The Run Home

[Lucifers Hero 38,210]

Not much to do on this horrid Melbourne winter day.

So put this together for discussion. 

State of Play

• Top 4 looks all but set with only Brisbane looking a little vulnerable:
  • Of the remaining 24 games for the Top 4 only one is for 8-pt
  • Of the remaining 24 games for the Top 4 only 4 are vs 5^th to 8^th teams
  • Carlton and Geelong play 3 of the bottom 4 teams
  • Carlton do not play a Top 8 team
  • Geelong play one Top 8 team
  • Their fixtures and % make them difficult to oust.
• Better news for Demons is that of the teams outside Top 4 we have a relatively easy draw, well ‘on paper’

Conclusions:

• Everything needs to go our way to make Top 4
• We will make the 8.  Hopefully 5^th or 6^th to get that first Home final.
• Spots 4-8 will be a bun fight between those currently 4 to 13
• 14 wins should be enough for Top 8
• Given the fixture, finalists should be known after rnd 20
• I don't give GCS, Coll or Hawks much chance of making the 8.
• I don't like Ports/WBD chances of making the 8, given their fixture.

Edited July 15 by Lucifers Hero

[seventyfour 876]

• Fremantle will bounce back. Not an easy task
• GWS still have enough talent to be a significant challenge
• Dogs are playing well
• Port are competitng for a top 8 spot and have an incredible midfield
• No-one has managed to beat Gold Coast at home
• Collingwood always find a way to beat us, even when they suck. Round 23 2017 anyone?

Every game is winnable but we could just as easily go 0-6. I reckon we'd miss on percentage going 3-3.

[Ollie fan 2,763]

If we bring effort to every game we can end up 4th or 5th. Brisbane are not that good and are at best 50/50 this week. The future is all in our own hands.

[roy11 3,394]

Always love your excel work @Lucifers Hero

I did the squiggle ladder predicter a few weeks ago and it had us finishing 12th, now it has us finishing 8th. It has us losing to Freo, gold coast and Collingwood but beating GWS, Dogs, Port, 

Collingwood have a very tough run, would love to demolish them in the last round and secure finals for us and keep them out of the 8. 

[In Harmes Way 7,658]

At least there's a good test for the dees in each of these last 6 games. If we do make the 8, we'll be hardened and ready to go.

[Diamond_Jim 12,289]

Need to go 4-2. That will be a tough ask

Our percentage is not great and effectively puts us two games behind the top 4

Can't say I'd love an elimination final in Freo.

Well at least we know where we lost this season (Brisbane and West Coast)

[FearTheBeard 1,125]

My ladder predictor has us either missing the 8 on 13 wins because of percentage or finsihing 6th on 14 wins.

To get the 14 wins would take a massive effort from a very young team. 

If we make it, we will have earnt it.

[daisycutter 28,821]

10 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Need to go 4-2. That will be a tough ask

Our percentage is not great and effectively puts us two games behind the top 4

Can't say I'd love an elimination final in Freo.

Well at least we know where we lost this season (Brisbane and West Coast)

and carlscum (thanks umps)

[old55 22,346]

Our finals chances are totally in our hands - we play all the teams around us vying for a spot - GWS, Port, Dogs, Gold Coast and Collingwood. Only two or maybe 3 if Essendon fall off the cliff, of those 6 make it IMO.

[Engorged Onion 10,037]

47 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

At least there's a good test for the dees in each of these last 6 games. If we do make the 8, we'll be hardened and ready to go.

Or fatigued 'cause every game is an 8 pointer' 😁

[Adam The God 28,317]

I'm hoping it's season over for the GCS by the time we play them in Round 23.

[leave it to deever 17,324]

Great thread LH.

And well presented and reasoned.

Thanks.

Huge clash this weekend.

Win this and with a quick return of our fearless Captain, I'm tipping top four. It's possible.

And these days the Swannies don't seem so invincible.

Edited July 15 by leave it to deever

[dl4e 5,806]

I think  our best chances are against port and the filth. But 2 is not enough.

[loges 6,634]

12 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Or fatigued 'cause every game is an 8 pointer' 😁

Most teams vying will be in the same boat.

[DubDee 23,454]

Thanks LH. Some random thoughts:

• Important to factor in home vs away also, especially with the likes of GC - 9 from 9 at home
• Whoever gets the Cats in a Prelim qualifier can thank their lucky stars.  Probably the blues
• The Freo game is the only one we will start underdogs for.  We should win 4 from the other 5 but it will be tough
• Would be great to get a 10 goal win against Port at home or Dogs. Need to limit the damage against the dockers too
• I wonder if the Crows can fire and throw a few contenders off their game?

Edited July 15 by DubDee

[DubDee 23,454]

Also we have:

two 6 day breaks,

two 8 days breaks and

one 7 day break

so fairly even on that front

[Deemania since 56 6,506]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not much to do on this horrid Melbourne winter day.

So put this together for discussion. 

State of Play

• Top 4 looks all but set with only Brisbane looking a little vulnerable:
  • Of the remaining 24 games for the Top 4 only one is for 8-pt
  • Of the remaining 24 games for the Top 4 only 4 are vs 5^th to 8^th teams
  • Carlton and Geelong play 3 of the bottom 4 teams
  • Carlton do not play a Top 8 team
  • Geelong play one Top 8 team
  • Their fixtures and % make them difficult to oust.
• Better news for Demons is that of the teams outside Top 4 we have a relatively easy draw, well ‘on paper’

Conclusions:

• Everything needs to go our way to make Top 4
• We will make the 8.  Hopefully 5^th or 6^th to get that first Home final.
• Spots 4-8 will be a bun fight between those currently 4 to 13
• 14 wins should be enough for Top 8
• Given the fixture, finalists should be known after rnd 20
• I don't give GCS, Coll or Hawks much chance of making the 8.
• I don't like Ports/WBD chances of making the 8, given their fixture.

Terrific chart, well done.

[DubDee 23,454]

7 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I think  our best chances are against port and the filth. But 2 is not enough.

The dogs are our bunnies.  pencil that one in too!

 

Nah nah nah NAH NAH na na NAH NAH

[Deemania since 56 6,506]

2 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Also we have:

two 6 day breaks,

two 8 days breaks and

one 7 day break

so fairly even on that front

Another reason to keep smiling.

[leave it to deever 17,324]

10 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I'm hoping it's season over for the GCS by the time we play them in Round 23.

Im guessing final round will probably see permutations of three or four sides to play finals.

Hopefully ours are decided this weekend and the one after.

I think 22 wins and percentage will do it.

Shame ours has dropped recently.

We have lost two close games and won one. Percentage was smashed by Freo so hopefully we can return serve this round.

I have them as second faves above Carlton as a flag winner. And certainly the best chance against Sydney who look a little wobbly of late.

Such a huge game this weekend for us.

Win this without Max and we will be a worry for teams when Max returns.

Rivers and Milkshake are big game changers. Rivers is slipping under radar and JM is the grunt, experience and skill we have been so desperately lacking at times forward.

Quite a few teams above us have won their close ones so our position isn't a true assessment of our chances.

[DubDee 23,454]

Slightly off topic but Yze might get the wooden spoon in his first season as coach

Sad to see but most of his team are out injured.  Hope he gets the full season next year at least as they are still bottoming out

[Jibroni 4,788]

Its a huge ask but if we can knock off the Dockers there is no reason why we cannot make Top 4.

[roy11 3,394]

 

To make it a little more interesting for Brisbane

[Engorged Onion 10,037]

Just now, roy11 said:

 

To make it a little more interesting for Brisbane

Oooof!

I'm slightly pleased

[Gawndy the Great 8,694]

Generally speaking 16 wins gets you top 4. We are on 10 and have 6 games to go. Also this year the comp is a little more even so it maybe that 15 games is a lock for top 4. Other than Sydney, the run home is wide open. 

We have a very tough draw, which ultimately what you want. However our run home form of the last 2 years has not been great. 

Still think we'll struggle to make the 8 with a 2-4 or 3-3 the most likely result. I think this year 13 wins is top 8.