The Run Home

[beelzebub 22,724]

5 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Fagan got lucky in last year's final.  A third of our team was maimed.  Had we kicked straight the game would have been over by half time.

Lions' ladder position flatters them.  Since the bye they had a significant (but not big margin loss) to Hawks, so so wins over Swans and Saints and training runs over Tigers and Eagles.

I reckon we go into this game with better and more consistent performances.  While we haven't kicked winning scores sometimes we have been the better team and played very good football.  Anyway thier defence is average, not necessarily their back 6/7 but their overall ground defence.

Even if we lose to the Lions we are effectively two games ahead of 5th.  Teams below us need to win two more games than we do and given there are only 7 games left, I don't like anyone's chances of doing that.

Ahh.. the luck thing.   Yes ...often a key ingredient in any venture.

Lucky for them... no Oliver,no Fritta... and nothing resembling an on fure forward presence by us. 

It's intriguing that other teams manage "training runs" over lower placed competition... but we seem to struggle by comparison.

Ww simply need to win this...somehow...otherwise they have it over us...and that wont be fun come September 

[beelzebub 22,724]

16 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I’d rather Port myself.

Curious ...why ?

If we're playing Port it must mean they are the most in form team to finish 1st. 

We'd be playing them on their deck .

Not nearly as keen about that as you :) 

[layzie 30,417]

24 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Curious ...why ?

If we're playing Port it must mean they are the most in form team to finish 1st. 

We'd be playing them on their deck .

Not nearly as keen about that as you :) 

He might be hoping we finish 3rd BB.

[alpha33 277]

38 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Curious ...why ?

If we're playing Port it must mean they are the most in form team to finish 1st. 

We'd be playing them on their deck .

Not nearly as keen about that as you :) 

We played Port on their deck and in conditions that didn’t suit us in a game where they got the rub of the green thanks to a few umpire howlers and lost by 4 points. Nothing’s impossible in finals.

[old55 21,874]

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

 

It's intriguing that other teams manage "training runs" over lower placed competition... but we seem to struggle by comparison.

Ww simply need to win this...somehow...otherwise they have it over us...and that wont be fun come September 

You mean like 63  points over the Eagles, 90 over North and 58 over Hawthorn?

Ah, the facts thing ...

[Lucifers Hero 37,524]

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

It's intriguing that other teams manage "training runs" over lower placed competition... but we seem to struggle by comparison.

What do you think these were for us:

Round 1         Bulldogs     Win 115-65
Round 3        Swans         Win 134-84
Round 4        Eagles         Win 126-63
Round 7        Kangaroos  Win 139-49
Round 9        Hawks        Win 103-49

I think it doesn't matter that some of theirs were relatively recent.  We took our opportunities when we had them and there is the possibility of more to come.

From here all we need to do is win 4 or 5 from 7 and the winning margin isn't very relevant since there is a big % gap for other teams to make up and not many games left.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[layzie 30,417]

1 hour ago, alpha33 said:

We played Port on their deck and in conditions that didn’t suit us in a game where they got the rub of the green thanks to a few umpire howlers and lost by 4 points. Nothing’s impossible in finals.

It's a fair point, that ground shouldn't hold any fears for us. We got close and we can play a lot better than we did that night. Port won the battle that night but I can see us winning the war if healthy. 

[beelzebub 22,724]

15 minutes ago, old55 said:

You mean like 63  points over the Eagles, 90 over North and 58 over Hawthorn?

Ah, the facts thing ...

Suns we struggled.. hardly convincing.

Dockers....hmmm

Giants....oh well

 

[SFebes 4,748]

GWS aren't that bad of a side, people need to give them a bit of credit. They have won 5 of their last 6 and the loss to Richmond was 4 points from memory. They not only beat us but they also beat Geelong at GMHBA also.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,024]

3 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Curious ...why ?

If we're playing Port it must mean they are the most in form team to finish 1st. 

We'd be playing them on their deck .

Not nearly as keen about that as you :) 

Yes they’re a good side but I still think they’re very beatable. There’s only 5 sides that can win it if you count the Cats, and Port and Collingwood play a style that troubles them.

Back on topic Port like Collingwood have beaten up on the weaker sides, they beat the Cats and Suns by about 40 but then also like Collingwood have had a lot of wins by 10 points or less.

Swans by 2

Dogs by 14 (gather rd and dogs for once on the end of some garbage umpiring)

Saints by 7

Bombers by 5

Dees by 4

Tigers by 10

Bombers by 4

And yes winning form is good form and all but come finals and hopefully by then Oliver is firing at full capacity and Fritsch is back for his second game. I’m confident with our experience we can take them. During the year it was wet and we were smashed at the stoppages, yet in the 3rd we led by 17 at one stage. If we don’t let that happen again we’re a massive chance. Would rather them week 1 than 3.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,650]

18 hours ago, old55 said:

No team played 23 H&A matches since 2012 either

That's true, and I thought you'd need more wins than 15 to make the top 4 with that extra game.

15 wins and 8 losses will likely see us make top 4 with our percentage. That's a lot of losses to qualify for top 4. More than any year since 2012.

[titan_uranus 23,234]

11 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Ahh.. the luck thing.   Yes ...often a key ingredient in any venture.

Lucky for them... no Oliver,no Fritta... and nothing resembling an on fure forward presence by us. 

It's intriguing that other teams manage "training runs" over lower placed competition... but we seem to struggle by comparison.

Ww simply need to win this...somehow...otherwise they have it over us...and that wont be fun come September 

Others have already mentioned this but I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to argue here. 

Are you upset that we didn’t belt the Suns because they’ve been belted by other clubs recently? 

Just a reminder:

1. Brisbane lost to Hawthorn

2. Collingwood struggled against West Coast

3. St Kilda nearly lost to West Coast

4. Essendon is the only side to lose to Fremantle in the last 5 weeks

5. Geelong drew with Sydney who are currently bottom 4

6. Port have a relatively low percentage for a side on a 13-game win streak.

7. The Dogs lost to Gold Coast.

8. Off the top of my head we have 5 wins by 50+ points.

I genuinely don’t get why you think this is any sort of issue for us. Clearly our issue isn’t beating bad sides. It’s beating good ones. 

[Engorged Onion 9,603]

35 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

 Clearly our issue isn’t beating bad sides. It’s beating good ones. 

Collingwood?... Oh! I see what you did there! 🙌

[Binmans PA 26,733]

On 7/10/2023 at 12:43 PM, binman said:

I know you're taking the [censored]. Such a funny running gag - comedy gold. 

But if this were a serious question and not a wind up, my best guess is it is almost finished.

Actually to be accurate, i think the extra work has finished but we have another week where that additional work (ie extra work on top of the standard in season training loads) will impact our ability to cover the ground. 

This aligns with Selwyn Griffiths comments about what the training program will look like over the course of the season in the DL interview way back in March.  

Our pressure fell away to 158 in the last quarter against the Saints, a good indicator of fatigue - having not broken 180 for the match (180 is AFL average and 200 is considered elite).

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	176	173
2	174	169
3	178	186
4	158	172
Match	172	175

No doubt how physically taxing the Alice game was, combined with the six day break, is a big factor, but my assumption is loading is also a factor (and by the by, also a big factor in the selection decisions over the last month or so).  

But we were looking to spread against the Saints more than we have since the Hawks win, which suggests to me we are getting close.  

We have another six day break into the Lions game (as do they fortunately), but I think we will be closer to optimal running power on Friday night. 

Unlike say the Pies or the Crows (who we play the following week), the Lions, with their chronic lack of leg speed (which i think is the key reason they struggle at the G) are not well placed to exploit any lack of run in our legs.

But as noted, i think we are closer to our best shape and will look to spread and switch more than say against the Pies or Blues. And we will match them in the contest no problem. 

We then have nine days into the Crows game, with no travel this week or next week (unlike our two opponents).

My prediction is we will be cherry ripe against the Burgess Crows (who are very well placed to exploit any lack of run) and will start playing our very best football, with the sort of overlap running, fast transition, switching lanes, using the corridor, more risk, high scoring footy we saw rounds 1-6.  

Giddy up. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a week later against Richmond, rather than the Adelaide game. From Round 19 the past two seasons, we've turned the corner, and with the 24 week H&A, they may be targeting Round 20 instead. But love it, Binners.

And RE the pressure ratings and the expected score, it's why the St Kilda win was so important. To bank wins when you're not playing your best is what we have to do to finish top 4.

[Binmans PA 26,733]

On 7/10/2023 at 2:02 PM, beelzebub said:

Quite....if we cant knock off the Leos on our own deck......much of what comes after is moot imho.  We'll be making up the numbers...

Here we go again, laying the ground work for another Melbourne lose lose situation.

We win and "of course we should have won, that's the bare minimum", we lose "told you, we're making up the numbers".

I expect us to beat Brisbane FWIW.

[beelzebub 22,724]

1 minute ago, A F said:

Here we go again, laying the ground work for another Melbourne lose lose situation.

We win and "of course we should have won, that's the bare minimum", we lose "told you, we're making up the numbers".

I expect us to beat Brisbane FWIW.

Do you have a problem with reality ?

I want us to win friday.  For any number of reasons...but there are hurdles.  If we don't it ought to set off alarms. 

But if we dont then we're going into sept with any number of questions upon us.

For mine...we dont have a finals winning forward line.. do we even have one ? It's all very higgledy-piggledy atm.. even Goody says as much.   Now's not ideal for experimentation...but here we are.

Our defence is stellar... May it remain so. Our midfield is functional but not convincing. Forward line ??  take a number..auditions all week. 

You may think we're travelling ok. I dont.

You deal with it

 

[Engorged Onion 9,603]

So many posters on here suggesting they'd die happy after winning a premiership and proving otherwise ...😆😇

[Jaded No More 60,136]

1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

So many posters on here suggesting they'd die happy after winning a premiership and proving otherwise ...😆😇

After SEEING a premiership. I didn’t see it live. Doesn’t count. Can not die happy yet…😂

[COOLX 159]

The Dees will win all the following matches including the G.F. 

[Kent 2,676]

On 7/10/2023 at 7:28 PM, samcantstandya said:

Buckley has never rated us, but he is right we need to kick more goals and we can if we have the right personnel in the side

The Dees shouldn't be in this situation We lost a few very winnable games due to poor performance for players and coaches

Lucky to make the eight I agree with Bucks

[rpfc 27,692]

As Buckley says - fast forward two weeks and we could really be either scrapping for the 8 with the other battlers with 4th wide open or be two games and percentage clear in 4th.

We are a good team with an amazing press that should kick enough goals at home to beat interstate teams - Lions included. 

These two games against Lions and Crows set up the rest of the year.

And also after two rounds, the swans could be a game out of 7th, Geelong on their own in 5th, and Freo 2 and a half games out with the worst percentage outside the bottom 3 teams.

Edited July 12, 2023 by rpfc

[layzie 30,417]

13 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

So many posters on here suggesting they'd die happy after winning a premiership and proving otherwise ...😆😇

This is true, I guess we didn't know what we didn't know at the time!

Seeing it live is definitely an added carrot. 

[old55 21,874]

"I'll be happy when ..." - just a tip from an old campaigner: "when" never comes.

[speed demon 736]

32 minutes ago, old55 said:

"I'll be happy when ..." - just a tip from an old campaigner: "when" never comes.

Yep. It's an illusion. We might be happy temporarily but it fades as we adapt to the new normal. We acquire new desires and we are back to where we started. We have evolved this way to keep us pursuing things that promote survival (food, sex, wealth, power, status). Sadly, we have not evolved to be permanently happy. 

(Slightly) back on topic, the desire for premiership success is insatiable and an evolutionary by-product!   

[Demonland 66,975]