The First Half Draw

[Jaded No More 68,921]

Of course we can beat a top 5 team . We expect to be a top 5 team .

In our wet dreams maybe.

I'll be thankful to make the 8 this year. Top 5 is just wishful thinking.

[Hells Gates 505]

In relation to our drafting or the opinion of the poster because I believe that he is right. We still need another classy midfielder and if results this year improve watch out Scott Pendlebury........ I know its a big call but with Green more than likely on his last year and cloggers like Spencer and Dunn moving on I think that a really big trade move will again be on the cards because of large cap room. Gee i love it when speculation surrounds opposition players.....

Totally agree with you mate. Our early draft picks just have not worked out for us.. Its either bad luck or bad recruiting, I'd say the latter.

Epic fail was to the drafting, I would never belittle a poster.

Edited February 27, 2012 by Hells Gates

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

I came up with 6. I will be happy with 4 though. We would still be a chance for the 8 with 4-7 going into round 12 based on the fixture for the second half.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

This is our best case scenario imo

Not to state the obvious, but 11-0 would be our "best case scenario"

Edited February 27, 2012 by Good Times Grimes

[cowboy_from_hell 2,390]

cowboy_from_hell, on 27 February 2012 - 07:26 PM, said:

I have us at 2 wins beating brisbane and the doggies. It's been a great off season but the new game plan will take plenty of time and there is no way we can realistically say that we can beat a top 5 team in carlton. Tigers game is a coin flip, bombers game not so much if they have a full list and sydney is always going to be a hard ask.

bing181, on 27 February 2012 - 09:16 PM, said:

I just think it's going to take longer to turn the ship around than what people are imagining. Just seeing Clark run in and spoil Watts, or those easy goals over the back to GC as a result of getting the structures and press wrong - sure, like many, I believe that we have the cattle to start moving forward. But they need to learn to play together - which is going to take time.

People talk about Richmond's midfield - those guys are starting to have a few seasons together, and under the same coach.

2 wins for me, but then the second half of the season should start to see things come together ... as long as we don't get any/many injuries to key players.

If you think like this you have a very low view of our side we have 16 top 20 draft picks along with some really good rookies we should really be looking to stop thinking like we are along way off or less than any side between 4th and 8th we have alot of talent and now the best football department in the game that will finally bring structure and dare i say it a strong culture with great young men as leaders i can see why you can think like that but teams like the bulldogs and saints have had there chance its our time to shine and as for the tigers we need to put them were they belong below us. Our rise is starting in 2012 top 8 and nothing less jump on board the glory train boys and girls. THE DEMONS ARE HUNGRY............cant wait First course is roast magpie Main course is fried swan wings and for dessert blues berry ice cream and dont forget to scully your giant beer.

P.S scully can pick up the tab when your done

Big Jim I love the enthusiasm and I share it with you. I don't have a low view of the club but it wasn't too long ago we lost our last game to a helpless port adelaide and 2011 was supposed to be the year the dee's made it back to the 8. I am quietly confident we will improve but not this quick. These first half wins against richmond, Carlton, Sydney and St.Kilda will have to come from the improvement of the likes of Nicholson,Bennell,Blease,Bail and Morton. I can't see us adapting to the game plan and doing it well early on and I don't think the younger players have improved so much so quickly that the likes of Carlton and Sydney in Sydney are going to be wins for us. I'm just a realist. Not trying to be negative at all.

[rpfc 28,440]

It won't be easy, but i refuse to mark it as an automatic loss.

As I said, this thread has ulterior motives.

It isn't about 'each game on its merits' it is about us subconciously ranking our team against others.

We feel, so far in this poll, that we have moved past WB and St K with wins over Ess, BL, and Richmond.

We also feel that Carlton are far better than we are, that isn't to say we give up hope of a win, but that we are not at their level yet.

And don't compare rebuilds - they got Judd to kick off their rebuild, we did not...

[old55 23,593]

Opposition supporters doing the reverse exercise would have as at 1-11 I think. We'll start favourite against Brisbane because it's at the MCG, Richmond will fancy their chances against us in R3 with us off the back of the trip to Perth and a likely solid defeat. Depending on how the clubs are travelling we may start about even with the Dogs and Dons. I gave us the benefit in all these games and got 4 wins but I can easily see a scenario where it's 2.or less wins

[BIG JIM 508]

Big Jim I love the enthusiasm and I share it with you. I don't have a low view of the club but it wasn't too long ago we lost our last game to a helpless port adelaide and 2011 was supposed to be the year the dee's made it back to the 8. I am quietly confident we will improve but not this quick. These first half wins against richmond, Carlton, Sydney and St.Kilda will have to come from the improvement of the likes of Nicholson,Bennell,Blease,Bail and Morton. I can't see us adapting to the game plan and doing it well early on and I don't think the younger players have improved so much so quickly that the likes of Carlton and Sydney in Sydney are going to be wins for us. I'm just a realist. Not trying to be negative at all.

Yes i know mate and we could be at 2 wins but i really dont think we will be as neeld seems like he has a group trying to really impress him and i just think this year could be the one we start to build some strong respect back from the rest of the comp.That game with port was a very bad effort and our season really was in meltdown but in the last 6 months we have seen some strong change to the club and we have finally got a big man down forward which will help us alot.

[Disco Demons 92]

Going on past history I put us down for 3 wins...In four years we have only managed to beat Tigers and Bombers in Melbourne...plus a few interstate teams...

Brisbane at the G WIN

WCE in Perth Loss

Tigers at the G Win

Bulldogs at the G Loss

Saints at the G Loss

Geelong in Mordor Loss

Hawthorn at the G Loss

Sydney in Sydney Loss

Carlton at the G Loss

Essendon at the G Win

Collingwood at the G Loss

Is anyone able to fault my logic?

Edited February 27, 2012 by disco_demon

[Hells Gates 505]

Going on past history I put us down for 2 wins...In four years we have only managed to beat Tigers and Bombers in Melbourne...plus a few interstate teams...

Brisbane at the G WIN

WCE in Perth Loss

Tigers at the G Win

Bulldogs at the G Loss

Saints at the G Loss

Geelong in Mordor Loss

Hawthorn at the G Loss

Sydney in Sydney Loss

Carlton at the G Loss

Essendon at the G Win

Collingwood at the G Loss

Is anyone able to fault my logic?

So why 3 when u said 2???

[old55 23,593]

It's quite possible we could go 2-9 or 3-8 and still have a had a good start to the year, it depends on the nature of those losses.

[Disco Demons 92]

So why 3 when u said 2???

good pickup! cheers!

[robbiefrom13 887]

hmm. You can take the long view of this, too.

Last year we under-achieved compared to our form at the end of 2010, and there were reasons for that under-achieving - key injuries, increasing paralysis of the coaching, off-field unrest, ineffective on-field leadership, Scullyoma eating away at us untreated for the whole year. Of course we fell in a heap...

You can now delete virtually all of those things.

Further, we have a stronger list overall and a year's more growth into the young players, plus entirely revamped off-field structures, coaching and training. Even before the season kicks off, we are clearly in a very different space from the mess of 2011.

I say we will do a lot better than is obvious yet. Get ready to be surprised. Think Eagles 2011. Six out of eleven, and then look out!

[BIG JIM 508]

Going on past history I put us down for 3 wins...In four years we have only managed to beat Tigers and Bombers in Melbourne...plus a few interstate teams...

Brisbane at the G WIN

WCE in Perth Loss

Tigers at the G Win

Bulldogs at the G Loss

Saints at the G Loss

Geelong in Mordor Loss

Hawthorn at the G Loss

Sydney in Sydney Loss

Carlton at the G Loss

Essendon at the G Win

Collingwood at the G Loss

Is anyone able to fault my logic?

Yes your logic is wrong in my view Bulldogs are going down not up and the saint have also had there chance and sydney never give it to us last 2 games with the swans was a draw and the other we smash them. But everyone has there own view

[Arrow 1,257]

I'd be happy with 4 wins and absolutely stoked if we could get 5.

We are similar to North Melbourne in that we in the past have not been able to even compete with the top teams contrary to a Richmond who has at least had an upset in the past. If you look at last year and say our best win was Essendons it's pretty [censored] poor.

In short give me 4-7 at the half way point and I'll be absolutely content we'll finish off like a house on fire.

[Disco Demons 92]

Yes your logic is wrong in my view Bulldogs are going down not up and the saint have also had there chance and sydney never give it to us last 2 games with the swans was a draw and the other we smash them. But everyone has there own view

why not add in the Pies then? We lost by a point and had a draw.

[H_T 3,047]

Thanks for the range of opinions and reasons for our start to the season

I am certainly hoping that we can do much better than 2 wins, but my underlying reason for my original post was that we shouldn't become negative if it is a slow start to the year - the journey to the top is a long one with a lot of learning along the way - just look at any of the recent successful teams.

Indeed Hardnut.

And until such time when we have quality mids holding our own against quality opposition, we will be making up the numbers.

[Its Time for Another 4,223]

I won't be judging progress in the first 11 rounds on wins and losses. I'll be judging it on the execution of a game plan and an incremental improvement in the individual players performances. If that means no more than 2 wins in the first 11 games I won't be freaking out. They already showed promising signs of structures and game plans on the weekend and it is all they are talking about in interviews now. It's the new mantra .

St Kilda under new coach Ross Lyon is a bit of a benchmark for me on what to expect. He inherited a team that was cherry ripe and having just played in a couple of Prelim's but it took it 3/4's of a season to adapt to his new game plan. They were aweful early in his first season.

The D's are still at the very early stages of developing a young squad. More so than any other team other than the two new teams and possibly the Lions. The Tigers are clearly further along on an actual timeline of development, for instance Riewoldt and the midfielders. I'm confident we will be better but we are at a different stage of development to nearly all other teams. Patience is required. It's possible St Kilda will go backwards this year with all the coaching upheavel etc but its hard to see any other teams going backwards. So I don't see why people are so confident about beating so many teams above us on last year's ladder. It will happen but I will be surprised if it happens in the first 11 rounds while they are getting used to the new regime.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I won't be judging progress in the first 11 rounds on wins and losses. I'll be judging it on the execution of a game plan and an incremental improvement in the individual players performances. If that means no more than 2 wins in the first 11 games I won't be freaking out. They already showed promising signs of structures and game plans on the weekend and it is all they are talking about in interviews now. It's the new mantra .

St Kilda under new coach Ross Lyon is a bit of a benchmark for me on what to expect. He inherited a team that was cherry ripe and having just played in a couple of Prelim's but it took it 3/4's of a season to adapt to his new game plan. They were aweful early in his first season.

The D's are still at the very early stages of developing a young squad. More so than any other team other than the two new teams and possibly the Lions. The Tigers are clearly further along on an actual timeline of development, for instance Riewoldt and the midfielders. I'm confident we will be better but we are at a different stage of development to nearly all other teams. Patience is required. It's possible St Kilda will go backwards this year with all the coaching upheavel etc but its hard to see any other teams going backwards. So I don't see why people are so confident about beating so many teams above us on last year's ladder. It will happen but I will be surprised if it happens in the first 11 rounds while they are getting used to the new regime.

Good post Its Time. If anything it took the Saints far longer to gel to Lyons plan. They bombed in the EF under Thomas in 2006 and missed the finals in their first year under Lyon. And they were further along the development path than MFC. There are a few supporters who will be disappointed with their over the top expectations this year. Nice if it happens but there is a good chance its going to be a tough year as the players mature and adjust to a new coach. I expect the 2nd half of the draw to be better than the 1st half for MFC.

[rpfc 28,440]

I won't be judging progress in the first 11 rounds on wins and losses. I'll be judging it on the execution of a game plan and an incremental improvement in the individual players performances. If that means no more than 2 wins in the first 11 games I won't be freaking out. They already showed promising signs of structures and game plans on the weekend and it is all they are talking about in interviews now. It's the new mantra .

That's a good attitude.

Others better get ready for some hurt in the first half the season.

We are not a good team, and we are learning a new way, and we are giving blokes chances in new roles: Clark, Sellar, Howe, Magner, Bate, Couch, Green, Davey, Nicholson, Blease, and Grimes (I hope) and some of these are going to fail and some of the time the team is going to fail too.

[H_T 3,047]

Would be somewhat therapeutic if the game day thread contributors could read this thread before the season starts.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Would be somewhat therapeutic if the game day thread contributors could read this thread before the season starts.

Remember there are "NO MORE EXCUSES".

[The Chazz 4,077]

Remember there are "NO MORE EXCUSES".

Is that a shot at me RR? If so, perhaps you should move on? If not, I apologise.

Anyway, I believe we are capable of 4 wins - Brisbane, Richmond, Sydney and Essendon. The Richmond game doesn't sit well with me - I don't think it's a game that we can pen in at this stage. On the other hand, I picked a loss against the Bulldogs and Saints, I think these 2 games are winnable, I just didn't pick us!

What I want to see in 2012 are victories against sides that we are, or should be, better than. We ARE better than Brisbane, Port Adelaide, GWS and Gold Coast, we SHOULD be better than Richmond, North and the Western Bulldogs (Hall always seemed to be the difference between us and them), and we should bloody near be better than Sydeny, St Kilda, Essendon and Freo/Adelaide at the G. Based on that theory, and given our entire draw, we play those teams/scnearios 16 times. If we can win 12 of those 16, as well as knocking off a "big scalp" like West Coast at the G, or maybe even Carlton in one game, 12-14 wins should be the expectation of 2012.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Apology accepted Billy.

[Its Time for Another 4,223]

Is that a shot at me RR? If so, perhaps you should move on? If not, I apologise.

Anyway, I believe we are capable of 4 wins - Brisbane, Richmond, Sydney and Essendon. The Richmond game doesn't sit well with me - I don't think it's a game that we can pen in at this stage. On the other hand, I picked a loss against the Bulldogs and Saints, I think these 2 games are winnable, I just didn't pick us!

What I want to see in 2012 are victories against sides that we are, or should be, better than. We ARE better than Brisbane, Port Adelaide, GWS and Gold Coast, we SHOULD be better than Richmond, North and the Western Bulldogs (Hall always seemed to be the difference between us and them), and we should bloody near be better than Sydeny, St Kilda, Essendon and Freo/Adelaide at the G. Based on that theory, and given our entire draw, we play those teams/scnearios 16 times. If we can win 12 of those 16, as well as knocking off a "big scalp" like West Coast at the G, or maybe even Carlton in one game, 12-14 wins should be the expectation of 2012.

I live in Sydney and go to a few Swans games. It always amazes me how low people's opinion is of the Swans. They have recruited very well over the past couple of years and have several out and out champions such as Goodes and O'Keefe, yet people still think they are a walk over. Don't know why you think we're going to beat them especially in Sydney where we haven't played for so many years. Don't know why so many posters think we should already be better than Essendon who are several years ahead of us in development. Not to say on any given day we couldn't give it a shake but I wouldn't pencil it in.