The Pick 1 Thread

[Demon Disciple 12,536]

1 minute ago, chookrat said:

Haynes would be great, would free up Riv to play a bit more midfield.

Not for long, he’s 31.

[The Lobster Effect 899]

Everyone's talking about a hypothetical Haynes and pick 7 salary dump trade but I haven't heard us linked to him?

Plus I haven't heard that GWS have salary cap issues like GC last year.

[Supreme_Demon 4,141]

I am happy with either trying to obtain pick #1 to draft Harley Reid or keeping our early round draft picks for other young talent.

It would be kinda funny if the Eagles chose the Demons over the Kangaroos in a "mega deal" just in spite. 🤣

Quite entertaining all of this.

However, I would personally prefer we keep our options open as there is still lots of other extremely gifted young footballers we can draft.

Such as....

● Zane Duursma

● Colby McKercher

● Ryley Sanders

● Nick Watson

● Nate Caddy

● Connor O'Sullivan

● Darcy Wilson

 

So lots of options and possibilities! 🤔

 

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

I'd take Haynes and pick 7. Pick 6,7, 11, and a future first-rounder has to put us in the ballpark in getting Reid.

 

B: McVee (rookie a), May, Lever

HB: Rivers, Haynes, Bowey

 C: Langdon, Oliver, Hunter

HF: Petracca, van Rooyen, Reid

F: Fritsch, Petty, Pickett

FOLL: Gawn, Brayshaw, Viney

IC: Salem, Sparrow, Neal-Bullen, McAdam

SUB: Smith

 

Casey

B: K. Turner (rookie a), Tomlinson, Adams

HB: Howes, D. Turner, K. Brown (rookie a)

C: Woewodin, Laurie, Chandler

HF: Smith, McDonald, Moniz-Wakefield (rookie b)

F: Jefferson, B. Brown, Schache

FOLL: Fullerton, Spargo, Sestan (rookie a)

IC: Melksham , Verall (rookie a), Farris-White (rookie b), Draft pick

 

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

2 hours ago, The Lobster Effect said:

Everyone's talking about a hypothetical Haynes and pick 7 salary dump trade but I haven't heard us linked to him?

Plus I haven't heard that GWS have salary cap issues like GC last year.

Although we haven't been linked to him it has been mentioned that GWS want to salary cap dump Haynes with pick 7 the lure.

[Travy14 2,142]

6 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Although we haven't been linked to him it has been mentioned that GWS want to salary cap dump Haynes with pick 7 the lure.

Only on here, GWS have said they can keep Hayes and will not trade 7 as a salary dump

[mo64 5,910]

Received a message from a good source in Perth that West Coast have come to an agreement with North to trade pick 1. Full details of the trade weren't specified, but it seems logical given that North have picks 2 and 3.

What doesn't seem logical is our upgrade from pick 14 to 11. It was never going to be a deal breaker in getting pick 1, so something else must be on the cards.

[Travy14 2,142]

1 minute ago, mo64 said:

Received a message from a good source in Perth that West Coast have come to an agreement with North to trade pick 1. Full details of the trade weren't specified, but it seems logical given that North have picks 2 and 3.

What doesn't seem logical is our upgrade from pick 14 to 11. It was never going to be a deal breaker in getting pick 1, so something else must be on the cards.

I Wonder if we have eyes on Duursma, which I hope we do

[Wrecker46 3,130]

If we are making a play for the number 1 pick & Reid there are going to be alot of dissapointed people who want us to change our game plan. This would signify we are doubling down on it.

The bloke is a human battering ram that gets it forward at all costs. I haven't seen any evidence he kicks like Nick Daicos.

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

1 hour ago, Travy14 said:

Only on here, GWS have said they can keep Hayes and will not trade 7 as a salary dump

I could have sworn it was on AFL.com but I can't find it

Edited October 11, 2023 by WERRIDEE

[JeffWhitesShinguard 16]

Would West Coast be disincentivised to hand Reid to the Kangaroos (or Hawthorn) so as not to strengthen the clubs that are likely to be contending around the same time as them? 

If you're a developing club that's given the choice between trading with another developing club and one that's in the premiership window, I would have thought that trading with the stronger club is a strategically better option. 

Is this sort of consideration ever an input into trade decisions? 

Would obviously benefit Melbourne if that's the case here. 

[RyanD 290]

13 minutes ago, JeffWhitesShinguard said:

Would West Coast be disincentivised to hand Reid to the Kangaroos (or Hawthorn) so as not to strengthen the clubs that are likely to be contending around the same time as them? 

If you're a developing club that's given the choice between trading with another developing club and one that's in the premiership window, I would have thought that trading with the stronger club is a strategically better option. 

Is this sort of consideration ever an input into trade decisions? 

Would obviously benefit Melbourne if that's the case here. 

This tends to happen in the European leagues in soccer a lot, but doesn't seem to occur in the AFL. Definitely something that should be thought about more often. 

[Kent 2,920]

54 minutes ago, Wrecker46 said:

If we are making a play for the number 1 pick & Reid there are going to be alot of dissapointed people who want us to change our game plan. This would signify we are doubling down on it.

The bloke is a human battering ram that gets it forward at all costs. I haven't seen any evidence he kicks like Nick Daicos.

Thanks' for that Wrecker I'm one who will be disappointed

[Nascent 9,345]

LISTEN: Roos and Dees chase pick one, snag in Dons' Gresham hunt - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1051847

[demoncat 1,723]

Still not convinced we can get pick 1 with 6, 11 and a future first 

Surely we’d at least need to get our hands on pick 2 or 3 from the Roos while retaining pick 11? 

But then how do we get pick 2 or 3 without giving up 11?

I’ll leave this one to Lamby…

[WERRIDEE 5,638]

2 hours ago, Travy14 said:

Only on here, GWS have said they can keep Hayes and will not trade 7 as a salary dump

OK then we are not getting Haynes or pick 7. That ends the deal for pick 1 then. We currently have picks 6, 11, 41 and 46.

46 will probably be used for McAdam.

B: McVee, May, Lever

HB: Rivers, D.Turner, Bowey

C: Langdon, Oliver, Hunter

HF: Petracca, van Rooyen, Neal-Bullen

F: Fritsch, Petty, Pickett

FOLL: Gawn, Brayshaw, Viney

IC: Salem, Sparrow, McAdam, Smith

SUB: Chandler

 

Casey

B: K.Brown (rookie a), Tomlinson, Adams

HB: Howes, pick, pick

C: Woewodin, Laurie, Sestan (rookie a)

HF: Chandler, McDonald, Moniz-Wakefield (rookie b)

F: Jefferson, B.Brown, Schache

FOLL: Fullerton, Spargo, pick

IC: Melksham, Verrall (rookie a), Farris-White (rookie b), rookie

 

[mo64 5,910]

24 minutes ago, RyanD said:

This tends to happen in the European leagues in soccer a lot, but doesn't seem to occur in the AFL. Definitely something that should be thought about more often. 

There's no draft or salary cap in European football, hence the clubs with money dominate every year. So the powerhouse clubs prefer to trade to an overseas or non contending club.

In AFL it's hard to predict which club will emerge the following year, so it's not something a club would factor in. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,729]

8 minutes ago, demoncat said:

Still not convinced we can get pick 1 with 6, 11 and a future first 

Surely we’d at least need to get our hands on pick 2 or 3 from the Roos while retaining pick 11? 

But then how do we get pick 2 or 3 without giving up 11?

I’ll leave this one to Lamby…

Given how many picks the Roos have it's hard to seeing us beating them for pick 1, unless they choose not to go for it.

I do think however we may be involved in a 3 way pick swap to get us up to pick 3 and gain access to Duursma

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,729]

1 minute ago, mo64 said:

There's no draft or salary cap in European football, hence the clubs with money dominate every year. So the powerhouse clubs prefer to trade to an overseas or non contending club.

In AFL it's hard to predict which club will emerge the following year, so it's not something a club would factor in. 

Impossible to compare Euro football to AFL due to this fact.

I much prefer our setup, as any club can win a premiership if they get their list management right.

You cannot say the same for 90% of teams over there who are really just trying to stay in the league they are in.

[bandicoot 1,395]

Just now, DistrACTION Jackson said:

Given how many picks the Roos have it's hard to seeing us beating them for pick 1, unless they choose not to go for it.

I do think however we may be involved in a 3 way pick swap to get us up to pick 3 and gain access to Duursma

The only way north can trump our picks of 6,11 and F1st is to give 3,15 and 18. Giving 15 and 18 to jump up 1 spot is ridiculous. 

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,729]

1 minute ago, bandicoot said:

The only way north can trump our picks of 6,11 and F1st is to give 3,15 and 18. Giving 15 and 18 to jump up 1 spot is ridiculous. 

Not really if they think he's that much better than anyone else.

Those picks were created out of thin air for them, so hypothetically they are trading 3 for 1.

[BigMacjnr 283]

The draft talk buzz from Cal Twoomey was that Curtain was slipping down the order and now expected to be available at Melbourne's pick. The draft is also meant to become much weaker from pick 15 onwards (including academy players) so pick 11 is one of the last truely valuable picks for a higher likelihood of a good player in this draft. Given this, it would seem unlikely that North could beat our offer unless they can trade their later picks to move up to pick 7. If WCE can get the same player at 2 as they could get at 6, then this is perceptually not a huge difference in value. The secondary element is that North's later 1sts are all in the speculative picks range of the draft so I don't see them moving the needle if you were WCE. So North would either need to go for picks 2 and 3 or 2/3 with their first next year to be in the conversation. 

I would say the Dees are in the box seat and that is the reason why we paid so much for pick 11, because we called North's bluff and now they are stuck with a tonne of 1st round picks which are more like second round picks in other drafts due to how far the slide is in this 'weaker' draft. 

[BDA 23,048]

North have been irrelevant for quite a while so i understand why the AFL want to help them. But i have to say getting a suite of picks like this does not endear them to me. Kinda hope they fall on their face.

[Demonland 74,431]

Would you take this?

[bandicoot 1,395]

10 minutes ago, BigMacjnr said:

The draft talk buzz from Cal Twoomey was that Curtain was slipping down the order and now expected to be available at Melbourne's pick. The draft is also meant to become much weaker from pick 15 onwards (including academy players) so pick 11 is one of the last truely valuable picks for a higher likelihood of a good player in this draft. Given this, it would seem unlikely that North could beat our offer unless they can trade their later picks to move up to pick 7. If WCE can get the same player at 2 as they could get at 6, then this is perceptually not a huge difference in value. The secondary element is that North's later 1sts are all in the speculative picks range of the draft so I don't see them moving the needle if you were WCE. So North would either need to go for picks 2 and 3 or 2/3 with their first next year to be in the conversation. 

I would say the Dees are in the box seat and that is the reason why we paid so much for pick 11, because we called North's bluff and now they are stuck with a tonne of 1st round picks which are more like second round picks in other drafts due to how far the slide is in this 'weaker' draft. 

West coast want curtin. He will be available at pick 6 because no other club will pick a Perth kid over a local talent. Not sure what the benefit for them to get norths pick 3