How many wins will see us play finals?

[leave it to deever 17,451]

I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

I think it's a pretty tight season.

Keen to hear other opinions.

[Nascent 8,645]

21 wins should see us playing finals for sure.

[Jaded No More 67,643]

Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

[leave it to deever 17,451]

15 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

Agreed but I don't think it's going to be easy. The blues look less of a threat and we play them twice. North and hawks too. At stretch id say we get 15 or 16. But I reckon 14 and % is top 4 the way the season is. 

[Nascent 8,645]

On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

 

[Great Northern Summer 701]

16 minutes ago, Nascent said:

On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

 

These four sides are a mile in front of the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up a significant difference between 4th and 5th - even 3 games. Ordering these sides right now is anyone's guess. It'll all come down to injuries and who has the healthiest list come finals time.

[Jaded No More 67,643]

1 hour ago, Nascent said:

On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

 

Saints have the softest draw in the world. They could finish top 4 by virtue of beating nobody. 

[Little Goffy 14,001]

Just one more...

I think the margin will be... wafer thin.

[Beetle 4,532]

2 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

I think it's a pretty tight season.

Keen to hear other opinions.

[McQueen 17,864]

31 minutes ago, Beetle said:

Now I’ve gotta go to bed with this in my head. 
 

Great. 

[dl4e 5,850]

2 hours ago, Nascent said:

On the top 4. Fair chance it remains like it is now.

Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong

 

And the South Australian filth ? Ross Lyon and his easy draw ?

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

3 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

I'd wager 12 with our % but I'm sure we will have more.

I think it's a pretty tight season.

Keen to hear other opinions.

Given there are now 23 games, 12 might not be enough to finish top 8 of 18. I'd say 13. Not sure about your comment on percentage. Clearly if we finish with 12 wins our percentage would drop a lot from where we are now, but I agree we do have a healthy percetage after 8 games compared to nost others. 

2 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

These four sides are a mile in front of the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up a significant difference between 4th and 5th - even 3 games. Ordering these sides right now is anyone's guess. It'll all come down to injuries and who has the healthiest list come finals time.

Can't see how you can say that Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, Geelong are miles ahead of the rest. Collingwood had arguably a lucky win against Adelaide last week and against Esendon the week before. We had a close win today, lost to Essendon and could have lost against Richmond if they'd kicked straight. Geelong were shaky earlier in the season and lost to Gold Coast. I would agree these 4 look best at the moment but a long way to go and definitely not miiles ahead. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,360]

I reckon 13 with a poor percentage.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,704]

3 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

Agreed but I don't think it's going to be easy. The blues look less of a threat and we play them twice. North and hawks too. At stretch id say we get 15 or 16. But I reckon 14 and % is top 4 the way the season is. 

We also play Richmond twice. And Swans though they may improve before the end of the season.

[DEE fence 4,923]

I think the thread should be a bit more optimistic, 'How many wins for top 4 or 2?', we are almost unbackable to be in the 8.

So anyway, 17 for 4, 18 for top 2.

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

9 hours ago, Glorious Day said:

These four sides are a mile in front of the rest. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up a significant difference between 4th and 5th - even 3 games. Ordering these sides right now is anyone's guess. It'll all come down to injuries and who has the healthiest list come finals time.

A mile in front? 

We've lost to Essendon and were smashed by Brisbane up until the power went out. Our form has been pretty inconsistent from game to game and we were extremely lucky to win today in the end given 

Collingwood and Brisbane would easily account for us if we played them right now and our ladder position is not reflective of our form but rather our draw. 

Beat Carlton and Collingwood in a few weeks and I'll believe more. 

It's a long way to go cobba and I think your Melbourne glasses need to be taken off.. 

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by JimmyGadson

[cookieboc 740]

44 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

A mile in front? 

We've lost to Essendon and were smashed by Brisbane up until the power went out. Our form has been pretty inconsistent from game to game and we were extremely lucky to win today in the end given 

Collingwood and Brisbane would easily account for us if we played them right now and our ladder position is not reflective of our form but rather our draw. 

Beat Carlton and Collingwood in a few weeks and I'll believe more. 

It's a long way to go cobba and I think your Melbourne glasses need to be taken off.. 

 

beat Geelong, and ill believe 

[Lucifers Hero 38,982]

We have a potential advantage over the top 4 sides as the fixture Gods have smiled on us this year; last year they smiled on Geelong.

We play 3 of the current bottom 4 sides twice:  Richmond, North and Hawks with 4 of those games yet to be played.  Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood do not play any of them twice!!

Teams played twice:

• Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
• Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
• Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
• Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney

There are no easy games as we learnt last night.

Never fear D'landers we will be top 2!!

Edited May 6, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[rpfc 28,048]

12 and 11 will see you spend September in Bali.

And with the dead beats down the bottom and no dominant teams soaking up all the wins up top - I can see 14 wins being what 8 finishes with. With percentage playing a big part in order of places toward the top of the ladder.

[old55 22,793]

52 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

We have a potential advantage over the top 4 sides as the fixture Gods have smiled on us this year; last year they smiled was Geelong.

We play 3 of the current bottom 4 sides twice:  Richmond, North and Hawks with 4 of those games yet to be played.  Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood do not play any of them twice!!

Teams played twice:

• Brisbane: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda
• Collingwood: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
• Geelong: Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Western Bulldogs
• Melbourne: Brisbane, Carlton, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond, Sydney

There are no easy games as we learnt last night.

Never fear D'landers we will be top 2!!

Wow that is quite an advantageous difference.

[Lucifers Hero 38,982]

25 minutes ago, old55 said:

Wow that is quite an advantageous difference.

Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

• Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
• Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
• St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
• Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
• Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[old55 22,793]

11 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

• Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
• Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
• St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
• Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
• Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

Thanks, great analysis. One update: North need an underline in the Essendon set.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,631]

16 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Had a quick look at the draw for other top 8 contenders,  Teams each plays twice:

• Adelaide: Brisbane, Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Carlton: Collingwood, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda, West Coast
• Essendon: Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, West Coast
• Port Adelaide: Adelaide, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Western Bulldogs
• St Kilda: Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Richmond
• Sydney: Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, Richmond
• Western Bulldogs: Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, Richmond

Similar to Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood, those teams will have more 8-point games than Dees (and Saints) and their potential for big % boosts won't be as plentiful.

Short of major injuries or some other disaster I can't see us not making the top 4. 

I'm ok with top 4 especially as the other teams are likely to be Vic teams so our finals will be at the G - as long as we don't get an Away game vs Brisbane.

Out of all those current top 8 teams, I'd say Port probably have the toughest double ups.

Could be bye bye Ken at the end of the season when they miss the 8. 

Alternatively if they make it, they could be either cooked through fighting so hard just to make it or one of the better sides in the bottom half of the 8.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,631]

12 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Forget finals. Don’t finish top 4 and get a home final and we are cooked. 
We need 16 wins minimum IMO to give the flag a shake. 

Add to that being in good form and a fit list hitting first week of finals so we get a repeat of 2021 and not 2022.

[Lucifers Hero 38,982]

16 minutes ago, old55 said:

Thanks, great analysis. One update: North need an underline in the Essendon set.

Thanks.  Updated.