulldogs - you can't do that to senior players, the coach, and then also let go an under-performing CEO without embracing a whole heap of pain

Geelong - a considerable fall this year. Their next crop of young players are of average ability, yet they have to play some of them.

Adelaide - misguided sacking of previous coach, poor choice of skipper, new coach, a loosely dedicated superstar.

For the life of me I have no idea where WCE will finish - can't rate them at all.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,083]

I was going to say the 9 iron and the putter until I saw the first few posts ...

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

Carlton the big Slider.

Hawks Swans Port Pies top 4

Freo North Cats GCS 5 - 8

Tigers 9 (of course)

WCE Crows Dees Lions 10-13

Dons GWS Doggies 14 - 16

Saints Blues 17 & 18

I don't think the top 8 will alter too much.

The bottom 10 is anyone's guess.

There isn't much between them on any given day.

[HEMLOCK 39]

I'm thinking 6 to max 8 wins

[titan_uranus 24,984]

Carlton has a rubbish list, I don't see them genuinely threatening the 8.

Richmond's list has overperformed two years in a row; I don't rate it but if they can do it two years in a row why not a third I guess.

Collingwood, Adelaide and West Coast are all hard to read, not sure where they end up.

Brisbane and Gold Coast climb IMO. Both are better than their 2014 versions.

Hawthorn, Port, Sydney and Fremantle continue to be the premier sides in the competition. Geelong's still a top 8 side but I don't think they can realistically win the flag. North will be top 8 again as well I think.

At the other end, the only club I am confident, before the year starts, of us being better than is St Kilda. In saying that, I think we have the potential to finish in front of the Dogs, GWS and Carlton, and maybe some of Collingwood/Adelaide/WC/Richmond if their years go as bad as is possible for them.

As for Essendon, who the hell knows. If you take the off-field stuff out of the equation and just look at their on-field capability I think they're a good finals-bound side. But with the off-field stuff in play, it's a totally different story.

[DubDee 25,739]

I don't see GWS improving much. Lost Patton and Boyd. Plowman out again so not many good key backs. Deep through the midfield but I suspect a few lads will be looking to leave at years end. I reckon we will finish above them.

I see us above gws Carlton, dogs, dons, west coast, st kilda finish around 12th

West coast have lost Kerr cox embley waters and now b&f Mckenzie. Not a good midfield

[Pennant St Dee 13,151]

Top 8 Certainties

Hawks - they are going to go close again but they have been blessed with a good run of non-season ending injuries to their absolute stars and game changers over 3 years

Port - Ryder final piece in the jigsaw they are probably the most powerful side in the AFL when it comes to breaking quickly and with run to beat the zone, which is why they match up so well on the Hawks

Swans - still a hard nosed gun side, time for some changes in the next year or two with a few KPD's but Buddy, midfield rotations, SCG and desire after 2014 has them right up there again

Freo - they are a machine yes Pav, Sandi, Mcpharlin & Johnson are all getting on but this side just gets the job done, will be top 8 just not sure if they will make the Top 4

Top 8 contenders and this is done without looking at or taking into account the draw

Cats - been expecting them to fall for a while Kardinia is still a massive bonus for wins in the bag and Hawkins/Clarke will cause headaches IMO can't win it but with a good run could cause some headaches in September or sides with Top 4 aspirations

Adelaide - been poor for the last two years but still a lot of midfield depth, Brad Crouch is an absolute gun and IMO would be a target over Dangerfield given age and pricetag, a lot depends on big Tex firing and Talia/Jacobs staying fit if all goes well join Cats, Tigers, Freo and North in a shake up for top 4

Richmond - whilst they had a fairly easy run home lats season they still showed the importance of Rance, Deledio and Maric staying fit they are hard to pick as a slider or climber but have the potential to put a good run together and give the 4 a shake

North - injuries to key players in the pre-season is a concern as is their defensive weaknesses, like the Tigers they are hard to judge but also potentially top 4 contender if all goes well

Gold Coast - showed a lot of improvement last season and another preseason into an already talented midfield not to mention a few good additions to the squad going to be there when the whips are cracking like last season and less reliant on Ablett, but he is still going to have a big say in their fortunes for the year

Pies - any side who possesses Pendlebury, Swan and Sidebottom running through the middle is going to have some wins and who knows what some of the high draft picks over the last few years produce, but the Pies have a lot of if's -Reid and Brown standing up as KPD'S for the year, White or another giving Cloke a chop out and Grundy rediscovering 2013 form. Greenwood is a good addition IMO not top 4 contenders and need a dream run to make the 8 but it's a possibility

Lions - they have the midfield and the ruck stocks they are a very long shot need to find key big men at both ends to have any chance

The rest

Bombers - don't care what they are saying in the media there has got to be some disharmony with their list and we still have no idea what the outcome of ASADA will be

Meth Coast - they have a dream draw but Mckenzie is a massive loss best defender of 2014 and robbed of a AA birth by Rance putting 10 decent games together, will win games at home and continue to be flat track bullies, but Glass and Mckenzie out of their defence is huge sliders for mine

Carlton - don't see the massive slide because they are coming in better fitness wise then last season, their coach will make sure they tough out some wins, can't make the 8 though IMO

Doggies - Macrae and Bontempelli are going to be very good players for a long time, Stringer is also going to be a good player, Roughead good potential but still a fair way off, Boyd a big unknown Libba, Griffen and Cooney gone from the midfield, Boyd a year older, long season ahead for mine

Saints - could see improvement in their young players but still to reliant on their veterans like the Dogs see a long season ahead

Giants - hard to pick for a few reasons, fit Mummy makes a huge difference not sure where he is at, Cameron can he get back to what he showed 2013, they have an abundance of absolute young guns through the middle but where are they at happy to stay and build a side or craving to head back to Victoria. Could stay where they are or could fall back.

which leaves us

I think we will see improvement, there were good signs last year but we can't sit on our laurels because very few teams fall backwards and you need to continually improve or it will be 2011 all over again. 8 wins is my minimal expectation with a good run with injury, then again if Hoges plays to his potential and some 2nd tier players how great improvement you could see us with a mathmatical chance of making the 8 for a period of time.

We know from experience there will definitely be an unexpected bolter and slider, Doggies and Meth Coast injuries to vital cogs has already shown how much of an impact luck can have. Then there is the unknown like last seasons off field issues between Sando and the Crows which could occur at another club. I have no idea but can't wait for Round 1 and teh season ahead

[leucopogon 1,519]

This from my season prediction done before the New Year, haven't had a recent look at it.

Team Wins Losses Draws % Pts

Port 18 3 1 132.23 74

Haw 17 5 0 133.33 68

North 17 5 0 116.48 68

Syd 16 6 0 124.85 64

Frem 16 6 0 124.03 64

GCS 14 7 1 103.76 58

Geel 13 9 0 104.62 52

Rich 13 9 0 103.52 52

---------------------------------------------------------

WCE 11 11 0 109.27 44

Bris 11 11 0 99.19 44

GWS 9 13 0 97.55 36

Melb 9 13 0 83.82 36

Coll 8 13 1 95.84 34

Adel 8 14 0 93.32 32

Ess 6 16 0 84.86 24

WB 5 16 1 77.07 22

Carl 2 19 1 73.66 10

StK 2 19 1 65.44 10

Have us with a shocking start (0 wins 7 losses) but with a very optimistically strong finish to the year hopefully

wins predicted against:

Bulldogs (Rd 8)

Collingwood (Rd 10)

St. Kilda (Rd 11)

Essendon (Rd 15)

Brisbane (Rd 16)

St. Kilda (Rd 17)

Bulldogs (Rd 20)

Carlton (Rd 21)

GWS (Rd 23)

Edited March 2, 2015 by leucopogon

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,710]

This from my season prediction done before the New Year, haven't had a recent look at it.

Team Wins Losses Draws % Pts

Port 18 3 1 132.23 74

Haw 17 5 0 133.33 68

North 17 5 0 116.48 68

Syd 16 6 0 124.85 64

Frem 16 6 0 124.03 64

GCS 14 7 1 103.76 58

Geel 13 9 0 104.62 52

Rich 13 9 0 103.52 52

---------------------------------------------------------

WCE 11 11 0 109.27 44

Bris 11 11 0 99.19 44

GWS 9 13 0 97.55 36

Melb 9 13 0 83.82 36

Coll 8 13 1 95.84 34

Adel 8 14 0 93.32 32

Ess 6 16 0 84.86 24

WB 5 16 1 77.07 22

Carl 2 19 1 73.66 10

StK 2 19 1 65.44 10

Have us with a shocking start (0 wins 7 losses) but with a very optimistically strong finish to the year hopefully

wins predicted against:

Bulldogs (Rd 8)

Collingwood (Rd 10)

St. Kilda (Rd 11)

Essendon (Rd 15)

Brisbane (Rd 16)

St. Kilda (Rd 17)

Bulldogs (Rd 20)

Carlton (Rd 21)

GWS (Rd 23)

As a matter of interest, are those percentages 'real'? That is, did you predict a score for every game or are they uncalculated predictions (in which case I admire your bravado in going to two decimal places.)

PS: for those of you wondering what the difference is between 'precision' and 'accuracy', these percentages are a good example.

[Jesse Christ 2,884]

0 and 7 will be catastrophic!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

0 and 7 will be catastrophic!

It's a deadset chance though unfortunately. I think we are a show for round 1 based on how close we took them for the same fixture last year - BUT it looks like we're going to be pretty badly undermanned. The other chance is the tigers, Friday night round 4 - we beat them last year. We also beat the crows at home but gee can lightning strike twice? Rds 5/6/7 is 3 clubs who finished top4 in the H+A last year. That should be fun.

[CBDees 3,167]

Regarding the heroic predictions above, whilst I generally agree with the ladder, l don't think it impossible for us to finish higher or even sneak into the eight for the following reasons:

1) I think that we will finish ahead of GWS as we have a better forward and backline than they have (which should ensure a better %);

2) I think that we are capable of beating Richmond; and

3) I suspect we will also beat at least one of the other teams that you have nominated ahead of us on your ladder (Adelaide?).

Bring on the 2015 season!

[P-man 13,366]

Not buying into the Brisbane hype just yet. Midfield has come together nicely but still some question marks at either end of the ground. They will however improve and rise for certain.

Gold Coast will finish in the eight and are a serious chance of finishng top four.

Saints should be bottom four, but they had no less than 40 injuries last season with key players like Sam Fisher returning this year. A better injury run and I wouldn't rule them out from causing more than a few upsets.

Carlton should slide with a list that is pretty ordinary on paper. A lot of faith being placed in Liam Jones of all people. Bottom four is a real possibility.

Richmond will slip outside of the eight. They seem to have finally realised that topping up with hacks from other teams is not a recipe for success, but the fruits of that lesson will take a while to show.

Large unknowns for me are Adelaide and to a lesser extent Collingwood.

The only team I'm certain will fall is the Dogs who are in for a year of pain. It was already going to be tough before they lost their best player. Spoon favourites for mine, which for a club of their size is going to be a tough pill. They should be fine in the long run though.

Essendon will hopefully finish last. Where they belong.

[leucopogon 1,519]

As a matter of interest, are those percentages 'real'? That is, did you predict a score for every game or are they uncalculated predictions (in which case I admire your bravado in going to two decimal places.)

PS: for those of you wondering what the difference is between 'precision' and 'accuracy', these percentages are a good example.

Yes, I predicted a score for every game of every round. The lengths you go to in December for your footy fix hey?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Essendon will hopefully finish last. Where they belong.

Would be lovely wouldn't it

[daisycutter 29,606]

Would be lovely wouldn't it