2012 Draw snippets

[Sir Why You Little 36,753]

I think that 45 is saying that it doesn't give our next opponent a distinct advantage because the history hasn't shown that.

Well having lived up there for a long stint in the Kimberleys i am giving my own personal view....i think it would definately put us at a disadvantage...Might even be 2 weeks later, but it must fatigue Muscle tissue to some degree.

[Sir Why You Little 36,753]

WYL - they don't play there because they can get 30k to a game against PA. And the Hawks play those games in Tassie, the Tigers in (oh noes) Darwin and Cairns. We are not in the position to spurn Darwin's money.

I understand that...and for it we pay in performance post.

[45HG 1,539]

So.

You're guessing. Based on personal experience.

I'm giving you a concrete statistical report (done in about 5 minutes, you can check it if you like but something tells me you won't). Based on the history of AFL teams playing in Darwin.

The 5 teams that have played finals in the same year as playing in Darwin all won the next week. 5-0. One of them even went on to win a flag.

By all means, ignore it.

[Sir Why You Little 36,753]

So.

You're guessing. Based on personal experience.

I'm giving you a concrete statistical report. Based on the history of AFL teams playing in Darwin.

By all means, ignore it.

Guessing.....No i am not, i know how quickly i fatigued up there, as beautiful as it was...

Nah, i won't ignore it but i will be watching closely....Because if Eddiewood was forced to play up there he would scream Blue Murder, and i wouldn't blame him.

Do you know how much a person sweats up there?? Night or Day-it is incredible seriously..

Edited October 20, 2011 by why you little

[45HG 1,539]

I am not ignoring it at all...

Yes. You are.

[45HG 1,539]

Do you know how much a person sweats up there?? Night or Day-it is incredible seriously..

And yet the 5 good teams that have played up there have all managed a win the next week.

[Sir Why You Little 36,753]

Yes. You are.

No i am not ignoring it, because it must be a disadvantage to travel all that way & Back whilst losing all that fluid in an extreme physical sport....whether that be the next week or a flow on..

I don't remember the MFC setting the Football world on fire after playing PA in 2011.

[45HG 1,539]

I don't remember the MFC setting the Football world on fire after playing PA in 2011.

But geez we were great the round before travelling across the city to play the Bulldogs...

Honestly, how can you say that you aren't ignoring those stats when you haven't mentioned them once and have only responded with generalised personal tales about how hot it is.

[Sir Why You Little 36,753]

But geez we were great the round before travelling across the city to play the Bulldogs...

Honestly, how can you say that you aren't ignoring those stats when you haven't mentioned them once and have only responded with generalised personal tales about how hot it is.

45 i never question your validity on stats..i admire your knowledge on such things, but i am just questioning this because o personal experience....it is tough going up there...Great Tough Going at that, but it takes time to get used to.

Not just a few training runs in a hot room....Sleeping in it, waking up HOT is a killer then going to work!!!

Can you seriously tell me that not one guy from our list was not fatigued after those games in Darwin? Now stats will not tell that because of mean averages.

How much later was 186 at Skilled from our Darwin trip?? When Beamer was crook & got NO possessions up to Half time??

All this would add up...and it's why the Top sides don't go..

I would love to go and watch a game up there with the Demons playing, but FFS i wouldn't want to be a player!!

Breathing air so humid it is wet....can't tell me that helps an elite sportsman.

Personal experience is not a generalization.

[PaulRB 6,305]

Hate to say it but your analysis is not statistically valid because the data set is so small. In addition, the conclusion you draw from your analysis simplifies the possible reasons and ignores those reasons that don't support your conclusion. For example, I could just as easily conclude, from your analysis, that Darwin games do deplete teams but not sufficiently to have top teams lose to lesser teams.

To get a better sense of the impact of playing in Darwin you need more data and to view it against what would have happened anyway...

Interesting stuff be good to have a close look at situations where the two teams were evenly matched (i.e. ladder position) and see if the team that had just played in Darwin broke even or not.

Edited October 20, 2011 by PaulRB

[45HG 1,539]

My personal conclusion is that it may well have an effect, but the effect it has is a far cry from the basic attitude of many that the next 2-3 weeks after playing in Darwin are a write off.

"For example, I could just as easily conclude, from your analysis, that Darwin games do deplete teams but not sufficiently to have top teams lose to lesser teams" is pretty much exactly what I said - good teams will get the job done.

For you I'll go through and explore a bit deeper, will update next post.

[45HG 1,539]

By looking above, the following can be added to the discussion.

Teams have played a team above them on the ladder 14 times the week after playing in Darwin. The record is 4-10 (which was 4-6 before this year).

Teams have played a team below them on the ladder 6 times for a 4-2 result. (One of those was a 7th against 9th with the side in 9th on a massive roll - bound for a prelim final. The other was Port Adelaide, a rabble)

If it were seriously the detrimental event that many would have us believe, I doubt 4 teams could've got up to beat a team above them, and still most of the better sides get the job done.

[Redleg 40,426]

I posted this on another thread. We should request bye the week after Darwin or fixture our usual thrashing at Skilled and we rest most of the team.

[H_T 3,042]

I posted this on another thread. We should request bye the week after Darwin or fixture our usual thrashing at Skilled and we rest most of the team.

I'd request we play Geelong twice. And make damn sure everyone was available.

We may learn something from a great team. And we may learn our progress.

We won't make progress or learn avoiding the best. If you want to go places you've got to play the yardstick and play well.

[Redleg 40,426]

I'd request we play Geelong twice. And make damn sure everyone was available.

We may learn something from a great team. And we may learn our progress.

We won't make progress or learn avoiding the best. If you want to go places you've got to play the yardstick and play well.

I'd rather just win games and make the finals, better in the long run than honourable losses.

[H_T 3,042]

Who said anything about honourable losses ?

[Jonesy!!! 27]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/melbourne-and-north-melbourne-to-get-extra-crack-at-greater-western-sydney/story-e6frf9jf-1226175679244

[rhaz 342]

nice little freebie there. the fact that we played GC twice this year made our shitty season look a little better... 2 free wins i wont complain about (and 2 chances to rub a certain players nose in the mud)

[Whispering_Jack 29,369]

A double dose of Ned $cully in the second half of the season if that knee's right by then. Hope our home fixture against them's at the G and not Darwin.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,905]

It'll be at the G or Docklands we will play Port in Darwin. What's the odds $cully doesn't front up for that game?

[jnrmac 19,943]

We play the GWS twice, both in the second half of the season....

[Junior 46]

Scully had better turn up to the G. I've been practising my 'booing' skills, and plan on using them.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

I guess from a points perspective it should be two easy wins against GW$ but to be quite honest I'd rather we played Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Richmond and Geelong twice. I go to the football to watch a good game between two sides have some sort of feeling for, I couldn't give a stuff about the interstate sides and when I go it's with a real lack of interest.

I understand that we need interstate sides but I simply have no feelings one way or the other, there's no rivalry and no real intensity for me.

The AFL may be trying to build up some sort of faux rivalry between us and GW$ but it just doesn’t interest me. I couldn’t give a stuff about $cully anymore and I certainly couldn’t care about that senile old fart that coaches them.

[H_T 3,042]

http://www.heraldsun...f-1226175679244

No away game to WA at Patterson's for the Pies....that's fortunate for them despite 5 interstate trips.

[Samsara 65]

Hope we play GC twice too :D