The midfield numbers behind staggering drop-off

[beelzebub 23,352]

2 hours ago, bing181 said:

Injuries or equivalent.

I know you get bonus points on Demonland for far-flung conjecture, but in the vast majority of cases the obvious reason is the reason. As they apparently tell medical students "when you hear the sound of hooves, think horses not zebras".

This coupled with the fact that injuries/lack of preseason etc are random events over which we have no control. Trouble is, our species deals very badly with randomness, we need order and control. So we look for patterns where none exist, but at least it reassures us by giving us a sense of agency, of being able to "do something". Even the question here, "who's responsible?" underscores this as it presupposes that someone is indeed responsible, when that's far from necessarily being the case.

And I'm not even going to start on how bad we are at distinguishing causations from correlation.

It's injuries, loss of players, etc.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.

Just injuries ? Really ..

Whilst i agree we've been somewhat cruelled it's a stretch to not acknowledge our gameplan.

Some of our demise is self inflicted, some at the whim of gods.

[praha 11,240]

That is coach-killing territory. It's the kind of drop off you'd experience from losing key personnel and also probably your coach. Think Richmond this year. Or Hawthorn in 2022. You're talking key resource changes.

I'm thinking Goodwin still needs one more pre-season to turn it around but the football department might be really close to the cliff here. I'm not sure he even survives the year unless his and his team's coaching improves. That's not to say I'm calling for that personally, but the club is one really bad loss away from the board stepping in. We're looking at a a sub-20k crowd this Saturday night, a loss could really up the volume on the jungle drums. I don't think we'll lose though.

Missed pre-seasons, and losing Brayshaw... you can't justify that drop-off even with those. Especially when you consider how we started the season with really strong wins. The drop off is holistic across the season and reflective of broader issues. Melbourne can't be the only team that just goes from being top 2 in multiple statistics, to bottom third and literally all of them, after a single pre-season. That's a major red flag.

Edited June 18 by praha

[praha 11,240]

5 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Our forward issues are diabolical but our midfield problems aren’t far behind at all. We’ve gone from a club with a questionable forward line but a great midfield and defence to a club with a poor forward line, a poor midfield and an average defence. Sitting 11th is about right.

 

11th is generous. We're much closer to Adelaide than we are to the Bulldogs. Or even Hawthorn.

[poita 3,902]

4 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Not one of young players (that have played at least 1 season) have improved this year. That bodes poorly for the future

I would struggle to name a player on the entire list who has improved since 2021. Maybe Rivers. The majority of the rest have plateaued or regressed significantly.

Adding McVee, Van Rooyen and Windsor across three years (also a poor result) doesn't come close to offsetting the drop off in performance of the senior players. And the reality is that none of our 28+ year olds (ie most of our rapidly aging list) are going to recover lost ground at this stage of their careers.

[beelzebub 23,352]

23 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

yep

if i was a board member wanting to question the football dept - and really i wouldn't want to be, as 'football' would not be my area of expertise - then the questions would be going to richardson as the head of football

• game plan; why has the coaching staff changed from something that was working - three top four finishes in a row - to something that now clearly isn't
• medical staff; why the apparent lack of ability to run games out after years of being one of the fittest teams in the competition
• recruiting staff; have we brought the right players in to execute the game plan as required by the coaching staff?

Love to know what our board is doing.

Questions surely are being asked....drafted at least.??

[whatwhat say what 22,745]

3 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Love to know what our board is doing.

Questions surely are being asked....drafted at least.??

the board's role is not managing the day to day of the football department

when boards do that it's generally disastrous 

[John Demonic 5,791]

24 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Just injuries ? Really ..

Whilst i agree we've been somewhat cruelled it's a stretch to not acknowledge our gameplan.

Some of our demise is self inflicted, some at the whim of gods.

I blame Revolver Lounge

[beelzebub 23,352]

3 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

the board's role is not managing the day to day of the football department

when boards do that it's generally disastrous 

Not talking about day to day...more a wtf is happening.

Wheels are falling off...they are.

[Ouch! 2,262]

3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Who would've thought that a player that's been taken away from his natural position, a position that objectively made us a better team from 2020 onwards, has gone backwards.

 

I also think that we looked better when Brayshaw played as a defensive wing, and we looked to attack through Langdon's wing. we also might have had Hunt on that half back as well, but we looked to run and carry and were a lot more attacking albeit one sided. 
Don't think we've looked as dominant down the wings when we bought Hunter in on the other wing and balance it up.

[WERRIDEE 5,473]

It's Oliver gone from superstar to dud in 6 months. Needs to lift especially with Petracca out for the year. Interesting to see

how Tholstrup goes considering he plays a similar role to Trac. A lot to ask from him but hopefully he has a good last half of the season.

[praha 11,240]

9 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

It's Oliver gone from superstar to dud in 6 months. Needs to lift especially with Petracca out for the year. Interesting to see

how Tholstrup goes considering he plays a similar role to Trac. A lot to ask from him but hopefully he has a good last half of the season.

need to stick with Tholstrup. For multiple weeks. If he's not playing this week I'll be really disheartened.

[Colm 2,151]

There clearly a wide range of reasons for our midfield drop off. Oliver being so down on form, the return of the tagger has also meant teams are able to tag Trac. Previously when teams tagged Trac, Oliver would have a field day and vice versa. 
Losing Gus has clearly had a big impact too. 
Id love to see comprehensive state on our overall fitness from last year to this. Feels like we just aren’t fit enough this year. 
New game plan, overall coaching, strength & conditioning and player development all probably require looking at. 
No one can look at those stats and say some level of change isn’t required. 

[Dee Viney Intervention 1,938]

This week we are on a of a hiding to nothing. If we win well it was just against North. If we lose then the knives will sharpen even more. 
 Yes we have been affected by injuries this year but so have teams like C,C,C,Collingw (sorry can’t drop the C Bomb) and Richmond. However those mentioned play with enthusiasm, passion and have a discernible plan. I can’t say the same about is unfortunately.
 For me I would like to have a look at the kids and inject some passion and enthusiasm into the group and freshen it up. Going forward we need to have a real good look at the list and see who will be a part of the solution and not a part of the problem. Will be an interesting off season for me where we need to have a bit of a cull of the NQR talls, the injury prone and those that won’t embrace physical contact. 
We need to balance up the list and stop putting square pegs in round holes. Our list depth and quality has been exposed and we need to inject midfielders with speed and skill into the club to keep us thereabouts. Happy to back a few steps to go forward. I just want to see “Demon Spirit “ to see out 2024 and see where that takes us. 

[beelzebub 23,352]

3 minutes ago, Dee Viney Intervention said:

This week we are on a of a hiding to nothing. If we win well it was just against North. If we lose then the knives will sharpen even more. 
 Yes we have been affected by injuries this year but so have teams like C,C,C,Collingw (sorry can’t drop the C Bomb) and Richmond. However those mentioned play with enthusiasm, passion and have a discernible plan. I can’t say the same about is unfortunately.
 For me I would like to have a look at the kids and inject some passion and enthusiasm into the group and freshen it up. Going forward we need to have a real good look at the list and see who will be a part of the solution and not a part of the problem. Will be an interesting off season for me where we need to have a bit of a cull of the NQR talls, the injury prone and those that won’t embrace physical contact. 
We need to balance up the list and stop putting square pegs in round holes. Our list depth and quality has been exposed and we need to inject midfielders with speed and skill into the club to keep us thereabouts. Happy to back a few steps to go forward. I just want to see “Demon Spirit “ to see out 2024 and see where that takes us. 

The first game of 25 is this Sat night.  We need to look at it as that and select accordingly.

No silverware on offer ( to us ) this year.

Play the kids... let them run...play with verve and flair.  Worry about the scoreboard later.

Lets get some synergy , some cohesion , ffs ...something positive happening and grow that 

Go Dees

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

12 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

yep

if i was a board member wanting to question the football dept - and really i wouldn't want to be, as 'football' would not be my area of expertise - then the questions would be going to richardson as the head of football

• game plan; why has the coaching staff changed from something that was working - three top four finishes in a row - to something that now clearly isn't
• medical staff; why the apparent lack of ability to run games out after years of being one of the fittest teams in the competition
• recruiting staff; have we brought the right players in to execute the game plan as required by the coaching staff?

Good questions Why. Re: the first one I think the why is known, we were getting to finals and falling just short despite winning contest and I50s etc. The theory was our method to winning those things was causing fatigue and resulting in many of our I50 entries being poor, into a congested forward line etc. This was resulting in lower score conversions, eg, more rebound 50s for the opposition and difficult shots at goal taken by fatigued players. 

It's time to accept that the gameplan change isn't working and move to improve it.

12 hours ago, Demonsone said:

The last point is critical! Premiership teams bring in players who will improve the list, look at what they got in 22/23 and the majority were not getting games at their previous clubs, except for Hunter who can’t kick! Billings another one, Shache god help us, Fullerton who?? Mcadam jury is still out 

I think we've been hamstrung by the salaray cap the last couple of years. We got in who we could. Losing LJ was a big blow and taking the gamble on Grundy only to give up at Rd 17 a horrific own goal. 

Hunter was actually pretty good in 22/23 (though i agree he can't kick over a jam tin)

[Kent 2,909]

12 hours ago, praha said:

That is coach-killing territory. It's the kind of drop off you'd experience from losing key personnel and also probably your coach. Think Richmond this year. Or Hawthorn in 2022. You're talking key resource changes.

I'm thinking Goodwin still needs one more pre-season to turn it around but the football department might be really close to the cliff here. I'm not sure he even survives the year unless his and his team's coaching improves. That's not to say I'm calling for that personally, but the club is one really bad loss away from the board stepping in. We're looking at a a sub-20k crowd this Saturday night, a loss could really up the volume on the jungle drums. I don't think we'll lose though.

Missed pre-seasons, and losing Brayshaw... you can't justify that drop-off even with those. Especially when you consider how we started the season with really strong wins. The drop off is holistic across the season and reflective of broader issues. Melbourne can't be the only team that just goes from being top 2 in multiple statistics, to bottom third and literally all of them, after a single pre-season. That's a major red flag.

Its the appalling lack of effort and skill that disturbs me mostly

Either the coach has lost the players or the players struggle with the coaches game plan and end up dejected and listless which is what I see on the field

[whatwhat say what 22,745]

9 minutes ago, Dee*ceiving said:

Good questions Why. Re: the first one I think the why is known, we were getting to finals and falling just short despite winning contest and I50s etc. The theory was our method to winning those things was causing fatigue and resulting in many of our I50 entries being poor, into a congested forward line etc. This was resulting in lower score conversions, eg, more rebound 50s for the opposition and difficult shots at goal taken by fatigued players. 

It's time to accept that the gameplan change isn't working and move to improve it.

I think we've been hamstrung by the salaray cap the last couple of years. We got in who we could. Losing LJ was a big blow and taking the gamble on Grundy only to give up at Rd 17 a horrific own goal. 

Hunter was actually pretty good in 22/23 (though i agree he can't kick over a jam tin)

thanks

follow up to that response would be along the lines of why such a a wholesale change instead of tinkering with it because, as you say, it isn't working; how is it going to improve, as i don't think you can go back to the well with the changes that have been made to the side's make-up

imo losing dog into losing gus in consecutive years was a hammer blow on the side

and agreed, hunter has had a shocking 2024 but was better than jj or sparrow in first two seasons with us because he played a role that actually benefited our side

[titan_uranus 25,014]

It's been pretty clear to most of us (sorry @binman) all year that our midfield has been down.

I don't agree though with anyone who tries to argue that there's one singular reason for it. IMO, as things almost always are, it's multi-faceted. I'd argue the following have all contributed:

1. We intended to see some of the OP quoted stats decrease this year by changing the way we play. For example, we intended to see a decrease in our inside 50 differential, our time in forward half differential, and probably our clearance and CP numbers, because we wanted to focus more on scoring from turnover and from our defensive half and less on generating repeat inside 50s from which we struggled to generate good scoring shots.
2. Brayshaw's retirement.
3. Oliver's lack of pre-season.
4. Viney's drop off in form.
5. Sparrow's failure to take the next step in his development.
6. Our various forward line woes which have required us to play Petracca forward more than previously.
7. Salem training as a mid over the pre-season but then getting injured and failing to reintegrate into the middle on his return.
8. Previous list management - we do not have enough midfielders on our list and have not brought enough in, by draft, trade or FA, over the last few years

In my view, the top 3 contribute the majority of the decline. We were happy to cop moderate reductions in some of these stats but losing Brayshaw late and Oliver not being able to reach his best form have exacerbated those reductions significantly.

[Wrecker46 2,969]

19 hours ago, stinga said:

 Don't even know if we have a sprint coach.  

Stafford

[Dr. Gonzo 24,209]

21 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

A key argument made by those defending the performance of the midfield has been that the scores from clearances have been net positive. But a lot of that is partly luck (good goal kicking and/or good forward play in the stoppages). The raw clearance number and centre clearance numbers are a key part of our game we need to turnaround.

Plus, we are defending way too deep when the opposition has the ball inside our 50. We need to squeeze up and take the risk of the ball getting out the back.

Yes, I don't think scores from clearance is really the key metric here. Clearance allows teams to play the territory game so while they may not score direct from clearance it gives them more inside 50s and more time in forward half which leads to more scoring opportunities.

[Dee*ceiving 1,674]

On 19/06/2024 at 09:20, whatwhat say what said:

thanks

follow up to that response would be along the lines of why such a a wholesale change instead of tinkering with it because, as you say, it isn't working; how is it going to improve, as i don't think you can go back to the well with the changes that have been made to the side's make-up

imo losing dog into losing gus in consecutive years was a hammer blow on the side

and agreed, hunter has had a shocking 2024 but was better than jj or sparrow in first two seasons with us because he played a role that actually benefited our side

That's the part that annoys me as well. Why the wholesale change? As a close observer I would agree we've vastly overcorrected. 

Not sure how intentional it was, but it's happened. Then the 3 contested bulls in the middle have presented a range of other challenges to our midfield effectiveness 

• Tracc, needed up forward then mauled by a Collingwood player 
• Clarrie, no preseason, hand injury & potentially mental health/behavioural concerns 
• Viney, seemingly carrying injuries since Rd 4 or 5 

 

[whatwhat say what 22,745]

7 minutes ago, Dee*ceiving said:

That's the part that annoys me as well. Why the wholesale change? As a close observer I would agree we've vastly overcorrected. 

Not sure how intentional it was, but it's happened. Then the 3 contested bulls in the middle have presented a range of other challenges to our midfield effectiveness 

• Tracc, needed up forward then mauled by a Collingwood player 
• Clarrie, no preseason, hand injury & potentially mental health/behavioural concerns 
• Viney, seemingly carrying injuries since Rd 4 or 5 

 

plus traded out an inside type (harmes) and brought in an outside type (billings) AND lost gus immediately prior to season start