The Run Home

[gOLLy 401]

Melb V Coll 1st qualifying final.

That's it

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

2 hours ago, binman said:

I think we will eclipse the Lions' percentage, so finishing third and playing Port in Adelaide week one is a real possibility.  

My preference is we finish fourth and play the Pies week one at the G. Snuff out the Pies mania and i have a better chance of being able to attend the game. 

I don't think we'll eclipse Brisbane's percentage but realistically could exceed it (which is all we need to do, or maybe we would prefer not if it means we finish 3rd rather than 4th). Currently about 5.3% / 87 points for & against differentials. We wouldn't need to make up the whole 87 points as their against score will be higher than ours. So let's guestimate say 80 points. Brisbane have a much touger run home. We need to finish 2nd or 4th, not 3rd, as Collingwood are virtual certainties for minor premiers.

I think we can say with confidence that Collingwood will have a better percentage than Melbourne and Port worse. Geelong's percentage is irrelevant. All other teams will finish with inferior percentages than Melbourne's. 

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

And Geelong have Brisbane away, Port in Geelong and Pies at the G. Let’s hope they drop all 3. 

Have mixed feelings about this at this stage but on balance I agree about this week at least. If we win and they lose they'll be 2.5 games behind us and 3.5 behind Brisbane which will pretty much finalize the Top 4. I think the 8th team will have a 12 11 record and Geelong only need 3 wins out of 6 to get to 12 10 1 which will get them there. Basically what I'm saying is Geelong is highly likely to finish in the 5-8 bracket regardless and I definitely don't want them Top 4.

1 hour ago, layzie said:

I don't hate Geelong as much as others but I was kinda looking forward to them missing the 8 for a change. 

I think that's highly unlikely to happen. 3 3 will get them in the 8.

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

I think top 4 is locked this weekend if Brisbane and ourselves win.

We would need to lose 3 or 2 (by a percentage damaging margin)of the remaining 5 to be catchable by a team that wins all 5.

You could argue that we can catch Brisbane but if they win this weekend they are still one game plus a big percentage in front.

The 5-8 spots are almost impossible as the margin between 5 and 14 is so close

5 to 8 wide open, although really I'd include only 5-12. Gold Coast (because of their poor percentage) & Sydney would need to win 5 of 6. Geelong will make it as they only need 3 3 from here. St Kilda & Essendon are weak teams but have soft runs home, Western Bulldogs also. GWS, Carlton, Richmond & Adelaide probably need 4 of 6. Melbourne will have a big say in this as we play the latter 3. On form I predict Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Essendon & GWS for 5th to 8th (but what would I know 😀)
 

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

In all likelihood, we finish 4th - Brisbane's unlikely to drop any more than 1 more game than us and could hold their percentage over us, and whilst Port might collapse, I doubt it, and they have to drop 3 more games than us for us to catch them.

Brisbane are no certainties to finish above Melbourne as there's definitely a possibility we make up the percentage differential. They're always a chance for a big win at home for them but they have a much harder run home than Melbourne. As it stands at the moment we're 3 games behind Port (because of better percentage) & 2 behind Brisbane (because of inferior percentage), but that could change to 3 & 1 over the season. We beat Adelaide, Collingwood beat Port, Geelong beat Brisbane and it tightens up considerably. I think Brisbsne beats Geelong but let's hope that it's either a narrow win to Brisbane or a huge win to Geelong!

[Kozzie4PM 765]

I reckon we'll go unbeaten from here and run third. Port away first up which we'll win. We'll best brissy in the prelim and play the maggots in the big dance. 

But there's no easy way through. Get every part of our game working at the same time and reasonable run with injuries and ill take anyone, anywhere, anytime.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,548]

If we play Port in week 1 at AO, how many tickets will be allocated to MFC members?

And I suspect it would be on a Saturday twilight or night as I would imagine that the other 3 finals would be at the MCG (due to a lack of interstate teams featuring in the top 6) and would need to be Thu night, Fri night and Saturday.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

9 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Finishing 2nd or 3rd guarantees we meet the Pies in a Prelim  if Pies finish first..   Not attractive to me.

I don't understand your thinking. Yes, if we lose in 2nd vs 3rd, we then have to win a Semi which unfortunately is likely to be a Victorian team and then we would have to beat Collingwood (very probably) in a Prelim. The alternative is we finish 4th and play Collingwood in a Qualifying and if we lose, we again play against a Victorian team in a Semi, and then have to win an Away Prelim. We're going to have to get past Collingwood at some stage but it will be at the MCG. On current form of course they'd be favourites, although we did beat them pre-bye! I don't see meeting them is likely to be any easier in a Prelim than a Qualifying. What, Collingwood only decide to turn up and play when it's a knock-out match!

In a perfect world we want to finish 2nd and host a Qualifying. The next best alternative is 4th aganst Collingwood, the last 3rd against Brisbane or Port. Except for the interstate travel thing arguably it's better to be in the 2nd vs 3rd Qualifying because no side has actually won from 4th in the AFL Final 8 System Era (last 23 years)! 1st has won 8, 2nd & 3rd 7, 7th 1 (Western Bulldogs 2016).

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,548]

6 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I don't understand your thinking. Yes, if we lose in 2nd vs 3rd, we then have to win a Semi which unfortunately is likely to be a Victorian team and then we would have to beat Collingwood (very probably) in a Prelim. The alternative is we finish 4th and play Collingwood in a Qualifying and if we lose, we again play against a Victorian team in a Semi, and then have to win an Away Prelim. We're going to have to get past Collingwood at some stage but it will be at the MCG. On current form of course they'd be favourites, although we did beat them pre-bye! I don't see meeting them is likely to be any easier in a Prelim than a Qualifying. What, Collingwood only decide to turn up and play when it's a knock-out match!

In a perfect world we want to finish 2nd and host a Qualifying. The next best alternative is 4th aganst Collingwood, the last 3rd against Brisbane or Port. Except for the interstate travel thing arguably it's better to be in the 2nd vs 3rd Qualifying because no side has actually won from 4th in the AFL Final 8 System Era (last 23 years)! 1st has won 8, 2nd & 3rd 7, 7th 1 (Western Bulldogs 2016).

The only risk of finishing 3rd and playing Port away is the possibility of facing Brisbane at the GABBA in the prelim if we lose week 1 and Brisbane beat Collingwood at the G week 1. That would be the major booby prize in terms of travelling, which we've been average in this year. 

[Little Goffy 14,963]

The only advantage of Geelong playing finals is the prospect of Essendon going into an elimination final already knowing they're doomed.

The 'Essendon to be immediately knocked out of finals for a seventh time' death ride is almost as tantalising as the Freo death ride, but more pure because it is a strictly spiritual calling.

[rpfc 29,027]

4 hours ago, layzie said:

You were actually the first person I thought of when I wrote it 😜

The first person?!!

The first…

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

56 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

The only advantage of Geelong playing finals is the prospect of Essendon going into an elimination final already knowing they're doomed.

The 'Essendon to be immediately knocked out of finals for a seventh time' death ride is almost as tantalising as the Freo death ride, but more pure because it is a strictly spiritual calling.

Not much of an advantage. The last thing we need is Geelong getting a soft game against Essendon at GMHBA and then going on to play Melbourne in a Semi. I don't really understand this anti-Essendon thing. If they're playing Geelong I'll definitely be supporting them! 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,508]

Just read on FB that the AFL are going to meet with the clubs on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of introducing a wildcard rd for teams that miss the 8 to somehow play finals. It had a paywall so the information was limited.

[beelzebub 23,392]

7 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Just read on FB that the AFL are going to meet with the clubs on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of introducing a wildcard rd for teams that miss the 8 to somehow play finals. It had a paywall so the information was limited.

God NO !!! 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,508]

9 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

God NO !!! 

My thoughts exactly, couldn’t find anything on the AFL website so will be interesting to see what happens if anything. Would be fair to say the game has enough problems at the moment without worrying about [censored] like this.

[Jaded No More 68,976]

29 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Just read on FB that the AFL are going to meet with the clubs on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of introducing a wildcard rd for teams that miss the 8 to somehow play finals. It had a paywall so the information was limited.

FMD the AFL is starting to really pee me off. Stop making a mockery of our sport with your rubbish money grabbing gimmicks!

Can’t wait for North v West Coast to fight it out for a finals spot 🙄

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Win enough games to finish 4th.

Play Collingwood at the G. 

That's the most favourable of the likely scenarios. 

The most favourable but unlikely scenario is that we go unbeaten from here and somehow finish second thanks to Port dropping off. 

Can't see it happening though. 

[layzie 34,528]

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

The first person?!!

The first…

Next time you'll be first I promise.

[Kent 2,920]

13 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I don't understand your thinking. Yes, if we lose in 2nd vs 3rd, we then have to win a Semi which unfortunately is likely to be a Victorian team and then we would have to beat Collingwood (very probably) in a Prelim. The alternative is we finish 4th and play Collingwood in a Qualifying and if we lose, we again play against a Victorian team in a Semi, and then have to win an Away Prelim. We're going to have to get past Collingwood at some stage but it will be at the MCG. On current form of course they'd be favourites, although we did beat them pre-bye! I don't see meeting them is likely to be any easier in a Prelim than a Qualifying. What, Collingwood only decide to turn up and play when it's a knock-out match!

In a perfect world we want to finish 2nd and host a Qualifying. The next best alternative is 4th aganst Collingwood, the last 3rd against Brisbane or Port. Except for the interstate travel thing arguably it's better to be in the 2nd vs 3rd Qualifying because no side has actually won from 4th in the AFL Final 8 System Era (last 23 years)! 1st has won 8, 2nd & 3rd 7, 7th 1 (Western Bulldogs 2016).

Exactly my thinking Sydney

[Kent 2,920]

9 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Win enough games to finish 4th.

Play Collingwood at the G. 

That's the most favourable of the likely scenarios. 

The most favourable but unlikely scenario is that we go unbeaten from here and somehow finish second thanks to Port dropping off. 

Can't see it happening though. 

Look at ports' fixture they could easily drop 3

[titan_uranus 25,255]

Current top 8 record vs each other:

• Port - 8-1
• Collingwood - 5-2
• Geelong - 4-2
• Brisbane - 4-3
• Melbourne - 4-4
• St Kilda - 2-4
• Bulldogs - 1-6
• Essendon - 1-7

Port the clear leader here, Collingwood next, with Geelong, us and Brisbane all sort of even but Geelong having two fewer games and Brisbane one fewer game than us so far.

Interestingly though, 3 of our 4 wins have been our last 3 wins, in our last 5 games. Similarly 3 of Geelong's 4 wins have been in their last 6 games. Whereas 2 of Brisbane's 4 wins were in the first month and 4 of Collingwood's 5 wins were in the first 6 games.

Bear in mind these figures will change on the expectation that Carlton or GWS will likely replace St Kilda/Essendon/the Dogs.

[titan_uranus 25,255]

And top 4 against each other:

• Port - 2-1
• Melbourne - 2-2
• Brisbane - 2-2
• Collingwood - 1-2

Assuming Collingwood beats Port this weekend, we'll all be 2-2 against each other, with only one more game to come (Collingwood v Brisbane).

[Roost it far 10,136]

Wow, I just watched the segment on St.Kilda at the start of FC, that's just simply muck raking, nothing more. How does that total hack Hutchy (who looks more and more like a frog every year) get to host a tv show?

[SFebes 4,884]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

And top 4 against each other:

• Port - 2-1
• Melbourne - 2-2
• Brisbane - 2-2
• Collingwood - 1-2

Assuming Collingwood beats Port this weekend, we'll all be 2-2 against each other, with only one more game to come (Collingwood v Brisbane).

What is Geelongs record against this top 4 out of curiosity? 

[SFebes 4,884]

5 minutes ago, SFebes said:

What is Geelongs record against this top 4 out of curiosity? 

Just had time to check.

Geelong are 1-2 against the top 4. But that was fairly old form IMO.

[binman 44,824]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

And top 4 against each other:

• Port - 2-1
• Melbourne - 2-2
• Brisbane - 2-2
• Collingwood - 1-2

Assuming Collingwood beats Port this weekend, we'll all be 2-2 against each other, with only one more game to come (Collingwood v Brisbane).

If the pies do beat Port, and go 2-2 against the other top 4 sides, It us worth noting that both their wins are against Port.

Whereas we have beaten the pies and the lions, and the lions the pies and us.

[Wodjathefirst 2,671]

16 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Win enough games to finish 4th.

Play Collingwood at the G. 

That's the most favourable of the likely scenarios. 

The most favourable but unlikely scenario is that we go unbeaten from here and somehow finish second thanks to Port dropping off. 

Can't see it happening though. 

But in the meantime I can at least dream that it may happen- GO DEES!!!

[binman 44,824]

54 minutes ago, Wodjathefirst said:

But in the meantime I can at least dream that it may happen- GO DEES!!!

Based on tbe bookies odds for the next two games and my estimate of the likely odds in the remaining games, the odds of us winning our remaining 6 home and away games is a tick over 9-1.

Edited July 18, 2023 by binman