Jump to content

How many wins will see us play finals?

Previously known as LITD.
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

Posted

I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

I think it's a pretty tight season.

Keen to hear other opinions.

  • Quote
    •  

    Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
    We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

  • Quote
    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
     
    • Author
    15 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

    Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
    We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

    Agreed but I don't think it's going to be easy. The blues look less of a threat and we play them twice. North and hawks too. At stretch id say we get 15 or 16. But I reckon 14 and % is top 4 the way the season is. 

  • Quote

    16 minutes ago, Nascent said:

    On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

    Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

     

    These four sides are a mile in front of the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up a significant difference between 4th and 5th - even 3 games. Ordering these sides right now is anyone's guess. It'll all come down to injuries and who has the healthiest list come finals time.

  • Quote
    • Like 3
    1 hour ago, Nascent said:

    On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

    Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

     

    Saints have the softest draw in the world. They could finish top 4 by virtue of beating nobody. 

  • Quote
    • Like 2
     
    2 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

    I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

    I think it's a pretty tight season.

    Keen to hear other opinions.

    9b87bb25-3ade-447a-acf5-962117267cff_tex

  • Quote
    • Haha 4
    31 minutes ago, Beetle said:

    9b87bb25-3ade-447a-acf5-962117267cff_tex

    Now I’ve gotta go to bed with this in my head. 
     

    Great. 

  • Quote
    • Love 1
    • Haha 3

    2 hours ago, Nascent said:

    On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

    Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

     

    And the South Australian filth ? Ross Lyon and his easy draw ?

  • Quote
    3 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

    I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

    I think it's a pretty tight season.

    Keen to hear other opinions.

    Given there are now 23 games, 12 might not be enough to finish top 8 of 18. I'd say 13. Not sure about your comment on percentage. Clearly if we finish with 12 wins our percentage would drop a lot from where we are now, but I agree we do have a healthy percetage after 8 games compared to nost others. 

    2 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

    These four sides are a mile in front of the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up a significant difference between 4th and 5th - even 3 games. Ordering these sides right now is anyone's guess. It'll all come down to injuries and who has the healthiest list come finals time.

    Can't see how you can say that Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong are miles ahead of the rest. Collingwood had arguably a lucky win against Adelaide last week and against Esendon the week before. We had a close win today, lost to Essendon and could have lost against Richmond if they'd kicked straight. Geelong were shaky earlier in the season and lost to Gold Coast. I would agree these 4 look best at the moment but a long way to go and definitely not miiles ahead. 

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    3 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

    Agreed but I don't think it's going to be easy. The blues look less of a threat and we play them twice. North and hawks too. At stretch id say we get 15 or 16. But I reckon 14 and % is top 4 the way the season is. 

    We also play Richmond twice. And Swans though they may improve before the end of the season.

  • Quote
    • Thanks 1

    I think the thread should be a bit more optimistic, 'How many wins for top 4 or 2?', we are almost unbackable to be in the 8.

    So anyway, 17 for 4, 18 for top 2.

  • Quote
    • Like 5

    9 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

    These four sides are a mile in front of the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up a significant difference between 4th and 5th - even 3 games. Ordering these sides right now is anyone's guess. It'll all come down to injuries and who has the healthiest list come finals time.

    A mile in front? 

    We've lost to Essendon and were smashed by Brisbane up until the power went out. Our form has been pretty inconsistent from game to game and we were extremely lucky to win today in the end given 

    Collingwood and Brisbane would easily account for us if we played them right now and our ladder position is not reflective of our form but rather our draw. 

    Beat Carlton and Collingwood in a few weeks and I'll believe more. 

    It's a long way to go cobba and I think your Melbourne glasses need to be taken off.. 

     

    Edited by JimmyGadson

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    44 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

    A mile in front? 

    We've lost to Essendon and were smashed by Brisbane up until the power went out. Our form has been pretty inconsistent from game to game and we were extremely lucky to win today in the end given 

    Collingwood and Brisbane would easily account for us if we played them right now and our ladder position is not reflective of our form but rather our draw. 

    Beat Carlton and Collingwood in a few weeks and I'll believe more. 

    It's a long way to go cobba and I think your Melbourne glasses need to be taken off.. 

     

    beat Geelong, and ill believe 

  • Quote

    We have a potential advantage over the top 4 sides as the fixture Gods have smiled on us this year; last year they smiled on Geelong.

    We play 3 of the current bottom 4 sides twice:  Richmond, North and Hawks with 4 of those games yet to be played.  Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood do not play any of them twice!!

    Teams played twice:

    • Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
    • Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
    • Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
    • Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney

    There are no easy games as we learnt last night.

    Never fear D'landers we will be top 2!!

    Edited by Lucifers Hero

  • Quote
    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    • Love 2

    12 and 11 will see you spend September in Bali.

    And with the dead beats down the bottom and no dominant teams soaking up all the wins up top - I can see 14 wins being what 8 finishes with. With percentage playing a big part in order of places toward the top of the ladder.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    52 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    We have a potential advantage over the top 4 sides as the fixture Gods have smiled on us this year; last year they smiled was Geelong.

    We play 3 of the current bottom 4 sides twice:  Richmond, North and Hawks with 4 of those games yet to be played.  Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood do not play any of them twice!!

    Teams played twice:

    • Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
    • Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
    • Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
    • Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney

    There are no easy games as we learnt last night.

    Never fear D'landers we will be top 2!!

    Wow that is quite an advantageous difference.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    25 minutes ago, old55 said:

    Wow that is quite an advantageous difference.

    Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

    • Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
    • Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
    • Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
    • Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
    • St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
    • Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
    • Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

    Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

    Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

    I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

    Edited by Lucifers Hero

  • Quote
    • Like 5
    • Thanks 2
    11 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

    • Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
    • Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
    • Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
    • Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
    • St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
    • Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
    • Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

    Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

    Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

    I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

    Thanks, great analysis. One update: North need an underline in the Essendon set.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
    16 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

    • Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
    • Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
    • Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
    • Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
    • St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
    • Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
    • Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

    Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

    Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

    I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

    Out of all those current top 8 teams, I'd say Port probably have the toughest double ups.

    Could be bye bye Ken at the end of the season when they miss the 8. 

    Alternatively if they make it, they could be either cooked through fighting so hard just to make it or one of the better sides in the bottom half of the 8.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
     
    12 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

    Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
    We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

    Add to that being in good form and a fit list hitting first week of finals so we get a repeat of 2021 and not 2022.

  • Quote
    • Like 1
    16 minutes ago, old55 said:

    Thanks, great analysis. One update: North need an underline in the Essendon set.

    Thanks.  Updated.

  • Quote
    • Like 1

    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • CASEY: Essendon

      Casey’s unbeaten run was extended for at least another fortnight after the Demons overran a persistent Essendon line up by 29 points at ETU Stadium in Port Melbourne last night. After conceding the first goal of the evening, Casey went on a scoring spree from about ten minutes in, with five unanswered majors with its fleet of midsized runners headed by the much improved Paddy Cross who kicked two in quick succession and livewire Ricky Mentha who also kicked an early goal. Leading the charge was recruit of the year, Riley Bonner while Bailey Laurie continued his impressive vein of form. With Tom Campbell missing from the lineup, Will Verrall stepped up to the plate demonstrating his improvement under the veteran ruckman’s tutelage. The Demons were looking comfortable for much of the second quarter and held a 25-point lead until the Bombers struck back with two goals in the shadows of half time. On the other side of the main break their revival continued with first three goals of the half. Harry Sharp, who had been quiet scrambled in the Demons’ first score of the third term to bring the margin back to a single point at the 17 minute mark and the game became an arm-wrestle for the remainder of the quarter and into the final moments of the last.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Gold Coast

      The Demons have the Bye next week but then are on the road once again when they come up against the Gold Coast Suns on the Gold Coast in what could be a last ditch effort to salvage their season. Who comes in and who comes out?

      • 17 replies
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: Port Adelaide

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 16th June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Dees disappointing loss to the Power.
      Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
      Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

        • Like
      • 9 replies
      Demonland

    • POSTGAME: Port Adelaide

      The Demons simply did not take their opportunities when they presented themselves and ultimately when down by 25 points effectively ending their finals chances. Goal kicking practice during the Bye?

        • Haha
        • Thanks
      • 212 replies
      Demonland

    • VOTES: Port Adelaide

      Max Gawn has an insurmountable lead in the Demonland Player of the Year ahead of Jake Bowey, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Kozzy Pickett. Your votes please; 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1.

        • Thanks
      • 25 replies
      Demonland

    • GAMEDAY: Port Adelaide

      It’s Game Day, and the Demons are on the road for the next month and will be desperate to claim a crucial win to keep their finals hopes alive against Port Adelaide.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 786 replies
      Demonland
    View All