Match Preview v Carltom

[Demonland 72,225]

A DRAWN OUT AFFAIR by Clyde the Clifton Hill Cabbie

They call me in to do match reviews when things are getting desperate around the place and I suppose after witnessing last week's debacle against North Melbourne at the G, things are about as desperate as they can get, so here I am.

When you can't find a way to trouble the scoreboard attendant until your opponent has already notched up twelve scoring shots and kicked a couple of others out of bounds on the full, you know that you've hit rock bottom.

Well, not quite.

Actually, you know that you've hit rock bottom when you come up against a team that has just ended a record 14 game losing streak and the bookies have them as raging favourites at $1.35 to win and you're rated at just $3.00. Perhaps there's some value there but, it means that it probably isn't worth the gamble. That's what my knowledgeable fares tell me anyway (I only take them too the races, they're usually too broke to take them home).

Anyway, when you're quoted at $3.00 against a nag that was headed for the glue factory last week, then you've not only hit the rock bottom stage but you're also digging yourself a deep hole from which there is little hope of return.

Carlton fans have come out of the woodwork since last Sunday's win and are cock-a-hoop and crowing about how they are going to give the Demons an almighty flogging. But look who they beat last weekend?

Collingwood. The AFL’s love child – a 2007 top four team and one which came to within a heartbeat of playing off in the grand final (and probably winning it) against Port Adelaide. But the Magpies of 2008 have been but a shadow of last year's outfit. As a top team from 2007, the AFL doled out the ideal programme to them for this year. It included the opening four games against teams that occupied the bottom half of the ladder in 2007. Their dividend from four games is a 50% record which is pathetic - just wait until they play good sides like the big three!

Now obviously, Melbourne isn't travelling all that flash either and Demon fans would have wet dreams about a 50:50 win-loss record so far, and I don't know why, but I like the look of their team for tomorrow.

Collingwood lost to Carlton last week because of its arrogance in underestimating its opposition. The way Carlton and its supporters are carrying on at the moment, they might well be falling into the same trap.

All we need to see is a Melbourne playing with a bit of emotion and the players using their brains and an upset will be on the cards.

There's other thing Melbourne has going for it now. The club received an absolute hammering from Caroline Wilson in the Age during the week. That's usually a good sign because Caro slagged off at Richmond and its poor culture last week, and the Tigers responded with a 64-point win against Fremantle at Subiaco.

The Demons are under siege and it's their turn for the next big improvement.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Carlton at the MCG – Sunday 20 April 2008 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 90 wins Carlton 109 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Melbourne 48 wins Carlton 43 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 8 wins Carlton 4 wins

The Coaches: Bailey 0 wins Ratten 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 at 1.00pm (live)

Replays on The Comedy Channel at 8.00pm and 11.00pm.

RADIO 774ABC SEN

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $3.00 Carlton to win $1.35

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 21.13.139 defeated Carlton 15.18.108 Round 22, 2007, at The MCG

The ultimate "tank" game and one that will long live on in the memory of all those who attended. The prize for losing will be on display this Sunday wearing a Carlton Guernsey. Take your pick whether that person is Chris Judd or Matthew Kreuzer. For Melbourne, Travis Johnstone collected a season high 42 disposals which was enough to send him packing north to Brisbane in return for National Draft pick number 14.

Meanwhile, Melbourne's coach for the day was rewarded by getting a posting as an assistant coach at Carlton. He should be able to work out the Demons' weaknesses this week because plenty of them were exposed during his brief coaching stint (mind you compared to that of the current coach, it's a record to be proud of).

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Nathan Carroll Daniel Bell

Half backs Paul Wheatley Jared Rivers Cameron Bruce

Centreline Brad Green Brock McLean Clint Bartram

Half forwards Cale Morton Russell Robertson Colin Sylvia

Forwards Aaron Davey David Neitz Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Jeff White James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Lynden Dunn James Frawley Mark Jamar Brent Moloney

Emergencies Colin Garland Chris Johnson Matthew Warnock

In James Frawley Brent Moloney

Out Chris Johnson (omitted) Brad Miller (suspended)

CARLTON

Backs Michael Jamison Bret Thornton Jordan Russell

Half backs Heath Scotland Jarrad Waite Paul Bower

Centreline Andrew Carrazzo Marc Murphy Bryce Gibbs

Half forwards Kade Simpson Brad Fisher Nick Stevens

Forwards Eddie Betts Brendan Fevola Cameron Cloke

Followers Matthew Kreuzer Richard Hadley Chris Judd

Interchange Jordan Bannister Shaun Grigg Setanta O'hAilpin Darren Pfeiffer

Emergencies Dennis Armfield Adam Bentick Adam Hartlett

No change

AND ANOTHER THING

Now that I've pumped up Melbourne's tyres a bit, I do want to get a few things off my chest.

I'm so sick and tired of hearing the words "game plan" that I've put up a notice in my cab to the effect that passengers who utter those words will be ejected without further warning.

Fair dinkum.

There's only one frigging game plan in footy and that's to try to finish in front of your opponent when the final siren sounds. That can't happen whether you run and carry, go long or stand on your head if you can't deliver the ball properly to your team mates. It's not rocket science but I get the feeling that Melbourne's players are too frightened to make mistakes and that's exactly when you compound the problem. It was no co-incidence last week when the Demons loosened up a bit at the end of the game, that they actually outscored the opposition to win a quarter for the first time this season.

Hopefully, they've learned their lesson and are prepared to play with some more flair and confidence. Against a team that has one of the competition's weakest defences, I'm expecting bigger things from the Dees this week. Their two key forwards David Neitz and Russell Robertson have to stand up and do just something. Neita's dividend of three goals from four games so far has been nowhere near good enough for him to retain his place in the team but, despite his age, he's too good a footballer to be kept down for too long. He needs an early goal and he'll be on his way. And so does Robbo because the way he's been going, his grand finals are fast approaching – one of them is on a celebrity talent programme and the other is likely to be the grand finale to his career unless he starts standing his ground playing for four quarters and not a cameo in junk time.

By comparison, we have Carlton, which relies on Brendan Fevola to kick a lot of their goals. He's been firing on all cylinders for the past two weeks since he got off the grof but this week he runs into an even rougher nut than he is, in Nathan Carroll. The Demon defender will relish the opportunity to play against such an exalted bogan. If he can keep the Blues' spearhead to under ten goals without urinating on the MCG advertising boards, he will have done his job and the Demons could well be on their way to an unexpected victory.

However, I’m still not sure if either side has developed a culture of winning yet. One swallow doesn't make a summer and the Blues will realise that it's not that easy to get away from what you've become used to for so long. The game will revive menories of their shameful tanking performance while playing in Carlton jumper against the red and the blue should bring a lump to Chris Judd's throat (and, no I'm not suggesting that anyone should perform a Barry Hall on him). The emotion of the day might well be too much for the Blues.

On the other hand, the Demons have forgotten what it's like to come home with a well earned victory and the odds on a draw are tempting for me, so that's what I'm tipping.

A draw.

[jacey 333]

against the red and the blue should bring a lump to Chris Judd's throat

The lump in his wallet makes up for that.

I can see it now, Jamar's claim to fame will be to clean out judd.

[The Emblem 1]

On the new game plan:

I have a mate who was recently at a footy clinic and apparently Jeff White was saying that he didn't think they would win a game to at least August due to Bailey's game plan that they are trying to learn.

How insensitive can you get, thats the peak of ski-season

[Gorgoroth 12,963]

If Jamar did that he deserves life membership

Firstly he would be suspended for 10 odd weeks, secondly cos he hit Juda$

[Choko 493]

Great report - replays on the Comedy Channel - very funny!

[Melb_2009 0]

*listening to My Kind of scene by Powderfinger*

[The Great Pretender 463]

It was no co-incidence last week when the Demons loosened up a bit at the end of the game, that they actually outscored the opposition to win a quarter for the first time this season.

Not just that but I think there's a chance that this was a turning point for our season. Look out for a more competitive effort this week.

[Adzman 2,154]

The bookies, AFL fans, Carlton fans, tipsters are all on the Carltank train.

Then it hits me like a bright light in the dark of night....Carlton are still Carlton! What is everyone smoking to put Carlton at 1.35 and the dees at 3!

[Jerry Lundergard 420]

Fevola is my main concern.

Two years ago when we made finals, they beat us twice with the Fev killing us in at least one of those games.

Last year, we beat the Blues twice, both times Fevola missed.

They are an improved team this year with the likes of Judd, Stevens and development to their younger players.

Are we an improved team?

[titan_uranus 25,020]

Fevola is my main concern.

Two years ago when we made finals, they beat us twice with the Fev killing us in at least one of those games.

Last year, we beat the Blues twice, both times Fevola missed.

They are an improved team this year with the likes of Judd, Stevens and development to their younger players.

Are we an improved team?

No, but then again, who expected them to beat Collingwood last week? No one, really. So even though, on paper, the different team is Carlton, we are not without a chance.

[The Great Pretender 463]

Collingwood. The AFL’s love child

Got done today. Now at 2-3 and haven't played the top 3 (or us) yet.

[praha 11,240]

What is everyone smoking to put Carlton at 1.35 and the dees at 3!

I didn't know you needed to smoke to realise how bad Melbourne are compared to Carlton. The better team gets better odds. You're kidding yourself if you can't realise that.

[mo64 5,875]

I didn't know you needed to smoke to realise how bad Melbourne are compared to Carlton. The better team gets better odds. You're kidding yourself if you can't realise that.

Well said. Take the $1.87 on Carlton to win by 18+ points.

[Deeman 1,497]

A DRAWN OUT AFFAIR by Clyde the Clifton Hill Cabbie

A draw.

Wrong game mate!