Dee-cline: The midfield numbers behind staggering drop-off

Melbourne's midfield numbers have gone from one of the best in the AFL last season to one of the worst. What's happened?

Melbourne's Midfield Decline - Contest
Differentials	2024	2023
Clearances	15th	5th
Centre Bounce Clearances	15th	6th
Midfield Contested Possessions	10th	1st
Midfield Groundballs	14th	8th
Midfield Pressure Rating	12th	7th

Melbourne's Midfield Decline - Territory
	2024	2023
Time in Forward Half Diff	14th	2nd
Inside 50 Diff	15th	2nd
Forward Half Intercepts	12th	1st

Melbourne's Midfield - Player Ratings
	Rank
Max Gawn	6th
Christian Petracca	10th
Jack Viney	35th
Clayton Oliver	83rd
Alex Neal-Bullen	87th
Tom Sparrow	280th
Caleb Windsor	281st
Ed Langdon	287th

If it were possible, I am even more depressed

This has been the real drop-off this season - it has been there to see most of the year - not 'culture' or fitness as some less informed, supposed footy 'experts' have banged on about. Been saying all year that Brayshaw has been a big loss, and if that was a known situation when Jordan was looking elsewhere, there would have been a bigger case for him to stay. Clarrie has clearly been well below his best. Now Trac gone for season, and it is time to try the likes of Rivers, McVee, Nibbler more seriously through the middle. The rest of our on field misfortunes stems largely from here...

A key argument made by those defending the performance of the midfield has been that the scores from clearances have been net positive. But a lot of that is partly luck (good goal kicking and/or good forward play in the stoppages). The raw clearance number and centre clearance numbers are a key part of our game we need to turnaround.

Plus, we are defending way too deep when the opposition has the ball inside our 50. We need to squeeze up and take the risk of the ball getting out the back.

Our forward issues are diabolical but our midfield problems aren’t far behind at all. We’ve gone from a club with a questionable forward line but a great midfield and defence to a club with a poor forward line, a poor midfield and an average defence. Sitting 11th is about right.

 

Our DNA is contest and defence

We have lost contest by a wide margin this year.

Some here talk about post-clearance possession and slingshot off the backline but the reality is we have been poor in the midfield all year. Winning clearance and/or helping our defence springboard forward.

Oliver is down, Viney appears to be playing injured, Petracca has been needed forward to prop up the Petty experiment. Pickett shows some excitement when he goes in there but doesn't impact enough. Rivers hasn't been allowed in there. Salem's form has been very patchy.

One big failure it would seem is how poorly the 'second tier' or 'up and coming' midfield has been playing.

Sparrow is a big one. I am a fan but his output has been terrible. We seem to be using him in shut down roles but maybe we are robbing ourselves. Laurie hasn't come on as we would have expected.

And then there is Bowey who has been inured for a large part of the year, Spargo who hasn't played since rd 1, Howes who is being asked to do a lot, McVee who has lost a lot of his drive...

 

I got to thinking which players have improved this year.

TMac, JvR, ANB, Maybe Max

Those that have gone backwards

Petty, Viney, May, Langdon, McVee, Fritsch, Oliver, Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Spargo, Hunter

This is our problem in a nutshell

The same or thereabouts

Turner, Rivers, Lever, Bowey, Pickett, Petracca

Not one of young players (that have played at least 1 season) have improved this year. That bodes poorly for the future

So who is responsible for this disaster?? 

I miss Yze.

Welcome to the Western Bulldogs Tom Sparrow

48 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Our DNA is contest and defence

We have lost contest by a wide margin this year.

Some here talk about post-clearance possession and slingshot off the backline but the reality is we have been poor in the midfield all year. Winning clearance and/or helping our defence springboard forward.

Oliver is down, Viney appears to be playing injured, Petracca has been needed forward to prop up the Petty experiment. Pickett shows some excitement when he goes in there but doesn't impact enough. Rivers hasn't been allowed in there. Salem's form has been very patchy.

One big failure it would seem is how poorly the 'second tier' or 'up and coming' midfield has been playing.

Sparrow is a big one. I am a fan but his output has been terrible. We seem to be using him in shut down roles but maybe we are robbing ourselves. Laurie hasn't come on as we would have expected.

And then there is Bowey who has been inured for a large part of the year, Spargo who hasn't played since rd 1, Howes who is being asked to do a lot, McVee who has lost a lot of his drive...

 

I got to thinking which players have improved this year.

TMac, JvR, ANB, Maybe Max

Those that have gone backwards

Petty, Viney, May, Langdon, McVee, Fritsch, Oliver, Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Spargo, Hunter

This is our problem in a nutshell

The same or thereabouts

Turner, Rivers, Lever, Bowey, Pickett, Petracca

Not one of young players (that have played at least 1 season) have improved this year. That bodes poorly for the future

Your point stands, but...

Pickett has improved. I think you are harsh on Fritsch, Langdon and McVee, who are about the same. Salem is also about the same and has not been good since 2021. (Max is having a better year but I think the 'improvement' is due to being a solo ruck.) And Viney is actually rating more this year statistically (although I struggle to believe it).

Sparrow has had much fewer centre bounce attendances but has been ordinary regardless.

"There are 99 reasons that is wrong with the club and the midfield is not one of them"

🤣🤣

57 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

So who is responsible for this disaster?? 

Stafford. 😆 

7 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

"There are 99 reasons that is wrong with the club and the midfield is not one of them"

🤣🤣

Please elaborate

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Those that have gone backwards

Petty, Viney, May, Langdon, McVee, Fritsch, Oliver, Salem, Chandler, Sparrow, Spargo, Hunter

This is our problem in a nutshell

 

Who would've thought that a player that's been taken away from his natural position, a position that objectively made us a better team from 2020 onwards, has gone backwards.

 

Just my opinions and gradings but here's how I rank our midfielders in 2024 compared to 2021-2023 era.

Oliver: Then A+, now C

Trac: Then A+, now A 

Viney: Then B+, now C

Langdon: Then B, now C

Hunter: Then C, now injured

Harmes and Jordon: Then C, now /

Windsor: Then /, Now C+ (but will be A grade in time)

Obviously a lot of factors go into the drop offs but it's hard to expect to still have a great midfield when literally every player in there has dropped off over time or left the club. ANB and Kosi have helped a little bit in patches, but it is not enough.

Thank goodness Max is still A+ because the moment he starts to decline, we're in serious trouble. 

 

Windsor has got pace, but that doesn't count at clearances.   Picket has pace but doesn't have the build of a permanent midfielder, in any case he is needed down forward.  All the successful sides have pace through the midfield, but I can't see where it is going to come from.  There's no pacy midfield options at Casey that I'm aware of.  Chandler is quick in a straight line but struggles to maneuver quickly and is small for a midfield role.  McAdam might be quick but has no tank. Rivers is a bit quicker but not exceptionally.  Don't even know if we have a sprint coach.  

1 hour ago, Demonsone said:

So who is responsible for this disaster?? 

Injuries or equivalent.

I know you get bonus points on Demonland for far-flung conjecture, but in the vast majority of cases the obvious reason is the reason. As they apparently tell medical students "when you hear the sound of hooves, think horses not zebras".

This coupled with the fact that injuries/lack of preseason etc are random events over which we have no control. Trouble is, our species deals very badly with randomness, we need order and control. So we look for patterns where none exist, but at least it reassures us by giving us a sense of agency, of being able to "do something". Even the question here, "who's responsible?" underscores this as it presupposes that someone is indeed responsible, when that's far from necessarily being the case.

And I'm not even going to start on how bad we are at distinguishing causations from correlation.

It's injuries, loss of players, etc.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.

So who is responsible for this down turn, game plan, coaches eg Mcquallter, Goodwin, player driven.. 

12 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

So who is responsible for this down turn, game plan, coaches eg Mcquallter, Goodwin, player driven.. 

it's never one simple factor; there's a variety of reasons at play

3 hours ago, Pipefitter said:

Stafford. 😆 

I think you’ll find it’s actually Bohdan Babijczuk.

Edited June 18, 2024Jun 18 by Mach5

6 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

it's never one simple factor; there's a variety of reasons at play

Agreed. Aging players, limited pre-season to some, new midfield coach, game plan change etc. However, if you were a board member looking at this, there’s three accountable people - McQualter, Goodwin and Richardson.

3 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

"There are 99 reasons that is wrong with the club and the midfield is not one of them"

🤣🤣

So there's a 100 things.... cos the Midfield is definitely one of them !!

Just now, At the break of Gawn said:

Agreed. Aging players, limited pre-season to some, new midfield coach, game plan change etc. However, if you were a board member looking at this, there’s three accountable people - McQualter, Goodwin and Richardson.

yep

if i was a board member wanting to question the football dept - and really i wouldn't want to be, as 'football' would not be my area of expertise - then the questions would be going to richardson as the head of football

• game plan; why has the coaching staff changed from something that was working - three top four finishes in a row - to something that now clearly isn't
• medical staff; why the apparent lack of ability to run games out after years of being one of the fittest teams in the competition
• recruiting staff; have we brought the right players in to execute the game plan as required by the coaching staff?

28 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

So who is responsible for this down turn, game plan, coaches eg Mcquallter, Goodwin, player driven.. 

Yes

3 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

yep

if i was a board member wanting to question the football dept - and really i wouldn't want to be, as 'football' would not be my area of expertise - then the questions would be going to richardson as the head of football

• game plan; why has the coaching staff changed from something that was working - three top four finishes in a row - to something that now clearly isn't
• medical staff; why the apparent lack of ability to run games out after years of being one of the fittest teams in the competition
• recruiting staff; have we brought the right players in to execute the game plan as required by the coaching staff?

The last point is critical! Premiership teams bring in players who will improve the list, look at what they got in 22/23 and the majority were not getting games at their previous clubs, except for Hunter who can’t kick! Billings another one, Shache god help us, Fullerton who?? Mcadam jury is still out