PREGAME: Rd 23 vs Hawthorn

[Guest]

Also, this is what happens when we have a kid-free night at banner…

 

No one has owned up to it, and no, it wasn’t me, I’m just spewing I didn’t think of it. 😁

[Watson11 2,241]

40 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Our win loss ratio when Spargo is playing this year is 8-5.

When he isn't playing it's 6-2.

We're just fine without him thanks.

 

Of the games Spargo didn’t play, 5 are against the bottom 6 and only 1 against a top 8 team. 

Of the games he played in, 4 were top 4, another 4 top 8, then also Geelong in Geelong.

The record when he plays versus doesn’t is totally meaningless and tells us nothing.

 

 

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

1 hour ago, poita said:

Average team score last 4 games with Brodie Grundy 60.75 (last 8 = 64.75)

Average team score last 4 games without Brodie Grundy 108.75

I'm not saying we are 8 goal worse team with Grundy playing, and he was handy when Gawn was injured, but clearly his presence is preventing some of his teammates from playing their best football, Gawn in particular.

Doesn't the Team score depend on conditions? Which of those eight games did we win? In fact with Grundy in and not in what is our ratio of win/loss?

[Deemania since 56 6,715]

22 hours ago, Roost it far said:

I’d say Spargo is a shoe in, we need his kicking into our forward half. He just needs to get 20 odd possessions to become very damaging 

That skill requirement is within easy reach of Kozzie, Chandler and JJ - mark my words - they can all do it at training with added speed and mongrel grunt to that of Spargy-pants, more penetration and will round the three off if tasked by Goodwin to so do in gametime. ANB is already doing it, kicking a conservative pop-up rack of goals, holding back the play cleverly for zone-ups and coverage of opponents team wide, and hitting the 150 games marque with smart intercepts. 

[old55 23,687]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Old i know you disagree, and i don't want to get into a back and forth on it. 

Happy for you to disagree, and rebut too of course but i'll post this response and leave it here if that is ok. I'm trying to get better at not feeling like i have to prove i'm right all the time (on DL and elsewhere)! 

The high half forward role is a thing.

It is an increasingly critical role because all team defence depends on having multiple players who can cover huge ground, at pace, and gut run all game to track the ball from deep into the oppo defence and half forward flank (inside 50 sometimes too of course, but not like the traditional small forwards). 

They are critical roles because without them all team defence doesn't work as holes open up everywhere that the oppo use to tic tac the ball to free players on transition.

And on offence they provide an outlet, tic tac option too.  

Forever and a day the game has been about getting the pill - and players are judged on the ability to do so (good players juts know how to get the pill, good players get to where the ball is etc etc). 

(By the by, this started to shift at club land because when Craig was at the Crows he paid someone to time how often Ricciuto, who was regularly getting 35 plus possessions a game, actually had the ball in his hand during a game. I can't recall the exact number, but over the course of a 2 hour game they realized that Roo, their most prolific ball winner, only had the ball in his hands on the ball something like 3.5 minutes per game. Arguably this changed footy because it shifted the thinking about the contribution of players when they don't have the ball in hand - something that has always been a big part of say basketball). 

A challenge for the role is that involves a huge amount of unrewarded running and often low possession numbers because they often gut run to spots that result in the ball actually not going near them. 

For example they gut run to cover a clear switch. If they make it, the ball doesn't get switched, and instead might get kicked down the line 70 metres away from them.

Or they sprint to the open space to provide a switch option. The ball is not kicked to them but it drags their opponent with them (gassing that player in the process) to create a hole for a teammate to run into and provide the tic tac option and support transition,

The impact is measurable in scores from turnover - just about the most critical stat in footy now (eg stopping the oppo scoring on transition, for example gut running to spoil or running to cover space and forcing a kick down the line to a contest. And scoring on transition when we cause turnover)

Or put another way - being involved in scoring chains AND stopping oppo scoring chains (another 'unrewarded' act in terms of accruing a stat - well at least by the media and fans, but not by clubs and teammates). 

If they do their job they don't get a disposal. Hard to appreciate something that has not occurred, ie everyone can see when a player who gets kick.  

Every player has to gut run at times and all have to contribute to all team defence.

The difference is the unique combination of attributes the high half forward role requires - football skill, football iq, discipline (for instance to not chase the pill to fatten their stats sheet when fans are calling for them to be dropped), elite endurance and elite athletic skills - most notably a high cruising speed akin to a 400 metre runner. 

Teams need several such players. Langers and Hunter have a similar function - and athletic attributes to Nibbla and Spargo. 

With no Spargo, another players has to play role (eg Woey) and/or other players have to cover the clicks at speed we miss when Spargo is not in the team (eg chandler playing a hybrid role).

I really like Chandler, but he is does not have the athletic attributes required for the role. 

And i would argue he has been playing a hybrid role, and we saw the issue with that against the blues.

He was ineffective as a small forward, in part i would argue because he spent too much time outside 50 and of course was also more gassed than he would have bene if he satyed inside 50 more of the time.

And i would argue, as evidenced by the fact they were well ahead on scores from turnover (which almost NEVER happens to us) until late in the third, we also struggled with our all team defence because Chandler cant play that high half forward role to the level Spargo can (and that is not a criticism, just diff types of athletes).  

And in any case we want Chandler close to goal, as fresh as possible (eg not gassed because he has to sprint from the half back to the forward pocket), applying pressure inside 50, crumbing packs and kicking goals.

On Gryan Miers, i thought i made clear that i was comparing roles not performance. I did after all note that Myers averages almost twice as many possessions and that he was chance of AA selection.

I chose Myers as a comparison because he is a forward and the conversation is how can a forward get into he AA team having only kicked six goals.

Sure, people will say that is is becuase of his goal assists, but although he is miles ahead of every other player (trac is second), he only provides 1.9 goal assists per game.

Curiously though, Spargs, despite being playing 8 fewer games, has kicked almost twice as many goals as Myers (11) and is behind on score involvements, but not as much as might be imagined (Myers averages 7 per game, Charlie 3.9)

As for evidence for the different roles Spargo and Chandler play, it's hard to find specific evidence.

The heat maps of both players when both in the team would provide a visual of their diff roles, but i couldn't' find them online.

And the other good evidence is total kms covered in a game, defensive kms covered (which is when the oppo have the ball), and ks covered at speed.

Again i cant find that data online, but it is on telstra tracker during games and i always look at it at quarter breaks.  Nibbla, Langers and Hunter are always at the top of the above measures for us.

As for evidence about the high half forward role existence and importance, Daniel Hoyne from Champion data explains it really well here:

Go to this link:

• https://www.sen.com.au/programs/sportsday/
• Scroll down to the 'Round 20 Full On Footy Analysis with Daniel Hoyne in the studio - Tuesday August 01 file 
• And listen from 6 mins 24 secs to the 8 mins 34 second mark

Summary:

• The transition game is the most important part of football now (something he has talked about all season)
• Defines the high half forward role
• Talks about the importance of the role
• Argues that bringing players in to play that role, eg Cunningham and Cotteral, is the key reason for the blues revival because it has allowed them them to sort out their transition game 
• He also goes on to argue that without such players, teams can not win a flag and that is why he thinks the dogs are going nowhere (because they lack such players)
• It is not in this clip, but on another night Hoyne mentioned that the Giants recruited Toby Bedford to play the high half forward role, which was an important factor in their improvement too

There is also a podcast Tmac did pre season that talks about the high half forward role.

There is thread on DL about it with with the link, and i have written about it somewhere too. I had quick search and can't find either. 

But in short, Tmac argues the high half forward role Nibbla and Spargo play (so making a clear distinction between that and other roles, eg small forward) is 'the hardest role in football, by far'.

He also talks about why that is the case - for example the gut running and 'high striding speed' required for the role, ie the need, all game, to push deep into defence and get behind the ball, and then on turnover, sprint to get ahead of the ball to provide a transition option.

And like i have heard so many ex players say, like Jonesy about Nibbla a few weeks back, Tmac also said that whilst fans may not appreciate players who play the high half forward role, everyone within footy clubs do becuase they know what is involved.  

I'm not disputing that there is a "high half forward" role.  I am disputing that there is any evidence that Spargo plays it more effectively than Chandler. 

Again there is no available evidence AFAIK that Spargo has superior athletic attributes to Chandler. 

I looked at the Tracker on the AFL App which records the top 5 performers in the match across a range of running attributes.  Here's the total number of times Chandler and Spargo have appeared in the top 5 in those categories this season.

Total Sprints: Chandler 7, Spargo 0
Repeat Sprints: Chandler 5, Spargo 2
Distance at High Speed: Chandler 3, Spargo 1
Average Speed: Chandler 1, Spargo 1
Average Speed in Attack: Chandler 0, Spargo 3
Average Speed in Defence: Chandler 9, Spargo 1
Maximum Speed: Chandler 10, Spargo 1

I think it's very clear that Chandler is quicker than Spargo and there's some evidence in Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence that he has good endurance and covers the ground defensively.

You were critical of Chandler vs Carlton last week, but he was top 5 in Maximum Speed, Total Sprints, Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence.

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by old55

[binman 43,718]

48 minutes ago, old55 said:

I'm not disputing that there is a "high half forward" role.  I am disputing that there is any evidence that Spargo plays it more effectively than Chandler. 

Again there is no available evidence AFAIK that Spargo has superior athletic attributes to Chandler. 

I looked at the Tracker on the AFL App which records the top 5 performers in the match across a range of running attributes.  Here's the total number of times Chandler and Spargo have appeared in the top 5 in those categories this season.

Total Sprints: Chandler 7, Spargo 0
Repeat Sprints: Chandler 5, Spargo 2
Distance at High Speed: Chandler 3, Spargo 1
Average Speed: Chandler 1, Spargo 1
Average Speed in Attack: Chandler 0, Spargo 3
Average Speed in Defence: Chandler 9, Spargo 1
Maximum Speed: Chandler 10, Spargo 1

I think it's very clear that Chandler is quicker than Spargo and there's some evidence in Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence that he has good endurance and covers the ground defensively.

 

I think we are talking at cross purposes then od.

And I wasted a whole bunch of time because I misunderstood your point.

I don't think Chandler plays the  high half forward role at all (though as I said he has been playing a bit of a hybrid high half forward/small forward role of late).

Woey played spargos's role imo.

Chandler plays a different role - small pressure forward who stays closer to goal (as would be evidenced by their heatmsap)

Maybe you are right, and Chandler has the required athleticism for the high half forward role, and is a better athlete than spargo.

If Chandler did play the high half forward role, we would then need another player to come in and play the pressure small forward role, imo (or keep the set up as is and Chandler plays a hybrid role)

But's let's agree to disagree.

It is a moot point anyway if spargo isn't selected in the same team as Chandler.

And I'm not trying to make w case spargo is better than Chandler, or he will replace Chandler (i don't think he will).

I'm predicting what I think goody will do selection wise (as opposed to the team I would pick).

Edited August 18, 2023 by binman

[Young Angus 802]

Anyone think Schache might get a nod?  Wouldn't have thought so but he's on the extended bench so you never know...

[binman 43,718]

1 minute ago, Young Angus said:

Anyone think Schache might get a nod?  Wouldn't have thought so but he's on the extended bench so you never know...

Only if smith is a late out.

[Fat Tony 5,262]

Without Ben Brown and playing only one ruck means we get more even spread in terms of defensive transition running and pressure acts. But without having two 200cm plus targets, IMO we need to have a setup where all our forwards who can compete in the air.

[redandbluemakepurple 360]

23 minutes ago, old55 said:

I'm not disputing that there is a "high half forward" role.  I am disputing that there is any evidence that Spargo plays it more effectively than Chandler. 

Again there is no available evidence AFAIK that Spargo has superior athletic attributes to Chandler. 

I looked at the Tracker on the AFL App which records the top 5 performers in the match across a range of running attributes.  Here's the total number of times Chandler and Spargo have appeared in the top 5 in those categories this season.

Total Sprints: Chandler 7, Spargo 0
Repeat Sprints: Chandler 5, Spargo 2
Distance at High Speed: Chandler 3, Spargo 1
Average Speed: Chandler 1, Spargo 1
Average Speed in Attack: Chandler 0, Spargo 3
Average Speed in Defence: Chandler 9, Spargo 1
Maximum Speed: Chandler 10, Spargo 1

I think it's very clear that Chandler is quicker than Spargo and there's some evidence in Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence that he has good endurance and covers the ground defensively.

You were critical of Chandler vs Carlton last week, but he was top 5 in Maximum Speed, Total Sprints, Repeat Sprints and Average Speed in Defence.

 

Do you have the kms run?  I believe that when Spargo is seen at defensive 50, the boys are putting on the screws and we win.  Said that last year and got a kicking.

[binman 43,718]

2 minutes ago, redandbluemakepurple said:

Do you have the kms run?  I believe that when Spargo is seen at defensive 50, the boys are putting on the screws and we win.  Said that last year and got a kicking.

Not by me.

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

53 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Also, this is what happens when we have a kid-free night at banner…

 

No one has owned up to it, and no, it wasn’t me, I’m just spewing I didn’t think of it. 😁

No Danny Sexton!!

[dazzledavey36 55,315]

42 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Of the games Spargo didn’t play, 5 are against the bottom 6 and only 1 against a top 8 team. 

Of the games he played in, 4 were top 4, another 4 top 8, then also Geelong in Geelong.

The record when he plays versus doesn’t is totally meaningless and tells us nothing.

 

 

It tells us that we're simply doing just fine without him and he's not highly influential as some on here are making him out to be.

It's telling enough that Simon Goodwin has been willing to drop him a couple of times this year and preferred Chandler who's made greater impact from an offensive and defensive aspect.

Personally I think he'll come in for Jordon which I think is the wrong move because playing 4 smalls hasn't really worked for us this year imo.

[binman 43,718]

3 hours ago, praha said:

I've seen lots. Just got an email from the club as well.

 

 

https://shop.melbournefc.com.au/gawn-200/

 

Also seen a few interviews on TV (these would be organised by the media department).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's great.

Well, lets be frank, not great, just ok. 

A bunch of tweets and photos, one of with a link to buy some Maxy merch 

But i haven't received an email, i'm not on twitter and the only video above is the standard electrifying performance 90 second vid they do every week from the blues game.

Just checked - still no celebration vids on the website.  Maybe they will still come - i hope so. 

By way of contrast there were two vids celebrating Langer's 150th last month:

The first with highlights of his career (replete with the who hoo man), the second an interview with him:

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by binman

[Watson11 2,241]

11 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

It tells us that we're simply doing just fine without him and he's not highly influential as some on here are making him out to be.

It's telling enough that Simon Goodwin has been willing to drop him a couple of times this year and preferred Chandler who's made greater impact from an offensive and defensive aspect.

Personally I think he'll come in for Jordon which I think is the wrong move because playing 4 smalls hasn't really worked for us this year imo.

To be fair, it tells us we are doing fine without him against bottom teams.  Against top 8 teams we are 0-1 without him and 6-2 with him.

I personally think 4 small forwards would work if we switched our forward 50 gameplan to high pressure and not bombing long ie Richmond 2017 style.  My view is we need to accept that Grundy/TMac/BB are not the answer and adjust our inside 50 gameplan appropriately.  And that would mean our forwards all leading for a change and Spargo would be helpful delivering inside 50.

I personally think Spargo got dropped by Goody because he went away from team rules and instead of just bombing it in, took on risky kicks against Brisbane and turned it over.  But who knows.

[Tarax Club 3,942]

30 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

Anyone think Schache might get a nod?  Wouldn't have thought so but he's on the extended bench so you never know...

After two recent sightings on the extended emergency bench the search is on.

[old55 23,687]

16 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

I personally think Spargo got dropped by Goody because he went away from team rules and instead of just bombing it in, took on risky kicks against Brisbane and turned it over.  But who knows.

I generally like your insights Watson, but that's a massive stretch.  Spargo only had 2 turnovers in that match.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=10899&advv=Y

I don't think that was the reason.  11 possessions and zero tackles inside 50 might be closer to the mark.

[Dee Zephyr 19,268]

Tomlinson, Laurie in

Grundy, JJ out 

[Dannyz 2,851]

In: Adam Tomlinson,Bailey Laurie

 

Out: Brodie Grundy (Omitted),James Jordon (Omitted),Michael Hibberd (Sub)

[dazzledavey36 55,315]

Just now, Dannyz said:

In: Adam Tomlinson,Bailey Laurie

 

Out: Brodie Grundy (Omitted),James Jordon (Omitted),Michael Hibberd (Sub)

Nail on head mate, well done once again 👏

[dazzledavey36 55,315]

Absolutely love these changes btw!

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

Laurie ????

Did not see that coming

[Roost it far 8,575]

Wow, didn't see that coming!

[Graeme Yeats' Mullet 6,778]

3 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Absolutely love these changes btw!

How do you think it plays out?

Thommo back / Smith swingman / Hibbo sub?

[Jaded No More 68,972]

Wow Laurie is left field two weeks out from finals. I was sure Spargo was a shoe in.

Interesting to see what role he plays.