NON-MFC: Round 06

[BDA 22,238]

Cripps throws the ball more often than he actually handballs it.

[ANG13 1,974]

1 minute ago, BDA said:

Cripps throws the ball more often than he actually handballs it.

And amazingly never gets called for it. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,145]

22 minutes ago, ANG13 said:

And amazingly never gets called for it. 

Add another one 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

3 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Please Port, please do what the Crows couldn’t do last night, ie. beat a team we all heartily hate. Thanks in advance 👍🏽

Please Giants, please do what the Crows (and Port) couldn’t do last night (and this afternoon), ie. beat a team we all heartily hate. Thanks in advance 👍🏽

[monoccular 17,305]

5 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Unless there's a freak occurance in the West Coast v Fremantle game, we're looking at a round 6 ladder with five teams on one win or fewer. Played out over a season that would mean just three or four wins each by the end.

I've been looking over past ladders to find an example of such a long 'tail' to the ladder. For a moment I thought 2020 (two teams with 3 wins, three teams with 5 wins) but of course that was Covid-restricted and there were only 17 games.

Other than that, the weakest tails I've found are;

2018, with Carlton on two wins and three other clubs with 5 or 4.

2012 have a five-team tail, with the Giants and Suns doing their early-career tanking strategy, Melbourne close to their worst, and Port & the Dogs only managing 5 wins. Incredibly, one up from that pile of failure, 13th place on the ladder had ten wins, and it took 14 wins just to make the finals.

This could be a very skewed season where clocking through the 'regulation' wins becomes very important for sorting the finals order when 16 wins might not even be top 4 finish, and an alarming share of the games are the proverbial '8-point' games.

As it stands, 4-2 is barely enough to keep us in the 8, but considering the level of disruption and missing/underdone players going into the season, we've done well to be in that leading pack.

We should thank Richmond for their effort against Sydney and politely but firmly ensure they don't do it against us next round!

But we really need to further dilute the talent pool with another team (which will also further compromise the competition with another bye) 

4 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Would you want your product, associated with the ire of supporters around the country whom you are supposed to be courting? But in the end I guess the marketing take would be - don't care about the 95% of people you [censored] off, care about the 5% you convert. Are there any marketing guru's on here?

I think the 95% probably don’t give the AFL as much as the 5% - money $$$$$

[Gawndy the Great 9,009]

If the Blues cannot win a premiership with this side then it’ll be the biggest waste of Curnow/McKay. The Blues look really impressive. 

[Redleg 40,007]

Pies now Blues. Wonderful.

[Dee Zephyr 19,145]

Momentum swings in full flight 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

WTF Callum Brown?!!! How did he miss that? 😭

[danielE288 774]

Today couldn't have gone much worse tbh. 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

1 minute ago, Redleg said:

Pies now Blues. Wonderful.

You left out 🤮 Essendon 🤮

[Redleg 40,007]

Just now, WalkingCivilWar said:

You left out 🤮 Essendon 🤮

Oh yes the Trifecta. 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

1 minute ago, danielE288 said:

Today couldn't have gone much worse tbh. 

It still can get worse… Geelong have yet to play. 

[danielE288 774]

God help us all 

[Chook 14,988]

The Blues are running rampant. So much for the premiership favourites GWS! Who should I mozz next?

Edited April 20 by Chook

[Clintosaurus 7,543]

HQ be very happy with Bummers, Filth and Cheats all doing well.

[Red and Bluebeard 2,075]

On 19/04/2024 at 12:41, binman said:

Not taking a pot shot at you BBP, but your post highlights a real bug bear of mine. 

As even occasional dl posters would know, I'm of the view that the impact of fatigue (what ever its causes may be) on performance is routinely ignored.

And if it is ignored, any subsequent assessment or analysis is fundamentally flawed.

My bug bear is this perspective (not mine specifically, but in the general sense) is often misrepresented.

The suggestion or implication being that fatigue is used as an excuse and that other factors (eg coaching, tactics, flaws in method, strength of opponent etc etc) are ignored or given short shrift.

A related bug bear is the conflation of reasons for poor performance with excuses for poor performance. Saying fatigue was a factor in our loss to the lions is not making an excuse, it is suggesting a possible causal factor.

So, for example, there are a number of posters, me included, who have suggested fatgue was a factor in our performance against the lions.

But I have not read a single post that solely or mostly blamed our recent schedule for our loss to Brisbane. 

Personally I'm of the view it was a significant factor, but of course far from the only factor.

 I'm probably an outlier, but I also think it was the most significant factor - because pretty much any other factor is exacerbated by fatigue.

For example, in the simplest terms we lost because the lions were much harder at it than us, as evidenced by being smashed for cps, pressure and tackles. No argument there.

But logically, tackling, applying elite pressure and winning contested possessions is a real challeng if across the board players are fatgued.

On the saints performance I 100% think fatigue was a significant factor in, and one of the reasons for, their performance.

I would argue if someone doesn’t, then, to be completely frank, they do not understand AFL football circa 2024.

But is fatigue an excuse for their performance? No.

And in fact, if you accept fatigue was a factor in both ours and the saints performance, there is another data point to consider.

Playing a team at their level, the saints were completely and utterly woeful. Beaten in every quarter, never in the game, they were ultimately smashed by 10 goals and despite being one of the most defensive teams in the AFL conceded a crazy 124 points. Even factoring in the fatigue it was a shocking performance.

Coming of our 5 day break, we were able to beat crows on their home deck despite completely hitting the wall in the last quarter. Impressive.

We then play the lions, and whilst we had a seven day break, we were clearly feeling the impact of 4 games in 19 days and were obviously fatigued.

Like the saints, we also played a team at our level, one that was up and about and as evidenced by their numbers, not fatigued.

Despite that we kept one of the best offences to 82 points and only lost by 22 points.

Sure, we played poorly, but analysed through that lens, suddenly the performance does not look so bad.

Another great analysis Binman. I think it is also worth remembering that there are always unpredicatable factors at play as well --- an injury, a burst of form (or a sudden loss of it), a bad bounce, an umpire's call or a spilled mark. One of the key attractions of Aussie rules as a sport is that it is played with a ball that does not always bounce predictably, and that seems to keep an element of randomness in the outcomes. When I go along each game, I always want the Dees to win, but at another level, I know that it will not always be the case. If you like, I know we will lose some games each season,  but never the next one :-) While we tend to win more than we lose these days, I can vividly recall times when that was not the case, and so when we won back then, it was always against the odds.

I think there are always going to be some occasions which defy analysis despite your excellent work, ie "that was just the way the ball bounced".

FWIW That is why the 2021 finals series was so special -- not just the drought-breaking aspect, worthy enough in its own right, but also because we handed out three drubbings, seemingly getting better each game. That is stuff of dreams!

[Demonland 70,238]

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,145]

4 minutes ago, Chook said:

Who should I mozz next?

Richmond 

[WalkingCivilWar 39,256]

The commentators are loving this. 🤮

[Sir Why You Little 36,588]

0 Tips so far this Round 

Awful Results 😡

[binman 41,931]

10 minutes ago, Chook said:

The Blues are running rampant. So much for the premiership favourites GWS! Who should I mozz next?

50 minutes is a long time in football.

[binman 41,931]

Greene is gawn

 

[KLV 1,758]

Coming here to metaphorically vomit. Saw the score Collingwood v Port, with port comfortably ahead, only to see later the unfortunate result. Now I tune in to Carlton v gws, last time I looked gws comfortably ahead, and now same flipping thing happening. 
with Essendon winning last night, making this a putrid weekend of football.

 

[Roost it far 7,362]

For us to beat the Blues I reckon we need McAdam playing well, Oliver close to his best and Petty kicking goals. Big game coming up