PREGAME: Rd 24 vs Sydney

[Jaded No More 68,906]

10 hours ago, Deebauched said:

Who are you ?

He’s my PA

[Roost it far 8,256]

The Turner inclusion is an interesting one. it's pretty clear the FD don't love Tomlinson, I'm guessing it's probably because of his lack of pace and he does get lost under the ball from time to time. Turner offers less size but more pace, reads the ball marginally better and probably matches Adam for disposal. Experience, well he largely has none and here we sit at the start of the most important 6 weeks of the season. Are we giving Turner a run because we see The Pies forward line as smaller and more mobile? What if we play Brisbane in the GF, does Tomlinson get the nod? Personally I think we see Turner as the match up for the Pies and this is his chance to get ready for that. Still a big, brave call by the FD. I like it.

[Kent 2,909]

2 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

The Turner inclusion is an interesting one. it's pretty clear the FD don't love Tomlinson, I'm guessing it's probably because of his lack of pace and he does get lost under the ball from time to time. Turner offers less size but more pace, reads the ball marginally better and probably matches Adam for disposal. Experience, well he largely has none and here we sit at the start of the most important 6 weeks of the season. Are we giving Turner a run because we see The Pies forward line as smaller and more mobile? What if we play Brisbane in the GF, does Tomlinson get the nod? Personally I think we see Turner as the match up for the Pies and this is his chance to get ready for that. Still a big, brave call by the FD. I like it.

Risky selection in my view Why make changes to a settled backline at this stage of the season

Who will be the sub??

[Roost it far 8,256]

Just now, Kent said:

Risky selection in my view Why make changes to a settled backline at this stage of the season

Who will be the sub??

I think the risk is mitigated by the fact it's likely a dead rubber. I still see May getting rested and Tomlinson playing but that's a total guess. Sub will be TMac surely, I mean why take him if he's not playing?

[old dee 23,787]

A win this weekend over the swans. With Fritz back in the forward line looks more lethal even thought I don’t expect a lot from after being out so long it does mean their backs will be stretched further ignore him at your peril. 

[old dee 23,787]

48 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I think the risk is mitigated by the fact it's likely a dead rubber. I still see May getting rested and Tomlinson playing but that's a total guess. Sub will be TMac surely, I mean why take him if he's not playing?

May is fine he will play.

[binman 42,903]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

Tommo is the best one on one back man we have rearely loses so again on what basis is he preferred? We have a defnesive system with Tommo which has worked well and frees up Lever also leads to more wins

Why change it now ?? What is the reason?

 

Speed is my guess.

Footy game plans shift and change but in the main follow the template provided by the teams winning premierships. 

The tigers set the template in 2017 and every flag since, bar one (the eagles in 2018) has been won using the same basic method - contest, defence, pressure and territory. 

In order to break down that method, particularly the defensive elements, Mcrae introduced a tactical tweak with the ultra fast ball movement from the back half.

Adelaide have adopted a similar model (though they don't take as many risks defensively) and the Hawks have taken that model and given it further tweak.  

What i find interesting is that the Pies model has not won a flag, and it vulnerabilities have already been exposed and exploited (the pies are ridiculously vulnerable to goals on the counter becuase their defenders all participate in that wave running they do, leaving no-one behind the ball) but it is def had an impact on how the best teams play.

And that impact is the importance of leg speed.

Having enough players who are both quick off the mark and can cover ground at a reasonable clip is now super important - particularly in the back half becuase the faster transition game has also resulted in smaller forward lines, so more medium forwards who are quick and less lumbering talls like BB. 

I suspect a key reason goody likes Smith in the team is his acceleration from a standing start and his sprint speed.

And i suspect why they are having a look at turner for the key position down back is he is quick of the mark and has a good cruising speed.

Tomo covers the ground well enough once he gets going, though is still no gazelle, but he is dead slow off the mark. And with the ball coming in quick from fast transition the way it will when we play the Pies that is problem - as we saw a couple of times against the hawks.

Not much a defender can do when the ball pings from the other end of the ground, there isn't time to set up a zone and a forward leads into an open leading lane. Their only hope is to have the speed to ensure the forward doesn't get separation. Tomo hasn't got that speed. 

And that lack of acceleration from a standing start means Tomo really can only play the one on one key defender role, not the hybrid one one one/zone off/intercepting role that petty plays when down back.

Disco is pretty good one on one, quick from a standing start, an excellent intercept mark and zones of super well. And has good cruising speed.

Good move i reckon.

[Kent 2,909]

13 minutes ago, binman said:

Speed is my guess.

Footy game plans shift and change but in the main follow the template provided by the teams winning premierships. 

The tigers set the template in 2017 and every flag since, bar one (the eagles in 2018) has been won using the same basic method - contest, defence, pressure and territory. 

In order to break down that method, particularly the defensive elements, Mcrae introduced a tactical tweak with the ultra fast ball movement from the back half.

Adelaide have adopted a similar model (though they don't take as many risks defensively) and the Hawks have taken that model and given it further tweak.  

What i find interesting is that the Pies model has not won a flag, and it vulnerabilities have already been exposed and exploited (the pies are ridiculously vulnerable to goals on the counter becuase their defenders all participate in that wave running they do, leaving no-one behind the ball) but it is def had an impact on how the best teams play.

And that impact is the importance of leg speed.

Having enough players who are both quick off the mark and can cover ground at a reasonable clip is now super important - particularly in the back half becuase the faster transition game has also resulted in smaller forward lines, so more medium forwards who are quick and less lumbering talls like BB. 

I suspect a key reason goody likes Smith in the team is his acceleration from a standing start and his sprint speed.

And i suspect why they are having a look at turner for the key position down back is he is quick of the mark and has a good cruising speed.

Tomo covers the ground well enough once he gets going, though is still no gazelle, but he is dead slow off the mark. And with the ball coming in quick from fast transition the way it will when we play the Pies that is problem - as we saw a couple of times against the hawks.

Not much a defender can do when the ball pings from the other end of the ground, there isn't time to set up a zone and a forward leads into an open leading lane. Their only hope is to have the speed to ensure the forward doesn't get separation. Tomo hasn't got that speed. 

And that lack of acceleration from a standing start means Tomo really can only play the one on one key defender role, not the hybrid one one one/zone off/intercepting role that petty plays when down back.

Disco is pretty good one on one, quick from a standing start, an excellent intercept mark and zones of super well. And has good cruising speed.

Good move i reckon.

I dont think he has proved this at AFL level  where he is below average in key stats Tommo is average or above

Still think its a risky move at this stage of the season

Edited August 26, 2023 by Kent

[picket fence 17,146]

16 hours ago, djr said:

Yeah coming from a guy who made a similar prediction re Petty as a forward. 

I also doubted Laurie's credentials on what I have seen at Casey and the result....? Plays 1 game and gets dropped! Yeah right! I maintain my stance mucking around in round 24 with experiments is not conducive to successful footy! In my eyes Turner has shown little at Casey to have got a game at this stage! Would have preferred getting a game into T.MAC and swinging Smith back!

[Redleg 40,899]

3 minutes ago, picket fence said:

I also doubted Laurie's credentials on what I have seen at Casey and the result....? Plays 1 game and gets dropped! Yeah right! I maintain my stance mucking around in round 24 with experiments is not conducive to successful footy! In my eyes Turner has shown little at Casey to have got a game at this stage! Would have preferred getting a game into T.MAC and swinging Smith back!

You are wrong about Turner at Casey, he is great and is usually in our best few.

I think Tommo makes our backline better but Turner us certainly the future.

He is same height as Tommo, 8 kegs lighter at the start of the season and is a better mark and quicker.

I could see them both playing Sunday if it’s a dead game and we rest May.

[Diamond Tim 291]

18 minutes ago, binman said:

Tomo covers the ground well enough once he gets going, though is still no gazelle, but he is dead slow off the mark. And with the ball coming in quick from fast transition the way it will when we play the Pies that is problem - as we saw a couple of times against the hawks.

 

Yeah nah - KB v Pies  saw Tommo in our best...great game against the pinging Pies.

[binman 42,903]

14 minutes ago, Kent said:

I dont think he has proved this at AFL level  where he is below average in key stats Tommo is average or above

Still think its a risky move at this stage of the season

He's played a game a half. And looked terrific until he broke his jaw in his first game

[dazzledavey36 54,866]

Tommo is travelling with the team up to the Sydney. 

[Kent 2,909]

9 minutes ago, Redleg said:

You are wrong about Turner at Casey, he is great and is usually in our best few.

I think Tommo makes our backline better but Turner us certainly the future.

He is same height as Tommo, 8 kegs lighter at the start of the season and is a better mark and quicker.

I could see them both playing Sunday if it’s a dead game and we rest May.

Tommo is clearly better than Turner at both VFL and AFL Look at the stats!! He may be the future but Tommo is the present

[binman 42,903]

11 minutes ago, Diamond Tim said:

Yeah nah - KB v Pies  saw Tommo in our best...great game against the pinging Pies.

That's the thing - they weren't the pinging pies that day.

We completely took away their running, transition game by pressing up, creating density and choking their outlet handball. And the Pies looked flat that day too (the flu, loading). 

So tomo wasn't really ever exposed by fast transition in that game.  The pies will be a different proposition in a QF. Have to plan for them to get their the game on their terms at some point in the game. 

Last week Tomo was exposed at least three times when the Hawks got inside their 50 quickly by a young forward he simply couldn't go with. 

Why do yo think Goody subbed Tomo (for the second match in a row) and didn't pick him this week?

Edited August 26, 2023 by binman

[whatwhat say what 22,745]

tomlinson needs an oppo forwarded line to select at least one, preferably two lumbering forwards in order for him to have a match-up

turner is a much better option for first the bloods tomorrow and then the filth next week - they play mobile, athletic mid-talls and smalls, not slow coaches

[layzie 33,794]

I say give him a go 

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55 minutes ago, picket fence said:

I also doubted Laurie's credentials on what I have seen at Casey and the result....? Plays 1 game and gets dropped! Yeah right! I maintain my stance mucking around in round 24 with experiments is not conducive to successful footy! In my eyes Turner has shown little at Casey to have got a game at this stage! Would have preferred getting a game into T.MAC and swinging Smith back!

Using lots of exclamation marks doesn’t make you right. Laurie has the potential and TMac will get minutes tomorrow 

[BDA 22,743]

We know what Tommo offers. Let's see what Disco Stu can do for us. He deserves his chance.

 

[waynewussell 5,736]

1 hour ago, picket fence said:

I also doubted Laurie's credentials on what I have seen at Casey and the result....? Plays 1 game and gets dropped! Yeah right! I maintain my stance mucking around in round 24 with experiments is not conducive to successful footy! In my eyes Turner has shown little at Casey to have got a game at this stage! Would have preferred getting a game into T.MAC and swinging Smith back!

You don't watch Casey!

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,169]

3 hours ago, Kent said:

Tommo is the best one on one back man we have rearely loses so again on what basis is he preferred? We have a defnesive system with Tommo which has worked well and frees up Lever also leads to more wins

Why change it now ?? What is the reason?

 

Sorry Kent it may be your observation but the stats dont support your first sentence at all. Agree when someone plays in that role Lever plays better but it doesn’t need to be Tomo. Lever was great all game last week but was best in the last when Smith was down there. I agree its a risky move to bring Turner in at this time of year but I can see why the selectors aren’t confident that Tomo is the answer. 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Lil_red_fire_engine

[Demon17 5,188]

22 minutes ago, BDA said:

We know what Tommo offers. Let's see what Disco Stu can do for us. He deserves his chance.

 

This is a dead rubber and an ideal time to look at options maybe needed during a brutal finals campaign.

Dees have proved them selves over last 2 months, and I'm including technically beating the Blue cheaters.

Just a bit more grist for the mill for selectors.  

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,658]

17 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Domination or a play on it

perhaps

Demonation

Dominion, Dee-minion 👌🏻 

[Jaded No More 68,906]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Tommo is travelling with the team up to the Sydney. 

May odds on for a late out with “hamstring related nauseas” if Port and Lions win?

[Palace Dees 2,311]

Fox have just announced the expected Coll vs Melb final will likely be on Thursday night. As was the case mid year, this means once again Melbourne will be the only team with a less than 12 day break,  meaning any concussed player will miss the next final. Why are we continually disadvantaged this way when it's not necessary?