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The Draft Pick Upgrade Thread

Colm
in Melbourne Demons

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8 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Daicos has speed and a truly special kicking boot.

Zak Butters has speed, creativity and flies in at the contest with no regard for his safety but also with the ability to use his hips to win the ball. He's a dynamic inside and outside player.

I watched half that video. Yeah, he runs contest to contest exceptionally well and exposes the other juniors lack of two way running. He's generally a clean ball handler. I won't deny that. I will argue I'm not seeing any breaking the lines with pace.

0:17 - retreats backwards, gives the nothing handball that Ashcroft does wonders with to draw opponents
 0:20 - nice corridor kick
0:42 - retreats backwards, caught htb
1:00 - nice enough snap
1:20 - nothing handball
1:28 - backwards handball
1:36 - hacked clearance kick, Kako makes it look good
1: 47 - hacked clearance kick, turnover
2: 37 - calls for it under pressure, quickly makes it someone elses problem
2:45 quality gather and spin
2:54 nice long corridor switch
3:00 a clearance that goes forward!!! But he doesn't trust his pace to beat the chaser once Ashcroft gets it back to him, kick flubs wide to the other team
3:20 weak tackle
3:35 gets the ball forward in space, with team mates wide open everywhere he handballs to a guy right next to him

3.5 things caught my eye where as there was a whole lot that didn't achieve much.

The draft media is Twomey and a few other guys here and there, there's no real rankings that hold any weight with me until about now when you start to get a guide on what clubs really think. 'general view, not as talented or damaging'

He's a quality junior footballer and if he works his backside off at stoppage craft he could be like a Lachie Neale who just gets better and better. The best players aren't always the most skilled or have the best traits.

But right now I'm seeing a guy who's born early in the year and had the year off school to dedicate to footy and is very advanced in his in game running and clean hands but in terms of natural talent - pace, strength, overhead marking, explosive power, kicking distance, kicking penetration there's not much there.
 

Lachie Neale is also my best case comp for him, although Neale was pretty well built when he was drafted. 

I don't see Butters or Daicos - the best Butters comp in this draft is FOS. 

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    17 hours ago, DeeZone said:

    Is that a quote Deemania or is this your observations, either way very good.

    That Deemania, they write in the language and style of a 19th century novelist

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    1 hour ago, Davos said:

    Lachie Neale is also my best case comp for him, although Neale was pretty well built when he was drafted. 

    I don't see Butters or Daicos - the best Butters comp in this draft is FOS. 

    I watched the Smith highlights, someone compared him to Zach Merrett and that's who I saw too.

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    20 minutes ago, old55 said:

    I watched the Smith highlights, someone compared him to Zach Merrett and that's who I saw too.

    Yeah, I can see Merrett. I can also see Parish. I think there are 5-10 small accumulator mids you could compare him to. That archetype is obviously valuable, which is why I'm higher on him than @DeeSpencer. 

    I think we have to pick him if we're wiped out of Lalor, Langford and Tauru. 

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    3 minutes ago, Davos said:

    Yeah, I can see Merrett. I can also see Parish. I think there are 5-10 small accumulator mids you could compare him to. That archetype is obviously valuable, which is why I'm higher on him than @DeeSpencer. 

    I think we have to pick him if we're wiped out of Lalor, Langford and Tauru. 

    What's your thinking on O'Sullivan? I know nothing about it but he sounds good from the reports.

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    5 minutes ago, old55 said:

    What's your thinking on O'Sullivan? I know nothing about it but he sounds good from the reports.

    Butters upside, but I'm concerned that he hasn't proven himself to be a massive ballwinner yet. I know he's had an injury riddled year, but it's a huge risk to take someone top 5 who hasn't dominated a contest in at least 12 months.

    Alternatively, you could end up getting crazy value, where a clear number 1 talent slips due to short term injuries a la Joel Selwood. 

    I like others ahead of him, but can see how I can / will be proven wrong in 3 years time. 

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    I also can’t see JS being a preference for us.

    He’s a pure accumulator, but I think we value hurt factor more.

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    10 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

    I also can’t see JS being a preference for us.

    He’s a pure accumulator, but I think we value hurt factor more.

    It'll depend on how we rate the draft. If we think there's a top 4 or 5 in the draft, with a gap behind it, then we'll probably take one of them no matter the type. Taylor talks about talent 'cliffs', which was why we spend heavily to get our second pick into the top 12 last year. So much will depend on where he sees those cliffs.

    As for Smith, he's a good player. I think his contest work is underrated by most on here because he's light, but he has great ability to win the ball at the source. His games at the end of the year were his best, IMO, after he had a run in the VFL. He was able to play as more of ball carrier rather than solely an accumulator, which is a good sign for his AFL future. 

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    1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

     

    Sounds as though GC pick 13 will be heading to the Port via Pies as part of Noble & Houston deals. GC pick 6 looks to be heading to Tigers for Rioli. Unsure where else we can target a pick upgrade - all teams seem keen to head to the draft with a strong crop. Will be tricky to get back in at a reasonable spot IMO.

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    36 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

    It'll depend on how we rate the draft. If we think there's a top 4 or 5 in the draft, with a gap behind it, then we'll probably take one of them no matter the type. Taylor talks about talent 'cliffs', which was why we spend heavily to get our second pick into the top 12 last year. So much will depend on where he sees those cliffs.

    As for Smith, he's a good player. I think his contest work is underrated by most on here because he's light, but he has great ability to win the ball at the source. His games at the end of the year were his best, IMO, after he had a run in the VFL. He was able to play as more of ball carrier rather than solely an accumulator, which is a good sign for his AFL future. 


    Problem is that only so many players can be assigned to play at the source. Not sure I’m happy with Clayton lining up on a flank or Viney in a pocket. Versatility is such a rare commodity.

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    I think the most likely will be if Richmond decide to spread some of their potential 2024 first round bounty for Rioli, Bolton, Baker et al across into 2025 and bank on us bombing with our F1.    

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    1 minute ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

    I think the most likely will be if Richmond decide to spread some of their potential 2024 first round bounty for Rioli, Bolton, Baker et al across into 2025 and bank on us bombing with our F1.    

    I think clubs banking on us bombing next year is the key to us landing any pick this year for out F1. Comparing with Carl or Pies our F1 is a lot more enticing to GCS with Melb more then likely finishing below these teams, in others eyes then above, however it will come down to what we or others add to the F1.

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    13 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

    I think the most likely will be if Richmond decide to spread some of their potential 2024 first round bounty for Rioli, Bolton, Baker et al across into 2025 and bank on us bombing with our F1.    


    Yes, tiges will be keen to get more of a spread with so many firsts, but they’ll want to give us one in the late teens to maximise their selection options & mitigate against us having a good season.

    Would prefer to gazump others for GC’s pick, as we can use later picks this year for points. As long as they’re not wrapped up in a deal to Brisbane.

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    2 hours ago, Mach5 said:


    Problem is that only so many players can be assigned to play at the source. Not sure I’m happy with Clayton lining up on a flank or Viney in a pocket. Versatility is such a rare commodity.

    That's definitely true, however when you have a top 5 pick your expecting that the midfielder you are drafting will be worthy of being frontline midfielder. It's not like we're drafting James Jordon with pick 5 and forcing him to play outside the centre square, we're clearly expecting to draft a better player than that. The only current player I'd say is a full time midfielder for us is Oliver, with Petracca and Viney both being potential forwards for us. Versatility is good but it's much more important for lesser players rather than the good ones because you want your good players near the ball as often as possible. 

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    3 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

    That's definitely true, however when you have a top 5 pick your expecting that the midfielder you are drafting will be worthy of being frontline midfielder. It's not like we're drafting James Jordon with pick 5 and forcing him to play outside the centre square, we're clearly expecting to draft a better player than that. The only current player I'd say is a full time midfielder for us is Oliver, with Petracca and Viney both being potential forwards for us. Versatility is good but it's much more important for lesser players rather than the good ones because you want your good players near the ball as often as possible. 

    Viney is not much of a forward IMO.

    Given our list construct, with Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Pickett as good centre square players (assuming Oliver's hand heals) the perfect draftee for us would be a player who can play 2025 in a periphery role but can develop into a centre midfielder in future years. The Dogs drafted Rylie Sanders, who looks a centre midfield only, and they got limited value out of him this year as he wasn't able to play another role. By contrast, Windsor was able to play as a wing (or probably half back or half forward) and was more valuable this year.

    I think the bigger centre circle and the 6,6,6 rule has made a difference in what types of midfielders do well at centre bounces and that skill and speed has become more important than grunt.

     

     

     

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    MELBOURNE has interest in trading its future first-round pick for one of the Fremantle's first-round selections this year as the Demons look to double-up on talent in the upcoming draft.

    Fremantle list boss David Walls on Monday confirmed the Dockers have interest in flipping one of their three 2024 first-round picks into a 2025 first-round selection, depending on how their quest to land trade target Shai Bolton fares.

    "That's definitely a chance. There's a lot of clubs keen to get back in so we'll see what happens at the end of trade period and see how many of the first-rounders we're still holding and if we've traded or not," Walls told Gettable Trade Radio on Monday.

    "If we're still holding three, we'd definitely look to roll one forward because we think there's a strong market for it and we could get overs."

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    I'm sure we'll be able to turn our F1 into a 1st rounder this year, there'll be quite a few on offer from teams with Academy, F/S or a glut of early 2024 picks. Clubs will fancy a Dee deathride in 2025.

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    I wonder what pick 28 plus F1 would get us?

    Most clubs would imagine us staying around where we are or improving a little I would say. Losing ANB, issues with Trac and Clarry, May and Gawn getting on, and no-one of note traded in most likely.  So F1 might be seen as pick 5-10.

    Given how good this draft is, could we nab pick 8-13 from Freo/GC?

    Having pick 6 and ~10 would be huge in this draft

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    3 minutes ago, Nascent said:

    Presuming this falls over if they use picks 10 and 18 on Bolton.

     

    And I don’t think trading a future first for pick 18 (early 20s after bids) is good business at all unless a player we really rate slips to that pick on the night 

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    2 minutes ago, Nascent said:

    Presuming this falls over if they use picks 10 and 18 on Bolton.

     

    Not so much falls over but rolls over to Richmond, who might have 6 picks inside 23 and should be just as keen to move one back a year.

    But I can also see us making a move on 11 if the Bolton deal stalls and then Freo offering Richmond 10 and perhaps a Freo future first.

    Richmond death ride Freo to get Bolton value.

    Freo death ride us to come out of the Bolton deal looking sharper.

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    6 minutes ago, demoncat said:

    And I don’t think trading a future first for pick 18 (early 20s after bids) is good business at all unless a player we really rate slips to that pick on the night 

    I would hope it would be pick 10 or 11 but yes, f1 for pick 18 is a risky play.

    Edited by Nascent

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