The Pick 1 Thread

[drysdale demon 4,837]

10 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

Ok, your dck is bigger than mine. But you missed my point completely

I wouldn't think you have a point to make stiffy

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

38 minutes ago, drysdale demon said:

I wouldn't think you have a point to make stiffy

FMD, you must be real fun at parties 🥱

[drysdale demon 4,837]

Just now, Stiff Arm said:

FMD, you must be real fun at parties 🥱

A laugh a minute stiffy, I can keep you going for hours.

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

Came here for news or updates, Viagra talk is just as good 😊

Edited October 14, 2023 by Dee Zephyr

[Little Goffy 14,750]

14 hours ago, mo64 said:

Curtin plays at Casey all year whilst Reid wins the Eagles BnF. They'd be asking for Curtin + 2 top 5 picks for Reid.

That doesn't clarify which player is better, though!

Most of our current best 22 would make a top-3 finish in the Eagles BnF. I'm not even joking.

Personally I'm shocked that West Coast haven't done a lot more to try to bring in a least a few respectable strong bodies to fill out their midfield. Or maybe they have and they are just so on the nose that nobody will go?

Bringing Reid in as currently their only selection in the first round is just cruel to the kid.

I wonder what it would take to get West Coast's future first for 2024?

[Jibroni 5,035]

7 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

That doesn't clarify which player is better, though!

Most of our current best 22 would make a top-3 finish in the Eagles BnF. I'm not even joking.

Personally I'm shocked that West Coast haven't done a lot more to try to bring in a least a few respectable strong bodies to fill out their midfield. Or maybe they have and they are just so on the nose that nobody will go?

Bringing Reid in as currently their only selection in the first round is just cruel to the kid.

I wonder what it would take to get West Coast's future first for 2024?

I think with a healthy list they are not that bad, I would back them to finish higher than North next year and win at least 5-6 games. They also drafted a few kids last year.

[TRIGON 4,792]

Dan Curtain:

• Similar build to, slightly larger frame then, THE BONT.
• Match reports suggest that he can impact games.
• Tipped to go around the same pick in the draft. 

Could he be our 'Bont"? But let's not call him 'the Curt'...security may mishear us and eject us from the stadium.

[Redleg 41,936]

11 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

Dan Curtain:

• Similar build to, slightly larger frame then, THE BONT.
• Match reports suggest that he can impact games.
• Tipped to go around the same pick in the draft. 

Could he be our 'Bont"? But let's not call him 'the Curt'...security may mishear us and eject us from the stadium.

If he is that good and available, then take him.

Either swap him for Reid at some stage, or at least try and convince him to stay on after initial 3 years. If he is playing finals with us and WC are say middle of the ladder, he might be happy to stay.

[BDA 23,016]

These kids demanding to be drafted to their home state. They should head interstate and give it a try. They might like it. New sights to see and experience An entirely new pool of women to try to impress if nothing else. 

[drysdale demon 4,837]

1 hour ago, Jibroni said:

I think with a healthy list they are not that bad, I would back them to finish higher than North next year and win at least 5-6 games. They also drafted a few kids last year.

I would be surprised if North didn't win more than 5 or 6 games next year

[ChaserJ 5,169]

Interesting take from Craig O' Donoghue in the West today following the Brockman trade:

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/craig-odonoghue-west-coast-eagles-will-be-chasing-more-picks-after-giving-two-away-for-tyler-brockman-c-12203711

"As it stands, they have selections 1, 23, 37 and 58 in a draft where just over 50 players are tipped to be chosen. When you add Academy and father-son selections to the draft, picks 23 and beyond will fall down the table.

 

Which means splitting picks must be high on West Coast’s agenda."

 

The Eagles are projecting to take 4 picks in the draft this year.  In a shallow pool, they'd probably be hoping that they don't need to use 58. Their 2nd pick at 23 will likely be in the vicinity of pick 28 by the time academy & FS bidding is done.

Edited October 15, 2023 by ChaserJ

[Mach5 4,768]

15 hours ago, Watson11 said:

They got 2 premierships out of taking Judd at pick 2.  They will draft Reid and back themselves in to bouncing back pretty quickly.  They have never been this bad but they lack nothing in money, facilities, rabid supporters, and home umpiring advantage. And Reid could not have been clearer that he is happy to go there. 

Make that pick 3.

Don’t forget St Kilda taking Luke Ball at 2.

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

Just now, ChaserJ said:

Interesting take from Craig O' Donoghue in the West today following the Brockman trade:

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/craig-odonoghue-west-coast-eagles-will-be-chasing-more-picks-after-giving-two-away-for-tyler-brockman-c-12203711

"As it stands, they have selections 1, 23, 37 and 58 in a draft where just over 50 players are tipped to be chosen. When you add Academy and father-son selections to the draft, picks 23 and beyond will fall down the table.

 

Which means splitting picks must be high on West Coast’s agenda."

 

The Eagles are projecting to take 4 picks in the draft this year.  In a shallow pool, they'd probably be hoping that they don't need to use 58.

Yep, WCE should be using pick 1 to get at least 2 picks inside 10 or 15. A number of draft watchers say this year it drops off significantly after that

[Mach5 4,768]

22 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

Interesting take from Craig O' Donoghue in the West today following the Brockman trade:

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/craig-odonoghue-west-coast-eagles-will-be-chasing-more-picks-after-giving-two-away-for-tyler-brockman-c-12203711

"As it stands, they have selections 1, 23, 37 and 58 in a draft where just over 50 players are tipped to be chosen. When you add Academy and father-son selections to the draft, picks 23 and beyond will fall down the table.

 

Which means splitting picks must be high on West Coast’s agenda."

 

The Eagles are projecting to take 4 picks in the draft this year.  In a shallow pool, they'd probably be hoping that they don't need to use 58. Their 2nd pick at 23 will likely be in the vicinity of pick 28 by the time academy & FS bidding is done.

We acquired pick 11 for a reason. Geelong’s pick 7 changing hands would be our biggest concern, but unlikely as they’d still want to get back into the top dozen or so

Edited October 15, 2023 by Mach5

[ChaserJ 5,169]

It’s be worth seeing if there’s a way to bring GWS into the deal. Getting their pick from Richmond into the deal probably puts us over the top.

Agree that Geelong probably wouldn’t have an interest in getting involved.

[mo64 5,881]

I honestly think that North are playing games at the moment. WCE probably requested pick 2 or 3 plus another 1st rounder and a future 1st. North countered with 4 middling picks which wouldn't net the Eagles Curtin.

The Eagles seem set on Curtin, whilst wanting to leverage the no.1 pick. The only club that can guarantee that result is North. 

I reckon it ends up being Pick 2 + 2 late 1st round picks.

[Mach5 4,768]

1 hour ago, mo64 said:

I honestly think that North are playing games at the moment. WCE probably requested pick 2 or 3 plus another 1st rounder and a future 1st. North countered with 4 middling picks which wouldn't net the Eagles Curtin.

The Eagles seem set on Curtin, whilst wanting to leverage the no.1 pick. The only club that can guarantee that result is North. 

I reckon it ends up being Pick 2 + 2 late 1st round picks.

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14).

No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality.

Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return.

North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3.

Box seat.

If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

[Adam The God 30,603]

9 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14).

No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality.

Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return.

North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3.

Box seat.

If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

Agreed.

[mo64 5,881]

17 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14).

No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality.

Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return.

North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3.

Box seat.

If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

I'd love to have a wager on that. North are clearly in the box seat.

Our F1 could be 14-18. North's have far greater draft capital, and Eagles are guaranteed of getting Curtin with pick 2 or 3.

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

2 hours ago, mo64 said:

I honestly think that North are playing games at the moment. WCE probably requested pick 2 or 3 plus another 1st rounder and a future 1st. North countered with 4 middling picks which wouldn't net the Eagles Curtin.

The Eagles seem set on Curtin, whilst wanting to leverage the no.1 pick. The only club that can guarantee that result is North. 

I reckon it ends up being Pick 2 + 2 late 1st round picks.

If WCE are confident Curtain will still be there at 6, why would they use pick 2 on him and then only get 2 x late 1sts? Wouldn't it make sense to get 6, 11 and a 2024 late 1st from us and use 6 on Curtain? 

I think for Norf to get Reid, WCE they'll need to give up 2 + 3 for 1 + a 2nd or F2nd rounder and then trade 2 or 3 for a top 10 + a pick in the early teens. These could be future selections. WCE get Curtain, maybe Conner O'Sullivan and Archer Reid

If this happens, would we do 6 + 11 for 2? ie. McKercher or Duursma

[Macca 17,113]

I reckon there's a decent chance that most (or all) of the clubs know which players are the preferred choices of the other clubs (at least in the top 6 or 8) 

For instance, we moved up to pick 4* in the 2015 draft as the strong rumour was that Essendon were going to use either pick 5 or 6 on Oliver

All the top prospects would already have managers (by and large) so there'd be a lot of dialogue about.  Would be difficult to keep everything secretive

 

*Pick 4 was originally pick 3 but Mills was taken at pick 3 as an academy player by the Swans

[Mach5 4,768]

I think others may have pointed some version or this out previously, but WC are now very unlikely to trade pick 1 until the day of the draft, if they are to do it.

To elaborate- they will allow themselves enough time to feel like they have a clear understanding of how they expect the early picks to play out, i.e. if they really are hellbent on acquiring Curtin, doing their due diligence to reach a level of certainty that he will still be available at pick 6 before they pull the trigger.

They’d be mad to make a deal before this. There’ll obviously be a bit of faith required to believe their preferred targets are still available, but they gain no benefit by moving quickly.

[Demon Dynasty 17,130]

5 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I think WC would (should) be more concerned with getting 2 picks within the upper echelon of the draft, which seems to extend to around pick 12 (and not as far as our previously held pick 14).

No point getting another 3 picks that are technically first rounders if you judge the players likely to be available in that bracket as being of inferior quality.

Assuming all clubs rate players and the draft as a whole relatively similarly, that would mean a team like Geelong or Adelaide would be very unlikely to split their early-ish picks unless they are getting future picks in return.

North would be able to provide 2 picks in that bracket, but based on what they already have, they’d have to split 2 or 3, which I very much doubt they’ll do. And I don’t think pick 1 is worth even close to 2 & 3.

Box seat.

If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way (that they probably wouldn’t use anyway). Which will pull back into around 50 after points picks have been consumed.

Or 6, 11, F1 and a player for 1 & Darling (we pick up part of his contract a la Grundy but ultra minimum chips)?

Edited October 15, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[bing181 9,422]

8 hours ago, Mach5 said:

If WC trade pick 1 it’ll end up with us for 6, 11, F1, and I reckon with another later pick (58?) coming back our way

I just don't think our picks are high enough for them, especially that pick 6 ... no matter what we pair it with.

[Garbo 1,559]

Fact wc knocked back pick 4 from hawks and there first next year likely to be in the same range. I can’t see how our pick 6 and 11 this year plus our first next year would be enough.