Premiership clock

[Choko 493]

Watching our insipid performance again today, it got me thinking about which teams we are ahead of on the "premiership clock". For example, Essendon are now running a young side and have been down for about the same time as us, yet still can put 4 good quarters together and be impressive. That's not something we are even near.

So my questions are:

- When do you think our premiership window is?

- Which teams are behind/ahead of us?

I think we will next be vying for a premiership in 2012, with a hope of low top 8 finish in 2011.

I think we are ahead of Freo, Richmond and North (who I don't think can win one without re-starting) and Syd. Ess, Carl, WCE, Adel are in my view ahead of us. I question whether we are ahead of Gold Coast.

[grazman 6,606]

Well I'm not sure today was insipid at all, in fact it's exactly what I'd expect when most of your side are made up of babies, but in answer to your question - I don't know... but the positives from my perspective are -

Sitting 0 and 3 isn't what we'd wish for as supporters and already it looks like we're in for another torrid year, but after three matches where (in the coaches words) we've been competitive for much longer periods than in 08 I thought I'd just kick around a few thoughts about why we can look forward to waiting for future seasons to come around.

1. We're better than last year, and our side is much younger - in fact most of the side all year has played less than 50 games which statistically speaking means we're on a hiding to nothing - that we aren't getting blown out of the water means that either the side is executing the game plan better or the younger players are better than those that have left the side or both... hopefully both.

2. We've found out that our hopes for some of our younger players: Jones, Garland, Morton, Martin, Petterd and Frawley were well founded.

3. That whilst our ruck situation doesn't look impressive ATM, that both Spencer and Meesen are worth putting time into.

4. That we'll be a much better side when we can get players such as Watts, Grimes, Maric, Strauss and Blease out onto the park.

[Yze_Magic 3]

Fremantle.

[Al`s DEMONS 0]

i think our window is 2012-2016, allowing we get two picks in top 3-5 picks at this years draft we must get another power forward, then a classy outside mid. allowing for the revamped draft over next couple of years hard decisions need to be made on whats left of the senior players. this year Wheelan , Bell , Sylvia , Newton ,Robbo , Jamar and Mcdonald will be should/will fall under one of the following as deemed by the coaches- cant cut it at afl level, too old thanks for the sevice but wont be there in 3 years when we a force so lets just cut the crap and free up list space for more kids, the year after that Wheatley , Bruce and Miller. if we draft right at years end Miller will find himself playing out his days at Casey. yes i rate some of the players mentioned but we must think long term. even Neita knew when it was time to call it a day

[Jaded No More 58,771]

I actually think we are a lot better placed than many teams, even though we are performing poorly at the moment.

We're primed for another 2 or 3 top picks, we have one of the youngest lists in the competition, and we're in the midst of a rebuild which started before the compromised draft.

There are teams out there with old lists, who will never win a flag with what they have at the moment, and who will take years to rebuild thanks to the introduction of two new teams that will take all the top picks. Teams placed anywhere from 6 to 11, who rely heavily on older players (Sydney, Brisbane, Richmond) are going to need a lot of luck with later picks if they are to be successful in the short-term future.

We found ourselves a great time to suck, and thank god we've realised the need to rebuild mid-way through 2007, and made the required changes.

[praha 10,329]

We are ahead of Fremantle and Essendon.

[Deano74 156]

Our clock is out of batteries

[45HG 1,539]

Next year is where I will start expecting this club to start pushing up the ladder and from then on I will raise my expectations, espcially leading into 2012 where i feel we should be pushing up top.

We simply have no leaders at our club to think about being competitive until at least next year and probably the year after, but we have the quality and self belief building at the club to push to the heights in coming years.

[Nicho 1]

We are def last!!! Even with Watts and Morton.. We still need to find a decent ruck combo and 2-3 good classy and quick mids....

We have what is going to be a solid backline but we needs heaps of improvment...

We lack leadership, skills, speed, strength, resoucres, heart & $$$$

[H_T 2,941]

2013 to 2018

[45HG 1,539]

We are def last!!! Even with Watts and Morton.. We still need to find a decent ruck combo and 2-3 good classy and quick mids....

We have what is going to be a solid backline but we needs heaps of improvment...

We lack leadership, skills, speed, strength, resoucres, heart & $$$$

Disagree

[Adelaide Demon 0]

2009 - cannot see us winning more than 3 matches. Who knows, could be wrong, but I'd say we're finishing 16th.

2010 - Too early to say but 6 wins or more would be great. If we could finish somewhere between 11 and 14, that would be a positive result I would think.

2011 - Looking to push for double figures in terms of wins, knock off a top-4 side or two in upset wins, be in the hunt for the top 8 most of the season. Finish somewhere between 8 and 11.

2012 - Solid top 8 side, finish between 6-8. Get finals experience.

2013 - Push for top four, make the finals, more finals experience.

From there, who knows? Premierships are anything but a formailty.

[Guest digga]

2013 to 2018

Agree. Anyone who thinks we can be a chance for a flag befor 2013 is braindead.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

I was thinking the same thing in regards to the dons, only my end result was the opposite...

The Done have had some recruiting blunders, chief among them guys like Mal Michael. They are still relying on Lucas, Lloyd and Fletcher for a lot of the REAL work put in around the ground. Throw in an absent McVeigh, and while they're running a young side, they are in exactly the same place we were a few years ago when Neita was declining. They spent time papering over the holes, and will pay for it in the future. They may have a brief resurgence, but they won't get anywhere near the top 4, and will certainly not win a flag before bottoming out again.

We are ahead of them simply because we have around 2/3rds of the kids we need to rebuild. They have only a handful. The youngsters they have now that are making good running will look just like Brock, Sylvia, Davey etc etc in a few years. Without their older team-mates they will struggle the same as our mid-twenties players do.

[titan_uranus 22,710]

We are ahead of Richmond and Fremantle.

Essendon is well in front of us.

[jacey 333]

2009 - cannot see us winning more than 3 matches. Who knows, could be wrong, but I'd say we're finishing 16th.

2013 - Push for top four, make the finals, more finals experience.

Things turn around quicker then people realise. Things look grim now but it will suddenly click.

2005, Hawks looked like they'll be in the doldrums for years. 2006. Carlton couldn't see the light.

This is what I'm expecting.

2009. Play out the year and get pick 1 + 2. Pump games into the kids.

2010. I'm expecting things to click and win 6-8.

2011. I'm expecting to push for finals.

2012. Push deeper into finals. Open Window.

[praha 10,329]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

[stretch marks 2]

...Which teams are behind us?...

fitzroy, south melb and university

[Geddy Lee 582]

fitzroy, south melb and university

I don't know, the Reds and Melbourne Uni could both probably smash us at the moment.

[Pipefitter 2,029]

This year i saw us having a poor first start of the year and then coming home strong sorta like the saints and bulldogs did when they came off the bottom after all those years. Though im starting to think if we continue to lose we will get worse not better later in the year. Our last few games of last year were insipid. You can only stay up and about for so long after being flogged week in week out for 3 years. God footy sucks at the moment.

[Jaded No More 58,771]

Essendon is well in front of us.

They're going to lose their three best players in the next year or two, and they'll struggle to replace Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher.

They are not ahead of us, they are just winning more games at the moment because their senior players [censored] all over ours. The difference is, when we lose our senior players, we won't be worse off (because by the time Bruce, Green, Robbo leave their replacements will be nicely developed), but when Essendon lose their senior players they'll go into serious after-shock.

Fremantle is another club who is in real trouble.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

I was thinking the same thing in regards to the dons, only my end result was the opposite...

The Done have had some recruiting blunders, chief among them guys like Mal Michael. They are still relying on Lucas, Lloyd and Fletcher for a lot of the REAL work put in around the ground. Throw in an absent McVeigh, and while they're running a young side, they are in exactly the same place we were a few years ago when Neita was declining. They spent time papering over the holes, and will pay for it in the future. They may have a brief resurgence, but they won't get anywhere near the top 4, and will certainly not win a flag before bottoming out again.

We are ahead of them simply because we have around 2/3rds of the kids we need to rebuild. They have only a handful. The youngsters they have now that are making good running will look just like Brock, Sylvia, Davey etc etc in a few years. Without their older team-mates they will struggle the same as our mid-twenties players do.

Essendon have 28 players on their list under 23 including Stanton, Prismall, Monfries, Lonergan, Dempsey, Hocking, Neagle, Ryder, Houlie, Jetta, Gumbleton, Reimers, Daniher, Myers, Zaharakis, Pears and Hurley. Obviously not all of them will make it and it's a bit of a concern that Fletcher, Lucas and Lloyd are all on the wrong side of 30 but Fletcher rarely takes the oppositions best forward now (that's given to one of Daniher, Pears, Ryder or Hurley) and Lucas has done nothing the last couple of years anyway.

McVeigh and Hille won't be 30 til 2011 either

[Bonkers 918]

We are ahead of Richmond and Fremantle.

Essendon is well in front of us.

I disagree that Essenscum are ahead of us at the moment. They have key players coming to the end of their careers that will need to be replaced. eg Fletcher, Lloyd, Lucas. IMO Lloyd was Essenscums best on Saturday night. They don't appear to have anyone earmarked to replace these players as there are doubts over Gumbleton and Rider. I guess I am questioning the quality of the rebuilding taking place.

Our defense appears to be sorted and will develop more with the experience gained. The midfield is the biggest worry to me, we have players that are all one paced and similar types (inside ball winners) we need to recruit well in this area in this years draft. Tom Sculley would be one player we need and also another player who can gut run would be very handy. Perhaps we can trade one of our slow mids when the time is right to trade.

In attack we will have Watts, Maric, Wonna, Miller (as a 3rd tall), Sylvia(or any other from say Petterd, Bate, Jurrah etc) and then there is the matter of a second key target to play alongside Watts from this years draft.

So in summary with players from the last two years drafts not playing at the moment(Watts, Blease, Strauss, Grimes, Maric & Jurrah) and say 3 quick mids to add from this years draft along with a key tall and a ruckman I think the rebuild is really taking place. We could expect to see some real development and improvement this yearr and in the next year even more so. I would rather be in our position than say teams like Richmond, Sydney, Kangaroos and perhaps even Collingwood as I can't see there list developing to be premiership contenders.

[titan_uranus 22,710]

They're going to lose their three best players in the next year or two, and they'll struggle to replace Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher.

They are not ahead of us, they are just winning more games at the moment because their senior players [censored] all over ours. The difference is, when we lose our senior players, we won't be worse off (because by the time Bruce, Green, Robbo leave their replacements will be nicely developed), but when Essendon lose their senior players they'll go into serious after-shock.

Can't agree with much of this Jaded. If you're trying to say that Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher are their three best players, then you don't see much of Essendon. Fletcher is still great, but rarely gets the opposition's best forward, and has plenty of down days. Lucas is past it, and Lloyd has had one good game out of three. By the end of next year they'll be gone, but the holes are already being filled. Down back there's Pears, Daniher and Ryder (all of whom look the part and two of whom have played less than 15 games). Up foward injuries have hit hard, but they still have an ability to score goals and kick large scores.

It's not their senior players that are winning them games. Lloyd aside, their win over Carlton was led by the likes of Lovett, Stanton, Watson, Dempsey and Monfries, who aren't the 'senior' players at that club. McVeigh and Hille are on the right side of 30 too. So when they lose their senior players over the next 2 years, the impact will be similar to ours. But they've got what we don't have: pace, skill and an ability to score goals.

[Eastie Boyz 0]

If one of Ryder, Gumbleton or Neagle can stand up as a key forward then Essendon's future looks a lot safer.

Lucas will probably struggle to get another contract but Fletcher and Lloyd look like playing a couple more years