Where will our goals come from?

[The Chazz 4,077]

It's been something that has had me scratching my head for the past few years, and maybe in 2012, I will discover the answer that I have searching for. The question - Where will our goals come from?

Over the past decade or so, it's an area that is hard to find any trend. We can all sit back and talk about how sides must do the press to be successful, etc, etc, but the main thing that you need to do to win games of footy is kick more goals than your opponent!

So, looking at the Lions powerhouse of the early naughties, their main goal kick, their full forward Alaistair Lynch, returned a consistent 60+ goals a year, with Browny generally averaging in the 30's. Aker in the 30's, and Voss an interesting mid-20 average.

Then we look at the might of the Geelong team, Stevie J is generally good for around 50 a year, Mooney around the same, but the midfielders likes of Ablett and Chapman, who both averaged well over 30 goals for the season.

However, Hawthorn in 2008 saw Buddy kick 113, Roughy kick 75, and their mids of Hodge, Mitchell and Rioli with very low numbers (under 20).

So, now that we have a forward line with some structure; with obviously Clark as our "go-to" man, and with other options such as Watts, Green, Jurrah and Petterd/Howe, where do you see our goals coming from? Do we have enough forward power to play the Hawthorn-style of having 2 main focal points, with bugger all for the mids to worry about other than getting it in to them, or are we going to rely on our midsized forwards (Green, Jurrah, Petterd, Howe), to kick our goals, with Mitch Clark needing to "do an Al Lynch or Cam Mooney" and just be good for that 50 a season.

Looking at the way footy has gone over the past decade, I'm not oozing with confidence if people say that we will get enough from Petterd, Green, Jurrah and Howe (our midsized forwards) to do the ultimate - win us a premiership. It would have to reverse the trend, which I appreciate, trends can change.

Geelong are an easy team to use when looking at our structures and set-ups.

* Clark maybe our Mooney or Pods. Can he be good for 40-50 goals a season? He needs to be!

* Is Jurrah our Stevie J? LJ has already shown, even in an off year, he's capable of a 50+ season

* But where are our Ablett/Chapman goals going to come from within our midfield? 30 goals is a fair average in anyone's book, but for a midfielder to do it, gee, Sylvia would be our only possibility, and maybe JT. Just shows how much of a step up these guys MAY need to take.

On the otherhand, do we go for broke, like Hawthorn, and try and push for Clark to kick 70+ and Watts to go for 60+? In answer to this, I don't think we are a team set up for that style.

The saving grace is that when Collingwood won it last year, there was a more even contribution from smalls and talls. Didak kicked about 50, Cloke and Dawes 30-45, Daisy kicked his 20-odd, Swan chimed in here and there, etc, etc.

How I see it, I still think we need more goals from our midfield. I think we need;

* Clark to kick his 50+

* Jurrah to kick his 50+

* Green to kick his 30+

And this is where the fun starts and expectations raised;

* Howe (18 from 13 game in his first year) should be looking at 25+

* Petterd needs to be able to rotate through the midfield, on his way to a 20+ season

* Sylvia REALLY needs to deliver 25+. He has the potential, time to put up!

* And Mr Watts. I'm a big fan, and a lot will depend on where he's played, but this season, sorry buddy, you're looking at 20+

* The resting ruckman between them should be aiming for 20+ too.

It is one area of the game that I do take a fair bit of notice in. I get frustrated when our top 2 goal kickers are on 40 or so each, then we drop down to 20 for third.

2012 is probably the first year we've had in the past 4 or 5 where we WILL need to see an improvement. As I said earlier, it's a simple theory - kick more goals than your opponent and you win the game (most times this is ture).

Thoughts?

(Apologies for the lengthy post.)

[Bitter but optimistic 21,391]

Good post. I have pondered this question each year and unless a lot of guys kick a few we could be in trouble. The figures you provide come to 240 - but a lot of that is best case. Someone must have the stats but how many goals do top four or top six sides kick, on average, in a home and away season? I'm guessing 300+. So do we need more contibutors? Who might/they be?

[Scipio 5,868]

I'd expect our top three contributors to be Jurrah, Clark and Watts/Green. Hopefully 50 or so for Jurrah, 40 for Clark and at least 20 to 25 from the third. Our game plan in recent years has seen a spread of goals through the midfield from Sylvia, Jones etc, but it's possible now that we have Neeld and a real focal point in Clark that the goals will be less spead as in recent years. Have to wait and see!

[Dan Fantastik 50]

Very interesting post Billy,

I think its hard to put a number on how many goals are needed from our forwards to become a threat.

Its true we need to kick for goals then the opposition to win, however that surly is relevant to the amount of goals you concede. I think this comes down to the amount of inside 50's for and against us. Our midfield is the area i think we should be worried about at this stage, more clearance and insides 50's = more goals.

I think we are more then capable of kicking a big enough score to win, as long as the supply for the centre is there.

It would be interesting to see the saints goal scoring stats from 2009/10 and see how they compare to the likes of the cats and pies.

[John Crow Batty 8,284]

Hey Bill, I think you're trying to count how many eggs a chook will lay before the chook itself has hatched. The talent is there. In the end it will not matter who gets the goals as long as they kick enough. If we have a lousy midfield, defence and forwards who think their job is only to kick goals the worst case scenario will apply as for last season. It's up to the coaching team to see it doesn't happen.

Edited October 19, 2011 by america de cali

[Wiggles.Rock 0]

2011 Goal Stats

Geelong 426 avg 17

Collingwood 415 avg 17

Melbourne 286 avg 13

Melbourne need to find another 50 odd goals in 2012 to be a serious competitor in the 2012 finals race (not sure where this will come from). However, with Clark at FF I would suspect there should be much more crumbing goals... NOW, with Clark crashing packs & the likes of say wonna, bennell, jetta, howe, petterd & even flash picking up the 'crumbs' the extra 2-3 goals a game needs might just happen.

I'm not suggesting that they will all play in our front 6, but just whoever is supporting Watts, Jurrah, Clarke, Howe, Petterd as I personally would love to see those 5 play 23 games come 2012..

Just need to dry up the goals against.

Edited October 19, 2011 by Wiggles.Rock

[Dee-Nee 91]

Agree with a couple of you guys. The talent is there up forward now. But are the mid fielders good enough yet to get it to them regularly?

[RudeBoy 164]

Despite only playing 35 games, Liam Jurrah has averaged 50 goals a year (almost 2 1/2 goals per game) in each of his 3 seasons. He has also kicked the fastest first 50 goals of any player for a decade, surpassing Buddy Franklin, Fevola, Rewoldt, Rocca, Cloke or Johnathon Brown. Whatever else happens, the forward set up must focus on maximising the goal kicking talents of LJ imho.

Edited October 20, 2011 by RudeBoy

[beelzebub 22,269]

With all due respect a team ought not really focus on any ONE person. It ought to encompass the abilites and styles that say Jurrah and Watts already have. Incorporate the likely tall target style big forward presence of Clark. A team invariably falls down when only one road to goal is emphasised. They become to easy to play against.

We have a number of goal kickers. Jurrah, Watts, Green, Sylvia , Howe , Moloney, Petterd, Martin. Even Dun came up with 16 ( from 11) and Trengove. We now add Clark to this mix.

What needs to occur is the midfield must become more prevalent in loading up opportunities for any and all of the above. Jurrah is mecurial in making somethig out of nothing, others need a more traditional approach to goal..lol

We need a non-static type of forward set up. We simply need options. If al lare well rehearsd and drillled . If they learn more about requisite and effective structures and where anyone is likely to be then chances will present and goals will be kicked. A bit like the Gopher Whacker game. We have to make sure that no matter which way a defense tries to cover us there is always something popping up.. I believe we now hve sufficien talent to do this well.

[Trisul 640]

Defense should be considered along with center clearances. Blease with another pre-season should be cherry ripe for consistant zone/press destuction and delivery. Frawley and Garland supporting. Rivers worked hard to link this year, Grimes will similarly shine.

[Biffen 12,380]

Jetta will bag a few also , .Greeny is looking more like a bench player at this stage .

[Redleg 37,908]

2011 Goal Stats

Geelong 426 avg 17

Collingwood 415 avg 17

Melbourne 286 avg 13

Melbourne need to find another 50 odd goals in 2012 to be a serious competitor in the 2012 finals race (not sure where this will come from). However, with Clark at FF I would suspect there should be much more crumbing goals... NOW, with Clark crashing packs & the likes of say wonna, bennell, jetta, howe, petterd & even flash picking up the 'crumbs' the extra 2-3 goals a game needs might just happen.

I'm not suggesting that they will all play in our front 6, but just whoever is supporting Watts, Jurrah, Clarke, Howe, Petterd as I personally would love to see those 5 play 23 games come 2012..

Just need to dry up the goals against.

I know I am a dirty old man but I love your avatar.

Would love to know the stats on our small forward goals. Bet they were scarce. That is a major area of improvement. When aussie was up and flying 2 a game was expected.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Redleg