PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Sydney

[layzie 33,811]

1 hour ago, Vipercrunch said:

Am I the only one that scrolls straight past any post that puts up their entire proposed team line up but doesn't actually specifiy who is in and who is out?  

Yeah, there's a bit of TL;DR about it. 

[binman 42,975]

14 hours ago, Gator said:

I reckon a team has about one, or at the most 2, crunch games per year (not including finals).

This is Melbourne's.

Sydney have not been beaten in 16 of their last 20 games against the Dees.  They massively have the wood over this club.  Yes, we won in 2021, but we and they both know that that doesn't change the fact that they have our measure as a football club.  It's in their psyche and ours.

If Melbourne want to reinstate some authority, demeanor, or aura over the competition, they must win this game on their home ground.  Not many will agree with my next comment, but I believe if we can't beat this younger and less experienced side on our home ground then we're not winning the premiership in 2023.  It's a must win.  It's that important.

They'll be smarting from their last game on the 'G, but our imperatives are equally important.

Am I confident ?  A resounding no.  But they must find a way.

It's never easy to break a dominance, because they're there until they're not.  And they can last a very long time.

I sense there's still a slight fragility about this team.  The flag notwithstanding.

I'll learn a heap by Sunday night.

It's as crunch as you get.

I agree wholeheartedly with almost of the above - not so sure about not winning means no premiership, but i take the point nonetheless and my confidence in our chances will certainly take  a hit if we lose. 

Huge test of where we are at on a couple of fronts.

One, we need to psycologically rebound from last week and the impact of Maxy going down. We need to stand up this week and prove that we can win without Maxy and that there are mutiple leaders.

And two, the numbers are stark - i had forgotton how bad (4 win in 20 games? Shesh).

I think a big factor in that record, at least in the last 2-3 seasons is that their method (fast ball movement off hb, quick transition, incisive kicking etc) works well against our game plan.

We have made some tweaks to our game plan, defensively and offensively. Offensively the tweaks involve faster ball movement, playing on from marks and more changes of lanes, particualry into the corridor.

In many ways these tweaks are a direct response to the way the Swans and Pies are playing. 

We struggled to implement those tweaks last week, for whatever reason, until the resumption after the break. In this week's game we realy need to make sure we continue to implement the changes to our approach we worked on all preseason.

For me that's part of the reason why this game will be a real test of where we're at, and one of the reasons why, as you say gator, this game is so critical. 

The weather will be perfect. We can plan for no Max. We will have a strong team on. No exuses.

So i'm really hoping to see, right from the get go, fast ball movement, quick transition from the back half and aggessive kicks to the corridor. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by binman

[DubDee 25,882]

Sydney are without Hickey, Sam Reid and Wicks for the game

also have 2 less days to recover than we do

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,838]

Hickey and Reid apparently still unavailable according to the AFL website which is at least something.

Clarke who shut Salem out of the game in the final as a defensive forward is also supposed to be out.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/891822/in-the-mix-r3-who-s-under-the-pump-pushing-for-selection-

Putting them aside, they have a pretty full list and are flying.

I don't care if they've only beaten GC and Hawthorn, they're a well drilled outfit with highly skilled and talented players.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,838]

2 minutes ago, DubDee said:

Sydney are without Hickey, Sam Reid and Wicks for the game

also have 2 less days to recover than we do

Whilst that does sound like an advantage, they'll be coming off a 7 day break in a laugher of a result. They'll be fine.

Hope you're right though.

[58er 6,444]

7 hours ago, David-Demon said:

Your question has merit but I think we need to remind ourselves who we are playing and at what level despite the relatively unknown factors as to how good Sth Melb are this year. So indoctrinating JVR in this game I think is not a wise move. I would therefore seek experience in the form of JJ and / or Tomlinson. Save JVR for a lower / lesser team indoctrination . We cannot afford to gamble and also lose 4 points. But we need Maysie back for sure.

For the very reason you say NO to JVR I say YES PLEASE. Get him in as the Weid 2nd ruck role ( that he could not grab due to his uncompetitive ness) resting forward and supporting Brody and around the ground. He played that to perfection last Sat at Casey snd with Max sidelined for up to 6 matches JVR deserves his debut. 

Playing him is not going to lose us the game as we have to play smarter vs Swans than we have for the past 20 years and Goody must be accountable for our recent record vs the Swans, 

[58er 6,444]

Just now, 58er said:

For the very reason you say NO to JVR I say YES PLEASE. Get him in as the Weid 2nd ruck role ( that he could not grab due to his uncompetitive ness) resting forward and supporting Brody and around the ground. He played that to perfection last Sat at Casey snd with Max sidelined for up to 6 matches JVR deserves his debut. 

Playing him is not going to lose us the game as we have to play smarter vs Swans than we have for the past 20 years and Goody must be accountable for our recent record vs the Swans, 

PS We are not playing STH MELB. Not sure you are hoping it's like the old Swans before Their move to Sydney. 
 
Same as we are not The REDLEGS that is Norwood in the SANFL. I am not sure when we became the Demons but think it was some time in the '40's when The great Checker Hughes was coaching premierships. 

I know we value and love our history in two great eras last century but the DEMONS won all the 50's 60's and most importantly the 2021 premiership not the previous name. Of Fuschias and Redlegs if in fact that was ever our name!! 
 

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

ANB on SEN after 2pm fellow minions

[DubDee 25,882]

As the weather is looking good I reckon we'll get a good crowd

Some fans (eg my parents) only go to day games, this is our first for the year and we don't have another until round 11.  

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,703]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Sydney are without Hickey, Sam Reid and Wicks for the game

also have 2 less days to recover than we do

They played Hawthorn in what was a bruise free walk in the park type set up.

So they come in fresh.

[layzie 33,811]

At least Sam Reid won't be there to destroy us. 

[In Harmes Way 7,783]

4 hours ago, layzie said:

Seems to be a lot of not so confident people here. I'm not so confident myself but surely there's some hope? We get a shot at this mob on our deck and hopefully we've seen how this team has beaten us in the past and will make the appropriate adjustments this time. 

This is why I'm not optimistic. I don't get why on Friday night we couldn't make adjustments at half time when the game was on the line, but we could make adjustments after the lights went out. I don't think we're good at adjusting. We just pull out our big guns and try to blow them off the park. I don't think that works against Sydney.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,838]

5 minutes ago, layzie said:

At least Sam Reid won't be there to destroy us. 

Almost their version of Kent Kingsley.

[binman 42,975]

11 minutes ago, layzie said:

At least Sam Reid won't be there to destroy us. 

He'll still kick a bag.

Edited March 29, 2023 by binman

[layzie 33,811]

1 minute ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Almost their version of Kent Kingsley.

Loved a game against Melbourne. 

I remember being down at the cattery for the draw in late 06 and the heckling he was getting from Cats fans in the old Ablett Terrace. May well have been his last game there. 

[layzie 33,811]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

He'll still kick a bag.

He can kick rocks for now 🙂

[DeeSpencer 25,713]

5 hours ago, Gator said:

Gawn played one of his all time best games against them last year.  Result ?  We lost.  Our system didn't hold up despite his individual brilliance.

Great teams can cover one or two great players.

We can't cover Gawn against Peter Ladhams even though we have Grundy ?  I don't buy it.

Pickett is a significant loss, but he's one player.  I'm not confident we'll win this game but I am confident it's a must win despite a 21 year olds absence.

The impact on Gawn I’m most worried about is when he goes to CHF and provides a magnet for quick long kicks. We should be able to cover him in the ruck and it’s about time our backline stood up without him too.

The point I’m making is I think it’s a ‘must play well’ and I want to see our system hold up. If we come up a few goals short but play the right well I won’t be too worried because we’re missing a couple and it’s April.
 

If we play stodgy defensive [censored] and fall short I’ll be worried nothing has changed from last year. 

[DeeSpencer 25,713]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

As the weather is looking good I reckon we'll get a good crowd

Some fans (eg my parents) only go to day games, this is our first for the year and we don't have another until round 11.  

Grand Prix crowd might be 130,000 people. Let’s say 50% of them are footy fans, and 10% of that number are Melb or Swans fans. Suddenly you’ve lost 6,500 from the Sunday crowd. Not to mention people will choose to stay home so they have 2 screens going.

Its a stitch up of a fixture.

Edited March 29, 2023 by DeeSpencer

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Im swinging between both possible outcomes quite frequently. On one hand, im expecting quite a significant response from the whole team. I expect hard running and frantic pressure, but on the other hand im also not sure what type of melbourne team is going to show up. 

Sydney melted in the GF when they were met with similar pressure from the Cats and they just couldnt settle. They'll have some misplaced confidence from the two bruise free wins from this year and the fact they have the wood over us. It just takes a small amount of complacency to get put on your bum.

Game plan wise, i think (hope) we'll see something a little different to stifle their ball movement. We have to capitalize when we have the ball and kick 4-5 goals in the first 15 minutes - anything less will keep them in the game for longer. The key is to dent their confidence and get them to lose some dare in ball movement and start playing a little more conservatively. If we can do this (ala Dogs and many other teams in 21) we will be able to really lock the game down defensively and capitalise on turnover and scores from HB. 

A few key matchups: We have to make McCartin accountable. If JVR plays, you can bet your house that'll try to force that matchup. We need manic forward half pressure from Chandler, ANB and Spargs. Getting anything out of TMAC, BBB and Fritta is a pipe dream so we need to make sure these smaller fellas are instructed to run and tackle hard. 

Gulden is one of their better kicks and we cannot let him get off the handle on the wing or HF. Similarly the lizard is a reasonable kick off HB and has some pace. We have to have a defensive matchup on both.

Lastly is our offesnive ball movement. I dont rate Sydney's back six that highly and are vulnerable to faster ball movement. They can be scored heavily against if you move it quickly against them.

So in summary: pressure all over the ground, to force turnover and/or win contest and clerance -> quick ball movement to stop defenders zoning off and isolate our key forwards. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,589]

47 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Grand Prix crowd might be 130,000 people. Let’s say 50% of them are footy fans, and 10% of that number are Melb or Swans fans. Suddenly you’ve lost 6,500 from the Sunday crowd. Not to mention people will choose to stay home so they have 2 screens going.

Its a stitch up of a fixture.

Add to that very few if any travelling Swans fans. Hotel and flight costs on GP weekend are high and would have been booked heavily by GP fans before the AFL fixture was released

[Docs Demons 1,791]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

The impact on Gawn I’m most worried about is when he goes to CHF and provides a magnet for quick long kicks. We should be able to cover him in the ruck and it’s about time our backline stood up without him too.

The point I’m making is I think it’s a ‘must play well’ and I want to see our system hold up. If we come up a few goals short but play the right well I won’t be too worried because we’re missing a couple and it’s April.
 

If we play stodgy defensive [censored] and fall short I’ll be worried nothing has changed from last year. 

Spot on Dee S. Whilst the Swannies have owned us a bit of late, the games have in the main, have been close. I think this game is a real test for the team and ALSO the Coach and his deputies. They should know by now what the Swans do to us so I'm looking for a response from all and sundry.

[Deemania since 56 6,640]

17 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Does Joel Smith really get a run this week? 

I'd think he does.

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,736]

With a crunch game coming up and the poor form of the side on the weekend I'm thinking the following changes for Sunday:

Ins: Hibberd, van Rooyen, Jordon & May

Outs: Tomlinson, McVee, Gawn & Harmes

Happy with how McVee's career has started but if Hibberd is in form he has to come in as the lockdown defender for Papley.

May for Tommo is a like for like, though Petty is also a watch at the moment but keen to see how we plays with May back.

I'd like to see Jordon come in for Harmes to add his ball winning ability and disciplined gamestyle.

It's JVR time! As long as he competes in the air and when the ball hits the deck I will be happy. Not expecting big numbers but just to play his role.

[layzie 33,811]

If Smith comes in over JVR I'll be pretty disappointed. The time is right for a debut and I'd rather be blooding now than later. 

[loges 6,767]

If not JVR this week then when? It would be a poor decision to leave him out imo .