The Run Home

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

8 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Quite....if we cant knock off the Leos on our own deck......much of what comes after is moot imho.  We'll be making up the numbers...

 This isnt an 8 point game coming up...  its more than that....it's about relevance. 

How do you make sense if of the Lions getting smashed by 10 goals on their home deck by us and then bundling us out of finals a month later in 2022?

Edited July 10, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

Winning in the next few weeks means with losses by the teams around us means we can start planning for finals by resting and rotating players. Hell we might even play around with the forward line not to mention the dynamic ruck duo.

Lose and each week becomes a struggle for survival.

Lions winnning means all 3 teams above us can coast

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

6 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Winning in the next few weeks means with losses by the teams around us means we can start planning for finals by resting and rotating players. Hell we might even play around with the forward line not to mention the dynamic ruck duo.

Lose and each week becomes a struggle for survival.

Lions winnning means all 3 teams above us can coast

Lets hope because thats something we could not do last year and paid the price big time. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

34 minutes ago, old55 said:

In July 2021 we lost to GWS at the MCG, beat Port in Adelaide, drew with Hawthorn at the MCG and then lost to the Dogs at the MCG.

That was apparently in "the perfect season".

Just sayin' ...

Yes, fans are pretty good at re-writing history based on final outcomes. After 19 rounds in 2021 we were 3rd and not playing well. That all turned around with the GC win in Round 20 and from then everything turned to gold. If we'd lost to Geelong in Round 23 we would have been playing Port in Adelaide in a Qualifying and who knows? 

27 minutes ago, DubDee said:

We have a great in to finals.   We should win at least 5 which means top 4

Everyone ready for week 1 V the Pies?!?!  would prefer that over away to Port

Agreed. Obviously Top 2 would have been great but finishing 4th and playing Collingwood at the MCG is the same as finishing 1st and playing Collingwood at the MCG. 

16 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Quite....if we cant knock off the Leos on our own deck......much of what comes after is moot imho.  We'll be making up the numbers...

 This isnt an 8 point game coming up...  its more than that....it's about relevance. 

You don't decide who is relevant and a legitimate premiership chance with 6 rounds of the season to go. Also whether it's an 8-point game remaims to be seen. You'll only know that with the benefit of hindsight. One thing we do know and that is the Brisbane & Melbourne ladder positions won't change next week. I'd say it's an important game to win because it will help us in our attempts to finish Top 4 at season end. You could argue (again we won'y know til season's end) that it might be better to lose as finishing 4th and playing Colingwood would arguably be better than finishing 3rd and playing Port. Of course all that depends on what happens in the last 7 rounds. We definitely won't be finishing Top 2 unfortunately.

[binman 43,762]

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

All we need now is to find some solid avenues to goal. 
Fritta is an enormous loss for a side so lacking in powerful forwards. 
 

The avenues to goal will sort itself once we start moving the ball more quickly.

Ironically we saw a glimpse of what it will look like against the Saints (ironic becuase we are not yet at our running best yet - though i goes ironic isn't really the right word - unless you are Alanis Morrissette). 

A big factor in our accuracy in the first quarter - and the Saint's inaccuracy - was the fact that Saints dominated time in forward half. Meaning they had multiple, reentries into a crowded, chaotic forward zone. 

We got our goals on the counter, meaning we were entering a forward line with one on ones, space, leading lanes and the opportunity goals from the goal square.  

it was mirror of the entire game against the GWS

[binman 43,762]

13 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

We definitely won't be finishing Top 2 unfortunately.

No.

The Pies and Port will finish one two - a toss up who finishes top

The dees and lions will  finish either 3rd or 4th - a toss up who finishes 3rd

Fingers crossed we play the Pies week one. 

[beelzebub 23,383]

And if Port finishes first as opposed the Filth.....well thats a very different proposition. 

Personally i see the big dance as a prison bar event.

Still...lets try and get over Brisbane and see what the view looks like then. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,628]

16 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

And if Port finishes first as opposed the Filth.....well thats a very different proposition. 

Personally i see the big dance as a prison bar event.

Still...lets try and get over Brisbane and see what the view looks like then. 

tend to agree

While both teams are beatable on a given day they have the consistency which combined with the double chance that should see them through.

Collingwood's performance for 6 plus weeks without a recognized ruckman was amazing

[leave it to deever 17,517]

2 hours ago, Redleg said:

Excuse me:

Clarry 6 games and likely 10.

Fritta not right most of the season and then missing about 10 games.

Tom Mac surgery and half a season missing.

Salem nearly half a season.

Gawn 5 games.

BBB multiple games.

Hibbo half a season at least.

That is 30% of the Premiership side missing large chunks of the season, affecting team performance and continuity.

Also several injuries contributed to the loss of the game in which the injury occurred.

 

Petty was out for a while too.

[Redleg 41,433]

6 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

 

Petty was out for a while too.

Yes

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

3 hours ago, Redleg said:

Excuse me:

Clarry 6 games and likely 10.

Fritta not right most of the season and then missing about 10 games.

Tom Mac surgery and half a season missing.

Salem nearly half a season.

Gawn 5 games.

Petty a few games.

BBB multiple games.

Hibbo half a season at least.

That is 30% of the Premiership side missing large chunks of the season, affecting team performance and continuity.

Also several injuries contributed to the loss of the game in which the injury occurred.

Biggest Predictor of Premiership success is people on the park (key ones in particular)

We could easily have won 2/3 more matches due to a few kicks (sure and lost to the Suns and Tigers).

Over the next month, we get Salem, BBB and Gawn into better form, and perhaps Clayton and then finally Fritsch, and that is a premiership winning team, that has been spluttering due to injuries.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

We were lucky against the Saints that they went down with 3 injuries in the first to key players. This only really becomes an issue in the 4th where we only outscored them by 6 points. 

We lost the CP count marginally and i50 count reasonably. The fatigue from the hitout in Alice was no doubt a factor in our performance as others have pointed out and so this win was even more satisfying.

Still our overall cohesion, ball movement and skills is still worrying. Everyone is waiting for us to click in the forward half, but im afraid with every game played im losing hope. Our defensive game is the only thing that is keeping us in it atm. 

The Lions will beat us on Friday as i think we will really struggle to score and will rob Peter to pay Paul (Move Trac to Forward Line) to stand a chance, which will expose a lonely Viney to a Neal, Dunkley midfield combination. I also think the Crows will have us covered with their ball movement and general skills around the ball and in the front half. They were terrific against the Pies and if they bring that game, you cannot just pencil in a W.  

We should then have the Tigers and Norf covered so i expect a worst case 2-2 over the next 4 weeks. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

We have a great in to finals.   We should win at least 5 which means top 4

Everyone ready for week 1 V the Pies?!?!  would prefer that over away to Port

Agree that if we win 5 of our last 7 then we will make top 4 (unless one of Bulldogs, Essendon or Geelong win out which they won't)

Interestingly that since 2012 (when we first had an 18 team comp) no team has made the top 4 with 8 losses, and we'll have 8 losses assuming we go 5-2 and make the top 4. A good year for there to be a bunch of good-ordinary sides from 5th downwards.

[DubDee 26,117]

4 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Agree that if we win 5 of our last 7 then we will make top 4 (unless one of Bulldogs, Essendon or Geelong win out which they won't)

Interestingly that since 2012 (when we first had an 18 team comp) no team has made the top 4 with 8 losses, and we'll have 8 losses assuming we go 5-2 and make the top 4. A good year for there to be a bunch of good-ordinary sides from 5th downwards.

perhaps the extra 'gather' round plays a part in that too

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

5 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Our three major threats for top 4 are Essendon, Bulldogs and Geelong.

I have Essendon going 13-10 with losses to Geelong, Dogs and Collingwood. Therefore we need to go 3-4 to finish above them. Very achievable.

I have Geelong going 14-8-1 and only losing to Brisbane, while beating Port at home and even beating Collingwood in a revenge game from round 1. Therefore we need to go 5-2 to finish above them. Tough proposition. (maybe I rate Geelong higher than others but they are the reigning premiers and should be respected as such)

I have Bulldogs going 14-9 with losses only to Geelong in Geelong and a loss to one of Sydney away or Richmond at Marvel. They have a pretty soft draw. Therefore we need to go 4-3 to finish above them. Achievable.

At the end of the day, we need to improve significantly in our front half if we end up finishing top 4 and are to beat Port or Collingwood in week 1. Therefore I don't see a massive difference at the moment in finishing 4th or 5th. Either scenario will most likely land us into a semi final IMO.

 

Good summary, I see us locked into fourth.

[old55 23,687]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Agree that if we win 5 of our last 7 then we will make top 4 (unless one of Bulldogs, Essendon or Geelong win out which they won't)

Interestingly that since 2012 (when we first had an 18 team comp) no team has made the top 4 with 8 losses, and we'll have 8 losses assuming we go 5-2 and make the top 4. A good year for there to be a bunch of good-ordinary sides from 5th downwards.

No team played 23 H&A matches since 2012 either

[Mickey 4,731]

 

[samcantstandya 1,057]

8 hours ago, Demonland said:

 

Buckley has never rated us, but he is right we need to kick more goals and we can if we have the right personnel in the side

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

40 minutes ago, Mickey said:

 

Who gives a FF what Buckley thinks? We'll see about the Top 4 but the chances of Melbourne missing the Top 8 are about 100/1. One thing we'll know is that if a footy 'expert' gets their predictions right we'll never hear the end of it, but if they get it wrong they'll move on and hope no-one notices. I predict the 8th team will have a 12-11 record and maybe 110% percentage. For Melbourne to finish worse than that we'd need a 2-5 run home and a 17% percentage drop.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Sydney_Demon
Typos

[layzie 33,995]

Big game this week. Win and we're in, lose and we're out. 

Basically another different way of saying what's been said here 100 times.

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

This summarises the rest of the season:

On paper we have the easiest run home and can't see us falling out of the top 4..  While any team can win on any given day if we beat the Lions and Crows we can start resting players through the last 5 rounds.  It is unlikely that we go further up the top 4 and there is really no need so imv preparing the players for September is a greater priority.

Geelong has a very hard draw (they play each team 1 to 7 except the dees) but they will probably stay in the top 8 for lack of competition around them.  But crikey, I really hope they fall out of the 8 - they will be a real threat if they make it.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[beelzebub 23,383]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

This summarises the rest of the season:

On paper we have the easiest run home and can't see us falling out of the top 4..  While any team can win on any given day if we beat the Lions and Crows we can start resting players through the last 5 rounds.  It is unlikely that we go further up the top 4 and there is really no need so imv preparing the players for September is a greater priority.

Geelong has a very hard draw (they play each team 1 to 7 except the dees) but they will probably stay in the top 8 for lack of competition around them.  But crikey, I really hope they fall out of the 8 - they will be a real threat if they make it.

It's always about the IFS though.  That's  not to be deliberately pessimistic or such It's just to acknowledge nothing is a gimme in sport.

Fagans had our measure of late. Goodwin will have to be on the ball as the Lions wont hesitate shuffling the magnets to shut down whatever party tricks we intend to employ.

We just aren't consistent or settled. 

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

33 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Fagans had our measure of late. Goodwin will have to be on the ball as the Lions wont hesitate shuffling the magnets to shut down whatever party tricks we intend to employ.

We beat up on them by 10 goals at the Gabbitoir* in August and then we got done at the G when 1/3 of a team was significantly crocked in September. The beat us with our ruckman going down for what was feared an ACL in the first 10 mins of the match last time.

Which one is the more accurate represenation of the teams?

Don't buy into your anxiety  @beelzebub

We match up well... and without Fritsch and Oliver, we may lose it - and it's still not a 'true' reflection of our system vs theirs.

*I back our capacity to beat them at the Gabba, Port in Adelaide,  and clearly the Magpies at the 'G' in the finals.

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Engorged Onion

[Lucifers Hero 40,362]

21 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

It's always about the IFS though.  That's  not to be deliberately pessimistic or such It's just to acknowledge nothing is a gimme in sport.

Fagans had our measure of late. Goodwin will have to be on the ball as the Lions wont hesitate shuffling the magnets to shut down whatever party tricks we intend to employ.

We just aren't consistent or settled. 

Fagan got lucky in last year's final.  A third of our team was maimed.  Had we kicked straight the game would have been over by half time.

Lions' ladder position flatters them.  Since the bye they had a significant (but not big margin loss) to Hawks, so so wins over Swans and Saints and training runs over Tigers and Eagles.

I reckon we go into this game with better and more consistent performances.  While we haven't kicked winning scores sometimes we have been the better team and played very good football.  Anyway thier defence is average, not necessarily their back 6/7 but their overall ground defence.

Even if we lose to the Lions we are effectively two games ahead of 5th.  Teams below us need to win two more games than we do and given there are only 7 games left, I don't like anyone's chances of doing that.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,408]

16 hours ago, binman said:

No.

The Pies and Port will finish one two - a toss up who finishes top

The dees and lions will  finish either 3rd or 4th - a toss up who finishes 3rd

Fingers crossed we play the Pies week one. 

I’d rather Port myself.