Stats Files - 2023

[Deelightful Dee 152]

Great to get the win yesterday, but I'd love some less stressful finishes! 

We were just under our expected score (-1) accoring to Champion Data, whilst the Crows were +7, meaning we would have won by 12 points rather than 4 if both teams kicked to AFL average. I interpret this as our underlying game play was slightly better than the actual score line suggests.

Really insightful stats from @WheeloRatings, particularly in relation to our D50 goals. We had a huge spike in these yesterday, with 66 compared to our season average of 36, making up more than two thirds of our score. This has been a trend the last couple of weeks with us scoring 28 vs Lions and 51 vs Saints after struggling vs Giants (11) and Cats (4). This seems to be a function of either a change in game plan, better weather (or playing under a roof) or a reversion to earlier in the year when we were less focused on forward half dominance and happier to play the turnover, quick ball movement game from the defensive half. Not sure how sustainable this is given the further you need to move the ball, the less likely you generally are to score. In saying that, striking a balance and being good at both is probably the way to go depending on what the opposition's weakness is. Our high score does paper over the cracks of our inability to score from F50 this week though with only 2 points coming from this area. The fact that the opposition took 17 intercept marks and we only had 1 tackle inside 50 from 52 entries didn't help this week either, although I sense this is an exception without having these stats readily available.

[DeeZone 7,821]

On 7/16/2023 at 9:59 AM, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 18, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.285	1	5.320	-0.66	1	0
C Petracca	4.691	2	4.456	5.27	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.826	3	3.839	-0.34	5	2
J Jordon >	3.775	4	3.164	19.31	9	5
Jack Viney	3.727	5	3.971	-6.14	3	-2
T Rivers <	3.625	6	2.423	49.61	18	12
Max Gawn	3.412	7	3.643	-6.34	8	1
Steven May	3.233	8	3.971	-18.58	3	-5
C Salem	3.191	9	3.363	-5.11	7	-2
B Grundy	3.159	10	-	-	-	-
Ed Langdon	3.127	11	3.109	0.58	11	0
Jake Bowey <	3.105	12	2.856	8.72	13	1
Jake Lever	3.041	13	2.703	12.50	14	1
L Hunter	3.005	14	-	-	-	-
A Tomlinson	2.965	15	2.079	42.62	22	7
T Sparrow	2.950	16	2.665	10.69	16	0
J Harmes >	2.804	17	3.082	-9.02	12	-5
M Hibberd <	2.589	18	2.613	-0.92	17	-1
H Petty <	2.571	19	2.392	7.48	19	0
A N-Bullen	2.481	20	2.688	-7.70	15	-5
K Chandler <	2.360	21	-	-	-	-
Judd McVee	2.271	22	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch	2.230	23	1.936	15.19	27	4
K Pickett	2.207	24	2.118	4.20	21	-3
J V Rooyen	2.138	25	-	-	-	-
T McDonald	2.054	26	1.967	4.42	26	0
Ben Brown <	1.975	27	1.762	12.09	29	2
C Spargo <	1.886	28	1.981	-4.80	24	-4
T Woewodin	1.725	29	-	-	-	-
Joel Smith >	1.541	30	2.239	-31.17	20	-10
J Melksham >	1.536	31	1.947	-21.11	25	-6
J Schache *	1.375	32	-	-	-	-
B Laurie < > *	1.300	33	-	-	-	-
D Turner < *	1.075	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	71.19		69.48	2.47

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Look forward to your Crows Dees stats DD.!!

[Demon Dynasty 15,637]

Round 19, 2023 MCG - Demons vs Crows

Poetic outcome for Ed on his 150th.  Hopefully we can see those sort of levels from here and throughout the finals!

Just saw your post thanks DZ...you would have sent that as i was finalising!

Shouldn't read too much into one week but...

Some worrying numbers here amongst many.  How we even got over the line is a minor miracle given the Team Rating (TR) was down 18% on the season's average TR to last week.

Need to keep in mind the Clarry factor on the team rating.  Excruciating wait time now...bah!

Of course there were a few who bucked the trend & had a day out such as Ed (up 42%) , Kozzy & Chandler (50% +) and others who had a very good day (statistically) such as Rivers, ANB & Tomo.

Making up 10% to 20% differentials from usual season averages is certainly within reach and not usually a cause for alarm.  However when you see this over many many weeks (eg., May who is presently off his 2022 season average by approx 18% to last week) then of course some bells might start ringing a little as to what's going on.

25% - 30% plus however is a long way off and somewhat more concerning even if its a one week result.

Unless said player was under an effective lock/run with from opponent in this match (eg; possibly Viney), just having a one-off poor day or maybe the flu or similar.

Of course numbers can also be a poor indicator of what happened.  Most would say Jack was very influential on the outcome yesterday and one of our best, if not our best, but his rating doesn't reflect that.  His rating impacted by a hefty 9 turnovers, the most of any player on the day.

Watching the game however, you probably don't take as much notice given the heavy inside combative nature of Viney's game style and the positive outcomes that arise as a result.  Stats also don't take into account how well the oppo is playing / pressuring etc.  Not taking into account the oppo's efforts etc is also not doing the game any justice.

As i often say, always best to watch the game of course with stats being a mere rough incomplete guide as to what took place on the day.

P.S. take no notice of Smith's rating in this match vs his season rating as he was the sub and only played 21% match time.  Unfair comparison.

On the day i thought he was VG after coming on and should have been subbed in much earlier imv.  BB looked way off his best (this season) and a mile off his best in 2021 failing to get to many drops, unable to work his way into front position and very few effective leads.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	24.50
% In50s Goal	26.90
Conversion %	51.90

Crows Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	26.08
% In50s Goal	24.10
Conversion %	46.40

Player	Rating	Rank	Season Rating to Prior Rnd	% Change vs Season Rating
Ed Langdon	4.450	1	3.127	42.31
T Rivers	4.350	2	3.625	20.00
C Petracca	3.850	3	4.691	-17.93
K Chandler	3.775	4	2.360	59.96
A Brayshaw	3.750	5	3.826	-1.99
K Pickett	3.400	6	2.207	54.06
A Tomlinson	3.350	7	2.965	12.98
Max Gawn	3.275	8	3.412	-4.02
Jake Lever	2.875	9	3.041	-5.46
A N-Bullen	2.800	10	2.481	12.86
C Salem	2.725	11	3.191	-14.60
Jake Bowey	2.500	12	3.105	-19.48
T Sparrow	2.350	13	2.905	-19.10
S May	2.200	14	3.233	-31.95
J V Rooyen	2.200	15	2.138	2.90
Jack Viney	2.125	16	3.727	-42.98
J Jordon	1.900	17	3.775	-49.67
Judd McVee	1.825	18	2.271	-19.64
L Hunter	1.525	19	3.005	-49.25
T Woewodin	1.150	20	1.725	-33.33
B Brown < 61%	1.000	21	1.975	-49.37
J Smith > 21%	0.875	22	1.541	-43.22
J Melksham	0.775	23	1.536	-49.54
Team Rating	58.25		71.19	-18.18
Top 6	23.58		26.28	-10.29
Bottom 6	8.28		9.26	-10.64

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited July 24, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[DeeZone 7,821]

Thanks DD those figures show just how good the Crows were, their pressure and hard offensive running really dampened our effectiveness But we were still good enough to get over the line. !!!

[Demon Dynasty 15,637]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 19, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Three key aspects that if we can sort them we give ourselves a VG chance of making another PF, and who knows from there...

1.  The obvious one is getting Clarry back and somewhere near or at his best top line levels.

2.  Solve the Steven May mystery.  Might only be a mystery outside the four walls and he is just coming off what has been an amazing two years of AA level form, which is unsustainable given his age.  Alternatively this issue (ie;  age factor) and/or some sort of physical hindrance that us outsiders are unaware of.

If it's the latter then IMHO we seriously need to attempt to get him back towards the 21/22 AA levels we saw from the champ by carefully managing him through a fine tuning program vs the likes of North & the Hawks.

3.  Decide on who is taking the No.1 KTF role between the likes of BB (reportedly carrying a knee issue), Schache (unlikely as he seems out-of-favour with Goody & the FD even though in VG form at Casey the last few months) and/or (as a huge outside chance) maybe Macca if he can recover and find form/fitness prior to finals.  He is due back in terms of full training next week so we shall see.

Alternatively if none of those talls are serious medium-term options and/or too risky to plan as regulars coming in to finals, then we need to back in one of either Smith or Petty to play as the quasi Tall-Medium forward.  Using the one we aren't selecting in this role as the sub.

Tomlinson is in career best form.  He can handle the Petty role with ease and may well be the better of the two here right at this moment with Petty coming back from multiple injuries.  Between Tomo and Hibb we can manage nicely down back, selecting between either of those each week, depending on the oppo's tall / small mix and match ups.  For example it might be Hibb this week to take on the likes of Dusty... albeit i still think Hibb is another week at Casey away from hitting AFL level fitness.

An important phase coming up for Goody & Co. in a number of aspects.  Fingers crossed and good luck fellas.  Not easy!

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.285	1	5.320	-0.66	1	0
C Petracca	4.644	2	4.456	4.22	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.822	3	3.839	-0.44	5	2
T Rivers <	3.665	4	2.423	51.26	18	14
Jack Viney	3.632	5	3.971	-8.54	3	-2
J Jordon > <	3.569	6	3.164	12.80	9	3
Max Gawn	3.402	7	3.643	-6.62	8	1
Ed Langdon	3.204	8	3.109	3.06	11	3
Steven May	3.169	9	3.971	-20.20	3	-6
B Grundy	3.159	10	-	-	-	-
C Salem	3.139	11	3.363	-6.66	7	-4
Jake Lever	3.031	12	2.703	12.13	14	2
A Tomlinson	3.029	13	2.079	45.70	22	9
T Sparrow	2.915	15	2.665	9.38	16	1
L Hunter	2.918	14	-	-	-	-
Jake Bowey <	2.875	16	2.856	0.67	13	-3
J Harmes >	2.804	17	3.082	-9.02	12	-5
M Hibberd <	2.589	18	2.613	-0.92	17	-1
H Petty <	2.571	19	2.392	7.48	19	0
A N-Bullen	2.499	20	2.688	-7.03	15	-5
K Chandler <	2.451	21	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.281	22	2.118	7.70	21	-1
Judd McVee	2.246	23	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch	2.230	24	1.936	15.19	27	3
J V Rooyen	2.143	25	-	-	-	-
T McDonald	2.054	26	1.967	4.42	26	0
Ben Brown <	1.941	27	1.762	10.16	29	2
C Spargo > <	1.886	28	1.981	-4.80	24	-4
Joel Smith	1.798	29	2.239	-19.70	20	-9
T Woewodin	1.533	30	-	-	-	-
J Melksham >	1.407	31	1.947	-27.73	25	-6
J Schache *	1.375	32	-	-	-	-
B Laurie < > *	1.300	33	-	-	-	-
D Turner < *	1.075	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	70.65		69.48	1.69

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited July 25, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Deelightful Dee 152]

A solid result in Player Ratings (source: @Fryzigg via Twitter) for the Dees last week. Team rating of 9.11, only slitghly below our last 40 game average of 9.33 and more aligned to early season form. Angus, Kozzie and Ed had the biggest jump in pure rating points, although Tomlinson and Chandler's relative increases were the highest. 

Turning attention to this week's game and Richmond will pose a tough challenge. They are averaging a similar team score to us over the last 40 games (9.32) and have been particularly strong since Round 8 with only one really poor game.

I also had a look at how the players who played last week have performed over the last 40 games based on player ratings and considering games experience. It stood out to me that we have a big gap in experience between 80 and 140 games, whilst Richmond have a solid core in this range with Shai Bolton a standout. This may explain some of our inconsistency within games this year. Also, Richmond's experienced stars are still contribtuing strongly, particularly Dusty who has the 4th best average of the two teams. The below also highlights that the Tigers have a more even spread of strong contributors (8 averaging over 10) whilst we tend to rely on 5: Trac, Gawn, Viney, Angus and May. 

[Deelightful Dee 152]

Opportunity is here in #AFLTigersDees: top 2 for Dees, top 8 for Tiges. Dees contest is top notch, but turnover & forward half game is off the boil. Tiges' turnover game is 3rd recently with their attacking efficiency strong but defensively vulnerable. Who will take their chance?

[old55 21,383]

I did some historical percentage analysis.  On that basis at this stage, IMO Port probably can't win the flag.  Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton and Geelong probably can.

Year	Premier	Percentage	Rank
2022	Geelong	144.2	1
2021	Melbourne	130.8	3
2020	Richmond	129.9	3
2019	Richmond	113.7	5
2018	West Coast	121.4	4
2017	Richmond	118.3	4
2016	Western Bulldogs	115.4	7
2015	Hawthorn	158.4	1
2014	Hawthorn	140.8	2
2013	Hawthorn	135.7	1
2012	Sydney	140.6	2
2011	Geelong	157.4	2
2010	Collingwood	141.7	2
2009	Geelong	127.4	2
2008	Hawthorn	131.9	2
2007	Geelong	152.8	1
2006	West Coast	120.4	3
2005	Sydney	116.4	4
2004	Port Adelaide	132.4	2
2003	Brisbane	121.9	2
2002	Brisbane	136.7	1
2001	Brisbane	127.6	4
2000	Essendon	159.1	1
1999	North Melbourne	115.7	4
1998	Adelaide	123.2	1
1997	Adelaide	121.6	1
1996	North Melbourne	127.4	1
1995	Carlton	137.8	1
1994	West Coast	132.2	2
1993	Essendon	119.1	2
1992	West Coast	125.9	3
1991	Hawthorn	135.9	2
1990	Collingwood	130.2	2
	Mean	131.6	2.4
	Median	130.2	2
	Mode	127.4	2
	Maximum	159.1	1
	Minimum	113.7	7

Edited July 30, 2023 by old55

[WheeloRatings 959]

Melbourne v Richmond (Round 20, 2023)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20232007

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	71.1	67.4	+3.7
Kicking Efficiency	65.2	60.8	+4.4
Metres Gained	6300	5870	+430
Inside 50s	73	45	+28
Shots At Goal	33	24	+9
Shots Per Inside 50	45.2	53.3	-8.1
Contested Possessions	144	139	+5
Ground Ball Gets	93	96	-3
Intercepts	70	68	+2
Intercept Marks	18	20	-2
Centre Clearances	18	15	+3
Stoppage Clearances	31	25	+6
Contested Marks	13	6	+7
Marks Inside 50	20	10	+10
Hitouts	48	34	+14
Hitouts To Advantage	17	19	-2
Tackles	62	63	-1
Tackles Inside 50	14	10	+4
Def One On One Loss %	20.0	11.8	+8.2

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	183	151
2	170	206
3	188	190
4	187	176
Match	181	183

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average*
Jack Viney	28	62	54.5
Angus Brayshaw	29	52	33.1
Alex Neal-Bullen	16	42	46.4
Jake Bowey	13	39	21.6
Ed Langdon	15	37	28.2
Christian Petracca	15	35	48.2
James Jordon	18	35	23.8
James Harmes	17	34	36.0
Kysaiah Pickett	16	30	42.3
Trent Rivers	13	29	23.5
Harrison Petty	12	26	19.9
Kade Chandler	12	25	31.2
Jake Lever	13	25	15.7
Christian Salem	12	22	28.7
Taj Woewodin	14	22	23.0
Max Gawn	10	20	22.4
Judd McVee	9	19	18.5
Lachie Hunter	11	17	22.5
Steven May	7	13	14.7
Jake Melksham	6	11	13.4
Adam Tomlinson	4	10	13.9
Joel Smith	2	6	16.5
Jacob van Rooyen	2	5	22.1

* Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player.

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	57%	43%
2	44%	56%
3	62%	38%
4	76%	24%
Match	61%	39%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Category	For			Against			Diff
	G	B	T	G	B	T
Kick-in	0	0	0	0	0	0	+0
Centre Bounce	4	1	25	2	3	15	+10
Stoppage (Other)	8	3	51	7	1	43	+8
Turnover	8	6	54	6	4	40	+14

Category	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	0	2.6	0	2.2
Centre Bounce	25	11.6	15	7.2
Stoppage (Other)	51	24.2	43	22.4
Turnover	54	54.0	40	42.6

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season
Kick-in	D50	0	2.6	0	2.2
Centre Bounce	Centre	25	11.6	15	7.2
Stoppage (Other)	D50	0	0.7	0	2.3
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	6	2.9	6	1.4
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	32	12.5	12	6.9
Stoppage (Other)	F50	13	8.1	25	11.7
Turnover	D50	7	11.2	2	6.0
Turnover	Centre	12	7.8	6	6.7
Turnover	Wing	16	28.0	24	21.9
Turnover	F50	19	7.1	8	7.9

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season
D50	7	14.5	2	10.5
Centre	43	22.3	27	15.3
Wing	48	40.5	36	28.9
F50	32	15.1	33	19.7

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season
13	34.8	8	24.3

Shots at goal

Team	Shots	G	B	T	Acc.
General Play
Melbourne	12	5	4	34	41.7
Richmond	15	8	6	54	53.3
Set Position
Melbourne	21	15	4	94	71.4
Richmond	9	7	0	42	77.8

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2023 %	2022 %
Max Gawn	36	92	58.6	65.5
Jack Viney	32	82	71.3	74.6
Angus Brayshaw	29	74	31.4	16.0
Christian Petracca	27	69	62.9	74.6
James Jordon	15	38	28.0	0.2
James Harmes	9	23	26.9	14.6
Kysaiah Pickett	5	13	11.8	1.3
Jacob van Rooyen	3	8	6.4
Trent Rivers	0	0	3.6	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	2.7	3.5
Harrison Petty	0	0	0.8	0.0
Clayton Oliver			82.8	86.5
Brodie Grundy			55.7	83.7
Tom Sparrow			47.2	32.2
Tom McDonald			5.4	0.0
Josh Schache			0.0	13.8

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2023 %	2022 %
Max Gawn	92	82	52.4	57.8
Jacob van Rooyen	15	13	10.9
Harrison Petty	4	4	2.2	0.0
Christian Petracca	1	1	0.1	0.1
Joel Smith	0	0	0.1	0.0
Steven May	0	0	0.1	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0.1	0.0
Brodie Grundy			49.5	77.4
Tom McDonald			8.9	7.0
Josh Schache			6.7	13.4
Ben Brown			2.3	3.6
Clayton Oliver			0.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2023)	To Adv. % (2022)
Max Gawn	92	40	12	31.7	33.6
Jacob van Rooyen	15	5	4	29.8
Harrison Petty	4	3	1	25.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0	0.0
Brodie Grundy				30.8	30.2
Tom McDonald				25.0	33.3
Ben Brown				0.0	14.3
Josh Schache					33.3

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Ivan Soldo	87	26	15
Ben Miller	11	5	2
Noah Balta	7	2	2
Marlion Pickett	6	1	0
Dustin Martin	1	0	0

 

Expected scores (Champion Data)

119 - 83

[spirit of norm smith 13,068]

Wow. Stats on steroids 

I’m liking the simple stuff 

Goalkicking. ✅. set shots 15-4. In play 5-4. 
Clearances 49-40. ✅Centre clearances 18-15
Tackles 62-63 🤔 Tackles in fwd 50 14-10✅
Marks inside fwd50  20-10 ✅

1%ers 41-60  🤯

Best stat. 130-98. 😊😊😊😊

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,249]

Unsure if @Binman or you guys see these ratings but they’re my main POR for all things footy right now alongside Hoyne’s true player ratings, superb insight & measure!

 

 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,249]

Twitter account is @AFLlab

[Demon Dynasty 15,637]

Round 20, 2023 MCG - Tigers vs Demons

Let's all get on board the P-Train!!  Can't recall the last time i saw a full time forward in the top 5 rated players. 

Mad Max strikes again!

Some amazing results from many with the bottom 6 players also outperforming the bottom 6 season average.

The Team Rating only 6% off the season average.  Massive improvement on last week's -18%.  Great result against quality opposition in good form.

Our best efficiency up forward since the Kangas in Rnd 7.

Clarry back soon?  Imagine if the majority of this team all click together and Clarry starts hitting his straps... that would be something very special me thinks.

Demons

Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	18.15
% In50s Goal	27.40
Conversion %	66.70

Tigers Scoring Efficiency
Disposals Per Goal	22.27
% In50s Goal	33.30
Conversion %	65.20

Player	Rating	Rank	Season Rating to Prior Rnd	% Change vs Season Rating
Max Gawn	6.000	1	3.402	76.37
C Petracca	5.950	2	4.644	28.12
J Viney	4.975	3	3.632	36.98
T Rivers	4.400	4	3.665	20.05
H Petty	4.150	5	2.571	61.42
S May	3.675	6	3.169	15.97
Jake Lever	3.425	7	3.031	13.00
J Bowey	3.425	7	2.875	19.13
A Brayshaw	3.350	9	3.822	-12.35
L Hunter	2.875	10	2.918	-1.47
Ed Langdon	2.750	11	3.204	-14.17
J V Rooyen	2.625	12	2.143	22.49
J Harmes	2.625	12	2.804	-6.38
J McVee	2.300	14	2.246	2.40
A N-Bullen	2.100	15	2.499	-15.97
J Melksham	2.075	16	1.407	47.48
C Salem	2.050	17	3.139	-34.69
K Pickett	2.000	18	2.281	-12.32
J Jordon	1.675	19	3.569	-53.07
K Chandler	1.600	20	2.451	-34.72
J Smith > 40%	1.200	21	1.798	-33.26
T Woewodin	1.025	22	1.533	-33.14
A Tomlinson < 60%	0.325	23	3.029	-89.27
Team Rating	66.25		70.65	-6.23
Top 6	29.15		26.13	11.57
Bottom 6	9.55		9.21	3.73

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited July 31, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[DeeZone 7,821]

Thanks DD our top 8 plus JVR and Melksham really went up a few notches, some of those numbers are huge, unfortunately we also had a number of players that were right off the boil as well. Heaven help the opposition if we all get it together on the same day. Max’s numbers are insane.!!!

[Demon Dynasty 15,637]

10 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD our top 8 plus JVR and Melksham really went up a few notches, some of those numbers are huge, unfortunately we also had a number of players that were right off the boil as well. Heaven help the opposition if we all get it together on the same day. Max’s numbers are insane.!!!

That would be some game or even 'games' DZ. 

Imagine if we bring that sort of form from about 80% of the boys during finals 

[Demon Dynasty 15,637]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 20, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.285	1	5.320	-0.66	1	0
C Petracca	4.713	2	4.456	5.77	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.797	3	3.839	-1.09	5	2
Jack Viney	3.707	4	3.971	-6.65	3	-1
T Rivers <	3.705	5	2.423	52.91	18	13
Max Gawn	3.575	6	3.643	-1.87	8	2
J Jordon > <	3.383	7	3.164	6.92	9	2
Steven May	3.199	8	3.971	-19.44	3	-5
Ed Langdon	3.179	9	3.109	2.25	11	2
B Grundy	3.159	10	-	-	-	-
Jake Lever	3.053	11	2.703	12.95	14	3
C Salem	3.030	12	3.363	-9.90	7	-5
T Sparrow	2.915	13	2.665	9.38	16	3
L Hunter	2.915	13	-	-	-	-
Jake Bowey <	2.907	15	2.856	1.79	13	-2
A Tomlinson <	2.803	16	2.079	34.82	22	6
J Harmes >	2.772	17	3.082	-10.06	12	-5
H Petty <	2.707	18	2.392	13.17	19	1
M Hibberd <	2.589	19	2.613	-0.92	17	-2
A N-Bullen	2.478	20	2.688	-7.81	15	-5
K Chandler <	2.400	21	-	-	-	-
K Pickett	2.265	22	2.118	6.94	21	-1
Judd McVee	2.249	23	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch <	2.230	24	1.936	15.19	27	3
J V Rooyen	2.175	25	-	-	-	-
T McDonald	2.054	26	1.967	4.42	26	0
Ben Brown <	1.941	27	1.762	10.16	29	2
Joel Smith >	1.892	28	2.239	-15.50	20	-8
C Spargo > <	1.886	29	1.981	-4.80	24	-5
J Melksham >	1.504	30	1.947	-22.75	25	-5
T Woewodin	1.406	31	-	-	-	-
J Schache *	1.375	32	-	-	-	-
B Laurie < > *	1.300	33	-	-	-	-
D Turner < *	1.075	34	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	70.54		69.48	1.52

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

> Subbed In at least once or more (player rating could be comprised somewhat)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited August 1, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[old55 21,383]

Good CBAs attendance resource:

https://dailyfantasyrankings.com.au/resources/afl/cba.php

[Deelightful Dee 152]

Wow, what a game by the Dees to overcome the Tiges! Based on Champion Data Player Ratings, that was our best game since the North Melbourne smashing in Rd 7 and our 3rd best for the season, reaching 10.93 as a team. An interesting note is that Richmond scored 9.91 which is extremely high for a losing team (2nd highest for a losing team for the round behind Essendon's score of 10.28) and higher than for of the winning teams for the round.

Best performers for the Dees aligned to the test with Petty, Gawn and Melsham in the top 3 whilst Rivers was a bit of a surprise to me, coming 4th. 

For the upcoming game vs North Melbourne, the past ratings indicate this should be a comfortable win for the Dees with a 40 game average of 9.29 compared to North of 7.87. 

In terms of looking at the teams from last round, North have a lot of inexperienced players with lower ratings across their last 40 games than Melbourne. Their key players are Goldstein (not ideal for the future), LDU, Simpkin, Thomas and Sheezel (unbelievable for a 19 game player). If the Deescan minimise the impact of most of these players I'd be very surprised if North have the depth to replace their usual output.

[binman 38,612]

4 hours ago, Deelightful Dee said:

Wow, what a game by the Dees to overcome the Tiges! Based on Champion Data Player Ratings, that was our best game since the North Melbourne smashing in Rd 7 and our 3rd best for the season, reaching 10.93 as a team. An interesting note is that Richmond scored 9.91 which is extremely high for a losing team (2nd highest for a losing team for the round behind Essendon's score of 10.28) and higher than for of the winning teams for the round.

Best performers for the Dees aligned to the test with Petty, Gawn and Melsham in the top 3 whilst Rivers was a bit of a surprise to me, coming 4th. 

For the upcoming game vs North Melbourne, the past ratings indicate this should be a comfortable win for the Dees with a 40 game average of 9.29 compared to North of 7.87. 

In terms of looking at the teams from last round, North have a lot of inexperienced players with lower ratings across their last 40 games than Melbourne. Their key players are Goldstein (not ideal for the future), LDU, Simpkin, Thomas and Sheezel (unbelievable for a 19 game player). If the Deescan minimise the impact of most of these players I'd be very surprised if North have the depth to replace their usual output.

Some random reflections of this terrific data:

• The ratings reflect what the eyes said - a super high quality game, with both teams playing out of their skin
• The tigers are outsiders against the dogs at Marvel, but that ratings suggests they should almost go in as favs given the dogs gave up a half time 5 goal lead in must win game (albeit against team, the giants, who i really rate) - i happened to just listen to the catch up of Hoyne from Champion Data on (i really like his analysis - in large part because i agree with most of it!) and he made the point it is not who you play, its how you play
• Whilst the tigers played great, their bets players fell in a hole in the last q - and for me it is further evidence of how critical fitness is and the relationship between player ratings and fitness (in the sense that i'm sure players like Soldo and Dusty's ratings would have fallen off  cliff in the last because they barely touched it and they looked completely gassed
• Related to the above point the high ratings in this game tracks with the graph you put up DD with the player ratings mirroring our loading phases in 2021, 2022 and again this year (ie great rounds 1-9, poor middle of the season, on the rise as we approach finals) 
• I'm surprised at how low Langer's ratings for this game
• Nibbler (who by the by is our 13th highest ranked player, which might surprise many) keeps on keeping on
• I love this data - thanks so much for going to the effort of posting it (same goes for Wheelo and Demon Dynasty)  

[Deelightful Dee 152]

On 7/19/2023 at 8:37 PM, binman said:

That is fascinating observation about the correlation between oppo mark differential and score.

One of the questions for the podcast is what happened in the second and third quarter in terms of the lions getting on top.

I watched the replay with that question in mind, and part of my answer was that the Lions really stretched the G and used the switch more than in any game since i could recall since the first half of 2022 when teams were desperately looking for ways to get past our defence the first Port game being the best example.

Teams gave up on that model because it became very clear that going fast was the only way to consistently trouble our defence because it makes it hard for  it to get set. Credit to McRae because he obviously gerried to this before the rest of the comp and made fast ball movement the foundation of their method. 

But Brisbane used a variation of the slow ball movement and keepings off method teams use in the 2022.  They switched and chipped it around - which of course involves lots of uncontested marks. But they didn't go overboard on that and combined it with incisive 20 -30 metre kicks going forward to lead up players. Again lots of uncontested marks.

And we seemed to allow many of these kicks - partic the switch kicks (which we always do). Our defence was set deeper than against the Pies, in part becuase Danhiher dragged May back to goal. And unlike against the Blues and Pies we didn't seem to look create density and congestion, and didn't apply much frontal pressure, or close down space. So there was a lot of space - which the Lions took advantage of with lots of sharp passes.

My feeling is part of the strategy was to separate our key defenders to isolate May and Lever one out (because they are both vulnerable one on one i reckon, partic lever) and limit the ability of lever, may and Petty to intercept mark - which is key driver of our scoring.  

The strategy worked really well, as not only did it blunt May, Lever and petty and give their tall forwards good one on one looks, they were able to tic tac over our zone wit kicks and create overlap that way. The goal Ashcroft kick was the perfect example of what i mean.  I';; check the stats for our previous three games against the Lions, but my gut feel is their uncontested marks numbers would have bene high in those games too - and its worth noting they are one of the few teams who have been able to regularly open us up. 

Another interesting part of all that using uncontested marks is clearly as they they have used specifically for the dees. It is it likely the Pies would try and follow suit? I din think so becuase every person and their dog have them on a pedestal so their conceit would be they don't need to try such a strategy to beat us. 

 

 

 

 

Really interested in this take @binman, so I did some reasinably simple statisticial correlation analysis on the stats I can obtain and identified some counter-intuitive, unexpected relationships between the margin in our game and individual stats.

I don't have uncontested mark data, but work it our by subtracting contested marks from total marks. But just so I can get this out before this week's game, I decided to work with total marks. The below table shows our games this year, the value of some key stats and the correlation between the key stats and the game margin. A simple explanation of correlation is that is isthe statistical relationship between the two values. It measures the extent to which two values are linearly related. For example, if both values change at the same rate (one value is 2, 4, 6, 8 and the other value is 1, 2, 3, 4) the correlation would be 1. In the below, it can be seen that the mark differntial and margin are 38.1% correlated, whilst our pure marks in a round are 44.1% correlated and opposition marks in a round are only 20.7% correlated with margin. 

Unsurprisingly, the goal difference in a round is 98.6% correlated, but what surprised me is that #2 is metres gained diffence in a round with a 92.6% correlation with the next two highest correlations being supercoach and supercoach difference both coming in at 88.9%. So taking last week's game, we had a 133 more metres gained than the Tigers at 3/4 time and ended up with 430 by the final siren. In terms of supercoach difference, we were 42 more at 3/4 time and finished 206 ahead. So keeping an eye on these stats through the game, may be the best predictor of whether we'll win or lose!

[binman 38,612]

Digesting now.......

[jnrmac 19,091]

55 minutes ago, Deelightful Dee said:

 . So taking last week's game, we had a 133 more metres gained than the Tigers at 3/4 time and ended up with 430 by the final siren. In terms of supercoach difference, we were 42 more at 3/4 time and finished 206 ahead. So keeping an eye on these stats through the game, may be the best predictor of whether we'll win or lose!

Doesn't supercoach weight last quarters higher. That would skew the numbers. 

[Deelightful Dee 152]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Doesn't supercoach weight last quarters higher. That would skew the numbers. 

True, although noticing the difference as the game progresses is more what I was thinking to help provide an indication as to how likely we are to win

[old55 21,383]

Is player distance covered per game across the season available anywhere?  I searched for "Telstra Tracker 2023" but didn't get anything useful,  Thanks ...

[Deelightful Dee 152]

Top 2 up for grabs in #AFLNorthDees! Dees have a big advantage in most areas, with North having better pressure and defence over the last 5 weeks. Can the Dees take this opportunity to control top 2 and a home final?